Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Mamoulian War]

25 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Sounds smart, better to sell than give for free. Especially as a smaller country.

Free money from the US is on hold for a while longer - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/us/politics/johnson-biden-border-ukraine.html?unlocked_article_code=1.OU0.BImv.tbWjn4EYoVWe&smid=url-share

I'd bet they'd have cleared this up before the end of January, guess that was a bust.

Well it’s not about smartness, it’s about their greed and corruption. If they could get away with it, they would be selling weapons to Russia and North Korea as well… I would not be surprised, if in few years, some investigation journalist would find some off-shore companies linked to them, which are selling microchips for Russian Missiles…

[Zoraptor]

Selling chips for Russian missiles might actually be a net positive if the Russians keep shooting down their own planes...

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Well it’s not about smartness, it’s about their greed and corruption. If they could get away with it, they would be selling weapons to Russia and North Korea as well… I would not be surprised, if in few years, some investigation journalist would find some off-shore companies linked to them, which are selling microchips for Russian Missiles…

Well selling to both sides in a war would be smart business as well...

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Selling chips for Russian missiles might actually be a net positive if the Russians keep shooting down their own planes...

And people say Russian AD is crap, pfft.

[Mamoulian War]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/16/ukrainian-crews-set-a-complex-missile-trap-for-russias-best-radar-plane/?sh=44d5122c3566

[Malcador]

Relying on Tom Cooper is....suspect.

[Zoraptor]

Haha yes. Not just Tom Cooper, but David "City of Robotyne (pop74)" Axe relying on Cooper. Far, far more likely to be friendly fire. Not like either side has a particularly good record so far as that is concerned.

(You can discount two Axe's of his possibilities out of hand for not having the range. The S-300 would literally have had to be driven through Russian lines to hit an A-50 over the Sea of Azov in most places and even at the closest point could barely hit the coast from the frontline. Seems plausible if you read wikipedia, but Ukraine only has up to 55R missiles, and that's 75km range. Pac-3 would have to be fired well within standard artillery range to hit just off the coast plus the damage to the IL-22 is clearly not from a hard kill (impact) system like a Pac-3 but from airburst/ proximity. So not that either. That only leaves Pac-2. Even there the A-50 out ranges even the Pac-2 twice over according to Axe's own figures, so is well able to 'see' northern Crimea yet remain our of range. The suggested scenario would at minimum have the Patriot within Tornado and Lancet range, and the Patriot is an... unwieldy system, for an ambush. This wouldn't be toodling a full system some tens of km from Kiev to fire at aircraft over Bryansk or whatever, it'd be moving it hundreds of km into Tornado and Lancet range on a hope.

OTOH, S-200 would be a possibility. Ukraine has them and has been using them again, they have a lot more range than anything else they have and the right warhead. While they're also ancient, Syrian ones have shot down a F-16 and allegedly hit a F-35 in recent years; an A-50 would be an easy target compared to them)

Edited January 18 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

 

[pmp10]

Ukraine has started hitting Russian energy infrastructure with domestic made drones.
The west won't like this but I guess it's about the last escalation option that Ukraine has. 

[Malcador]

Not sure the West will disapprove, Ukrainians doing it with their own stuff, for once.

[kanisatha]

About damn time.

And if Western leaders are sincere (LOL) about their anti-fossil fuels rhetoric, they should be supporting and aiding this, because it is precisely Russia's undiminished energy sales that have made Western sanctions against them so very pathetic.

[Mamoulian War]

I have not find it in a serious news yet, but some of them are claiming, that Putin signed decree, making the sale of Alaska as illegal De facto, he decided to annex part of USA, and considers this land as occupied now

Has anyone a link to a credible source about this?

[Malcador]

Sushko says it insinuates, and he's full of crap more often than not. So doubt it.

[Gfted1]

Lol, then they would REALLY get their asses kicked.

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Sushko says it insinuates, and he's full of crap more often than not. So doubt it.

I agree with Sushko’s trustworthiness, but I got it from somewhere else. That does not mean, it was not taken as a news from him Darth Putin mentioned it today as well though, but still no relevant source

[kanisatha]

15 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

I have not find it in a serious news yet, but some of them are claiming, that Putin signed decree, making the sale of Alaska as illegal De facto, he decided to annex part of USA, and considers this land as occupied now

Has anyone a link to a credible source about this?

Please, please, please Mr. Putin the Great, send your troops to Alaska. The people of Alaska, oppressed by the nazis as they are, will surely welcome your troops with flowers!!!

