Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[BruceVC]

43 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I'll bite this. 

1) Oil - I've mentioned that the rising oil price will break economies, I've said that at 130, the next recession is guaranteed. We did not reach 140+ ONLY BECAUSE China went into a semi shutdow  on economic activity with their 0 COVID policy, and at the same time Biden has been draining SPR as otherwise the midterms would be a garbage for Dems. 'Paper' Oil market currently is out of sync with realities of the Supply side and while in the USD terms Oil seems to be cheaper, this is largely a factor of the ultra strong USD (keeps getting higher to new historic heights at least per Bloombergs dollar index). Sauds have warned a couple times that the current price is distorted and too low. For non-USD countries, the lower USD price is of little value when their currencies crater against the USD. They still pay a lot for Oil in terms of local purchasing power. 

Guess what, at some point SPR MUST be refilled and China re-opens. 

The 140 was also a Goldmans estimate and some of the banks are now still even more aggresive on the Oil price than mine 100-110 range for the mid winter. Some are at 125.

OPEC+has been consistently delivering quatas below the target and recently they approved a significant reduction to the supply side. 

2) Not sure how you describe the current state of EU economy if not crushed by the energy prices resulting from the gas crunch... (and high oil price in EU terms) 

3) I believe i mentioned this to be a target for 5-10y fwd as a result of USD caused turmoils and lack of trust in political safety (few want to be allowed to be blackmailed). The move to more commodity centric power structure is also described by top dogs in financial markets, see people like Zoltan P. 

4) Well, the BRICS is certainly not being dissolved, and as long as Russia is at War, this will not progress further. However, Russia has not been cut off from the global markets and is still able to do a lot of business. It still has some pull in politics due to being a natural resources giant. It definately did not collapse as people predicted, although I had make jokes about a flash crash of Rouble as well. 

 

I'm seriously worried here, that people do not even read things or see who is the article sourced from and posted on the ZH page. 

 

I'll write about the rest of your commentary later on. It's already a wall of text

As I said I like you so please dont get offended, I am  also not  going to  back and post many of your posts about economic  predictions you have made  because I dont have the interest to spend that type of  time on this debate

You dont make accurate economic predictions, you make posts that are about negative market reactions that align to your ideological views. Technically its not your views, you just repeat what ZH and other anti-Western websites selectively comment on  and thats fine. You are welcome to believe and support anything you want 

And Im sure that you will find that the likes of ZH is ultimately funded by pro-Russian or anti-Western groups which is why you constantly refer to the current economic problems as somehow being the fault of the West when in fact most   of  the economic problems  are actually a consequence and Putins response due to  necessary sanctions to the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine

 In other words if Russia hadnt invaded Ukraine we wouldn't be experiencing the energy crisis and impact on the EU\West financial markets  which drags down much of the worlds markets. But the virus lockdowns and how they broke supply chains has  contributed more towards this global inflation 

But end of the day energy and its impact is about supply and demand so obviously when Putin cuts back on gas to the EU of course its going to impact inflation and cost of living

But Putin is only doing this because he faces sanctions but  he is only facing sanctions  because he invaded Ukraine. The West didnt start this, they responded to Russian militancy

Unless you believe the West should have done nothing about the invasion of Ukraine and the collapse of Ukraine without Western aid on the borders of the EU?

 

 

[Darkpriest]

12 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

I bet Ukrainian people would do anything to be able to worry about life under an underperforming economy instead of living under Nuclear threats and ongoing genicide… 

Sure, I wonder how many people in EU will keep wanting to support that though. 

While we should be doing that, the issue is, as UK case shows, you cannot reslove current issues with more debt as central banks are hell bent on dealing with inflation and currency devaluations. You will only make things worse and you will get elected more radical, less UA helping governments. EU certainly cannot afford much more 'aid'.

 

[xzar_monty]

Interesting take on the nuclear question in the war. I wonder what @kanisatha makes of this.

