Ukraine Conflict - Continues

[xzar_monty]

This is extremely interesting. Highly recommended for anyone interested in the conflict.

 

[Malcador]

19 hours ago, Lexx said:

Not sure if Ukraine would even agree to that. As far as I am aware, they still want to take back their lost territory.

Depends a lot on what the US thinks, if they want to wrap this up (apparently Jake Sullivan is of this opinion), then Ukraine really won't have much choice

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Depends a lot on what the US thinks, if they want to wrap this up (apparently Jake Sullivan is of this opinion), then Ukraine really won't have much choice

Well, not quite. Yes there's a lot of pressure building up inside Washington right now to find a "diplomatic" end to the war. But high-level US officials, including Sullivan, have said the trick is to be able to ensure Russia is not able to "come back for more" later on after rebuilding their forces.

[Gfted1]

I dont know why the US would be interested in wrapping it up? Were not losing anything in it. Warfare is business, and business is booming (excuse the pun). Every single weapon we give them needs to be replaced in our inventory, and now some European countries are buying our equipment like theyre planning to storm Russia themselves (Poland in particular). In a bit of black humor, this is a proxy war for the US which completely exposed Russia as a legitimate conventional threat. We can fight to the last Ukrainian.

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

Warfare is business, and business is booming

Warfare is business, but it is not only business, nor even predominantly business, so your analysis is rather too simplistic. Which means there is no way the US can fight to the last Ukrainian (which I don't think you ever meant seriously, as the claim is so patently absurd).

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

But high-level US officials, including Sullivan, have said the trick is to be able to ensure Russia is not able to "come back for more" later on after rebuilding their forces.

Quite a few of the political analysts I've read have also pointed out that anything that Russia could look upon as victory (or even anything other than a defeat) would both justify its original decision to attack and look like a devastating / humiliating loss for the entirety of "the West", whichever way you want to define it. The US, of course, has already demonstrated remarkable weakness in Syria by first defining a red line and then doing absolutely nothing when it was crossed, but a victory for Russia wouldn't only humiliate the US, it would humiliate the whole world-view of "the West". What the long-term consequences of that would be, no one can say, but they certainly wouldn't be very good.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

I dont know why the US would be interested in wrapping it up? Were not losing anything in it. Warfare is business, and business is booming (excuse the pun). Every single weapon we give them needs to be replaced in our inventory, and now some European countries are buying our equipment like theyre planning to storm Russia themselves (Poland in particular). In a bit of black humor, this is a proxy war for the US which completely exposed Russia as a legitimate conventional threat. We can fight to the last Ukrainian.

Impacts on other business negatively, also is general instability and a risk of things escalating as well, so have to balance against that. Maybe is a distraction from China also threatening 10,000 years of darkness in the Pacific region

[Gfted1]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Warfare is business, but it is not only business, nor even predominantly business, so your analysis is rather too simplistic. Which means there is no way the US can fight to the last Ukrainian (which I don't think you ever meant seriously, as the claim is so patently absurd).

Theyll fight as long as they see fit, and we'll keep the light on.  

[Keyrock]

3 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

I dont know why the US would be interested in wrapping it up? Were not losing anything in it. Warfare is business, and business is booming (excuse the pun). Every single weapon we give them needs to be replaced in our inventory, and now some European countries are buying our equipment like theyre planning to storm Russia themselves (Poland in particular). In a bit of black humor, this is a proxy war for the US which completely exposed Russia as a legitimate conventional threat. We can fight to the last Ukrainian.

Exactly. The winners in this war are Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and so on, plus the politicians that the aforementioned military hardware companies are bribing to continue sending "defensive weapons" to Ukraine. The longer this goes the more they win. EVERYBODY else loses.

“War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives.” - Major General Smedley D. Butler, the most decorated Marine in US history at the time of his death in 1940.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Keyrock

[xzar_monty]

15 minutes ago, Keyrock said:

Exactly. The winners in this war are Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and so on, plus the politicians that the aforementioned military hardware companies are bribing to continue sending "defensive weapons" to Ukraine. The longer this goes the more they win. EVERYBODY else loses.

Well, no, unless you only consider winning and losing in economic terms, which I find it hard to fathom you'd do.

Russia, for instance, can very clearly win, and win big, by managing to break down Ukraine, and that would be much more meaningful than whatever the military companies are winning in monetary terms. I am strongly inclined to agree with Timothy Snyder (link above) that in a hundred years' time, the meaningful historical question will be that of whether Russia managed to bring Ukraine down or not -- American companies making money will be almost irrelevant in comparison.

