Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"

[bugarup]

5 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes I heard its a car accident?

Yeah, got hit by a truck. His car, that is.

Edited November 9, 2022 by bugarup

[Malcador]

Most assume it's Russia tidying him up, they did it before with a DPR official I believe.

21 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

well its obvious trap. I doubt there will be Ukrainian solder feet in Cherson until its completely avoided of Russians or surrounded. I doubt they are keen on another street fight - its very costly and not really needed

They've been blowing bridges, and have heard they were pulling units back.  Seems like this will be a fairly orderly withdrawal more than anything.

[BruceVC]

23 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

well its obvious trap. I doubt there will be Ukrainian solder feet in Cherson until its completely avoided of Russians or surrounded. I doubt they are keen on another street fight - its very costly and not really needed

I doubt its a trap, the Russians place huge importance  on the propaganda to their citizens about how  "well  "the war is going. They wouldn't announce such a significant withdrawal  if it wasn't true  or necessary because of how badly it reflects on Putins War

Here is a post from someone on Codex who follows this war from a military perspective about why the withdraw is real 

 The Russians in Kherson were in a terrible position where their undersupplied units were taking heavy losses and were constantly under the threat of a major breakthrough capturing a large portion of the Russian forces on that side of the river. It started from when Ukraine started getting HIMARS and were able to go after the bridges. And it just got worse and worse month after month as Ukraine relentlessly applied that pressure on Russian logistics and then expanded it to pressure on Russian frontline units.

But Russia spent months trying to ignore or deny there were any significant problems with supplies while also trying to present a false narrative that they were beating the brakes off Ukraine in that area while taking little damage themselves.

But then reality occurs and Russia is exposed. But it comes as even more of a shock to their supporters because they believed the narrative Russia had been claiming about the situation, which obviously can't coexist with the actual reality of Russia being forced to withdraw.

A similar patterns has occurred with other situations where Russia retreats. Russia doesn't acknowledge the precarious position they are in and instead presents a false narrative of strength and success. But then they are forced to retreat. And that shatters the view of those who had believed and repeated the Russian narrative of strength and success.

 

 

 

[Chilloutman]

Well exactly, it does not help the PR for Russia to do this publicly so thats why its fishy

[Zoraptor]

Kind of funny that the one part of the initial Russian invasion that went incontrovertibly well for them was Kherson when strategically they'd have been far better off if it hadn't and those resources had gone into going northwards on the east bank.

Having said that, Kherson has been imminently going to fall with all the Russian troops cut off since early April, and it hasn't 7 months later. It was then imminently going to fall in August as the Russian forces starved, and hasn't three months later. The capacity for Ukraine to actually deliver on forcing the Russians out is pretty much entirely on paper.

22 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Most assume it's Russia tidying him up, they did it before with a DPR official I believe.

The fatality rate of DPR officials has been high right from the outset. And it definitely isn't the Ukrainians doing a lot of the killing. IIRC just about every person in a senior leadership or militia leadership position in 2014 is dead at this point except Girkin/ Strelkov- which is the main reason I'm convinced he's controlled rather than genuine opposition.

[BruceVC]

29 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Well exactly, it does not help the PR for Russia to do this publicly so thats why its fishy

I dont think its possible to hide a withdrawal of this size and significance, no matter how much the Russian media tries to spin it?

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

 

The fatality rate of DPR officials has been high right from the outset. And it definitely isn't the Ukrainians doing a lot of the killing. IIRC just about every person in a senior leadership or militia leadership position in 2014 is dead at this point except Girkin/ Strelkov- which is the main reason I'm convinced he's controlled rather than genuine opposition.

What do you mean by " And it definitely isn't the Ukrainians doing a lot of the killing". Are you saying the Russians are killing DPR officials?

