Ukraine Conflict - conflict continues

[Zoraptor]

I'm not even sure the US could have sent much lend lease wise. Flail tanks were made in relatively big numbers but would have quite obviously been useless on most of the eastern front (had to move at walking pace with turret reversed if the flail was deployed, and a Tommycooker's survivability on the eastern front was marginal without that due to its skyscraper profile) plus the soviets already had roller tanks present in greater numbers than the US built total over the course of the entire war. And of a design the US ended up copying, so better than the Sherman Crab anyway. That leaves the British/ Polish semi modern induction detectors and iirc the batteries were the limiting factor there.

They pretty definitely used German PoWs for mine clearing which was a bit naughty, but then so did pretty much everyone.

(I've always thought that particular urban legend was a reaction to allied conduct in WW1. Can't have the soviets being less profligate with their troops than Joffre or Haig after all)

Edited August 11, 2023 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

An inside look on work of Russian political officers and their idea of life value. Audio included

 

[Sarex]

https://news.yahoo.com/wagner-branded-posters-appear-poland-223500090.html

[Mamoulian War]

A counterargument to the latest Kofman analysis about Bakhmut battle.

TL;DW Ukraine might have lost a lot of quality solidiers, but as a result, they completely eliminated Wagner from UA battlefield, and have been the big spark of Wagner mutiny. And this result was worth all of the sacrifice. He laso talks about the timeline, that during the phase about which is Kofman talking, the all of the convicts were already dead or pardoned, so Wagner had to use their most experienced soldiers for last two months of meat assaults as well.

And that there is ongoing academic feud between Kofman and O’Brien (spelling?), who both has opposite views and neither want to admint, that they might have been not correct about their previous predictions

 

[Malcador]

13 hours ago, Sarex said:

https://news.yahoo.com/wagner-branded-posters-appear-poland-223500090.html

Now that's some bold marketing.

[BruceVC]

I found this really interesting, its only 9 minutes and I recommend everyone watches it to get some insight around what ordinary Russians think about weakness of the Ruble and reasons for the state of the Russian economy

The people are not economists and just ordinary citizens trying  to understand things but whats the most  revealing aspect of the video is the obvious fear about the lack  freedom of speech in Russia. Notice how people respond when asked questions like " how would you improve our political system "

Can you imagine how strange it would be living in any of our countries and not being able to criticize our governments  (thats all some people do and they earn a living from it )

[Mamoulian War]

@xzar_monty IIRC, you have been wondering about number of fires in Russia before and after the start of the SMO. Today I have read in local media, that before 02/22 the average was 20 fires at industrial sites per year. In 2022, the number of reported fires at industrial sites is more than 90.

[Malcador]

On 8/12/2023 at 6:37 AM, Mamoulian War said:

A counterargument to the latest Kofman analysis about Bakhmut battle.

TL;DW Ukraine might have lost a lot of quality solidiers, but as a result, they completely eliminated Wagner from UA battlefield, and have been the big spark of Wagner mutiny. And this result was worth all of the sacrifice. He laso talks about the timeline, that during the phase about which is Kofman talking, the all of the convicts were already dead or pardoned, so Wagner had to use their most experienced soldiers for last two months of meat assaults as well.

And that there is ongoing academic feud between Kofman and O’Brien (spelling?), who both has opposite views and neither want to admint, that they might have been not correct about their previous predictions

 

Aside from him not citing much. I think he's wrong about the convicts, they didn't really stop and also was not just convicts but low grade troops being used.  Also if they gave up Bakhmut, they'd run into a more fortified city.

I don't get his point though where it comes to Wagner - he says if they gave it up, then Wagner gets a PR boost as Putin sees how their method works.  But they got the same boost by grinding their way through the city anyway, and supposedly had the relation sour so much Prigozhin did the coup attempt anyway.   Seems like a lot of hindsight to make the Ukrainians brilliant, heh.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Malcador

[Gfted1]

Since we were recently talking about mine clearing vehicles, heres a UR-77 getting obliterated by a golden BB: Russian Mine Clearing Vehicle Detonates In Massive Fireball From Drone Bomblet (thedrive.com)

[Zoraptor]

Meteorit and US equivalents are packed full of HE, they'll go up spectacularly at a drop of a hat. A single line charge has multiple times the HE that a tank loadout would have.

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

IIRC, you have been wondering about number of fires in Russia before and after the start of the SMO. Today I have read in local media, that before 02/22 the average was 20 fires at industrial sites per year. In 2022, the number of reported fires at industrial sites is more than 90.

New Zealand had 944 industrial site fires over 5 years. Assuming Russian industrial site safety is as good as ours that would give... around 5000 industrial site fires per year, for Russia, based on population. And you'd have to assume it's quite a lot worse.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Since we were reThecently talking about mine clearing vehicles, heres a UR-77 getting obliterated by a golden BB: Russian Mine Clearing Vehicle Detonates In Massive Fireball From Drone Bomblet (thedrive.com)

The reality of mines is a huge problem for both sides and then mine clearing vehicles get destroyed like in this video

So the problem persists with no easy solution

 

[Mamoulian War]

12 hours ago, Malcador said:

Aside from him not citing much. I think he's wrong about the convicts, they didn't really stop and also was not just convicts but low grade troops being used.  Also if they gave up Bakhmut, they'd run into a more fortified city.

