Ukraine Conflict - conflict continues

[Lexx]

Actually that was a serious question, since it was all I remembered about it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Mamoulian War]

On 7/25/2023 at 4:13 PM, Malcador said:

China probably wants the grain they were getting from Ukraine.

Of course, not enough grain for producing pork lead always to times of trouble in China

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-tells-african-leaders-moscow-is-studying-their-ukraine-proposal-2023-07-28/

Good for them to try, but too early still.

[Mamoulian War]

Romania is willing to use their air force to help with Ukrainian grain transit over Danube river.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/28/7413257/

[BruceVC]

The Russia African summit is over and it  was the predicted failure with only 17 African heads of state going and the AU dismissing the Russian offer of free grain as a way to address canceling the black sea grain deal. Russia cant supply enough " free grain " and the AU head urged Putin to restore the deal . To quote from the link below

"But Assoumani pushed back against the Russian leader’s claim that Russia would provide enough grain to Africa without the need for Ukrainian supplies.

Although Russia was “cooperating” to resolve the crisis, “our continent is currently being severely impacted by food prices. So we are appealing to all participants in the process with a big request to facilitate access to both Ukrainian and Russian food,” he said in comments translated from French into Russian "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/27/africa-grain-russia/ 

 

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.dw.com/en/african-leaders-urge-putin-to-consider-ukraine-peace-plan/a-66379268

Here is a nice summary link of the Africa Russia summit and it includes things we have already discussed but new information as well, I found this particularly interesting 

"During the summit's opening on Thursday, Moscow pledged 25,000 to 50,000 tons of Russian grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and Central African Republic each in the next three to four months.

Under the now halted grain deal, the UN World Food Program shipped 725,000 tons of grain to several countries, including Somalia "

So the free grain from Russia cant make up for what is lost through the black sea deal being cancelled 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

And they are offering it only to countries, which have Wagner or strong pro-Russian presence in them

[Malcador]

45 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

So the free grain from Russia cant make up for what is lost through the black sea deal being cancelled 

The not free grain from Russia can though

[Zoraptor]

Sigh.

The WFP is, of course, free to buy Russian grain to replace the Ukrainian grain it bought- and it did buy it, though you'd be excused for thinking they didn't and it was given away by the language used in some reports. ie Good Guy Russia, wfp has more money to buy grain since they now only have to supply ~20% of the amount to Africa they used to. Which, and this left me flabbergasted amazed and bewildered, wasn't actually 725kt.

In a Very Surprising turn of events western media included amounts sent to non African countries (Afghanistan, Yemen) and one country that already has a replacement deal with Russia (Ethiopia) in their figures. Indeed, supposedly the 4 biggest receivers of WFP food aid were: Ethiopia, Turkey (!, presumably earthquake related), Afghanistan and Yemen (via wsj, but it's paywalled) and the only African country there is Ethiopia. Somalia is also western aligned, at least in theory.

And, of course, the AU head's comments can very easily be read as criticism of the west for trying to stifle Russia's food exports. And yes, I know there's a lovely EU page saying they aren't doing that, it just leaves out every bit where they are. Which the Africans are very much aware of.

And and once again again, if Europe and the US really wants to help Africa and stick it to Russian agricultural exports they could skip a few collective burgers. Then there would be plenty of cheap food and a lot less leverage. That takes some self control though, eh.

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Sigh.

The WFP is, of course, free to buy Russian grain to replace the Ukrainian grain it bought- and it did buy it, though you'd be excused for thinking they didn't and it was given away by the language used in some reports. ie Good Guy Russia, wfp has more money to buy grain since they now only have to supply ~20% of the amount to Africa they used to. Which, and this left me flabbergasted amazed and bewildered, wasn't actually 725kt.

In a Very Surprising turn of events western media included amounts sent to non African countries (Afghanistan, Yemen) and one country that already has a replacement deal with Russia (Ethiopia) in their figures. Indeed, supposedly the 4 biggest receivers of WFP food aid were: Ethiopia, Turkey (!, presumably earthquake related), Afghanistan and Yemen (via wsj, but it's paywalled) and the only African country there is Ethiopia. Somalia is also western aligned, at least in theory.

And, of course, the AU head's comments can very easily be read as criticism of the west for trying to stifle Russia's food exports. And yes, I know there's a lovely EU page saying they aren't doing that, it just leaves out every bit where they are. Which the Africans are very much aware of.

