Ukraine Conflict - conflict continues

[Elerond]

12 minutes ago, Malcador said:

China probably wants the grain they were getting from Ukraine.

China does not directly import grain from Ukraine, but they are one of the largest (4th in 2021) grain importers in world and heavily depend on global grain market and Ukraine is one of the largest (5th in 2021) grain exporters in world (they export twice as much as China imports), so if when Ukraine's wheat is off the market, China's import bill increases lot and their reliance to USA (where they buy about half of their grain).

[Malcador]

15 minutes ago, Elerond said:

China does not directly import grain from Ukraine, but they are one of the largest (4th in 2021) grain importers in world and heavily depend on global grain market and Ukraine is one of the largest (5th in 2021) grain exporters in world (they export twice as much as China imports), so if when Ukraine's wheat is off the market, China's import bill increases lot and their reliance to USA (where they buy about half of their grain).

https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/data

Neat breakdown, and people always talk crap about the UN.

 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Malcador

[Elerond]

45 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/data

Neat breakdown, and people always talk crap about the UN.

 

They seem to get lot of corn and sunflower meal. I looked typical grain products like wheat.

[Zoraptor]

Fair enough on the sunflowers since they, well, flower so aren't technically grains. Same with soya and rapeseed/ canola for that matter. Maize/ corn is about as typical a grain as you can get though and has +50% production worldwide on either wheat or rice- and for the relevant data +100% on wheat.

There is most definitely a big problem with articles reporting as if wheat is the only grain produced, and there are massive discrepancies in reported numbers due to that.

[Elerond]

52 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Fair enough on the sunflowers since they, well, flower so aren't technically grains. Same with soya and rapeseed/ canola for that matter. Maize/ corn is about as typical a grain as you can get though and has +50% production worldwide on either wheat or rice- and for the relevant data +100% on wheat.

There is most definitely a big problem with articles reporting as if wheat is the only grain produced, and there are massive discrepancies in reported numbers due to that.

Corn is fruit, but it is often classified as vegetable if it's fresh and grain if it's old

[Malcador]

Should just have called it the Black Sea Agricultural Initiative.

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Corn is fruit, but it is often classified as vegetable if it's fresh and grain if it's old

Corn is certainly a fruit, but then wheat is also a fruit*. Which is unsurprising, since wheat and maize are in the same Family so are pretty closely related. Monocot fruit is pretty much always referred to as either cereal or grain to disambiguate/ specify.

As for the rest, yes you can certainly eat maize 'fresh' if it's sweetcorn and some (not much, nowhere near) is eaten that way- but it's highly unlikely that maize being exported by ship is corn on the cob. It's dried kernels or pre ground meal; cobs add extra weight/ volume and sweetcorn goes off quickly, plus it's far more difficult to load. Don't need to worry about dried kernels or meal bruising, after all, just chuck em in a silo.

*as are a lot of vegetables, like pumpkins. Common usage doesn't tend to be rigorously taxonomic.

[Gorth]

11 hours ago, Elerond said:

China does not directly import grain from Ukraine, but they are one of the largest (4th in 2021) grain importers in world and heavily depend on global grain market and Ukraine is one of the largest (5th in 2021) grain exporters in world (they export twice as much as China imports), so if when Ukraine's wheat is off the market, China's import bill increases lot and their reliance to USA (where they buy about half of their grain).

Others disagree...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1333847/ukrainian-agricultural-exports-via-the-black-sea-by-country/

Not saying that they (China) get most of their grain from Ukraine, but it was one of the largest destinations for the grain that Ukraine exports/exported the last 12 months. Doesn't mean they are going to starve, but the reduced supply will affect the buying cost, probably snatching away supplies destined for third world countries by other grain suppliers (who can make more profit by selling to China). Most of Ukraine's grain were in the past sold to destinations like Spain and Taiwan, some middle eastern countries like Israel as well as Egypt (their only major African customer). But again, damaging the Ukrainian economy is not the only effect, it inflates the price for countries who can ill afford food in the first place, when first world countries buy them out of the market so to speak, as they can pay the higher prices.