[I am reminded of the late David Foster Wallace pointing out that the average American person has, by the time he has reached the age of 20, been exposed to such an overabundance of commercial messages that it will take him enormous effort to recognize that considerations other than economic even exist; and many will indeed fail to do so.]

[HoonDing]

Ukraine is sending its best into the fight while Russia is sending its worst. This makes Ukrainian victory inevitable and will also lead to a stronger Ukraine and a collapsing Russia. A nation must believe in itself, its people, and its cause to thrive.

[Zoraptor]

I suspect one major factor* in US considerations for a ceasefire is worry about the cascade of countries dropping USD trades- not just Russia, but China and even ostensibly US friendly countries; and that has been massively accelerated by events in Ukraine. These sort of things tend to rapidly gather momentum once a critical mass has been reached, and while the US would definitely survive without dollar dominance it would make some stuff... considerably more difficult. Like financing the military on credit, or exporting the inflation from quantitative easing. The EU came out saying that they wouldn't seize- only freeze- Russian state assets for similar reasons last week. Freeze the conflict and you can freeze talking about the sanctions etc and hopefully status quoism reasserts itself.

Oddly enough, countries aren't keen to store their money places where it might get taken by geopolitical whim, nor to use a currency that an external party can block you from using in attempts to ruin your economy/ trade.

*along with distraction from China and a few other things. For events in Ukraine specifically, major concern would be that a failure in their counteroffensive --> general collapse in morale and a far worse end point than a negotiated settlement, now.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

12 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Quite a few of the political analysts I've read have also pointed out that anything that Russia could look upon as victory (or even anything other than a defeat) would both justify its original decision to attack and look like a devastating / humiliating loss for the entirety of "the West", whichever way you want to define it. The US, of course, has already demonstrated remarkable weakness in Syria by first defining a red line and then doing absolutely nothing when it was crossed, but a victory for Russia wouldn't only humiliate the US, it would humiliate the whole world-view of "the West". What the long-term consequences of that would be, no one can say, but they certainly wouldn't be very good.

I think the West\US will continue to support Ukraine for several reasons but support in the US will continue as long as internal political support continues. MAGA  Republicans are more critical of support but even they just talk about " more scrutiny around spending " and not dropping Ukraine.

But as @Gfted1  mentioned this is not Afghanistan, there are no body-bags and no direct " boots on the ground " and that makes a difference. This war has completely changed Russia's  role in the world and weakened it immensely on numerous fronts so it makes geopolitical policy  sense for the US to continue to support Ukraine for as long as Ukraine wants to continue fighting

But end of the day this is not a war the US is directly involved in despite the rhetoric from some so why not continue to support Ukraine? The amount of aid Ukraine is getting is small compared to US  budget and  certain US industries are making money from increased sales 

And another consideration is the Russian  sanctions\disinvestment  will continue long after the war is over as long as Putins nationalism continues 

And then there is lots of economic grandstanding about " the $ being replaced" ... but what currency will replace it as the worlds reserve currency?The Yuan is only 6% of foreign reserves with currencies like the euro, Yen and Pound being more used as foreign reserves than the Yuan

Because most of  the calls to replace the $ are from Vatniks and anti-Western ideologues and they mention the Yuan but  why would anyone realistically  believe you can trust China more than the US to maintain the  world's reserve currency? This is  the same country that implemented " zero-Covid " and then dropped it suddenly. 

But in closing Ukraine will decide if it wants to end the war and I dont see Western support ending around military aid

[bugarup]

21 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I even read one historian of Eastern Europe claim that were Putin to declare the Ukrainians as friends of Russia, Russian citizens would be seen carrying Ukrainian flags and declaring their love for Ukraine in a matter of weeks. Impossible to demonstrate, of course (as it won't happen), but doesn't sound too implausible. [And no, I am not suggesting that the Russians are a unique group in this regard.]

Oh they absolutely would. And then get all butthurt if Ukrainians for some mysterious reason would not reciprocate their love and friendship and blame it on Ukrainians being petty and unreasonable.

Prigozhin, by the way, is very candid about russia's goals, none of that denazify crap for gullible idiots. Like, quoting, "We minced the huge amount of Ukrainian armed forces and can tell ourselves the goal of special operation was achieved. Theoretically, russia got its fat loot by obliterating a large part of active Ukrainian males and terrorizing another large part of population into fleeing from Ukraine. russia cut for itself Azov sea and large chunk of Black sea and created a land corridor to Crimea. Now there is only one thing to do: to take root, claw in those territories we already have."

