Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Mamoulian War]

New info from investigation of Prigozhin’s “accident”

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1730652452272177607

[Malcador]

WaPo articles on the Ukraine offensive

https://archive.is/QBc7Z

https://archive.is/voNgX

"U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days."

A bit optimistic there.

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Malcador

[Lexx]

Guess they forgot about all the minefields and stuff.

[Malcador]

I want to see Austin's face when Zaluzhny said he needed 17MM artillery shells

[Gorth]

Looks like someone forgot the importance of (or lack of) complete air superiority in their planning. Ask any general in Pentagon to wage a land offensive without air support and he'll tell you to go stow it.

[Keyrock]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Otherwise: Ukraine lost because they didn't follow out superior tactics and sage advice! for the umpteenth time. Which might be an excuse if they hadn't done well previously with their own tactics (albeit with a lot of inadvertent help from the Russians).

There's a big difference between catching the Ruskies with their pants down and attacking dug in and fortified troops that are literally waiting for you.

[Zoraptor]

At least theoretically the Russians had plenty of time to dig in around Kharkov. Combination of too few troops and them being low quality -->--> the Russians inadvertently helping Ukraine out. Of course Ukraine also didn't have a viral internet campaign about that offensive, not hard to prepare defences when your opponent has sportingly told you what they're going to do ahead of time.

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Looks like someone forgot the importance of (or lack of) complete air superiority in their planning. Ask any general in Pentagon to wage a land offensive without air support and he'll tell you to go stow it.

While true Ukraine was never going to have air superiority. If they waited for that they'd tacitly be admitting to never going on the offensive again.

Ukraine didn't necessarily need complete air superiority, it being contested may have been enough to make Ka-52 losses too great to be sustainable and take out the designators for krasnopol artillery. They did try to bring in a lot of air defence assets, there was a big spike in S-300s and the like getting hit associated with it. Who knows, maybe if they'd zerged/ damned the torpedoes Russian lines along with a similar attitude for AD assets like the US wanted they'd have won. Doesn't seem very likely though.

(Dunno, the US' schwerpunkt'esque approach probably did have a better chance of success in absolute terms than the more dissipated attacks we got, but it was also far riskier for Ukraine who could easily have ended up with similar losses, just over a far more compressed timeframe. It was far closer to a Kursk situation than Barbarossa. Personally I'd say that the US approach was insane given the situation on the ground, and their supposed insistence on training raw conscripts so they hadn't learnt any 'bad habits' was at very best misguided. OTOH, maybe if Ukraine hadn't wasted a load of experienced troops on Bakhmut or stalled so that Tigers and Elefants could be delivered... but even then, the US' idea was to train and use recruits with ~6 weeks training, not experienced soldiers)

[Keyrock]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

not hard to prepare defences when your opponent has sportingly told you what they're going to do ahead of time.

 

[Mamoulian War]

Putin in his latest speech has threatened Latvia, that they would end up the same as Ukraine

[BruceVC]

https://yle.fi/a/74-20063067

 

Another example  of Russian interference in the EU, this time its a focus on the Nordic countries  and fueling  Islamophobia and specifically in Sweden 

[Gorth]

Continued from previous thread...

https://forums.obsidian.net/topic/132505-ukraine-conflict-the-nationalist-not-only-does-not-disapprove-of-atrocities-committed-by-his-own-side-but-he-has-a-remarkable-capacity-for-not-even-hearing-about-them/

 

 

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-latest-weapons-request-includes-thaad-air-defenses-f-18s-2023-12-06/

THAAD, really. Surprised no Minutemen or perhaps an aircraft carrier

[HoonDing]

Guess they'll really win now

[Zoraptor]

They didn't ask for an aircraft carrier because it can't transit the Bosporus under Montreux...

Kind of more surprised they asked for Globemasters and Super Hercules than THAAD. Maybe the truck blockade at the Polish border is really biting, but they're big, slow airframes that would be vulnerable in the air and on the ground.

Oh yeah, on the subject of requests: ask for 17 million (well, if accurate, that figure was likely part of the ongoing Zelensky/ Zaluzhny back and forth so likely designed to embarrass), friends order 60,000 instead.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

They didn't ask for an aircraft carrier because it can't transit the Bosporus under Montreux...

Could always take it and attack St Petersburg.  The C-17 one is pretty much a non starter, production ended a decade ago and I doubt people are going to part with any, I believe. 

More theater I guess.

