Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[Lexx]

tbh at this point I think we simply do not have any Leopard tanks to give. Just few months ago in a training exercise with our new Pumas, it was found out that not a single one of them was in actual working condition, so...

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, Lexx said:

tbh at this point I think we simply do not have any Leopard tanks to give. Just few months ago in a training exercise with our new Pumas, it was found out that not a single one of them was in actual working condition, so...

Well that's for Germany, but lots of Leopards around.  For example, Canada has some, I'm sure we can give them all away, the US will happily fleece us on replacements. Butler was on to something

Edited January 23, 2023 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

@pmp10 some insights on possible Russian struggle to modernize/refurbish tanks.

 

[Mamoulian War]

Evolution of the Russian Tactics. Most of the tweets are bout the Blitzkrieg, which was succesful in the south, but cost them a lot in the north.

 

 

[xzar_monty]

13 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

A lot of our politologues (is that a correct english word?)

Politologists, not -logues. Interestingly, this word is rarely used in English.

[Gorth]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Evolution of the Russian Tactics. Most of the tweets are bout the Blitzkrieg, which was succesful in the south, but cost them a lot in the north.

 

 

An interesting breakdown of the early events...

[pmp10]

According to Ukrainian intelligence the spring/early summer period will be decisive for the war.
Makes sense as almost all major factors can now be predicted, except for the effectiveness of newly conscripted Russian troops. 

 

7 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

@pmp10 some insights on possible Russian struggle to modernize/refurbish tanks.

 

Sure, but that's the corners cut in pursuit of quantity.
A lot of 'make-do' decisions have likely been made when industry was set on semi-war footing.
Doesn't necessarily mean they will be far less effective with somewhat less advanced optics.

[Malcador]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-formally-requests-german-permission-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-11674558492

Wonder what a significant amount of Abrams will be. 

[xzar_monty]

Sauli Niinistö, the president of Finland, visited Ukraine today. He is known for being very considered in his statements, probably because of his background as a lawyer. The huge change in the Finnish stance towards Russia can be seen in this comment, coming from a man who has just visited Bucha: "We have seen the cruelty of the attackers, and the suffering of the civilians. This, however, taught me nothing new about Russia."

[Lexx]

We're sending tanks now. /Edit: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/krieg-in-der-ukraine-deutschland-schickt-leopard-panzer-a-e2dde871-88d0-4cf5-8aae-482d58fd850f

Edited January 24, 2023 by Lexx

[xzar_monty]

Just read about that, too. What exactly changed? Nothing I've read has pinpointed this.

[majestic]

Cynical take: Either the US promised to not replace Leopard 2s with the Abrams or Sleepy Joe is perhaps walking back on his odd bit of Trumpist US car industry protectionism. It was not very popular with German car manufactures, and they pretty much run the country.

[Malcador]

https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/23/us-to-support-serbia-amid-tensions-with-kosovo-if-belgrade-joins-russian-sanctions

"If Serbia fully participates with the West then Washington and Brussels may ask Kosovo to meet Serbia's demand in establishing "communities of Serb majority municipalities" in northern Kosovo.  "

Good old ruled based order.

 

[Sarex]

32 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/23/us-to-support-serbia-amid-tensions-with-kosovo-if-belgrade-joins-russian-sanctions

"If Serbia fully participates with the West then Washington and Brussels may ask Kosovo to meet Serbia's demand in establishing "communities of Serb majority municipalities" in northern Kosovo.  "

Good old ruled based order.

 

This is not even the whole story. That is the carrot, the stick is that if we don't stop lobbing against Kosovo joining any international organization (we don't have to acknowledge them as a country but they can then be a UN member so it doesn't matter), they will pull any funding from the EU and reinstate visa requirements and as an aside they said that in that case Kosovo can still join EU security council and NATO (that is what would happen officially at least).

Edit: Just to add, establishing "communities of Serb majority municipalities" in northern Kosovo, is something that what signed in the Brussels accords in which the EU was the guarantor. So they are offering us something they already screwed us on.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Sarex

[Malcador]

"We will apply for reimbursement to the European Union – it will be another test of goodwill," Morawiecki said.

https://news.yahoo.com/warsaw-ask-eu-foot-bill-153900347.html

Edited January 24, 2023 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

Different look on the Leopards...

 

[Gorth]

Maybe that German guy is not a bad poker player?...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64391272

 

US President Joe Biden's administration is expected to announce plans to send at least 30 M1 Abrams tanks.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also reportedly decided to send at least 14 Leopard 2 tanks.

Russia's ambassador to the US blasted the news as "another blatant provocation".

 

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

Russia's ambassador to the US blasted the news as "another blatant provocation".

Nothing surprising about this, but it is interesting, in my view. For Russia, the war in Ukraine is not a provocation, an aggression or a war, it's just an operation, and any negative reactions to it are provocations. Reminds me of what has been said here in northern Europe: it is impossible not to provoke Russia. Whenever they want to be provoked, they will find or create something (like attack their own in order to justify an attack outside).

[Lexx]

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Different look on the Leopards...

 

Interesting video. No idea how much truth is in it since I have no real idea of the topic, but it does kinda feel again as if Poland was just bluffing / puffing for their own elections.

/edit: Some of the video comments go into more detail of why Poland can't send the tanks (again, no idea how valid), so as usual it's not as black and white as it seems at first.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Lexx

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, Lexx said:

/edit: Some of the video comments go into more detail of why Poland can't send the tanks (again, no idea how valid), so as usual it's not as black and white as it seems at first.

Depends on how commited they are to spiting the face.
The point was to force arms escalation, not get Poland into major trouble. 

Of course it would win PIS some votes, so the temptation is always there. 

[Malcador]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/will-ukraine-wind-making-territorial-concessions-russia

Interesting spectrum of opinions.

[kanisatha]

20 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Sauli Niinistö, the president of Finland, visited Ukraine today. He is known for being very considered in his statements, probably because of his background as a lawyer. The huge change in the Finnish stance towards Russia can be seen in this comment, coming from a man who has just visited Bucha: "We have seen the cruelty of the attackers, and the suffering of the civilians. This, however, taught me nothing new about Russia."

Unfortunately, at least until Turkey's elections later this year, Finland and Swededn will be blocked from joining NATO by Erdogan. He is trailing in the polls and will fully use "being tough" and standing firm" against Sweden and NATO as a way to prop up his support among certain voting blocs.

[kanisatha]

20 hours ago, Lexx said:

We're sending tanks now. /Edit: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/krieg-in-der-ukraine-deutschland-schickt-leopard-panzer-a-e2dde871-88d0-4cf5-8aae-482d58fd850f

Biden has also caved and will now be sending Abrams to Ukraine.

And apparently the US and NATO have now also agreed with Ukraine that in any spring offensive by Ukraine in the south it would be okay for Ukraine to go after Crimea, which until now had been a red line even for the West. And all the weapons being supplied are apparently to make it possible for Ukraine to shift to NATO operational strategy and tactics vis-a-vis high-intensity combined arms operations.

[Chilloutman]

problem is that you can't use NATO tactics without air superiority - its like baseline of NATO tactic. Otherwise all ground forces are just sitting ducks. And I highly doubt Ukraine can achieve air superiority any time soon if ever

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

problem is that you can't use NATO tactics without air superiority - its like baseline of NATO tactic. Otherwise all ground forces are just sitting ducks. And I highly doubt Ukraine can achieve air superiority any time soon if ever

Netherlands has already promised, that they will pay for F16s for Ukraine, if someone puts the jets on the table. There are some "rumours" that UA pilots are already training on F16s. No one sane enough would confirm that information for us though So take it as a psyops for now