And and once again again, if Europe and the US really wants to help Africa and stick it to Russian agricultural exports they could skip a few collective burgers. Then there would be plenty of cheap food and a lot less leverage. That takes some self control though, eh.

You welcome to find another link quoting different words that the head of the AU said but he said ( which I directly quoted in a previous post}

"But Assoumani pushed back against the Russian leader’s claim that Russia would provide enough grain to Africa without the need for Ukrainian supplies.

Although Russia was “cooperating” to resolve the crisis, “our continent is currently being severely impacted by food prices. So we are appealing to all participants in the process with a big request to facilitate access to both Ukrainian and Russian food,” he said in comments translated from French into Russian"

Its very clear to everyone but you that this means Africa needs both grain from Russia AND Ukraine. Then the head of the UN SG said 

"UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres responded to Putin's grain pledge, stressing that grain donations cannot compensate for the deal" 

 

All you doing is ignoring the obvious impact cancelling the deal will have on Africa ,which is a global impact ,but as its been explained it will hit Africa by far the hardest. Its simple, Russia is doing this to push grain prices up so they make more money and they put pressure to end Western sanctions.  But these sanctions were only implemented because of the invasion of Ukraine so its food blackmail due to the consequence of there ill-conceived invasion 

It reminds me of what SA could have done during Apartheid, we faced severe sanctions and we had created what were called  Bantustans which were black states within the borders of SA that were  dependant on SA on most things for survival. The Apartheid government  could easily have said " we cant afford to support these Bantustans because of the  " evil, Western sanctions "...unless the West drops the sanctions we cannot economically ensure the survival of these regions"

Bu even the racist, immoral Apartheid state didnt do that and do you know why? Because the system of Apartheid was self-created and the sanctions were self-inflicted so they had a responsibility to continue to support the Bantustans which were part of the Apartheid architecture 

 The obvious solution is not for " Europeans to eat less hamburgers" but for Russia to restore the grain deal in the interests of global and African food security. 

[Malcador]

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

The obvious solution is not for " Europeans to eat less hamburgers" but for Russia to restore the grain deal in the interests of global and African food security

I think both would work to help feed Africans, no?

 

[pmp10]

The Saudis are about to join the 'we have a peace plan' club.
Interestingly, Russia and China are not expected to attend the talks, so it's essentially a glorified effort to lobby the global south. 

Pretty surprising twist after all the US spiting they have done recently.

[Malcador]

So these 100 Wagner guys have people worried for some reason.

[Zoraptor]

15 hours ago, BruceVC said:

You welcome to find another link quoting different words that the head of the AU said but he said

Actually Bruce you directly quoted a heavily editorialised version from the WP. Which was pretty much literally written about one paragraph in a ~12 minute speech, the vast majority of which was extremely flattering to Russia- and in which there was also one paragraph criticising Ukraine for not even wanting to negotiate. For some reason the WP didn't report that, though...

There is a transcript of Assoumani's speech available, though I'd prefer one from the AU since that's an official AU account of what was said (and is not up yet). Or you can watch one of the multiple videos of course, if you can speak French or turn on an autotranslator. I suspect that's a bit too much work though.

[Zoraptor]

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

I think both would work to help feed Africans, no?

You'd at least think the anti Russia lot would be all over the idea of permanently weakening Russia and removing her leverage even if they don't really care about Africa. Guess it's all a bit too hard though- and for the realpolitik of it, would also remove the west's leverage over Africa...

(Otherwise, and admittedly somewhat OT for here it would also save the average consumer a lot of money and be more healthy. There really aren't any negatives, to the average person, of a reduction in meat consumption apart from how tasty meat is. It's also about the biggest contribution the average westerner could make to climate change action (besides not having children, obviously and understandably a non starter for many people); which ought to be fairly important given that much of the northern hemisphere seems to have been on fire the last week. But as always, far more important to say that you're doing something about a problem than to actually do something about it which takes some effort and might result in tractors toodling around Paris or whatever. Very #StopKony2012 energy, overall)

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Actually Bruce you directly quoted a heavily editorialised version from the WP. Which was pretty much literally written about one paragraph in a ~12 minute speech, the vast majority of which was extremely flattering to Russia- and in which there was also one paragraph criticising Ukraine for not even wanting to negotiate. For some reason the WP didn't report that, though...

There is a transcript of Assoumani's speech available, though I'd prefer one from the AU since that's an official AU account of what was said (and is not up yet). Or you can watch one of the multiple videos of course, if you can speak French or turn on an autotranslator. I suspect that's a bit too much work though.

