Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[Mamoulian War]

Igor Girkin, as much as he is a c**t, is against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. On the other hand, he is vocal, that with proper equipment and leadership, the 300k mobiks would be successful in fulfiling the wargoals of SMO.

He has a lot of followers and some influence in Russia, so hopefully his statement will deescalate the nuclear tensions a little bit.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

No, tanks is not much taboo, than logistic and mechanical issue. Poland was able to give Ukraine 200 tanks, because they were all Soviet Ear tanks, and Ukraine has already very big repair/mechanical/service infrastructure, to take care of them. On the other hand, giving few hundred NATO manufactured tanks would require not only training for riding it, but also training for servicing them, and in many cases, that would need thenpresence of NATO trainers in Ukraine. Few dozens HIMARS, CEZARs, Zuzanas, or PH2000 can be serviced outside of UA. Which is already done in Poland and Slovakia, and most likely Romania as well. For hundreds of tanks, IMO that would be bordering with unsustainability for logistics, unless as I’ve said, NATO people would be present in Ukraine. Which could be seen as direct involvement and escallation. I bet, that NATO is already working on solving that, but unless Russia would cross the red line tomorrow, I do not see to happen that overnight.

Fair enough but doesn't this also apply to HIMARS? They were also undeliverable until it seemed that Ukraine will collapse without them.

If supply chains are really an issue then there is  whole winter to build them up. 

[Malcador]

I think they have enough tanks, they need IFVs and APCs to move all their infantry.  Surprised they've not got a lot of Bradleys at least.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Fair enough but doesn't this also apply to HIMARS? They were also undeliverable until it seemed that Ukraine will collapse without them.

If supply chains are really an issue then there is  whole winter to build them up. 

I think, at the start, it was the same issue as with the tanks, but they got first 4 and then another 4. Currently IIRC they are using 12 HIMARS units. So some kind of logistics must have been prepared before the first 4 arrived. IMHO the big factor in not giving HIMARS to UA right away was big fear, that it really escalates the conflict. But as soon as most of the western heads visited Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, they rhetorics about escalation changed. 
 

Also due to Romania having HIMARS already deployed since february 2021. There is already existing maintenance infrastructure with servicemen very close to Ukraine, and I think this also played a role in deploying it. 
 

The westenr tanks on the other hand:

Bulgaria - 0
Czechia - first 14 Leopards will arrive soon as a reimbursement for Soviet tanks donayed to Ukraine this year
Hungary - 44 + 12 Leopards still on order, not delivered yet
Romania - 0
Slovakia - 0 (IIRC 15 will be delivered at some point as a replacement for BMPs donated to Ukraine.
Poland - 180 Korean K2s ordered, 116 M1 Abrams delivered soon as a replacement for Soviet tanks donated to Ukraine, 249 Leopards already there.

So only Poland has at the moment capacities to service western tanks, and only Leopards. And because they are German tanks, well, we all already know how theie current willingness there looks like. They are willing to reimburse 
NATO allies for donation of Soviet tanks to Ukraine, but not willing to made that last required step yet. Every other western tank model has no maintenance infrastructure in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine (unless something classified happened in the kast 7 months).

 

EDIT: IMHO the Kharkiv Oblast liberation might have made some countries more willing to deliver some tanks to UA, than before, so I believe (my personal feeling, which I cannot back with any data) there are already some hard talks going on about these deliveries. And the current nuclear blackmail and Nordstream situation, might accelerate it further.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[pmp10]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

I think they have enough tanks, they need IFVs and APCs to move all their infantry.  Surprised they've not got a lot of Bradleys at least.

That's the funny thing about it.
Western APCs are okay and have been delivered but IFVs are not.

This limitation seems especially arbitrary. 

[kanisatha]

11 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Btw, according to Russian propaganda, 99.92 percent of voters in Donetsk wanted to join Russia.

I have to be honest. I am utterly shocked, and confused!, that the vote wasn't 120%.

[Mamoulian War]

There are rumours flying around, that Wagner Commander Aleksey “Terek” Nagin was eliminated near Bakhmut.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Elerond]

6 hours ago, pmp10 said:

That's the funny thing about it.
Western APCs are okay and have been delivered but IFVs are not.

This limitation seems especially arbitrary. 

Poland gave Ukraine some of their old BMP-1s.

Slovakia also send 30 BMP-1s to Ukraine and received 15 Leopards from Germany as compensation  

Slovenia send 35  BVP M80As to Ukraine

Greece is currently in process to send 40 BMP-1s to Ukraine.

Germany again approved selling 16 restored Marders to Ukraine

There maybe more that are send without public knowledge

EDIT: With IFVs there aren't that much western ones to offer as Eastern European countries have mostly relied on modernized BMPs and BMP variants. So they don't have anything else to offer and they can't support American, British or French IFVs. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Elerond

[Mamoulian War]

Accurate depiction of RuAF situation in Lyman and surrounding areas

 

[bugarup]

Why everyone always forgets the largest supplier of military machines to Ukraine? 

In other news, Russian envoy to UN complains that President of Ukraine is trying to disrupt mobilization in Russia with his TV speeches. 

 

[pmp10]

  

7 hours ago, Elerond said:

Poland gave Ukraine some of their old BMP-1s.