This was particularly interesting: "I believe Putin’s tactical nuclear weapons are unusable. Even if their vehicles do work, the minute they turn their engines on to move they will be picked up by US and NATO intelligence." I would have thought that Russia was extremely keen to keep its weapons in prime condition, but that was before the war. The war has demonstrated how poorly managed most things are; it's actually been very hard to believe the stuff you see, when it comes to poor management. However, we obviously have no proof that what this guy says is correct (when it comes to the vehicles working or not).

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.html

[Mamoulian War]

@Darkpriest
I understand your worries, but Thankfully, not being able to afford to give much more ‘aid’ did not stop the allies from providing the aid to Soviet Union against Hitler, else many Slavs on this board would not be commenting on this board these days So far, the West got the memo… Doing nothing would in the end cost us much more. The extremists, nationalists and neonazis would rise to power anyway, just with much bigger flow of money to fund their collaboration from Russia… Our family lived under their boots for 41 years, and we do not want to experience forced evictions and jailing on daily basis again  

Edited September 28, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[xzar_monty]

33 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Sure, I wonder how many people in EU will keep wanting to support that though.

Most of them, it appears. Everything is of course subject to change.

 

EDIT: A bit of fun in the middle of all this dreadful warfare. Here's some prime loot the Russians have managed to get. It's not a Holy Avenger +5, it's not the Staff of the Magi and not even a Bag of Holding for puttin' Putin in, but it's wicked cool nevertheless.

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Darkpriest]

35 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

@Darkpriest
I understand your worries, but Thankfully, not being able to afford to give much more ‘aid’ did not stop the allies from providing the aid to Soviet Union against Hitler, else many Slavs on this board would not be commenting on this board these days So far, the West got the memo… Doing nothing would in the end cost us much more. The extremists, nationalists and neonazis would rise to power anyway, just with much bigger flow of money to fund their collaboration from Russia… Our family lived under their boots for 41 years, and we do not want to experience forced evictions and jailing on daily basis again  

Abkut the narrativea, I agree with this guy on a lot of points

https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/changing-the-narrative-one-lie-at-a-time/

[Mamoulian War]

28 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Abkut the narrativea, I agree with this guy on a lot of points

https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/changing-the-narrative-one-lie-at-a-time/

And as much as we love to speak, who is in deeper **** now, we all kind of forgetting about China… IMHO The invasion cost them much more than EU. We’ll see how long they will take it from behind, before they manage to do some interferring action.

 

 

[xzar_monty]

The Kremlin spokesman Peskov has just said that the war, I mean special operation, will continue at least until the whole of the Donetsk area has been "liberated".

In one sense, this is an extremely interesting statement. The meetings in Samarkand were a humiliation for Putin, and not the first one. He doesn't exactly have real allies or even supporters anymore, outside of North Korea et al. I've already read speculation about how some of the recent moves, including the strike on the pipeline, seem to suggest that Russia is trying to do two things: 1) stop the war as soon as possible, 2) ensure as good a starting point for the following negotiations as possible.

What Peskov just said is interesting in this light. Russia's objectives definitely appear to have changed, once again. Or, to express it in Russian terms: Russia's objectives have once again assumed the formulation that they have always had, right from the start.

Whether Russia really intends to get out of the war ASAP is of course unknowable at this point, but there are some interesting things going on.

 

EDIT: A Swedish military specialist called Patrik Hulterström has pointed out that the explosives may have been on the pipelines for years, and they have just been remotely activated. I really hadn't thought of that -- how many of you had? Honestly. Certainly sounds like something Russia might do, given its weaponization tendencies.

Edited September 28, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Lexx]

I saw speculations that there must be 1 bomb that failed to detonate, since there are 4 pipelines, but we only had 3 explosions.

[Zoraptor]

Ah yes, the Russians. Their nuclear delivery vehicles have all fallen apart, but they can put limpet mines on underwater cables and have them detonate remotely years later. Truly they are exactly as competent or incompetent as needed for whatever story is being told.

