Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[xzar_monty]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Patrushev is one of the biggest influences on Putin few people have heard of and very highly trusted.

Few people have heard of? How's that?

[Zoraptor]

Well, if you polled the general public for name recognition Patrushev would almost certainly be behind even someone like Dugin. Who it isn't even certain has actually met Putin, let alone influenced him. Certainly behind Lavrov/ Medvedev/ Shoigu/ Prigozhin/ Gerasimov/ Zakharova/ Mishustin who all have (had for Prigo) fairly prominent public roles. If you know, say, who the head of the FSB is and what the SVR is without looking them up you'd know who Patrushev is; but then that requires more than passing familiarity. If you don't...

(yes, any article on Putin's inner circle isn't complete without a prominent mention of Patrushev. Those are by their nature infrequent though, and since he's 'quiet' even those who read them will still tend to remember the forementioned people a lot more)

[Mamoulian War]

18 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Well, they don't necessarily have to "take" the city. They just need to encircle it and then lay seige to it. They themselves are going to realize that if the point is to trade it away, then it makes no sense to expend the kind of resources it would take from them to capture the city. But it also keeps open the possibility that the Ukrainian defenses in the city simply collapse.

Forcing the Ukrainian side to accept defeat/surrender on Russia's terms is ultimately the end-game for Russia. Their first strategy to accomplish this end-game was to try and take a huge swath of Ukraine, essentially all of Ukraine east of and including Kiev, and force surrender in this way. That did not work. Their second strategy was to try and coerce the Ukrainian side by threatening to escalate to the use of tactical nukes. That also didn't work, mainly because of the external pressure on the Russians, including even from their friends. Now this is their third plan for coercing Ukraine's surrender, born from their battlefield succeses in eastern Ukraine recently. And this plan is the one that has a really good chance of succeeding, especially because Ukraine's Western allies are "going wobbly" (to use a line from Thatcher back in the day), and because within Ukraine itself we now have political differences over war strategy and Zelenskiy is no longer seen as Superman.

According to various sources, RU has accumulated aprox 32000 men around Kharkiv. Looking back at 2022, when they had probably same number of men and the advantage of surprise, and less armed and trained UA army, and were not able to encircle the city for more than half year. Do you think they might have a better chance now? Especially when you consider, that they lost more than 17000 men trying to surround Avdiivka.

 

edit: General staff of UA has also posted a new record from yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02AG84aiQvdw761cD5wYf4EFXti2JaqUViGkyhPFhHixwXtitp9GSGVa9itPdzPvFul

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Few people have heard of? How's that?

I have never of him but I dont follow up of Putins inner circle or prominent Russian politicians 

I had heard of Shoigu but only when the war started 

[kanisatha]

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

According to various sources, RU has accumulated aprox 32000 men around Kharkiv. Looking back at 2022, when they had probably same number of men and the advantage of surprise, and less armed and trained UA army, and were not able to encircle the city for more than half year. Do you think they might have a better chance now? Especially when you consider, that they lost more than 17000 men trying to surround Avdiivka.

Yes I do, unfortunately, because the Russian army is now actaully bigger in available combat units than it was in 2022, and those units are now experienced and battle-hardened. But most importantly, they have massive amounts of artillery available (which they have already used very effectively to clear out Ukrainian defenses in several border villages around Khar'kiv) whereas Ukraine's artillery capability, heavily outnumbered to begin with, is relatively nonconsequential because they've run out of munitions.

[Malcador]

And Butusov has always been pretty pessimistic, in past.

 

[Zoraptor]

Artillery wise Ukraine has also outright lost a lot of systems. 40% of donated m777 and m109s if you go by Oryx (more if you go by Lostarmour, which reflects the biases involved). Even higher proportion of Krabs most likely. Caesar and PzH not so much, but they're also there in far fewer numbers- and PzH allegedly isn't on the front line much due to reliability issues.

