Ukraine Conflict - Continues

[Malcador]

 

Whoops, wrong Tweet

Edited March 19, 2023 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

Timothy Snyder in front of UN security council on Rusophobia.

 

[xzar_monty]

The Russian discourse can be seriously weird. (Btw, it would take some serious demonstration to convince me that Mr. P is using body doubles.)

 

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Timothy Snyder in front of UN security council on Rusophobia.

 

This is one of the most insightful and accurate assessments I have ever seen around debunking the term " russophobia " 

[Gorth]

12 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

The Russian discourse can be seriously weird. (Btw, it would take some serious demonstration to convince me that Mr. P is using body doubles.)

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65007289

Real Putin or body double visiting Mariupol?

Edit: Not expecting you to know, just a guess (I think it's not a double visiting the place)

[BruceVC]

11 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

The Russian discourse can be seriously weird. (Btw, it would take some serious demonstration to convince me that Mr. P is using body doubles.)

 

I watched this Codex, apparently he has been using doubles for years but I question the number of doubles he has 

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, Gorth said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65007289

Real Putin or body double visiting Mariupol?

 

Thats the real Putin IMO, it provided a good propaganda opportunity especially people thanking him for having a new flat 

[xzar_monty]

As someone who favors Occam's Razor[*], I would say it's the real one. I would basically vote for the real one every time unless there's some pretty strong evidence to the contrary.

 

[*] Using Occam's Razor, the most probable explanation is that the term refers to the razor of someone called Occam.

 

EDIT: That address by T. Snyder is excellent. Thanks a lot, @Mamoulian War.

Edited March 20, 2023 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

This warrant puts SA in another invidious position

In 2015 we should have arrested al-Bashir when he came to SA. We were correctly criticized and after this SA decided to " leave " the ICC which we never did. This month we now officially back in the ICC

And now this new warrant with attention back on SA around " what we going to do " ....obviously we should arrest Putin but we also neutral in this conflict. I hope Putin doesnt come because it just puts more pressure on our government around something they are trying to be neutral about

But then we must leave the ICC but we have just reaffirmed our commitment 

 

 

 

 

[pmp10]

14 hours ago, Malcador said:

 

Whoops, wrong Tweet

The official position is that it has been clipped out of context.
Supposedly he only spoke about 'west in general' and not Poland, also meant 'war with Russia in the eventual future' not this one.
Besides the idea is absurd, Poland is way too soft to fight even if it had the means or independence to do so.

The really curious part is if this clip was made by Russians or Ukrainians. 

[Malcador]

Probably the journalist being overly dramatic, but the Russians have made relatively rapid gains there recently.

[Mamoulian War]

The attack on Avdiivka started in march 2022. So almost half year sooner than attack on Bakhmut. It is much smaller stronghold than Bakhmut, and IIRC smaller than Soledar. It was always within high possibility, that it can fall sooner, than Bakhmut.

 

@xzar_monty and a little bit more "speculations" about the visit of Mariupol. The "citizens" are again the same people, which are on all of his pictures
 

 

[BruceVC]

13 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

The attack on Avdiivka started in march 2022. So almost half year sooner than attack on Bakhmut. It is much smaller stronghold than Bakhmut, and IIRC smaller than Soledar. It was always within high possibility, that it can fall sooner, than Bakhmut.

 

@xzar_monty and a little bit more "speculations" about the visit of Mariupol. The "citizens" are again the same people, which are on all of his pictures
 

 

OMG...so the visit is probably a fake 

[Malcador]

And he didn't greet Xi today, obviously fearing assassination (or something).

[HoonDing]

Why is a 60-year old granny FSO?

[pmp10]

With winter officially over it is a good moment to summaries the energy war.
So in short term it clearly failed.

The European gas storage levels are still over 60% and are unlikely to drop much by now.

And that's partially because the winter was second warmest on record.

Consequently the demand dropped and gas prices are back to 2021 levels.

Of course it still has a nasty effects of driving up prices and inflation but it is no longer enough to shake-up the politics in Europe.
I'd say that barring a record-cold winter it is now unlikely EU will change its policy over Russian energy. 

[Lexx]

Climate crisis saved our asses.

[Malcador]

Sort of the level of Ja Rule chiming in, but hearing from Bolton on this was too amusing to not share.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Sort of the level of Ja Rule chiming in, but hearing from Bolton on this was too amusing to not share.

To be fair, John Bolton has a vested interest in not wanting someone arrested for war crimes.

[xzar_monty]

13 hours ago, BruceVC said:

OMG...so the visit is probably a fake 

No, that doesn't follow at all. Putin probably went there, but he went with his troupe.

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, pmp10 said:

With winter officially over it is a good moment to summaries the energy war.
So in short term it clearly failed.

The European gas storage levels are still over 60% and are unlikely to drop much by now.

And that's partially because the winter was second warmest on record.

Consequently the demand dropped and gas prices are back to 2021 levels.

Of course it still has a nasty effects of driving up prices and inflation but it is no longer enough to shake-up the politics in Europe.
I'd say that barring a record-cold winter it is now unlikely EU will change its policy over Russian energy. 

Yes I didnt ever believe anyway  that people were going to freeze and starve to death in the EU despite the Russian propaganda due to sanctions on Russia 

Do you remember this video, it was so cringe  it made me laugh 

 

 

 

[xzar_monty]

Apparently Ukraine has managed to destroy cruise missiles in Crimea, with drones. Impressive if true.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/21/russian-cruise-missiles-destroyed-in-crimea-blast-ukraine-says

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

No, that doesn't follow at all. Putin probably went there, but he went with his troupe.

just for the sake of more speculations
 

 

[xzar_monty]

My take would be "all three", given what can happen with differences in angle, lighting, etc.

You can see a similar phenomenon with some "Before and After" photos that are intended to portray the effectiveness of, say, some fitness regime. Generally what you see, once you subtract the extraneous effects, is that essentially nothing has happened.

[BruceVC]

18 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

My take would be "all three", given what can happen with differences in angle, lighting, etc.

You can see a But  phenomenon with some "Before and After" photos that are intended to portray the effectiveness of, say, some fitness regime. Generally what you see, once you subtract the extraneous effects, is that essentially nothing has happened.

But do you accept that a Putin double could have made the Mariupol trip?

Monty never underestimate  how deep the rabbit hole can go