[Chilloutman]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

I dont think its possible to hide a withdrawal of this size and significance, no matter how much the Russian media tries to spin it?

possible but i think this is known for some time so why its big deal just now

[Zoraptor]

Not everything is done for PR reasons, indeed doing stuff for pure PR is always a bad idea if it clashes with strategy. if they've decided Kherson's a waste of resources or whatever then they won't and shouldn't change their minds due to bad 'optics'. Those will change, if they win elsewhere.

It's entirely possible it's been announced in the belief that that means the Ukrainians won't attack but will just let them go. An announcement certainly puts pressure on Ukraine to do so since one of their demands is a full withdrawal, presumably unopposed. It's pretty clear that the claims that the Russians were- for wont of a better term than the wargaming one- 'out of supply' were at minimum exaggerated but they'll still have a lot of equipment and soldiers to withdraw over limited crossing points. Those make lovely choke points for artillery as queues form and on the crossings themselves, have to be defended rigorously by a rearguard you may well end up losing and will definitely have to cross under fire at minimum, can be destroyed or cut off etc. Far better if the enemy just lets you cross unhindered.

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, bugarup said:

I'm reading reports that russians mined everything to hell, so progress is going to be slow because of this reason too. Fingers crossed those scumbags do not destroy the dam as part of their scorched earth doctrine.

...really not waiting for more war crime testimonies, but there is going to be.

Oh, and Gauleiter of Kherson's deputy of sorts, particularly scummy Stremousov, died in a "car accident". There are quite a few theories floating that it was inside job, what methinks is more appropriate "Eat karma, bitch!" than if Ukrainians murked him.

Somebody linked a Deutsche Welle article from 2014, which mentioned a lot of “accidents” to Russian appointed collaborators, after the Green Men were kicked out of Kramatorsk that year. 
 

 

Oh, and this one is really interesting as well

 

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Having said that, Kherson has been imminently going to fall with all the Russian troops cut off since early April, and it hasn't 7 months later. It was then imminently going to fall in August as the Russian forces starved, and hasn't three months later. The capacity for Ukraine to actually deliver on forcing the Russians out is pretty much entirely on paper.

Have you by any chance missed out how fast they forced out Russia out of Kharkiv, while they were to busy reinforcing Kherson?
 

And are you even aware, that Ukraine liberated already more than 50% of the land, which were occupied by Russia after 24th of February? And that was even before the announcement of goodwill gesture in Kherson…
 

Probably not, else you would make more effort to belittle the Ukrainian successes  

 

Does this mean Ukraine will win this conflict? No. Does it means that Russian invasion is one big catastrophe, which is starting to have big political impact at home? Yes.

 

 

[Chilloutman]

well most of the north was just withdrawal of Russian forces rather than some hard offensive on Ukraine side, nothing like taking out heavily entrenched positions or big cities

[Gfted1]

Trench warfare...wow. I suppose it will be morbidly interesting to see how that works out for them in todays age of pinpoint accurate artillery. Those poor conscripts are going to need more tampons.

[Malcador]

16 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Trench warfare...wow. I suppose it will be morbidly interesting to see how that works out for them in todays age of pinpoint accurate artillery. Those poor conscripts are going to need more tampons.

Don't think a day will come when infantry don't dig in.  Both sides have been doing trenches in this war so far, at least those are zig-zagged (all these OSINT-junkies always deride them for doing straight lines, when the idea it's hastily done is unacceptable).

[xzar_monty]

The dilemma of the Russian TV host, very neatly captured. Caveat: I do not speak Russian, so if the subtitles are a joke, do tell me.

(Reading up on the history of various totalitarian regimes. It's interesting to note how the Soviet Union differed from the others. For instance, in fascist Italy or Nazi Germany, as awful as they were, you could, as an ethnic native of those countries, be fairly certain of political and even personal safety if you chose to support the ruling ideology. But in the Soviet Union, nothing provided safety for quite a long time. The knock on the door could come at any time, for anyone, for any reason at all, and the people killed by their own numbered in the millions. This must have left huge, huge scars on the population -- ones that haven't been dealt with.)

Edited November 10, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

Ukraine chasing Russia hard now, Russians on Telegram with some posting about 20k Russians being at risk.