[BruceVC]

30 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Please, please, please Mr. Putin the Great, send your troops to Alaska. The people of Alaska, oppressed by the nazis as they are, will surely welcome your troops with flowers!!!

Is Alaska part of NATO? Russia  will  only attack if its   not part of NATO  

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

I agree with Sushko’s trustworthiness, but I got it from somewhere else. That does not mean, it was not taken as a news from him Darth Putin mentioned it today as well though, but still no relevant source

Everything I found is very vague, or just says some people interpret the decree as meaning they want to reclaim Alaska. 

Sure they want WW3, I guess. Or maybe hoping Trump wins and they can get it from him on sale.

[Mamoulian War]

An investigative report on how Russia spreads their power into the Europe by corruption:

https://informnapalm.org/en/hacking-assistant-to-vice-speaker-of-the-russian-state-duma/?fbclid=IwAR11Jvg8KyOiDhVWQB7R3szoBVi7XJBSaZ9TT3MgdhgpcOH2N2LiAyUEDlA

[HoonDing]

Sarah Palin was right.

[xzar_monty]

A popular Russian TV programme called Vesti Nedeli did a special piece on Finland last Sunday, claiming that 1) Finland is more russophobic than the US, 2) all Russian-language schools in Finland will be closed, 3) Russians living in Finland will be stripped of their citizenship, 4) Finland will try to take Karelia back by force and 5) Finland is also dreaming of a new Greater Finland that would stretch all the way beyond the Urals [!].

Several decades ago, one of our best poets, Paavo Haavikko, wrote that "parody has become impossible / they're doing it themselves". That observation fits perfectly with this example of Russian television.

The pertinent question is, what percentage of viewers take the programme seriously and how many of them will recognize it's all rather hopeless and untrue. I have no idea, and I suppose no one does.

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

A popular Russian TV programme called Vesti Nedeli did a special piece on Finland last Sunday, claiming that 1) Finland is more russophobic than the US, 2) all Russian-language schools in Finland will be closed, 3) Russians living in Finland will be stripped of their citizenship, 4) Finland will try to take Karelia back by force and 5) Finland is also dreaming of a new Greater Finland that would stretch all the way beyond the Urals [!].

But why would any Russian ultra-nationalist be concerned about/upset with this? This is exactly what Russia is doing, which they consider to be okay. So why shouldn't others also do the same thing?

[xzar_monty]

19 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

But why would any Russian ultra-nationalist be concerned about/upset with this?

I am not concerned with Russian ultra-nationalists, I am interested in knowing what percentage of the population falls for this kind of propaganda. Not that it matters, and not that I'm ever going to know, but I am interested in any case.

I would like to see an end to the war, even if it is in the distance, but at the moment I only see one way to bring the end closer: as many Russian soldiers as possible need to be killed as quickly and efficiently as possible. That's extremely harsh, but I don't see any other realistic way towards ending the war.

Edited January 24 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

A popular Russian TV programme called Vesti Nedeli did a special piece on Finland last Sunday, claiming that 1) Finland is more russophobic than the US, 2) all Russian-language schools in Finland will be closed, 3) Russians living in Finland will be stripped of their citizenship, 4) Finland will try to take Karelia back by force and 5) Finland is also dreaming of a new Greater Finland that would stretch all the way beyond the Urals [!].

Several decades ago, one of our best poets, Paavo Haavikko, wrote that "parody has become impossible / they're doing it themselves". That observation fits perfectly with this example of Russian television.

The pertinent question is, what percentage of viewers take the programme seriously and how many of them will recognize it's all rather hopeless and untrue. I have no idea, and I suppose no one does.

This is also  the expected  outcome  when you only have state controlled  media in  a country, they can peddle any garbage the state wants and  viewers dont exactly have alternatives 

But to  answer your question,  ii will be the same people who  believe everything that the Russian state currently  peddles  through the media. 45-60% of  population if I had to guess based  on the Daniil   Orien videos  and how people respond to certain questions 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

@xzar_monty circling back to fires in Russia, about which we talk some moths ago. I have seen week or two ago article, which said, that in 2023 the fires quadrupled compared to 2022, which had already much more fires than during the pre-war era. Unfortunately, I can’t find the article anymore  

IIRĆ the statistics were based on officialy published Russian data.

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, kanisatha said:

But why would any Russian ultra-nationalist be concerned about/upset with this? This is exactly what Russia is doing, which they consider to be okay. So why shouldn't others also do the same thing?

Because they follow the rules based order.  In that the rules apply to thee, not me.