[Mamoulian War]

South Korea has provided Ukraine in an indirect way more artillery shells than the whole EU combined… Unbelievable… Europe needs to be saved from overseas again, because some people still believe, Putin can be appeased

 

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2023/12/501_364468.html

[Gorth]

Finland can breathe a sigh of relief… looks like Putin got tired of the game and probably realised he couldn’t pull off a new invasion of the country…

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67647379

edit: also helps alleviating his manpower problem in Ukraine a bit

[xzar_monty]

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

Finland can breathe a sigh of relief…

... when it comes to this particular strategy and its application right now. Otherwise, no, unfortunately.

Russia has also been recruiting cannon fodder from Nepal: https://www.rferl.org/a/nepal-people-detained-recruitment-ukraine-war-russia/32717122.html

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

... when it comes to this particular strategy and its application right now. Otherwise, no, unfortunately.

Russia has also been recruiting cannon fodder from Nepal: https://www.rferl.org/a/nepal-people-detained-recruitment-ukraine-war-russia/32717122.html

But if people want  to volunteer and get paid   to fight in any war  that should  be there choice, your link is different to @Gorth

The BBC link is about  illegal immigrants being coerced to joining  the Russian army 

Your link says 

"In October 2023, The New York Times reported that hundreds of Nepalese citizens went to war in Ukraine for money - they are fighting for both the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Nepal's Ambassador to Moscow Milana Raj Tuladhara previously said that there are 150-200 Nepalese mercenaries serving in the Russian army. According to him, they are recruited with promises of big money. "Every day we send back at least one Nepalese citizen. All of them were brought to Russia to serve in the army. If a person does not have a Nepalese passport, we issue a travel document and send him back to Nepal," he said."

Gorth link says 

"The BBC has seen evidence of several cases in which foreigners were rushed into a military camp on the border with Ukraine, days after they were picked up for breaching immigration laws.

The practice of coercing people in pre-deportation detention centres to sign contracts for army service in Ukraine is not new, but the numbers swelled as foreign migrants arrived at Russia's 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Finland" 

But they are different ways Russia is recruiting but the  Nepal example is  fine because its a choice?

 

[Zoraptor]

Kind of depends whether it was genuinely voluntary or not. 'Trafficking' would generally imply some form of coercion or ill intent on the behalf of the organisers beyond just facilitating them becoming mercs/ 'mercs'.

Dunno about the refugees, guess as long as they're paid properly and Service Guarantees Citizenship it could be an attractive enough proposition to get volunteers. Maybe a bit naive expecting them to be paid properly though...

(Volunteering for foreign forces is certainly legal in certain circumstances in Nepal given the existence of the UK Ghurka Brigade)

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

But they are different ways Russia is recruiting but the  Nepal example is  fine because its a choice?

You seem to simplify the matter quite dramatically. The choice of someone like me joining a fight somewhere else is quite different from the choice of someone way below the poverty line needing to feed his kids, for instance.

[Elerond]

11 hours ago, Gorth said:

Finland can breathe a sigh of relief… looks like Putin got tired of the game and probably realised he couldn’t pull off a new invasion of the country…

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67647379

edit: also helps alleviating his manpower problem in Ukraine a bit

That may have been one of the Russia's goals in beginning.

First market Finland as easy port to EU and offer short term visas to Russia in masses to anyone that ask without any actual processing. 

Second take immigrants moneys and bring them to Russia.

Third guide immigrants to cause political issues in Finland and cause Finland current right wing anti immigration government to do predictable closing of the border that Russia also can use in their propaganda to Russians to tell how Finland is russophobic  

Fourth force immigrants to join Russian foreign legion by threating to charge them of breaking their visas. And blame Finland for leaving those poor immigrants to starve. 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

You seem to simplify the matter quite dramatically. The choice of someone like me joining a fight somewhere else is quite different from the choice of someone way below the poverty line needing to feed his kids, for instance.

I  hear you but I am not convinced that the decision to become a  soldier in a foreign war, even if its for economic desperation,  is the same as illegal immigrants trying to get into Finland and Russia taking advantage of that immigration objective and then the abuse of the border fails so now Russia wants to enlist  them in  its cannon fodder military tactics

The immigrants to Finland had no intention of going to war in Ukraine until they were coerced and this is not the first time  Russia has done this.  People from Africa sitting in Russian jails also " joined "    the Russia\Wagner  army and died in Ukraine, this is common around Russian conscription 

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner-africa/#:~:text=Of the three African men,a hero%2C” said Prigozhin.

 

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

I  hear you but I am not convinced that the decision to become a  soldier in a foreign war, even if its for economic desperation,  is the same as illegal immigrants trying to get into Finland

I agree. However, I don't think anyone has argued or even suggested that they are the same. But Russia's recruitment policy remains exceedingly cynical, at least in my view.

Edited December 8, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

Guess Russia decided they want Gurkhas too.