Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[pmp10]

More rumors emerge of Ukraine being badly outgunned.
If the morale problems are true that could explain the messy Ukrainian counter-attack at Sievierodonetsk.  

[Darkpriest]

From FinancialTimes. (ft.com)

Seems Germany, Italy, etc. are having their gas suppliers paying in RUB for gas. 

 

---—------

Russia suggests no more countries to be cut off from its gas

Nastassia Astrasheuskaya in Riga

 

Russia will not switch off gas supplies to any more countries over the rouble payment scheme, the Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

The scheme requires countries to convert payments for gas supply into roubles through their accounts with Russia’s Gazprombank. Countries that have refused to use the new mechanism have already been disconnected.

“The system is working, the system has been set up, and those who receive gas are already working under the new system,” said Peskov, according to Russian news agency Interfax.

Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree earlier this year requiring Gazprom’s clients in so-called unfriendly countries, which include the EU, to switch gas payments to roubles. He said this was a response to the west freezing Russia’s foreign reserves.

A number of countries — including Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland — have refused to use the mechanism, saying it contradicts the contract terms, leading Gazprom to halt their gas supply.

 

[Malcador]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61726733

Seems counterproductive.  Just declare them illegal combatants and stick them in a camp on a military base outside Russia.

[Mamoulian War]

31 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

More rumors emerge of Ukraine being badly outgunned.
If the morale problems are true that could explain the messy Ukrainian counter-attack at Sievierodonetsk.  

Sievierodonetsk is pretty big mess with or without propaganda from both sides. Of course the Ukraine is Outgunned there, as Russia put in Donbas 50% of all soldiers in Ukraine, despite that, I would not say that Ukraine counteroffensive was messy at all. They tactically retreated from city, and Russia being "happy" for easy victory, with probably most of their soldier being on vodka, the next day Ukraine obliterated them, including one whole tiktok kadyrov unit. They just shelled the hell out of them by artillery from Lysychansk, which is on high ground. Then they stormed the units in chaos, fully knowing, that they will have to retreat in day or two again back to the Insustrial quarter of the city.

Unless Russia takes down Lysychansk as well, the same stuff will be probably repeating next few days/weeks.

[Mamoulian War]

52 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

From FinancialTimes. (ft.com)

Seems Germany, Italy, etc. are having their gas suppliers paying in RUB for gas. 

 

---—------

Russia suggests no more countries to be cut off from its gas

Nastassia Astrasheuskaya in Riga

 

Russia will not switch off gas supplies to any more countries over the rouble payment scheme, the Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

The scheme requires countries to convert payments for gas supply into roubles through their accounts with Russia’s Gazprombank. Countries that have refused to use the new mechanism have already been disconnected.

“The system is working, the system has been set up, and those who receive gas are already working under the new system,” said Peskov, according to Russian news agency Interfax.

Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree earlier this year requiring Gazprom’s clients in so-called unfriendly countries, which include the EU, to switch gas payments to roubles. He said this was a response to the west freezing Russia’s foreign reserves.

A number of countries — including Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland — have refused to use the mechanism, saying it contradicts the contract terms, leading Gazprom to halt their gas supply.

 

Now I have seen, that even countries which are not cut-off from Russia have dramatically lowered their consumption of gas. And this started to happen even before the start of the war. E.g. Czech Industry have lowered their consumption by 10% alone. So I would presume, that Peskov is as always lying through it's teeth, because Russia probably already knows, that cutting off even more of their gas to EU, would lead to closing down some of their digs, which could be in some circumstances irreversible, or burning even more gas in Siberia. From what I heard, they already burned approx. 5% of mined gas before the war, due to them trying to lower the gas supplies to EU. And there is this funny fact, that Yamal pipeline flows only to EU and nowhere else. Which is approximately 50-70% of all of Russian gas export...

Edited June 9, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[kanisatha]

This fits in the science thread as well:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/russia-and-germany-are-fighting-over-an-x-ray-telescope-in-space/

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Seems Germany, Italy, etc. are having their gas suppliers paying in RUB for gas. 

Practically all remaining customers admitted it in various press releases.
You can find all of them with key weasel words of 'following EC recommendation and paying in Euros'.
They know full well that they are crediting a new ruble account not foreseen in their contracts. 

[Darkpriest]

Now this can actually hit the Russian exports, as it would take a lot of time and resources to have state backed fleets to operate on bilateral terms and under state backed insurances for the Asian locations. 

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Insurance-Ban-Is-The-EUs-Biggest-Blow-Yet-To-Russian-Oil-Exports.html

[Darkpriest]

On another economic news front, how long before Western countries will have to fold on support due to costs

 

https://on.ft.com/3H0tnfL

[Darkpriest]

@Mamoulian War

This summarizes some of the issues with US side but only on gasoline side. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/first-time-ever-national-average-gas-price-5

 

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, pmp10 said:

More rumors emerge of Ukraine being badly outgunned.
If the morale problems are true that could explain the messy Ukrainian counter-attack at Sievierodonetsk.  

Their problem there wasn't really morale, especially since they'd brought in a lot of fresh troops from the Lisichansk side (but see also below). It's a lot more difficult to take urban area, even if you've just given it up. One of the foreign volunteers units had 40% casualties over the space of a day, and while there's no way to know how typical that was and it got reported because they were western volunteers suffering high casualties it was clearly not a lot of fun being there. Militarily, if they were going to lose Sverodonetsk it would potentially have left a bunch of other troops isolated on the wrong side of the river, so the counterattack seems to have been made with a lot of troops from Borivske as well in order that they could move north to escape. Otherwise they'd have to swim the river and abandon all their equipment. As it stands Borivske certainly appears to have been taken, as has the airport. To be honest the whole thing seems like a rehash of Mariupol's Ilyich plant, marketed as a great victory initially but after a few days just less of a catastrophe than it might have been.

Their real problem is supply. Ultimately, everything from food and water to ammunition and equipment, plus reinforcements has to come along one road. Which is well within artillery range. You're going to lose a lot before it even gets in a position to be used, day in, day out. Then you have to pull the wrecked equipment off the road, under fire, or go cross country which is slow and still within artillery range.

[Gorth]

7 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

On another economic news front, how long before Western countries will have to fold on support due to costs

 

https://on.ft.com/3H0tnfL

Could you make an "executive summary" for those of us blocked by the pay wall?

Not cutting pasting it all of course (they need to make a living too), but just some key points?

[Zoraptor]

There are plenty of alternative articles that aren't paywalled (eg BBC).

Or the OECD report itself, it's only one page.

(TLDR is that everyone except Australia and Argentina have had their economic outlook downgraded, and the UK is expected to be the worst effected. The war in Ukraine and response to it is partly responsible)

[Mamoulian War]

@Darkpriest

Found this one yesterday, and I have noticed, that we all are forgetting, while posting doom and gloom, about the impact of high food prices on relationship between Russia and China. Looks like the biggest exporter of wheat to China was actually Ukraine, and the soaring prices of food in China are much much higher domestic security problem, than soaring prices in the West. And this might force China to make some unexpected move. So the attrition war planned by Putin, might completely destroy his cooperative relationship with China, before affecting the West to much.

 

[Mamoulian War]

This one is interesting, but I have found no way for confirming it yet.

 

Also, Russian Duma has got law about abolition of recognition of Lithuania.

And Putler is talking in interview, about historical justification for attacking Ukraine, how they "rightfully" seized what was theirs before, despite world recognizing it as Sweden (Estonia in this case).

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

Official media take on the last of my tweets:

https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-compares-ukraine-war-to-peter-the-great-conquests/31891916.html

[bugarup]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Also, Russian Duma has got law about abolition of recognition of Lithuania.

They're thinking too small, should have gone right for cancelling the purchase of Alaska. 

[kanisatha]

4 hours ago, bugarup said:

They're thinking too small, should have gone right for cancelling the purchase of Alaska. 

To be honest I would love that.

I firmly believe that when war is inevitable, it is better to fight that war sooner rather than later (or more specifically, on our terms rather than on the other side's terms).

Edited June 10, 2022 by kanisatha

[Malcador]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine

Definitely unsexy warfare in the east

 

[HoonDing]

Russia is nothing but a mob of drunk low-motivated bydlo with WWII tactics and equipment and we're kickin their asses.

But please, do send us more power swords and bolters coz we can't win.

[Mamoulian War]

32 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

Russia is nothing but a mob of drunk low-motivated bydlo with WWII tactics and equipment and we're kickin their asses.

But please, do send us more power swords and bolters coz we can't win.

Well even a hive of stupid Orcs can defeat bunch of trained and disciplined Marines with not enough ammo

[Darkpriest]

The Ukraine topic will vanish from the front of media attention, midterms in US, so economy and inflation will be fron and center there. Expect a turmoil on EU borders due to migrants, plus internally high costs of living, high food prices and energy costs and PIGS going into economic, debt related issues again

Today's market summary... Tic-toc-tic-toc... Countdown to October/November ticking. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soaring-cpi-crushes-peak-inflation-narrative-sparks-global-turmoil

[Darkpriest]

Seems Rusia is well in control of their currency and prices in their economy. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russian-monetary-policy-reverts-pre-ukraine-war-levels-after-bigger-expected-rate-cut

Now, the real impact will be in GDP and availability of some goods and services. Question is, will they care and how much will they? 

[Chilloutman]

thats a lot of talk, try buying dollar on streets and you will see how well their ruble stands

[Darkpriest]

3 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

thats a lot of talk, try buying dollar on streets and you will see how well their ruble stands

If I recall, they progresively make it easier to keep foreign currency and trade for it. 

I am a fair distance from Russia and last time i had a contact from a trusted friend in Russia was in my DotA days...