[Zoraptor]

I'd suspect most of the grain supplied to China is going to animal feed rather than direct human consumption. There are a lot of pigs in China that need feeding and not all in the politburo, he says for -50 social credit.

Pretty much have to be the case for Spain, their share of the Black Sea shipments works out to a fairly staggering 120kg per person. Which would mean that every Spaniard would be eating half a loaf of bread (or tortillas, to avoid being wheatist) per day, every day, solely of Ukrainian grain.

[BruceVC]

15 hours ago, Malcador said:

China probably wants the grain they were getting from Ukraine.

Definititley and Im sure they also don't want anything to impact there numerous African investments 

Buti its still appreciated, China has the most influence on Russia IMO. I am not suggesting Russia listens to China but Russia needs China on various economic levels 

[Lexx]

Wait, but didn't someone in here just recently said that the whole grain thing only matters to europe and nobody else?

Edited July 26, 2023 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Lexx said:

Wait, but didn't someone in here just recently said that the whole grain thing only matters to europe and nobody else?

Yes, Zora's suggestion to the global impact caused by the Russians ending the grain deal is " for Europeans to eat less hamburgers " 

Maybe the Chinese should eat less burgers?

 

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Lexx said:

Wait, but didn't someone in here just recently said that the whole grain thing only matters to europe and nobody else?

  Doens't really seem like he wrote that.   Sure is being marketed to me as yet another reason this war is a global struggle and no nation can shrug their shoulders at it, heh.

On 7/21/2023 at 4:05 AM, Zoraptor said:

Number of African countries in the top 18 export destinations for Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea deal: 3. Which includes Libya, which is rich. Sorry, sorry, was rich, forgot it underwent a completely avoidable disaster that ruined the place and set it back decades for a moment, easy to do when there are so many similar examples I guess. That accounts for... 7% of the exports. If you count Egypt and Libya as Middle Eastern instead of African, there's one (1) African country on the list, at #13 (Kenya) and Africa accounts for just over one (1)% of the grain supply (source). Though at least I got a laugh out of the EU's propaganda arm aggregating the stats into two (developed/ developing) because any other way of doing it looked awful for them. Added bonus: Turkey cucked yet again by being included in the 'developing' tier.

Now, its potential to annoy the #1 recipient of Ukraine grain might be a problem for Russia, since that's China...

(Of course there is the problem of potential price inflation but... any problems for Africa there could also be avoided by Euros y'know, not eating as much meat and not needing so much grain to feed to pigs/ cows/ sheep so they can eat burgers while Africans starve. Shame they can't eat lectures about how much they should care about Ukraine, if they could world hunger would be solved)

Price impacts would matter, though. 

[BruceVC]

https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...-russia-summit-kremlin-seeks-allies-101668928 

Only 17 African heads of states, compared to 43 last time, are attending the African Russian conference. Its good to see this rejection of Russia's geopolitical anti-Western stance

Compare this to the US African conference where over 40 African leaders attended. I think the Ruskies cancelling the grain deal had an influence on this because its clear Putin has no real concern or interest in Africa

https://www.npr.org/2022/12/13/1142...-than-40-african-leaders-at-u-s-africa-summit

[Malcador]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/26/world/russia-ukraine-news/this-is-the-big-test-us-officials-describe-a-new-ukrainian-effort-to-sever-russias-hold-on-the-south?smid=url-share

It has begun.  For real this time

[Keyrock]

With the money the US has spent on the Ukraine War so far it could have instead purchased nearly 70 Mbappés.

Edited July 26, 2023 by Keyrock

[Zoraptor]

12 hours ago, Lexx said:

Wait, but didn't someone in here just recently said that the whole grain thing only matters to europe and nobody else?

Don't think so. He specifically mentioned China and price inflation (ta Malcador for saving me scrolling back an entire page) despite the context being the pearl clutching about how Africa would starve. I do seem to recall someone publicly saying they'd blocked that poster though...