10 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.html

"Tactical nuclear weapons meanwhile are much smaller warheads with a yield, or explosive power, of up to 100 kilotons of dynamite"

Excellent way to establish your credentials as ex head of CBRN for NATO and the UK, that. TNT, not dynamite.

Doesn't get any better from there.

"The warheads and missiles are probably in reasonable condition but the vehicles they are mounted on are, I believe and have on good authority, in poor condition."

...

The Russians have been using tactical nuclear capable delivery systems from the outset, and not just one or two. A dozen, +/- a few depending on how you classify tactical. Not like they weld nuclear missiles/ bombs to an Iskander or Su-34 anyway, you can give them a nuclear or non nuclear load out. In particular a Khinzal could be fitted to a MiG31 and fired from Moscow to handily hit anywhere in Ukraine.

[xzar_monty]

6 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Ah yes, the Russians. Their nuclear delivery vehicles have all fallen apart, but they can put limpet mines on underwater cables and have them detonate remotely years later. Truly they are exactly as competent or incompetent as needed for whatever story is being told.

Leaving your snarky tone aside, there is a significant difference between something that was built about ten years ago and something that is mostly quite a bit older.

[Darkpriest]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

And as much as we love to speak, who is in deeper **** now, we all kind of forgetting about China… IMHO The invasion cost them much more than EU. We’ll see how long they will take it from behind, before they manage to do some interferring action.

 

 

Yeah, Yuan was bound to fall, as the housing bubble in China got out of hand and started to fall apart since last year. The USD str only accelerates the fall. Same as Japan and the MMT fail with BoJ policy and Yen. 

Both of the countries have been selling US TSY trying to fix their CCY by some form of fixing or selling USDs

China also was vocal about US policies hurting the currencies and that rest of the world pays for US policy failures as they right now export inflation from USA to other areas of the World. 

[Mamoulian War]

16 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Ah yes, the Russians. Their nuclear delivery vehicles have all fallen apart, but they can put limpet mines on underwater cables and have them detonate remotely years later. Truly they are exactly as competent or incompetent as needed for whatever story is being told.

"Tactical nuclear weapons meanwhile are much smaller warheads with a yield, or explosive power, of up to 100 kilotons of dynamite"

Excellent way to establish your credentials as ex head of CBRN for NATO and the UK, that. TNT, not dynamite.

Doesn't get any better from there.

"The warheads and missiles are probably in reasonable condition but the vehicles they are mounted on are, I believe and have on good authority, in poor condition."

...

The Russians have been using tactical nuclear capable delivery systems from the outset, and not just one or two. A dozen, +/- a few depending on how you classify tactical. Not like they weld nuclear missiles/ bombs to an Iskander or Su-34 anyway, you can give them a nuclear or non nuclear load out. In particular a Khinzal could be fitted to a MiG31 and fired from Moscow to handily hit anywhere in Ukraine.

Oh yeah Kinzhal, the epitome of Ruskaya Bolshaya Tekhnika...

https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-hypersonic-missile-kinzhal-fired-from-mig-31-fighter/

[Mamoulian War]

9 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Yeah, Yuan was bound to fall, as the housing bubble in China got out of hand and started to fall apart since last year. The USD str only accelerates the fall. Same as Japan and the MMT fail with BoJ policy and Yen. 

Both of the countries have been selling US TSY trying to fix their CCY by some form of fixing or selling USDs

China also was vocal about US policies hurting the currencies and that rest of the world pays for US policy failures as they right now export inflation from USA to other areas of the World. 

Oh yeah, exporting the inflation worldwide... well it seems it is also a part of the plan how to liquidate Russian's profits Some people were speaking about it few months ago already...

 

[Darkpriest]

Well anyway, Bank of England throws a towel and intervenes in the Bond market, before it even started a real fight with inflation

Still, a long period of Stagflation is a better end result than a full blown debt crisis. 

 

I expect ECB to fold soon as well, as the current sell off so far was at a level of Eurozone crisis. 

 

All eyes on J. Powell today... If he will join the club to help stabilize crashed debt and fx markets. 