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

On 11/9/2022 at 10:49 PM, Chilloutman said:

well most of the north was just withdrawal of Russian forces rather than some hard offensive on Ukraine side, nothing like taking out heavily entrenched positions or big cities

 

on a more serious note. Yes, of course they were retreating. Because, their losses caused on them by UA Army, became unsustainable. And Ukraine made everything to minimize it loses by not rushing. Their biggest loses were during the breach near Popasna and battle for Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk. Current numbers in Kherson, based on Ukrainian MoD is 1 KIA/WIA UA against 7-8 KIA/WIA RU. So all of their retreat is just a consequence of chain of ****ups since february 24th.

Here is a short summary of the situation from a Russian soldier fighting in Kherson Oboast, which became pretty famous net personality in Russia. He predicts, that if Russia will handle the operation same way as in Kherson, they will lose Crimea as well

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Malcador]

Hm, then again, probably overreaction, I guess.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The dilemma of the Russian TV host, very neatly captured. Caveat: I do not speak Russian, so if the subtitles are a joke, do tell me.

It actually might be true. I have found this. And yes someone speaking Russian better than me (elementary school level  ) would be very helpful if he could to translate for us  

 

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

based on Ukrainian MoD

With their numbers is amazing there are any Russians left.

 

[Zoraptor]

Meanwhile, back in reality...

“You are looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” Milley said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side.” [source]

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The dilemma of the Russian TV host, very neatly captured. Caveat: I do not speak Russian, so if the subtitles are a joke, do tell me.

(Reading up on the history of various totalitarian regimes. It's interesting to note how the Soviet Union differed from the others. For instance, in fascist Italy or Nazi Germany, as awful as they were, you could, as an ethnic native of those countries, be fairly certain of political and even personal safety if you chose to support the ruling ideology. But in the Soviet Union, nothing provided safety for quite a long time. The knock on the door could come at any time, for anyone, for any reason at all, and the people killed by their own numbered in the millions. This must have left huge, huge scars on the population -- ones that haven't been dealt with.)

There can't be a better example of the reality  and dysfunction of  living in a country where the  free media is controlled by the  state and how the  constant propaganda influences how news anchors must report on it 

[BruceVC]

I was thinking of Vals and Comrade's  views that the Russian retreat in Kharkiv was a strategy and how Russia  was " winning " the war in Ukraine, unparalleled copium 

I wonder what they would be saying about the Kherson withdrawal?

 

[bugarup]

Regarding those "Damned if I do, damned if I don't" posts  -- subtitles are correct, but you gotta understand that there is no rule of law in russia, law's just a tool of ruling cleptocracy's.  Nevzorov once dug up some article that makes that old baboon a criminal for starting the war, and so what? So if someone wants to give you 10 years for peaceful protest, they will find a way, and if you're in top caste and killed a five year old on the crosswalk while driving drunk, you can sue his parents for damage to your car and win the case too.

Edited November 11, 2022 by bugarup
punctuation is hard and so is grammar

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, bugarup said:

Regarding those "Damned if I do, damned if I don't" posts  -- subtitles are correct, but you gotta understand that there is no rule of law in russia, law's just a tool of ruling cleptocracy's.  Nevzorov once dug up some article that makes that old baboon a criminal for starting the war, and so what? So if someone wants to give you 10 years for peaceful protest, they will find a way, and if you're in top caste and killed a five year old on the crosswalk while driving drunk, you can sue his parents for damage to your car and win the case too.

Its true and thats the same in most  autocracies and dictatorships. The judicial system is controlled by the state so there is no legal recourse to change leadership or to prosecute leadership 

But you can see changes when you see political or ideological changes in government, that happened in Zimbabwe when Mugabe croaked  in 2019 . You literally saw immediate legal and political change like all the nationalization policies ending  and money even was paid to the white farmers who had their farms  stolen in  the 1999-2002 time period

But Russia needs new ideological leaderships to see real changes