Ukraine Conflict - The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

My sense is that many will argue that neutrality is not a reasonable option: it effectively means being pro-Russia. Inactivity and/or indifference helps Russia.

Personally I agree that being neutral is  "helping " Russia but then its more complicated than that for a country like SA. And why I say that is there should be no debate around condemning the invasion, SA condemned the US invasion of Iraq and this invasion and the illegal annexations within Ukraine  is much worse 

But in defense of SA we part of BRICS and most BRICS countries have taken the same stance of being non-aligned 

My biggest concern is always the reality compared to the ideological comments from SA and our foreign affairs and how they dont seem to understand the economic structures  of SA

We do R15 billion a year trade with Russia and we do R1.3 trillion with Western countries. Russia trade and what we gain from Russia is irrelevant and you would assume the Russian sympathizers in the ANC would realise this but they dont and there support is literally based on the Cold War reality where the Soviets " were our friends and helped end Apartheid " (we have discussed this before )

Also what meaningful role could SA play in the war? It doesnt matter  what we publicly say its not going to change or influence Russia or Ukraine and why would it. Lets be honest if we cant even stop  current civil wars, military coups and conflicts in Africa what credibility do we have?

We need to focus on our numerous domestic problems, like the energy crisis, and not do anything to jeopardize investment and job creation. 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by BruceVC

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-06-06-ramaphosa-embarks-on-attempted-course-correction-of-sas-russia-stance/

SA is sending various representatives to the G7 to clarify our position that we are not pro-Russia

Our mixed messages and ostensible support for Russia has already impacted our international  investor portfolio with investors selling SA bonds, currency and equities

This impact to our economy is self-inflicted and hopefully we can change the view in the G7 that we are not  pro-Russia and that we are neutral 

Sort of funny that SA can't get away with shrugging at a far off war like EU/NA can.  Are people dumping assets just due to fear of US sanctions ?

[Mamoulian War]

And Russia shells people while evacuating Kherson. So far two policemen have been wounded by shelling during rescue operations…

[Malcador]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

All seems a bit too on the nose, though.

[Mamoulian War]

46 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

All seems a bit too on the nose, though.

Interesting about this is, that even Russia has stated, that it is impossible that the real culprit could be Ukraine

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Sort of funny that SA can't get away with shrugging at a far off war like EU/NA can.  Are people dumping assets just due to fear of US sanctions ?

Its a valid question, no Western company is leaving SA and there are no real talks of anything like sanctions  because that would be unreasonable unless SA did something that was in contravention of sanctions and I dont think that even exists around Ukraine. In other words countries are buying Russian oil and the West isnt sanctioning them 

But investors in any African country have very little appetite to risk so just the allegation of SA supplying weapons to Russia impacted our economy  because of the potential of what might come if SA has been lying about being neutral because you cant say you neutral if you supplying weapons to an aggressor or invading country 

Thats why our government is sending these representatives, to clarify that we are neutral or at least explain what that means to us

[BruceVC]

https://bnn.network/world/serbia/serbia-supports-ammunition-shipments-to-ukraine-as-it-shifts-focus-westward/

Well done @Sarex, its good to see Serbia doing its part to help Ukraine. Keep it up 

[Malcador]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/khakovka-dam-live-updates-ukraine-russia-blew-up-kherson-rcna87855#rcrd13603

US believes it was Russia.  So I guess things escalate now, can see Ukraine using this to demand the next level of weapons.

[BruceVC]

46 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/khakovka-dam-live-updates-ukraine-russia-blew-up-kherson-rcna87855#rcrd13603

US believes it was Russia.  So I guess things escalate now, can see Ukraine using this to demand the next level of weapons.

But the Russians are in charge of the dam and I cant see why the Ukrainians would blow it up?

Apparently 22k people in Russian's controlled areas will be affected by the flooding and 16k in Ukrainian controlled 

https://apnews.com/article/kakhovka-dam-ukraine-russia-war-whats-at-stake-a417dafefa79462bef5e4e63c0a94c8c

 

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/khakovka-dam-live-updates-ukraine-russia-blew-up-kherson-rcna87855#rcrd13603

US believes it was Russia.  So I guess things escalate now, can see Ukraine using this to demand the next level of weapons.

