Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[Malcador]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/2/13/russia-ukraine-live-kyiv-says-energy-system-withstanding-attacks

NATO head Shang Tsung Jens Stoltenberg proclaims "It has begun"

"NATO’s secretary general says a feared new major Russian offensive in Ukraine has already started.

“We see no sign whatsoever that [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin is preparing for peace. … What we see is President Putin and Russia still wanting to control Ukraine,” Jens Stoltenberg told reporters at a news conference in Brussels.

“We see how they are sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities,” he said. “The reality is that we are seeing the start [of a new offensive] already.”

Stoltenberg also said he expected the issue of fighter jets to be discussed at a two-day meeting of NATO defence ministers that starts on Tuesday.

He stressed that NATO countries supplying combat aircraft to Ukraine would not make the alliance part of the conflict.

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

More news about Vuhledar offensive. 130 Russian vehicles destroyed in one week.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/13/7389085/

 

and the aftermath of the offensive in Russia. Prigozhin is going full auto on MoD, magnifying the infighting inbetween Russian factions.

 

[HoonDing]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-expected-raise-munitions-stockpile-targets-war-depletes-reserves-2023-02-13/

Putin sama playing 76D chess after all.

[Malcador]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/us-ukraine-war-critical-moment/

"“It feels like we are playing for a long war,” said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. “I think it’s at odds with what so many people would hope for, that we’re actually trying to help Ukraine win militarily.”

 

 

She added, “It feels like a moment of really high uncertainty.”

Biden and his top aides say they are determined to back Ukraine as long and as fully as possible. But they warn that the political path will get tougher once Ukraine has exhausted the current congressional package, which could happen as early as this summer.

Some Western leaders have harbored reservations about sending certain types of heavy weaponry to Ukraine, worried about a direct confrontation with Russia, especially after Putin signaled a willingness to use nuclear weapons."

[Gorth]

Old but not out... I remember these old Leopard 1 tanks (I used to live near the coast as a young man, where the army had the target practice and general training area for gunnery and the occasional large scale NATO maneuvers)

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/denmark-will-hand-over-leopard-1-tanks-to-ukraine/

I thought Denmark had sold them as scrap. Turned out they were sold to a German company to be converted into some other kind of military vehicle. Now they (the Danish government) are buying them back, to be refurbished according to Ukrainian needs and then to be shipped off to the Ukrainian army instead.

Old, but still with decent fire control equipment and a nice 105mm gun. I think they last saw active combat in Bosnia several decades ago by now...

[Malcador]

https://www-spiegel-de.translate.goog/politik/deutschland/boris-pistorius-spd-panzerkoalition-fuer-ukraine-laeuft-nicht-ganz-so-berauschend-a-34da9cf5-c947-43dc-afb3-fb79995fe4d4?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

"According to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, plans for the rapid delivery of dozens of European Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine are progressing slowly. It doesn't look "quite so exciting - to put it mildly," said the SPD politician on Tuesday at the sidelines of a meeting of the international contact group for arms deliveries to Ukraine.

 

In addition to the German commitment to deliver 14 Leopard 2 A6s, there has only been an announcement from Portugal that three such tanks will be made available. More A6 are currently not in discussion, said Pistorius. Leopard 2 A4 tanks from Poland may have problems in terms of tank condition and serviceability."

 

[kanisatha]

Well, the vast majority of tanks now left in the RU army are T-72s, with a hefty number of T-64s as well, so Leopard 1 and Challenger 1 tanks will be more than a match for them.

[pmp10]

More western worries about ammunition availability.

It's another one of the 'we can't do it forever' messages from the west.
You can sense a strong assumption that the fighting will peak in intensity this summer.

[Mamoulian War]

@xzar_monty another “accident” which manages to bring up the questions who? and how?

 

[xzar_monty]

So, "near" the Institute, but not in it, I gather.

[Lexx]

Yeah, I lol'd about that as well. "Near" .. how near? 1m, 1km, 10km?

[BruceVC]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3297356/opening-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-at-the-ninth-ukraine/

Here are the comments from yesterday of Lloyd Austin at the  Ninth Ukraine Defense Contact Group

Its powerful words and accurate. You cant dispute almost everything he says, to quote some of  the truths he mentions

"

And we're here to reaffirm our resounding support for a free and sovereign Ukraine.

Nearly one year ago, Putin began his unprovoked and indefensible invasion of Ukraine.

Putin thought that in a matter of days, his forces would seize Kyiv and overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government.

And he thought that the international community would just live with it.

Russia did not prevail. Kyiv did not fall. And Ukraine's friends did not falter.

In the year since Putin's war of choice began, Ukrainian soldiers have won the battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson.They pushed back invading Russian forces with Javelins, Stingers, and other systems donated by the countries in this room.

The world was inspired by the resilience of Ukraine's people and the courage of Ukraine's troops 

Well said 

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

14 hours ago, pmp10 said:

More western worries about ammunition availability.

It's another one of the 'we can't do it forever' messages from the west.
You can sense a strong assumption that the fighting will peak in intensity this summer.

West is thankfully already doing it’s job to solve it. E.g. US has signed 500million deal to manufacture shells for Ukraine.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/15/7389392/

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

So, "near" the Institute, but not in it, I gather.