I don't get his point though where it comes to Wagner - he says if they gave it up, then Wagner gets a PR boost as Putin sees how their method works.  But they got the same boost by grinding their way through the city anyway, and supposedly had the relation sour so much Prigozhin did the coup attempt anyway.   Seems like a lot of hindsight to make the Ukrainians brilliant, heh.

It is needed to be taken with grain of salt, but Prigozhin himself has stated few weeks before his mutiny, that more casualties for wagner has been on the side of his “elite” soldiers compared to convicts. 
 

and here is the summary by UK defense. Every 48cm of landgrab by wagner cost them 1 casualty (KIA or WIA)

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

11 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Meteorit and US equivalents are packed full of HE, they'll go up spectacularly at a drop of a hat. A single line charge has multiple times the HE that a tank loadout would have.

New Zealand had 944 industrial site fires over 5 years. Assuming Russian industrial site safety is as good as ours that would give... around 5000 industrial site fires per year, for Russia, based on population. And you'd have to assume it's quite a lot worse.

Looking back at the info presented, it was not about all of the fires that broke up at industrial facilities, but about explosions and fires, which significantly impacted the function of sites affected by fire. 
 

I have no clue on what statistics was this information presented, I have presented it as it was shown here. I do not believe, that Russia has such transparent official statistics as New Zealand, which is available for anyone to look at, so that we or anyone else would be able to present it in the manner as in your link.
 

IMHO also even if Russia has more population, that does not automatically mean, that they have more factories. As their economy is primarily producing raw mined/extracted materials for exports, and is falling back behind the rest of the world in the industrial production. In that regard would be More relevant comparison with Venezuela.

[Gfted1]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

The reality of mines is a huge problem for both sides and then mine clearing vehicles get destroyed like in this video

So the problem persists with no easy solution

I know that its full of HE cord, but it was the incredibly lucky shot by the Ukraine drone operator that surprised me. A tank hatch is slightly larger in diameter than an adult body so getting a homebrew 40mm grenade bomb to drop right in the pickle barrel is nuts! Considering the wind and the 3 axis sway of the drone, they could have taken that shot another 100 times and never hit the hole again. 

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

I know that its full of HE cord, but it was the incredibly lucky shot by the Ukraine drone operator that surprised me. A tank hatch is slightly larger in diameter than an adult body so getting a homebrew 40mm grenade bomb to drop right in the pickle barrel is nuts! Considering the wind and the 3 axis sway of the drone, they could have taken that shot another 100 times and never hit the hole again. 

OFF TOPIC and a tasteless comparison, but stuff like this tends to remind me of how, given enough games, you will always see marvelous long-shot goals even in Sunday Level football [soccer] tournaments -- someone just happens to connect really well with the ball. But you will never see goals like the one that Messi scored against Nigeria in the 2018 World Cup: taking three touches like that while running at that speed just takes too much skill.

So yeah, a lucky shot.

[Malcador]

https://kyivindependent.com/media-senior-nato-official-suggests-ukraine-could-exchange-territory-for-nato-membership/

DOA idea. Good for one thing, winding up all the Ukrainian REMF hawks like Podolyak.

[bugarup]

As it should be. What's the genius behind this idea, Norwegian? Well if he's so generous, he can always offer Svalbard to russia instead. 

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://kyivindependent.com/media-senior-nato-official-suggests-ukraine-could-exchange-territory-for-nato-membership/

DOA idea. Good for one thing, winding up all the Ukrainian REMF hawks like Podolyak.

That would be a great deal for Ukraine if it was remotely credible.
Russia will never agree to what would be an outright defeat and there is no way to strong-arm Hungary to accept enlargement. 

But the territorial concessions part is believable. 

[xzar_monty]

Interesting news from Russia: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-15/russia-discusses-return-to-capital-controls-to-stem-ruble-slump#xj4y7vzkg

[Malcador]

Somewhat funny. 

[Zoraptor]

Upgraded so they can keep chickens on top of the turret as camouflage, absolute genius! Though the other one we've seen doesn't have the cope cage. And that's all the brigades for the 'counter'offensive committed now.

I am most definitely not looking forward to seemingly every video of an armoured vehicle being hit in the next week being labelled as a Challenger by hopeful pro Russians though.

[bugarup]

I've read a recent report by some russian officer, proper patriotic Z-head but not delusional, about inflated hit vehicle numbers hows (basically staged photoshoots from different angles) and whys (for the brass). While Ukraine's senior officers are mostly under the same falsification-lovin' soviet doctrine still, they at least have "foreign consultants" who largely curb fiction.

[BruceVC]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russias-war-torn-economy-hits-its-speed-limit/ar-AA1fn5bg#:~:text=T he Russian central bank’s jumbo interest-rate increase,insulate its businesses and citizens from the war.

Here is a good link about the current state of the Russian economy and some of its systemic problems created by the invasion and the impact of Western sanctions 

 

[Gfted1]

Cope cage would have probably saved that UR-77.

[Malcador]

15 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Upgraded so they can keep chickens on top of the turret as camouflage, absolute genius! Though the other one we've seen doesn't have the cope cage. And that's all the brigades for the 'counter'offensive committed now.

I am most definitely not looking forward to seemingly every video of an armoured vehicle being hit in the next week being labelled as a Challenger by hopeful pro Russians though.

Should work with Lancets and such, although not sure that's really much of a threat to a Challenger.  Is funny to see it praised as ingenuity, even on something as invulnerable as that, heh.

When the Abrams show up that will be interesting to see