Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[HoonDing]

They need to save their toys for Taiwan.

[Gfted1]

2 hours ago, HoonDing said:

They need to save their toys for Taiwan.

We can just ask Japan to take over their entire country over the weekend.

[Gorth]

I'm sure Xi would love to "bleed the west dry" of hardware, ordnance and ammunition to enable a grab for Taiwan unopposed by outside forces (I don't think Taiwan will just roll over on their back though). But I can see a strategic incentive in it for China to support the Russian "special military operation" *) efforts in the west.

 

*) This is how it's being sold in Chinese state media too

[xzar_monty]

I wonder if this is a real development or not:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-current-frontlines-sources-say-2024-05-24/

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I wonder if this is a real development or not:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-current-frontlines-sources-say-2024-05-24/

Nah,  I dont believe anything Putin  says or we  hear what he  apparently says

I will believe it when I see Russia doing it

Putin can go public anytime and  say " we  pausing the war  to talk peace "

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I wonder if this is a real development or not:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-current-frontlines-sources-say-2024-05-24/

It was only few days ago, when he was dismissing by Macron proposed olympic ceasefire, as ridiculous. So as I see it, if he asks for ceasefire now, it’s because he need to replenish some of the completely exhausted battalions, before UA gets the first F16s, which are allowed to hit targets in Russia, and he feels, he might lose conquered areas

[Malcador]

F-16s are that big of a game changer ?

[Chilloutman]

21 minutes ago, Malcador said:

F-16s are that big of a game changer ?

can be, but i doubt it. its not about F-16s, its about no flight zone above warzone and I doubt they will have enough and that capable to neutralize russian PVO and airforce

[HoonDing]

Only if they also clone Tom Cruise

[Zoraptor]

10 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I wonder if this is a real development or not:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-current-frontlines-sources-say-2024-05-24/

It... isn't. Specifically the headline's phrasing is inaccurate, and while it implies it's an urgent, new, and significant change of policy it, well, isn't.

Not a new development? NYT Dec 2023 "Putin Quietly Signals He's Open to a Cease Fire in Ukraine". Or back even further than that: October 2022. And of course the negotiations that actually happened in Turkey.

Inaccurate phrasing? Every previous statement has them being 'open to negotiations' or similar, see Peskov's quotes from both the articles above. That's a far cry from 'wanting' a 'ceasefire', all the urgency has been added by the editor into the title. Indeed, the body text of the Reuters article itself says much the same and actually says that Putin wants negotiations, at best interpretation and for a fairly broad definition of 'want'. Peskov's official statements on the matter are also specifically that Russia is open to negotiation. Note that the Reuters paraphrase of Peskov's response to the question they put to him- presumably deliberately- leaves out the 'open to negotiations' part of it, but it is included on other articles on their article. Compare:

"Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov, in response to a request for comment, said the country did not want “eternal war.”" from Reuters with

"Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Reuters Russia was open to talks and that Putin did not want "eternal war."" from the Newsweek article. Pretty obvious Reuters left the first bit out so they could keep the headline and get the hits.

[Mamoulian War]

15 hours ago, Malcador said:

F-16s are that big of a game changer ?

 

15 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

can be, but i doubt it. its not about F-16s, its about no flight zone above warzone and I doubt they will have enough and that capable to neutralize russian PVO and airforce

It might or not. We'll see how they will handle them. The thing is, they will be use some longer range munition with them, which is still incompatible with SU-25s, which they are currently using. The biggest thing might really be maintaining No Fly Zone over most of the Ukraine, as the current most dangerous thing Russia has, according to many soldiers directly from battlefield, are their FAB glide bombs. PVO = Air defense in Czech or Slovak language, is really the biggest enemy for these F16s, but you have probably seen, that in the last two weeks, UA used dozens of newly acquired ATACMS to obliterate a big chunk of them all around Crimea and Donbas.
 

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukrainian-forces-capture-russia-s-advanced-t-90m-tank-game-changer/ar-BB1n1XyR

Its definitely not  a  game changer , I get annoyed by the sensationalized  headlines from both sides,  but its interesting and  useful for Ukraine and the West  for analysis? 

 

 

 

[kanisatha]

https://apnews.com/article/estonia-russia-buoys-border-10b99970ed538ce1684bf88c6384a1ec

Hope you guys in the Baltics are getting ready. You're up next!!