(Ukraine has a lot of issues to deal with- less motivated troops, better Russian tactics/ responses, better Russian systems and the Russians catching up/ surpassing them in drones- but the biggest problem for Ukraine in terms of sheer balance are the glide bombs. Doesn't seem any accident that the Russians have been advancing constantly- slowly- since they've been in significant use. Building fortifications to defend against 152/155mm shells with ~10kg of HE is relatively easy, not so much when it's 320kg. Especially so when there are thermobaric variants and for the really tough nuts F/K/ODAB1500s. Not the sort of tactics which will get you much in the way of plaudits for genius or flair, but effective and without an effective counter. And all the comments from Ukrainians on the ground in places like Avdiivka have implied that they're absolutely awful for morale in addition to the physical damage done. HiMARS/ ATACMS/ Storm Scalps/ JDAMs etc might garner the upvotes on twitter or likes on reddit but they aren't being used anywhere near the 70-100 per day that the UMPKs are. Maybe... 1% of that, which is probably generous, and only the JDAMs have anywhere near equivalent scale. Apart from that... the very occasional Tochka or Krim and not much else)

[Malcador]

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/estonia-seriously-discussing-sending-troops-to-rear-jobs-in-ukraine-official/

More "hold me back, bros" type talk from Baltics.

[Mamoulian War]

Another Shoigu’s lap dog has been arrested.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/14/7455684/

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Another Shoigu’s lap dog has been arrested.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/14/7455684/

Whats with all these recent arrests in Russia, I heard its something to do with corruption within the  Russian arms industry and the state  being overcharged and the economic impact on the fiscus?

Shoigu's replacement is an economist?

[Mamoulian War]

21 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Whats with all these recent arrests in Russia, I heard its something to do with corruption within the  Russian arms industry and the state  being overcharged and the economic impact on the fiscus?

Shoigu's replacement is an economist?

Whenever is someone in Russia charged by corruption, it means, that he had dared to steal from a booty of someone above him

[pmp10]

Interesting piece on Shoigu's replacement.

Tweet of note from it:

Looks like attrition war for years to come.

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 5/13/2024 at 4:19 PM, kanisatha said:

Yes I do, unfortunately, because the Russian army is now actaully bigger in available combat units than it was in 2022, and those units are now experienced and battle-hardened. But most importantly, they have massive amounts of artillery available (which they have already used very effectively to clear out Ukrainian defenses in several border villages around Khar'kiv) whereas Ukraine's artillery capability, heavily outnumbered to begin with, is relatively nonconsequential because they've run out of munitions.

Looks like we start to have first partially good news from Kharkiv front. Russian milbloggers are starting to complain about badly trained units on this front, who lack even basic knowledge of proper formations to have a chance to avoid drone strikes. So it looks like, all the experienced and battle-hardened units are at different fronts, or already dead

 

https://t.me/philologist_zov/965

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Interesting piece on Shoigu's replacement.

Tweet of note from it:

Looks like attrition war for years to come.

 

Now that the information speculations have settled down a little bit and more details have been revealed, The most interesting thing in this Grand Reshuffle is the “Sacking” of above mentioned Patrushev. He was once considered as a successor to Putin, and now, he has been appointed as Putin’s aide. Shoigu, unlike his lapdogs (two more of them has been reportedly arrested), has been moved to similarily powerful position, but Patrushev’s new position is considered as a big demotion.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-appoints-patrushev-dyumin-kremlin-aides-2024-05-14/

 

[Malcador]

Clearly this is NATO's fault.

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Interesting piece on Shoigu's replacement.

Tweet of note from it:

Looks like attrition war for years to come.

 

I read that article and I found it interesting. The frustrating reality is we just know what really motivates Russia or Putin around these decisions. There is lots of informed and accurate guesses but nothing that  is  ever really confirmed 

But if this is  true its about economic attrition around production  and  not a  decisive Russian military victory. And its not  a bad strategy and  it means the West will have to continue to support Ukraine with aid which really matters and is not necessarily guaranteed if you think about the delayed US  aid 

So the US would be critical in  " out lasting " Russia in this proposed economic attrition 

 

 

 

 

[ShadySands]

They just have to wait until Trump wins and the US will almost assuredly pull support.

[Zoraptor]

Dunno about that, after all the US didn't actually start sending lethal aid to Ukraine under either Obama or Biden, it was the guy in the middle who did that. He'd have put pressure on Ukraine to have made a permanent settlement of some sort for sure, but he'd also have put pressure on Putin to accept it. Whether that would have been worse for the country than what it has now is an open question, but probably not. It would probably have been better for the US too in retrospect.