[Zoraptor]

4 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Leaving your snarky tone aside, there is a significant difference between something that was built about ten years ago and something that is mostly quite a bit older.

Not really. You can actively maintain most of that older stuff, can't really maintain something clandestine at the bottom of the sea. That's going to get silted over, lose its magnetism, leak, get hit by trawler nets etc etc. And you'd still need to get relatively close to trigger it. And I say that as someone who suggested timer or remote control was used to obfuscate the timing, it's just that obfuscating by years is... lol really. Not necessary, unreliable and that's without the other factors like it removing rather than increasing Russia's leverage.

It is however incredibly funny watching people who spend most of their time saying all Russia's equipment is a joke that doesn't work suddenly deciding that they're highly competent and it worked fine in this particular instance.

11 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Oh yeah Kinzhal, the epitome of Ruskaya Bolshaya Tekhnika...

Doesn't really matter for the point being made. There's simply no shortage of reliable delivery vehicles as he claimed. If anything that makes him look even more stupid, since he said the (warheads and) missiles were probably maintained OK and more or less reliable.

It's like he forgot the air force existed and thought the entire tactical nuclear arsenal was defunct tochkas.

(If anyone is interested there's a list of delivery systems here, and for the non strategic ~tactical~ ones most are deployed by Russia in or around Ukraine)

[Malcador]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html

Probably just CNBC trying to subtly hustle for more money to LM, but is a frightful expenditure of gear in modern war.

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html

Probably just CNBC trying to subtly hustle for more money to LM, but is a frightful expenditure of gear in modern war.

I know this will be a bit funny, but New Zealand said they cannot support UA any longer with equipment, because what UA wants, they don't have it anymore and it would take months to procure. 

They mentioned though that they might still send something, what UA will ask for and they will have it available

[xzar_monty]

30 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

It is however incredibly funny watching people who spend most of their time saying all Russia's equipment is a joke that doesn't work suddenly deciding that they're highly competent and it worked fine in this particular instance.

But who has done this? If you are referring to me, I have done neither. I am making it quite clear that I am not making any strong claims, nor am I an expert on this.

In terms of rhetoric, your comment falls flat on its face because of stuff "spend most of their time" (like, what?), "all Russia's equipment is a joke" and "suddenly deciding", because you're both being incredibly arrogant and referring to things that don't exist (at least not on this forum).

Edited September 28, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Mamoulian War]

15 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I know this will be a bit funny, but New Zealand said they cannot support UA any longer with equipment, because what UA wants, they don't have it anymore and it would take months to procure. 

They mentioned though that they might still send something, what UA will ask for and they will have it available

Some countries are saying, they are running out of equipment, some have started new production as soon, as lend lease and a lot of money was promised to Ukraine, to cover their arm expenditure.

[BruceVC]

27 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I know this will be a bit funny, but New Zealand said they cannot support UA any longer with equipment, because what UA wants, they don't have it anymore and it would take months to procure. 

They mentioned though that they might still send something, what UA will ask for and they will have it available

Well Ukraine must immediately surrender because if NZ cant help them anymore then they have no chance 

[Elerond]

New Zealand probably isn't best example considering their official equipment numbers. If arms stocked somewhere they didn't have much equipment to give in first place. 

[Darkpriest]

Behind UKs decision - paywalled

https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e

In essence, spike in yields caused insufferable pension funds losses and margin calls. 

 

Expect similar in US. Although bonds sell off in US also stopped after BoE panicked

Edited September 28, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

8 minutes ago, Elerond said:

New Zealand probably isn't best example considering their official equipment numbers. If arms stocked somewhere they didn't have much equipment to give in first place. 

It was meant as a joke, no one serious thought NZ would make a significant impact. The US and EU stockpiles per CNBC, thats another case

Edited September 28, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Malcador]

https://www.ft.com/content/1aa35421-35c3-4183-93ea-95c3007a4f3d

Must America save you lazy Euros again ?