[kanisatha]

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-solovyov-nato-warsaw-helsinki-will-ours-russia-ukraine-war-1901936

LOL

What say you Poles and Finns?

[Chilloutman]

like anyone cares what this clown is saying

[Malcador]

"We can't say that all the missiles missed" but yet it is embarrassing, heh.  FB, the guy people quote at least when it suits them. claims 5 out of 7 intercepted.

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukrainian-forces-capture-russia-s-advanced-t-90m-tank-game-changer/ar-BB1n1XyR

Its definitely not  a  game changer , I get annoyed by the sensationalized  headlines from both sides,  but its interesting and  useful for Ukraine and the West  for analysis?

Ah, had thought this was old news, but was not a T-90M that was in the US a year or two ago.  Not sure it's really that big a deal.

 

Edited May 25 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Ukraine captured the first T-90M on May 4th. May 4th 2022 though. At least a couple more during their Kharkov offensive too, iirc, so not a new development.

13 minutes ago, Malcador said:

"We can't say that all the missiles missed" but yet it is embarrassing, heh.  FB, the guy people quote at least when it suits them. claims 5 out of 7 intercepted.

Technically the 5/7 isn't FB's ('blogger' Fighterbomber, not facebook for anyone confused) claim but the Russian MoDs (?)

"There were officially 7 missiles, 5 of them were shot down, 1 worked".

Personally I think he sounds skeptical of that claim but mileage will certainly vary there given it's translated and FB is a bit, uh, idiomatic and restricted (for those not familiar with him he criticises the 'Laotian' military rather a lot. Coincidentally Vientienne makes exactly the same mistakes Moscow does)

[Malcador]

And right on cue the Russians bombed a store.

[Mamoulian War]

Because they “want” a ceasefire so badly

[BruceVC]

Good old  friendly Sweden, doing the right thing again 

 

 

[Malcador]

I guess is a precedent, not like the US - the one they're really begging - is going to cave on that pressure. 

[kanisatha]

19 hours ago, Malcador said:

I guess is a precedent, not like the US - the one they're really begging - is going to cave on that pressure. 

According to a recent Politico story, the "allow" side is winning in the vigorous internal debate within the Administration on this issue.

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, kanisatha said:

According to a recent Politico story, the "allow" side is winning in the vigorous internal debate within the Administration on this issue.

Guess things must be going rough for Ukraine, I guess conveniently is all the benefactors' fault. Can't really see Kharkiv as the impetus for this, RF has been doing more damage via air raids and such for a while.

I assume all the big talkers in the Baltics and Poland will now send some as well.

Edited May 27 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

It's probably the uncommitted troops on the northern border giving them conniptions rather than the relatively few actually committed. That was always going to be the problem with the RDK and pals' raids, not like all those Russian troops could be relied upon to just sit there twiddling their thumbs waiting for a new incursion. And since the strategic initiative seems to have shifted to Russia in at least the medium term they get to decide where and when to attack.

There being NATO member countries' military personnel in Ukraine already was more or less confirmed by Germany last year (?) as their justification for not sending Taurus was not wanting to send any personnel themselves. Even if France sent people it'd be no actual change, if they're just instructors and not the Foreign Legion or whoever. Plus, the obligatory Soon™ for when they'd get there, (albeit that seems to be editorial and not from Syrski from what I've seen).

[BruceVC]

13 hours ago, Malcador said:

Guess things must be going rough for Ukraine, I guess conveniently is all the benefactors' fault. Can't really see Kharkiv as the impetus for this, RF has been doing more damage via air raids and such for a while.

I assume all the big talkers in the Baltics and Poland will now send some as well.

Military instructors is not the same as troops being deployed. There are US advisors and trainers in certain African and ME countries, like Green Berets, and thats not  the same as the US deploying its military to these specific regions

We will know when  any country decides to deploy its military to Ukraine because they will have to announce it domestically or they will face serious political criticism if and when body bags come home

And I think it matters we dont feed the exaggerated Russian propaganda that " Russia is  fighting NATO\US" in Ukraine

Russia is fighting Ukraine with military aid from the NATO\US 

Thats not the same as any NATO country deploying its military personnel to Ukraine