11 hours ago, Malcador said:

Clearly this is NATO's fault.

Nope, clearly Putin's fault, to whit "..no wonder Putin sought to weaponise corruption in Ukraine" -- Anthony Blinken.

Pretty much sums up current US diplomacy that that's an actual factual quote rather than made up to make him look silly.

[ShadySands]

Maybe but it was well before the war* and he wanted something from Ukraine. The Republican party, especially at the fringes, is pushing back pretty hard on Ukrainian aid.

*the full invasion, I mean. Not Crimea and all the stuff that was going on in the east.

Edited May 16 by ShadySands

[Gorth]

The Biden family is probably still miffed, that Russia ruined their lucrative extra income (the Biden family's 6.5 million dollars received from Ukrainian sources). You bet the Bidens will support Ukraine and by default Trump will support his own backer, Putin? Who needs Chinese meddling in the first place?

 

Edit: Speaking of China and the Bidens... from house.gov oversight committee "The total amount from China, specifically with CEFC and their related entities, to the Biden family and their associates is over $8 million". No wonder he isn't interested in carrying on Trumps trade war with China

 

edit2: link to above numbers https://oversight.house.gov/the-bidens-influence-peddling-timeline/

 

[Zoraptor]

Eh, I'm no fan of Joe Biden but that is a bluntly partisan report.

I don't think there's any doubt that Hunter Biden regularly trades his status as Joe Biden's son for money, but then it's also obvious Joe Biden cannot control Hunter's behaviour.

[HoonDing]

Of course Drump is also horrible, but it will still be satisfying to see that doormat lose in November.

Edited May 16 by HoonDing

[xzar_monty]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I don't think there's any doubt that Hunter Biden regularly trades his status as Joe Biden's son for money, but then it's also obvious Joe Biden cannot control Hunter's behaviour.

Fathers and sons, indeed. And isn't there a famous Russian novel by that title, too...

I worked for a few months on a project dealing with the history of the conflict, and the whole Biden family saga is complex, convoluted and ugly. Joe isn't the main culprit, though, at least as far as I know.

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, ShadySands said:

Maybe but it was well before the war* and he wanted something from Ukraine. The Republican party, especially at the fringes, is pushing back pretty hard on Ukrainian aid.

*the full invasion, I mean. Not Crimea and all the stuff that was going on in the east.

This is really what my point is, the US needs to continue to provide aid to Ukraine  if its going to "out last " Russia

The EU provides aid but its not enough. The US can afford the aid but thats not the issue, its the requirement that aid packages must be approved in both the House and Senate and thats where the potential problem comes with approval 

You can see from the last aid packages and how representatives from both parties voted

 

• The House : 311 votes to 112 for the aid (While all 210 Democrats voted in favour, more Republicans were against the legislation than in favour of it, 112 to 101)
• The Senate : The package, which passed on a 79-18 bipartisan vote (The funding passed with the support of 46 Democrats, 31 Republicans and 2 independents, following hours of speeches by senators. Two Democrats, 15 Republicans and one independent opposed it. Three GOP senators — Rand Paul of Kentucky, Tim Scott of South Carolina and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama — didn’t vote)

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/politics/senate-vote-israel-ukraine-aid-dg/index.html#:~:text=The funding passed with the,Alabama — didn't vote.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68848277

So you right thats its a group of GOP members in the House that are basically opposed to Ukraine aid but its 55% of them and then the GOP in the Senate support aid so thats not an issue

But going forward we dont know how this is going to change and we dont know what Trump is going to do if he wins the election. He has influence on the GOP and there votes could change based on what he  tells them to do 

This is the greatest risk to Ukraine defending against  the Russian invasion and " out lasting " Russia , its not that many people in Congress dont support Ukraine or that the US doesnt have the resources . They do but we dont know how future votes are going to go because it depends on the individual representatives in Congress and these votes get influenced by other  things like the border crisis or aid to Israel 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gorth]

10 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The US can afford the aid but thats not the issue

This is probably a topic for a different thread, but can the US really afford it? Not just aid to Ukraine, but the spending in general. That debt ceiling (holding up an asteroid sized debt) may turn all card house on the country. We would have to revise history and call the end of the cold war a delayed draw.