But yeah, if Europe* ate fewer burgers Africa wouldn't starve; that's simple energy maths. 90% of the energy in food is 'lost' feeding animals. Don't eat meat reared on corn and the like and you can feed 10x as many people, and for less money. Far easier to just blame Russia than do something that would actually solve the problem though; that's the problem with a lot of Euros really, no self control, can't stick to their stated commitments and always going for the zinger to make themselves feel good even when it's a load of bollocks.

*everyone really, unless you're rearing animals on grass/ land that can't be used for cropping. But westerners do eat far more meat proportionately than, say, the Chinese.

[pmp10]

Some details emerge about the unofficial US-Russia talks.

If the account is true then Russia is unclear on their objectives at this point.
Or they have no intention on unveiling them just yet.

Also an interesting view that Putin is the key stumbling block to any negotiated agreement.

[Zoraptor]

Nowhere near enough information is known to draw concrete conclusions on anything about the negotiations, except that they're happening, kind of. Putin being the problem is... well, when isn't he the problem to unnamed security source talking about Ukraine?

The interpretation of the US side leaking suggests they're the ones most keen on progress and least happy about the status quo. Even that isn't really concrete though, at minimum it requires the leak(s) to be authorised.

[Keyrock]

I think we all know how this ends. Russia takes the land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas becomes an "independent state" that's, for all intents and purposes, Russian. Both sides claim "victory" and we end up in a situation similar to Korea where technically they're still at war, although the hostilities have ceased. It's only a matter of how many more thousands of lives are lost before we reach the "conclusion" that we were always going to reach.

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Some details emerge about the unofficial US-Russia talks.

If the account is true then Russia is unclear on their objectives at this point.
Or they have no intention on unveiling them just yet.

Also an interesting view that Putin is the key stumbling block to any negotiated agreement.

“In fact, we emphasized that the U.S. needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The U.S. wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the U.S. to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world.

 

Tl;d;r the US wants to have cake and eat it. A Russia that can keep Islamist radicals in check in the its southern regions, without threatening NATO expansion in eastern Europe.

 

Edit: Not surprised at this point, that they have no clue how to define victory objectives, as I doubt they had a plan B once plan A failed miserably.

[Lexx]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I do seem to recall someone publicly saying they'd blocked that poster though...

You wanna be blocked again? Saves me the trouble to scroll over the posts, I guess.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Lexx

[Sarex]

8 hours ago, Keyrock said:

I think we all know how this ends. Russia takes the land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas becomes an "independent state" that's, for all intents and purposes, Russian. Both sides claim "victory" and we end up in a situation similar to Korea where technically they're still at war, although the hostilities have ceased. It's only a matter of how many more thousands of lives are lost before we reach the "conclusion" that we were always going to reach.

Think of all the weapon stockpiles that had their best by date expired. We mustn't waste foo...I mean weapons. Although I think you are being optimistic, there is a fairly good chance this whole mess goes out of control. If history is good at anything, it's good at repeating itself. Nothing better for the economy than to do a little purge and boost the domestic heavy industries.

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Keyrock said:

I think we all know how this ends. Russia takes the land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas becomes an "independent state" that's, for all intents and purposes, Russian. Both sides claim "victory" and we end up in a situation similar to Korea where technically they're still at war, although the hostilities have ceased. It's only a matter of how many more thousands of lives are lost before we reach the "conclusion" that we were always going to reach.

No thats not the only option, different leadership or a shift in ideological goals  in Russia can produce different results and commitments to the invasion

The Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan after years of protracted war and the US  also left Afghanistan. So there are lots of variables to the outcome of this war 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

4 hours ago, Lexx said:

You wanna be blocked again? Saves me the trouble to scroll over the posts, I guess.

Depends, if all you're going to do is take pointless- and inaccurate- swipes then it'd probably be better for all concerned, yes? That just wastes everyone's time. The other option would be preferable but either way, not a matter I'm going to lose sleep over.