So yeah nah, I'm not wringing my hands about how those greedy 'murican corporations get even fatter on weapon supplies as long as these people are at the very least pushed back into their borders. 

[Keyrock]

14 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I suspect one major factor* in US considerations for a ceasefire is worry about the cascade of countries dropping USD trades- not just Russia, but China and even ostensibly US friendly countries; and that has been massively accelerated by events in Ukraine. These sort of things tend to rapidly gather momentum once a critical mass has been reached, and while the US would definitely survive without dollar dominance it would make some stuff... considerably more difficult. Like financing the military on credit, or exporting the inflation from quantitative easing.

The hegemony of the US Dollar is coming to an end, that's for sure.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Keyrock said:

The hegemony of the US Dollar is coming to an end, that's for sure.

I doubt it, ideological statements are not the same as data and economic realities 

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/04/16/us-dollar-death-shark-tanks-kevin-oleary-says-people-should-get-over-de-dollarization-fears-heres-why/

 

[kanisatha]

23 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

I dont know why the US would be interested in wrapping it up? Were not losing anything in it. Warfare is business, and business is booming (excuse the pun). Every single weapon we give them needs to be replaced in our inventory, and now some European countries are buying our equipment like theyre planning to storm Russia themselves (Poland in particular). In a bit of black humor, this is a proxy war for the US which completely exposed Russia as a legitimate conventional threat. We can fight to the last Ukrainian.

We've spent a lot of money supporting the Ukrainians, and that can be seen as a loss to us, as many Americans do. And furthermore, in a zero-sum way of looking at the conflict, it would be very damaging to long-term US and Western strategic interests if Russia is able to convince many others in the world that they "won" and the West "lost," as @xzar_montyhas pointed out.

[kanisatha]

20 hours ago, Keyrock said:

The winners in this war are Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and so on, plus the politicians that the aforementioned military hardware companies are bribing to continue sending "defensive weapons" to Ukraine. The longer this goes the more they win. EVERYBODY else loses.

Sure. All those thousands of Ukrainians are dying just to help out our defense industries. They don't really care about someone invading and occupying their home, and are fighting the invaders only because we made them do it.

If you're one of those leftists who hate our military and our defense industries, at least just come out and say so. I for one, as an American, am so very happy that we have such awesome companies as Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman who are helping to keep me safe.

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

I doubt it, ideological statements are not the same as data and economic realities 

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/04/16/us-dollar-death-shark-tanks-kevin-oleary-says-people-should-get-over-de-dollarization-fears-heres-why/

 

Somehow I'm not sure Kevin O'Leary is an authority on this.

[BruceVC]

13 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Somehow I'm not sure Kevin O'Leary is an authority on this.

I dont know who he is but here is another link on this topic, its originally from Bloomberg

https://www.sharesbazaar.com/news-article/RT248ZDWRGG001

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by BruceVC

[Malcador]

18 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

For events in Ukraine specifically, major concern would be that a failure in their counteroffensive --> general collapse in morale and a far worse end point than a negotiated settlement, now.

if it fails, Kuleba and pals will probably skip ATACMS and ask for Minutemen.

[Keyrock]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Sure. All those thousands of Ukrainians are dying just to help out our defense industries. They don't really care about someone invading and occupying their home, and are fighting the invaders only because we made them do it.

You misunderstand. I'm not saying the Ukrainians don't care about their land, I'm saying we don't care about the Ukrainians. And by "we" I mean the current administration, not ordinary Muricans, us regular folks don't really have much of a say in this.

As far as whether I'm "one of those leftists", I'm actually a libertarian. Make of that what you will.

[Malcador]

Do leftists really hate the military in the US, anyway ?

[Keyrock]

11 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Do leftists really hate the military in the US, anyway ?

In a weird turn of events, the Democrats are the ones that are pushing to keep this war going, while the Republicans are the mostly pushing for a cease fire and getting a diplomatic end to this war. That could, of course, just be because the Democrats are the ones in power right now. Were a Republican administration in charge, they may well be beating the war drums just as hard and the Dems would be playing the part of the contrarians. They all play for (mostly) the same team anyway. The whole left vs right thing is a distraction. The real teams are Team 1% vs Team 99%, they always have been.

[HoonDing]

"The hegemony of the US Dollar is coming to an end, that's for sure. "

The currency of the Pax Amerikana/"rules" based order has never been the US dorrah, but human lives.