If there will be a lackluster reaction to this warcrime, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be next…

And it looks like, that Russians are already working hard on fabricating their “evidence…

 

[Malcador]

Why I love my local media - CBC interviewing some Ukrainian MP who's saying this is proof Russia will destroy the whole planet if not stopped.

[Zoraptor]

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/khakovka-dam-live-updates-ukraine-russia-blew-up-kherson-rcna87855#rcrd13603

US believes it was Russia.  So I guess things escalate now, can see Ukraine using this to demand the next level of weapons.

According to our old friends anonymous US sources speaking to media. Officially:

Quote

When asked if the United States knew who was responsible, Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Robert Wood, told reporters ahead of the council meeting: "We're not certain at all, we hope to have more information in the coming days."

per Reuters

Got to make sure everyone knows who did it before there's any evidence though.

4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And it looks like, that Russians are already working hard on fabricating their “evidence…

Really, what does he think is being used there? That's a tiny explosion considering the camera is IR. As one of the commentators suggests, likely to be a mine.

Really though, this has brought out all the big brain types. Yes, it can't have been Ukraine because they couldn't blow up 200m all at once. Let's just ignore that every single cubic m of water weighs a ton, and there are a lot more than 1 cubic meter in that dam so a small hole will get bigger very quickly...

[HoonDing]

Quickly, send them some submarines

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

.

Really though, this has brought out all the big brain types. Yes, it can't have been Ukraine because they couldn't blow up 200m all at once. Let's just ignore that every single cubic m of water weighs a ton, and there are a lot more than 1 cubic meter in that dam so a small hole will get bigger very quickly...

Of course, it can be due to a small hole getting bigger. But let me ask you? Who have blown up big portion of the dam during their special retreat operation? Who have been in control of the dam more than a year? And who was systematically raising the water level from record low of 14 meters to the record height of 17.5 meters out of maximum 18, which could be supported by the dam, and which has has caused dramatic increase of the water pressure on any possible leak in the dam? So yeah let’s ignore all these facts and pretend, that Russia has nothing to do with that, right?
 

It does not matter at all if this was an deliberate explosion by russian army or destruction die to absolute maintenance negligence by russian occupation authorities, it’s crystal clear on who’s shoulders lies the fault of destruction of the NK dam.

 

Oh, BTW, are you aware, that during 2.20 local time, the residents of Nova Kakhovka has reported in their local telegram chat groups series of explosions, and the same residents have around 3.00 reported, that russian telegram channels are claiming as well that the dam has exploded?

[Zoraptor]

Well since I was talking big brain takes, none of the dam was blown up, according to the Mega Brain BBC security correspondent and the Ukrainians were just waiting to drive tanks straight on across. Yeah, in reality the roadway was gone in two places one due to Ukraine, one due to Russia, and the sluice gates were blown up by HiMARS*, but well, got to claim Ukrainian tanks were imminently going to storm, single file, across the dam as a reason for Russia to blow it up. Of course, if they could do that they just use their ability to literally fly to cross the current gap as well... Funniest thing being, of course, that his own article had before and after pictures clearly showing the prior damage and that they couldn't just drive across. I'd get better analysis from my 3 year old nephew telling me it was Godzilla. Same guy was convinced the Kerch Bridge was hit by 65kg of explosives on a boat too, iirc.

As for the rest, well, Ukraine had damaged the spillway, admitted fact. They also released more water downstream from the five dams they control above the NK one than usual while presumably knowing the ability to spill water downstream was potentially compromised. I doubt there's any real difference between the sound of dam implosion from pressure and explosions, and explosions are non determinative anyway in the absence of wreckage. After all, maybe the Ukrainians decided to do an experiment with HiMARS again and things went wrong... or right.

Mostly though, again, there's zero advantage to Russia in blowing it up, same as Nordstream they get no benefit from it they don't already have. Their side of the river is lower, their defences get flooded, they have more people to evacuate and while they might stop a cross river attack for a few weeks it's a one off that leaves them with no close in defence and Ukraine able to attack knowing that they can't be flooded out in... the peak offensive season of early July. They will also be able to cross further north far more easily across the drained lake than having to make an assault across literal kms of water- which didn't work out well when they attacked the nuclear power plant (another thing people swore blind didn't happen at the time but later turned out did).

