Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Zoraptor]

Well yeah, to put it in perspective something like 1% of applicants end up joining the Gurkhas annually. That's 20k+ Nepalese who'd be fine with fighting other peoples' wars who are potential recruits and who could make the first selection criteria. I guess some would only want to go to Britain specifically but even if half felt that way that's still 10k potential recruits for others. It's also not that long ago since Joanna Lumley shamed the Brits into stopping treating the Gurkhas like chattel (ie kicking them out when they got too old).

Some might also remember the rumours of the hordes of ravening Syrians who were going to descend on Ukraine*. It's not like western media doesn't have an agenda to push- every foreigner fighting for Ukraine tends to be a 'volunteer', for Russia... foreign fighter, mercenary, conscript etc. As things stand there are more documented** Syrians fighting for Ukraine than Russia.

Recruitment policies for out and out wars certainly tend to be extremely cynical.

*classic of its kind really. Shedloads of articles saying they were coming, then a handful months later explaining that the press wasn't wrong, the recruitment failed.

**depends how you feel about docs leaked to SOHR without any corroborating evidence like confirmed casualties. Tiger Forces are professional soldiers integrated into the Syrian military though, so even if they were there they wouldn't be either coerced nor mercenaries.

[Malcador]

Article gone, never mind.

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Malcador

[Gorgon]

I wonder if Hamas are going to wind up winning the war for Russia.

[Malcador]

14 hours ago, Gorgon said:

I wonder if Hamas are going to wind up winning the war for Russia.

Doubt it will, even with all the doom and gloom lately - e.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67667035

Biden will either cave or just compromise and get Ukraine their money.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Doubt it will, even with all the doom and gloom lately - e.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67667035

Biden will either cave or just compromise and get Ukraine their money.

But I do think its time for  Democratic  representatives to compromise on the border measures  Republicans want 

Ukraine will get the funding if Dems compromise on that  and the border  has become an absolute nightmare so its another legitimate target for increased funding. Biden cant agree by himself but yes he can influence his party in Congress 

[xzar_monty]

Some time ago, there was a strike on a naval base in Sevastopol, and a high-ranking Russian navy honcho was reported to have died, or not died, in that strike. Did we ever get to know whether he was in fact killed or not? I wonder if someone like @Mamoulian War knows the answer to this one.

[Malcador]

Wonder what Zelensky will come back from the US with, if anything. 

[Zoraptor]

I doubt he'd go if there was a serious chance he'd come back empty handed. The only thing worse than not getting aid would be going to the US and still not getting any aid.

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Some time ago, there was a strike on a naval base in Sevastopol, and a high-ranking Russian navy honcho was reported to have died, or not died, in that strike.

No further information, I believe. Two videos of Sokolov after the attack, then nothing since. Since neither video was absolutely definitive status is undefined, leaning towards still alive. He's still commander of the fleet and hasn't retired to spend more time with his family or similar.

Neither side seems all that keen on providing incontrovertible proof people are alive to suit media schedules. Shoigu, Gersasimov and Zaluzhny were all 'dead' or 'severely injured' for weeks or months because they didn't have verifiable appearances.

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Some time ago, there was a strike on a naval base in Sevastopol, and a high-ranking Russian navy honcho was reported to have died, or not died, in that strike. Did we ever get to know whether he was in fact killed or not? I wonder if someone like @Mamoulian War knows the answer to this one.

Few days after that strike, he was shown on one monitor during a meeting with shoigu. He did not speak and did not moved much on camera. This sparked a lot of speculations, but the most recent consensus is, that he is still alive.

[Malcador]

42 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

I doubt he'd go if there was a serious chance he'd come back empty handed. The only thing worse than not getting aid would be going to the US and still not getting any aid.

No joy so far on pressuring the Republicans.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Intransigence is a frequently used device in such discussions to wring extra concessions though, and it isn't always 'real'. Same with brinkmanship, debt ceiling discussions and the like often go down to the wire because urgency forces concessions. There's still 3(?) more days to get agreement and personally I think they'll get there, though it's far from certain.

[Malcador]

At least there will be an end to all the scare mongering about T90s in Berlin in 5 years or something.

[Malcador]

 

[HoonDing]

[Zoraptor]

Not sure any news on accession from the EU is good for Ukraine at the moment unless it comes with a way to get around Orban's veto on funding and more than 6% of the million shells promised as well; else it's just encouragement to Russia to harden its stance. Ukraine is never getting into the EU anyway unless it excludes its agricultural sector from subsidies.

No US funding until at least after the Christmas/ New Year break either since they're now in recess. Guess Zelensky's visit really was in vain.

[Hurlshort]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

No US funding until at least after the Christmas/ New Year break either since they're now in recess. Guess Zelensky's visit really was in vain.

Huh, USA today is reporting they passed a bill with funds, but I'm not seeing many other reports on it. Weird.

[Mamoulian War]

The insight into the battle of Avdiivka from PoV of UA commander, who is in charge of the defense of the city.
 

 

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Not sure any news on accession from the EU is good for Ukraine at the moment unless it comes with a way to get around Orban's veto on funding and more than 6% of the million shells promised as well; else it's just encouragement to Russia to harden its stance. Ukraine is never getting into the EU anyway unless it excludes its agricultural sector from subsidies.

No US funding until at least after the Christmas/ New Year break either since they're now in recess. Guess Zelensky's visit really was in vain.

 

9 minutes ago, Hurlshort said:

Huh, USA today is reporting they passed a bill with funds, but I'm not seeing many other reports on it. Weird.

 

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-expected-be-session-monday-border-aid-talks-continue-senators-2023-12-14/

Seems House is still not on board.  Not sure it matters all that much, even with all these fear mongering articles that Ukraine will be crushed with the delay.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/13/russia-ukraine-war-west-funding-00131638

 

[Mamoulian War]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12/
 

everything goes according to plan

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Hurlshort said:

Huh, USA today is reporting they passed a bill with funds, but I'm not seeing many other reports on it. Weird.

Is it referring to the general military budget perhaps... apparently that got passed yesterday/ recently. Along with the critically important vote on impeaching Biden (lol).

[pmp10]

11 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Not sure any news on accession from the EU is good for Ukraine at the moment unless it comes with a way to get around Orban's veto on funding and more than 6% of the million shells promised as well; else it's just encouragement to Russia to harden its stance. Ukraine is never getting into the EU anyway unless it excludes its agricultural sector from subsidies.

It gives them better access to EU funds so it's not all bad.
The real problem is they don't seem to understand the 'timeline: never' approach and fully expect to be admitted in a few years. 

[kanisatha]

17 hours ago, Hurlshort said:

Huh, USA today is reporting they passed a bill with funds, but I'm not seeing many other reports on it. Weird.

What was included in the NDAA that was passed by both houses is a continuation of a small military aid program for Ukraine that I believe predates the war. It amounts to just 300 million. The big 61 billion request is what is stalled, although the Administration is beginning to signal a willingness to compromise with Republicans on securing the southern border.

[Mamoulian War]

As the title says:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-former-soldier-wants-testify-icc-over-war-crimes-witnessed-2023-12-19/

 

There was in our news today a news about Politico article about Russian officer serving in army for 25 years and ex-wagner mercenary who fled Russia, after he refused an order from superior to execute civilians. I am wondering if it is the same person, as I am not able to find the mentioned Politico article.

[Malcador]

https://kyivindependent.com/you-get-to-the-other-side-and-then-what-ukrainian-soldiers-crossing-dnipro-fear-their-mission-is-hopeless/

NYT published something similar earlier this week, people weren't too happy with that for some reason.