Slovakia also send 30 BMP-1s to Ukraine and received 15 Leopards from Germany as compensation  

Slovenia send 35  BVP M80As to Ukraine

Greece is currently in process to send 40 BMP-1s to Ukraine.

The key-word being 'western', same as with tanks. 
It's true that BMP-1s and its variants have been delivered but let's not kid over selves, that is Khrushchev-era design.

7 hours ago, Elerond said:

Germany again approved selling 16 restored Marders to Ukraine

AFAIK that was one of industry proposals that German government blocked.

7 hours ago, Elerond said:

 So they don't have anything else to offer and they can't support American, British or French IFVs. 

In which case why doesn't this apply to APCs?
They can somehow support American M113s, British Spartans, Finish XA-185s, Dutch YPR-765s and more.

Edited September 30, 2022 by pmp10

[BruceVC]

The US should deploy nukes to the Ukrainians, that should stop Putin  using them within Ukraine?

[Elerond]

51 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

  

The key-word being 'western', same as with tanks. 
It's true that BMP-1s and its variants have been delivered but let's not kid over selves, that is Khrushchev-era design.

AFAIK that was one of industry proposals that German government blocked.

In which case why doesn't this apply to APCs?
They can somehow support American M113s, British Spartans, Finish XA-185s, Dutch YPR-765s and more.

XA-180s and XA-185s, don't have much of electronics and they are designed to be easy to support and they are also used by UN peace keepers, they have existing global support lines.

M113s are designed to need minimalist logistic support also Poland has M113s, and is able to provide support for them in Ukraine

FV103 Spartan is from 1978, it does not have much of electronics, so maybe Ukraine is able to support themselves with British instructions. 

YPR-765 is variant of M113, and is designed so that it can be supported with M113s parts.

Also APCs usually only have machine guns and don't have targeting computers and other stuff that are found in IFVs, making them easier to support as you don't need special equipment, parts and needed knowledge is smaller.

For example conscripts support XA-180s and XA-185s in Finnish Defense Forces, where BMPs and CV90s are supported by cadre engineers. Even me a software engineer was able to change oils, grease, filters, fluids, etc, change tiers, fix basic problems in engine in XA-185 with less than month training. And driving it is same as driving truck. BMPs for example I don't even know how to start them let alone drive them.

EDIT: All the APC so far are also designed in 60s and 70s. M113 is from 1964, it is two years older design than BMP-1. XA-180/XA-185 is most 'modern' from 1983. Most of BMP-1s that have been given to Ukraine have been modernized, they have targeting computers, night vision, sensors etc. added to them. In most cases APCs have seen only little modernization and even then usually with newer variants and old ones have left untouched.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Elerond

[pmp10]

You know we could hair-split these excuses all day long.
Fundamentally one side is conscripting thousands and the other thinks western made 25mm auto-cannon is an unacceptable escalation. 

The point being that if wars are won on willpower then Ukraine is looking at a rough future. 

[Mamoulian War]

Not gonna link the tweet, as it would probably breach the forum rules… 

 

Anton Gerashchenko

 

@Gerashchenko_en

 

 

Russian army shelled civilian humanitarian column at exit of Zaporizhzhia 23 people dead, 35 wounded, incl. 4y.o. girl People gathered to go to occupied territories (for relatives/documents). There is only 1 entrance point & columns leave every morning - strike was deliberate.
 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/30/7369748/

 

Meanwhile in the US, there was prepared whitepaper for lawmakers, which deep-analyzed  consequences of assigning  Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism… I hope this will pass soon…

Edited September 30, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[pmp10]

Well, it's done.
After 30 minutes of anti-western ranting Putin singed the deals with separatists.
Russia is now officially claiming Luhansk , Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as their own. 

No going back now to any discussions with Ukraine now.
Chances for any long term peace until one side is completely defeated are likely also dead.  

[Mamoulian War]

We’ll get Ukrainian view on the matter very soon, including some good news from the talks with NATO.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/30/7369808/

[Malcador]

Wonder what that could be, NATO admitting a member in a war ?

[Elerond]

33 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Wonder what that could be, NATO admitting a member in a war ?

 

[BruceVC]

30 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Wonder what that could be, NATO admitting a member in a war ?

I doubt it since the US cant unilaterally invite countries to join NATO

Its probably about additional or new military armaments 

[Sarex]

Sweden and Finland aren't members yet, so I highly doubt Ukraine is going to be.

[Mamoulian War]

Biden just announced more sanctions on Russia, and Zelenskyi is ready to negotiate with Russia, but with new Russian president, as the current one knows no honesty, nor dignity.

 

Quote from Zelenskyy: "Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts. It is our state that has always offered to negotiate with Russia on coexistence on equal, honest, dignified and fair terms. It is obvious that with the current Russian president, this is impossible. He has no idea what dignity and honesty are.

Therefore, we are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president."

Edited September 30, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

Oh, and UA received new M30A1 rockets for HIMARS and M270, to deal with Russian mobilization.

 

 

[Malcador]

10 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Oh, and UA received new M30A1 rockets for HIMARS and M270, to deal with Russian mobilization.

 

 

Well that's interesting, they're going to start using them tactically?

[HoonDing]