This is going to be my last comment on this topic with you because I feel I am repeating myself and after reading this post I am not sure we are even debating the same thing?

This is not about " are African leaders polite and flattering to Putin  in there speeches " of course they are. Thats normal diplomacy 101 especially when you visiting another country and you at a summit about closer  economic and security ties. Its the same as the African peace initiative when various African leaders visited both Ukraine and Russia, they were very polite

This is about the majority of African  leaders asking Russia to restore the grain deal because by cancelling it you are going to increase food insecurity in Africa. There are literally 9-10 different speeches from different African leaders wanting the same thing including the SA president over the last  7-10 days and its covered extensively in our local media 

In fact its going to be much harder to find a single African leader supporting the cancelled grain deal and just being happy with the Russians free grain deal. But if you find a link like that post it and I will read it 

But in closing, the official AU view is Russia needs to restore the grain deal because cancelling it is not in the best interests of Africa. If you disagree with that then post the links? But my point has nothing to do with how polite African leaders are to Putin in speeches 

 

 

[xzar_monty]

On 7/29/2023 at 12:10 AM, Zoraptor said:

And, of course, the AU head's comments can very easily be read as criticism of the west for trying to stifle Russia's food exports. And yes, I know there's a lovely EU page saying they aren't doing that, it just leaves out every bit where they are. Which the Africans are very much aware of.

Is your working life somehow connected to the vagaries of international trade, treaties and/or jurisprudence? Your take on these issues somehow suggests that it might.

(Not that I in any way disagree with the manifold hypocrisies of the EU, mind you.)

[Zoraptor]

Haha, no. Biochemistry in training, but ended up mostly doing unrelated stuff like modelling (of the computer rather than Zoolander variety). I did have to do a decent amount of proper fact checking/ research though.

[Sarex]

23 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Haha, no. Biochemistry in training, but ended up mostly doing unrelated stuff like modelling (of the computer rather than Zoolander variety). I did have to do a decent amount of proper fact checking/ research though.

Why did I think you were in retail. I thought you were working in an electronics store.

[Mamoulian War]

Good read

https://www.salon.com/2023/07/29/how-russian-colonialism-took-the-western-anti-imperialist-left-for-a-ride/

[BruceVC]

55 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Good read

https://www.salon.com/2023/07/29/how-russian-colonialism-took-the-western-anti-imperialist-left-for-a-ride/

Very interesting, lots of historical things I didnt know about 

[pmp10]

Ukraine / US start discussion on security guarantees.
Not long ago, Ukraine would laugh them off as no better than Budapest memorandum.

If the war is to be frozen then Ukraine will survive or fall depending on these terms.

[xzar_monty]

16 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Haha, no. Biochemistry in training, but ended up mostly doing unrelated stuff like modelling (of the computer rather than Zoolander variety). I did have to do a decent amount of proper fact checking/ research though.

Ok, thanks. The easiest thing to imagine about you is that you have learned to follow and can apply strict logical methodology, so biochemistry is no surprise.

Speaking of biochemistry, just the other day I had a very small lightbulb moment when I recognized, through my current studies of Greek, that "laboratory" is quite literally just a "place of work". I hadn't thought of that before. (And "polemics" comes, interestingly enough, directly from war, as in Greek polemos = war. I cannot think of anything in any other language that refers to the Greek peace, irini, other than the given name Irene.)

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Ukraine / US start discussion on security guarantees.
Not long ago, Ukraine would laugh them off as no better than Budapest memorandum.

If the war is to be frozen then Ukraine will survive or fall depending on these terms.

Thats interesting, I wonder if its true?

I like the parts

"Security guarantees for Ukraine will be concrete, long-term obligations ensuring Ukraine's capacity to defeat and restrain Russian aggression in the future. These will be clearly drafted formats and mechanisms of support."

He said the guarantees "will be in effect until Ukraine secures NATO membership."

" He said an initial international meeting devoted to the peace plan took place in Copenhagen in June.

In addition to calling for a withdrawal of Russian troops, Zelenskiy's peace plan also provides for the restoration of Ukraine's pre-war borders and the return home of all prisoners and deported children"

It seems reasonable, the Ruskies will keep Crimea and I imagine get Western sanction relief?

[Gorth]

If you nitpick the term "pre-war borders", that would imply a restoration of status quo to early 2022? I.e. Crimea be the price of peace.

 

Edit: What could make both the people living in Donbas and the government in Ukraine happy? I can't really see any compromises, that would ensure long lasting peace.