Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[Mamoulian War]

Story about how daily "life" looks like in Bakhmut from the Ukrainian soldiers perspective. It looks like that the battle for Bakhmut is culminating, both sides are running out of artillery ammo, although Russian keeps sending waves upon waves upon waves of cannon fodder towards the city, which means, that UA side suffers high casualty rate as well. Despite of this, the situation is currently more in favour of Ukraine again, as in mid-December, some time around Zelenskiy's visit to the frontline, the Bakhmut was almost lost, as Russians have almost taken under control the most crucial access road to the city. Thankfully, UA managed to execute successful counterattack, which cleared the area of the Russian presence.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/as-battle-of-bakhmut-nears-culmination-ukraines-artillery-gasps-for-more-ammo

[xzar_monty]

39 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

There is one alternative, which would cost only one lost live. But for that, there would need to be found someone, who has at least half as big balls as Iranian women have

When I wrote "With the current variables", this meant that one of the variables is "Putin is alive".

Putin's death would change things, but we don't know if it would stop the war or change things for the better.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

When I wrote "With the current variables", this meant that one of the variables is "Putin is alive".

Putin's death would change things, but we don't know if it would stop the war or change things for the better.

I see. Blame my english, for missing your point

IMHO, based on what I have read from some Russian sources, army and economy, there is a big chance, his death could stop the war. But even in these theoretical circumstances, The question, if this would change things for better, especially in the longterm, is valid, and impossible to answer.

[Gorth]

Split off from previous thread...

 

[Malcador]

Marders soon, potentially.  Likely.

https://news.yahoo.com/scholz-faces-renewed-heat-germany-091124928.html

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

Hmm… I think, the gif of the bad guy from Far Cry would be fitting for this
 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Aaand, Girkin mad

 

[Malcador]

Well,  Ukraine's got more IFVs coming

https://apnews.com/article/politics-russia-ukraine-war-united-states-government-8107e8dc847f03bd481589c8ea4b1943

Not quite the hundreds the Ukrainian General said he needs, but eh.

[pmp10]

And now serious talk about providing modern western MBT is starting.
Poland and Finland are considering potentially providing Leo 2s. (assuming Germany agrees) 

UK has recently stated it could possibly join in as well. 

[Lexx]

I'm really curious what triggered this change of minds.

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

I'm really curious what triggered this change of minds.

Two members of Finland's parliament started to campaign for pan EU effort to give Leopard 2s to Ukraine in late last year and they were successful in their efforts to find allies all around and not least among German security policy pundits. But as giving Leopards to Ukraine needs permission from Germany and support from Krauss-Maffei, which has now lead to free Leopards campaign in Germany.

[kanisatha]

17 hours ago, Lexx said:

I'm really curious what triggered this change of minds.

I believe it may be a new assessment within NATO that Ukraine has a very realistic chance at winning the war if they're appropriately supported.

[Malcador]

19 hours ago, Lexx said:

I'm really curious what triggered this change of minds.

Sensing it'll devolve into a stalemate without the weaponry.  Although not sure the volume is all that decisive.

[pmp10]

20 hours ago, Lexx said:

I'm really curious what triggered this change of minds.

Turn's out Macron has jumped the gun on the announcement.

Quote

A NATO diplomat said on Friday that France, Germany and the United States had been discussing providing Ukraine with such vehicles, including the American Bradley and the German Marder, but that Mr. Macron went ahead on his own and announced France’s decision.

The other countries had to follow afterwards or are now looking to push the opportunity even further. 
Might be no great design here, I mean the berlin wall fell due to a communication snafu. 

[xzar_monty]

Here's a funny thread concerning Russian reports about their achievements. In a nutshell, a Finnish journalist (from YLE, the national network) points out that Russia claims to have killed hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers with a missile strike on a particular school in Kramatorsk. Well, this journalist happens to be right there and the place looks pretty normal. No ambulances have been spotted, etc.

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

9 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Here's a funny thread concerning Russian reports about their achievements. In a nutshell, a Finnish journalist (from YLE, the national network) points out that Russia claims to have killed hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers with a missile strike on a particular school in Kramatorsk. Well, this journalist happens to be right there and the place looks pretty normal. No ambulances have been spotted, etc.

 

 

It has been said in local Radio News, that Russian milbloggers are already complaining, that Russian MoD is fabricating successes, instead of fighting Ukrainian military.

[HoonDing]

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by HoonDing

[Malcador]

Grinding way of war.

[Mamoulian War]

This was posted yesterday by Yuri Butusov war journalist directly from Soledar. I have absolutely no clue, how realistic is what he posted, as most of the people who I follow suggest two things. Either UA is going to retreat, to minimize casualties, or that there is psyops war going on about Soledar, and everyone lies, on what is really going on there. WarMonitor said few hours ago, there is again informational embargo from UA side on the situation there.

Oh and Shoigu wants to introduce AI to the battlefield. Man wonders, what can go wrong with the current Russian track-record

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/10/7384232/

 

 

[Zoraptor]

Certainly propaganda, but the recent pictures of Prigozhin in the Salt Mines are pretty conclusive since they're west of Soledar. And since he's there they're likely to consider it to be relatively safe too. Even Zelensky implied it would fall imminently yesterday.

lol at the tank in the background.

On a more personal note, one of my best friends from primary school is missing there, though I would not have seen him for upwards of 30 years. Moral of the story: don't be best friends with me in primary school since my other best friend had a building fall on him in the Christchurch earthquake.

On the positive side there has been almost no coverage here of it, which makes me think he may have been captured instead. Would mirror the case of the idiot influencers who went to Iran and photographed themselves outside a military base who had complete radio silence in the media. There is a Beeb article about it, but he's specifically described as British in that.

[Mamoulian War]

Situation in Soledar is indeed very complicated. Fall of the city is very possible. UA is not willing to give it up without causing massive casualties to Russia.

This will have a lot of "pictures":

"Official statement of the Wagners":

The above picture/statement has been disputed by a lot of different sources (few of them propagandey):

This one looks more like legit one. But as the guy says, the tunnels are 200km long.

Here is more or less propagandey look at the situation from UA side:

And a statement from 21:00 local time (10.1.2023) by a warreporter Yuri Butusov which is on site. I consider his reporting pretty objective with lack of propaganda, as he is not shy to criticize UA bull****, if needed.

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Today, probably to everyone's surprise Russian MoD denied Wagners claim, that Soledar has fallen...

This says much more about the status of internal Kremlin "warfare", than about the status of Soledar warfare

Also, there is one news, which I an little bit confused. Gerasimov has been announced as a new High Commandant of the SMO, and Surovikin has been appointed as his deputy. From what I have read, I do not understand, if it is some completely new position for Gerasimov's collection, or Surovikin was just demoted. I think it is the second option, as he was praised a lot by Wagnerites, and the timing of the announcement with the Soledar denial makes it suspicious. But as I said, I am not sure. Has anyone noticed this news as well?

[Lexx]

The way russia is using prisoners as scouts for enemy positions is really awful.

[Malcador]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1612560186354302976

 

[Mamoulian War]

Little bit more about their tactics from the same Twitter guy... I am speechless...