Most funny though, no water for Crimea, again, since the intake is off the reservoir. Ho hum.

*since there's likely to be disputation, as there was previously: "Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said.." per WP.

So yeah.

[xzar_monty]

8 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Most funny though, no water for Crimea, again, since the intake is off the reservoir. Ho hum.

As a side note, btw, the main media narrative over here lays no immediate blame on either side, as it really could be either one. But experts do stress the Crimea situation: Crimea's water problems are going to worsen, and that's to Ukraine's definite benefit.

Edited June 7, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Chilloutman]

On 6/6/2023 at 1:20 PM, BruceVC said:

Personally I agree that being neutral is  "helping " Russia but then its more complicated than that for a country like SA. And why I say that is there should be no debate around condemning the invasion, SA condemned the US invasion of Iraq and this invasion and the illegal annexations within Ukraine  is much worse 

But in defense of SA we part of BRICS and most BRICS countries have taken the same stance of being non-aligned 

My biggest concern is always the reality compared to the ideological comments from SA and our foreign affairs and how they dont seem to understand the economic structures  of SA

We do R15 billion a year trade with Russia and we do R1.3 trillion with Western countries. Russia trade and what we gain from Russia is irrelevant and you would assume the Russian sympathizers in the ANC would realise this but they dont and there support is literally based on the Cold War reality where the Soviets " were our friends and helped end Apartheid " (we have discussed this before )

Also what meaningful role could SA play in the war? It doesnt matter  what we publicly say its not going to change or influence Russia or Ukraine and why would it. Lets be honest if we cant even stop  current civil wars, military coups and conflicts in Africa what credibility do we have?

We need to focus on our numerous domestic problems, like the energy crisis, and not do anything to jeopardize investment and job creation. 

 

 

Just a reminder that Ukraine was part of soviets as well

[Sarex]

Nikolai Petrushev claims that Kiev ordered Dnipropetrovsk Hydro station be drained a day before the destruction of the dam. If true this would be pretty damning evidence.

[Malcador]

10 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Quickly, send them some submarines

After ATACMS it will be #CarriersForUkraine

[BruceVC]

28 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Just a reminder that Ukraine was part of soviets as well

Absolutely and I have raised this before. But thats part of the annoying inaccuracy of when people in SA say " Russia helped end Apartheid". It wasnt Russia, it was the USSR 

And it was during the Cold War, it wasnt because they were really our friends. It was ideological

[Mamoulian War]

13 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Nikolai Petrushev claims that Kiev ordered Dnipropetrovsk Hydro station be drained a day before the destruction of the dam. If true this would be pretty damning evidence.

I bet, it is as much true as the genetically modified mosquitoes, pigeons and locusts, about which the  Russians were talking about, when something went wrong at the occupied areas

[Mamoulian War]

It looks like, the Russians are only evacuating their mechanical units, and are leaving people in their flooded homes. On the other hand there are lot of Ukrainian volunteers who are crossing to the former left bank of Dnipro on boats and risking their lives saving stranded people. People in Ochakiv, one of the worst affected towns at the left side, are not so lucky, at the moment, they are very hard to reach by Ukrainians, so they are at least trying to supply these people with food and water by drones.

 

edit: Putin 36 hours after the disaster gave his first order to help the people in the flooded areas.

[Hurlshort]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

edit: Putin 36 hours after the disaster gave his first order to help the people in the flooded areas.

What a Saint.

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

After ATACMS it will be #CarriersForUkraine

Maybe they could buy the Varyag back from China.

[Mamoulian War]

If you would still wonder, why would Russia blow it up? One simple reason. To blackmail again. South of Ukraine will dry up within few weeks, with frequent drought as it was for centuries before building the dam and the canals. Crimea will be supplied by water tankers as before 2022, but everything else will be dry, with no crops to reap. And this will lead to the famine in Africa. Of course Russia will then “generously” offer their crops, for easing the sanctions and peace…

 

a little bit of insight, how south of Ukraine was saved by the dam, and what will happen, if it does not get rebuilt soon…