Yes. I presume, these institutes are very well guarded and, if it was deliberate act, and if it was near enough, it still possibly disrupted the operation of the institute. But as Lexx mentioned, how “near” was not specified.

[xzar_monty]

I thought this analysis was extremely interesting. How true it is, I don't know.

But it reminded me of the fact how much cultures differ in things like this. The French are notoriously prone to demonstrating, rioting and protesting -- and apparently the Russians are something of an opposite to that, priding themselves on their ability to suffer. As far as diplomacy goes, I remember reading something about how the Israeli are the most argumentative and confrontational negotiators, whereas the Japenese are their opposite in this regard. (The Israeli are also proven to be very untrustworthy, but that's another story.)

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/14/wagner-founder-prigozhin-admits-he-was-behind-russias-infamous-troll-farms-a80228

Wagner founder confirms he is behind the myriad of Russian troll Internet factories that exist

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/14/wagner-founder-prigozhin-admits-he-was-behind-russias-infamous-troll-farms-a80228

Wagner founder confirms he is behind the myriad of Russian troll Internet factories that exist

His word doesn't make it true, however.  He probably has a hand in many shady dealings, but he also has the grandiosity to match. So whether he's the man "behind" the troll factories or not... I wouldn't want to say.

Fun fact: more than 130 people have confessed to the murder of Swedish politician Olof Palme.

Edited February 15, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Lexx]

Why would he say that anyways. Does he need to brag?

[xzar_monty]

It seems to me that the answer to that question is a resounding yes. I could be wrong, though.

[Gorth]

Sometimes guys needs to compensate for "shortcomings" in other areas if you get my drift. Sometimes it manifests itself as over the top brutality, aggressiveness or bullying. Heck, you see it on the internet too, when guys feel insecure in their masculinity

 

[xzar_monty]

6 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Sometimes guys needs to compensate for "shortcomings" in other areas if you get my drift. Sometimes it manifests itself as over the top brutality, aggressiveness or bullying. Heck, you see it on the internet too, when guys feel insecure in their masculinity

 

He has also grown up in a completely different world from the one we live in. So the possibility that he has been severely brutalized is not negligible at all -- just read some reports on how much violence even very young children are often subjected to in Russia. There is also the possibility that he was a rooster himself while in jail, which probably wouldn't increase his love for humanity.

So while what you're saying is certainly a possibility, it is also quite possible that the roots of his behaviour are much, much darker than that. And of course these two are not the only possibilities.

[Malcador]

18 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

@xzar_monty another “accident” which manages to bring up the questions who? and how?

 

Man, people on Twitter are gullible idiots.

[pmp10]

9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

West is thankfully already doing it’s job to solve it. E.g. US has signed 500million deal to manufacture shells for Ukraine.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/15/7389392/

The timeframe of that production increase was quoted as two years.
Like many of recent Ukraine announcements this will take a long time to make a difference. 

[Zoraptor]

And a year plus for the Abrams. Can't help but wonder if all the pontifications about Russia constantly running out of ordinance was a bit of projection based on how quickly western stocks were being depleted and with the Russians supposedly still firing off three times as many shells per day as Ukraine.

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

Sometimes guys needs to compensate for "shortcomings" in other areas if you get my drift. Sometimes it manifests itself as over the top brutality, aggressiveness or bullying. Heck, you see it on the internet too, when guys feel insecure in their masculinity

Funnily enough, the guy 'executed' via sledgehammer by Wagner has turned up alive and chatting to Prigozhin in a couple of videos. Exactly what they got out of faking it, who knows. Dude definitely loves a good troll.

I also, for some reason, feel compelled to mention that it's nearly a year since Sergei Shoigu was one or more of dead, fired, plotting a coup, executed and having multiple heart attacks. Multiple times, for some of them. I think we can take the same rumours about Prigozhin/ Kadyrov etc with... a moderately large amount of skepticism.

[xzar_monty]

Severe PTSD already in effect, which I'm sure is no surprise to anyone. The devilish thing with modern warfare is that it has the capacity to damage the central nervous system and the psyche to an irreparable degree. All fighting can do this, to an extent, but there's a world of difference between swords and shields vs. what we have today.

I have read a little on wartime traumatization, and it seems that the most brutal experience is when you are targeted by mortar shelling. First, anything that strips you of agency is more traumatizing than everything that doesn't, i.e. if you can fight back, as a person, you will be less damaged neurally and psychologically: it is simply much better for you when you can do something in the circumstances you're in (which goes for everything, not just war). When you're being shelled, you cannot fight back. Being shelled is a lot worse than being bombed, because when you're being bombed, you can see and hear it in advance and you know what's going to happen, so it's less devastating. Mortar fire can start just like that, there is no way of knowing where the next one hits, and the noise can be literally deafening. At least in WW2, this was apparently the most brutal and traumatizing combat experience. I don't know for sure, but I would think that we are still completely incapable of healing the most severe traumas, so this is yet another example of Nietzsche's edict ("If it doesn't kill you, it makes you stronger") being utter rubbish.

I think no one is ever going to even try to take care of these guys: