Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[Chilloutman]

20 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Was every  Roman Catholic priest  involved and was every region? I also was under the impression the RC church has recognized this terrible injustice

If you follow your argument that means we can never trust any politician or any political party because some politicians are corrupt and break the law 

Its not really a reasonable or convincing way to accept systemic problems like this in any institution?

You should never trust any politician, you should always control them

[xzar_monty]

14 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

You should never trust any politician, you should always control them

Nah. I was a classmate of a future minister. It's not really useful to regard politicians as something fundamentally other, or a group to make blanket statements about. Obviously there are countries where politicians tend to be more trustworthy than in some other countries.

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Here's a thought experiment I came up with and talked about with a couple of friends of mine. It was more relevant during the shelling of Mariupol, but I suppose there is a place on the front lines that would still qualify. Let us assume that the pope wishes to make a strong statement and declares that in two days, he will fly to the most heavily bombed place on the front in order the stop the Russian attack. "I defy you not to desist", he says.

This raises two questions:

1) Would the Russians stop, or would they just go ahead and kill the pope?

2) Is there anyone else on the planet with comparable authority? Anyone whose fate would move people as much and could reasonably pull off such a stunt with any meaning?

 

My personal answers: 1) I have no idea, 2) Almost certainly not.

They wouldn't, well not unless the Pope just acts as a human shield.  Politically blowing away a leader of a sovereign nation and the highest ranking holy man would be damaging.

As for #2, probably not, maybe some influencer though

[xzar_monty]

22 minutes ago, Malcador said:

They wouldn't, well not unless the Pope just acts as a human shield.  Politically blowing away a leader of a sovereign nation and the highest ranking holy man would be damaging.

As for #2, probably not, maybe some influencer though

It would be, yes, I agree. But the strange thing is that Russia has clearly done an awful lot of things that are very damaging.

I wonder if this kind of symbolism would make them stop. Obviously we're not going to know. This thought experiment just came along when I was thinking of power, symbolism, potential peaceful ways of making a difference, that sort of thing.

As for #2, that's an interesting thing. Of course the pope has always been a big figure, but still. When I recently read that "Jordan Peterson is the most important intellectual of the western world right now", or something along those lines, I thought that if that is true, it's not a good thing.

Edited June 6, 2022 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Nah. I was a classmate of a future minister. It's not really useful to regard politicians as something fundamentally other, or a group to make blanket statements about. Obviously there are countries where politicians tend to be more trustworthy than in some other countries.

What an interesting person to meet, who was he ?

Now we can end the fun guessing game of what Nordic country you live in 

[BruceVC]

28 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

It would be, yes, I agree. But the strange thing is that Russia has clearly done an awful lot of things that are very damaging.

I wonder if this kind of symbolism would make them stop. Obviously we're not going to know. This thought experiment just came along when I was thinking of power, symbolism, potential peaceful ways of making a difference, that sort of thing.

As for #2, that's an interesting thing. Of course the pope has always been a big figure, but still. When I recently read that "Jordan Peterson is the most important intellectual of the western world right now", or something along those lines, I thought that if that is true, it's not a good thing.

Jordan Peterson is an important intellectual and influencer, I agree with much of what he says but not everything

But I wouldnt put him in the same group as the Pope, the Pope really rejects ostentatiousness and seems to absolutely care about the poor and downtrodden  in  ways I have never seen any Pope care in my lifetime 

I respect him immensely even if I disagree with some of his economic ideas

Peterson is more a political commentator around SJ issues and culture wars, the Pope is ....well he is the Pope. That makes him more important then Peterson could ever be IMO 

 

 

[Malcador]

31 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

It would be, yes, I agree. But the strange thing is that Russia has clearly done an awful lot of things that are very damaging.

I wonder if this kind of symbolism would make them stop. Obviously we're not going to know. This thought experiment just came along when I was thinking of power, symbolism, potential peaceful ways of making a difference, that sort of thing.

As for #2, that's an interesting thing. Of course the pope has always been a big figure, but still. When I recently read that "Jordan Peterson is the most important intellectual of the western world right now", or something along those lines, I thought that if that is true, it's not a good thing.

Killing the Pope would be bad, people are indifferent in many Catholic-heavy nations but they wouldn't be if the Pope's killed deliberately.  But unless he's stopping outgoing from his position, that's just going to end up with him dead from the course of war.

I'm all for sending Jordan Peterson to Mariupol to block 152mm rounds.

[HoonDing]

"Jordan Peterson is an important intellectual and influencer, I agree with much of what he says but not everything

But I wouldnt put him in the same group as the Pope, the Pope really rejects ostentatiousness and seems to absolutely care about the poor and downtrodden  in  ways I have never seen any Pope care in my lifetime 

I respect him immensely even if I disagree with some of his economic ideas

Peterson is more a political commentator around SJ issues and culture wars, the Pope is ....well he is the Pope. That makes him more important then Peterson could ever be IMO "

I knew you were 17 rather than 47

[BruceVC]

14 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

"Jordan Peterson is an important intellectual and influencer, I agree with much of what he says but not everything

But I wouldnt put him in the same group as the Pope, the Pope really rejects ostentatiousness and seems to absolutely care about the poor and downtrodden  in  ways I have never seen any Pope care in my lifetime 

I respect him immensely even if I disagree with some of his economic ideas

Peterson is more a political commentator around SJ issues and culture wars, the Pope is ....well he is the Pope. That makes him more important then Peterson could ever be IMO "

I knew you were 17 rather than 47

Why dont you like Peterson? What points has he made that you disagree with ?

[Zoraptor]

Read the wikipedia article on the Siege of Mariupol, since it's likely to be where a lot of people get their information in the future- and because there was one very obvious piece of incorrect information last time I did and I wanted to see if they'd corrected it over the last 3 weeks. Needless to say, they hadn't. Also needless to say I'm not that disappointed they haven't, personally, as for anyone paying attention it reinforces how bad wikipedia inherently is as a source for anything recent (and politically controversial, though it's not directly related to that in this case).

It's the classic 'trusted source' trap where someone found a cite for the number of Ukrainian defenders in a trusted source- 3500 total- and added that number. In retrospect that number was very, very clearly a big underestimate, but they still can't remove it. Ukraine had them losing more than 3500 POWs, alone, with KIA additional. Indeed, you get to 3500 POWs just from verified surrenders from Ilyich and Azovstal, let alone the Port or anywhere urban.

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Read the wikipedia article on the Siege of Mariupol, since it's likely to be where a lot of people get their information in the future- and because there was one very obvious piece of incorrect information last time I did and I wanted to see if they'd corrected it over the last 3 weeks. Needless to say, they hadn't. Also needless to say I'm not that disappointed they haven't, personally, as for anyone paying attention it reinforces how bad wikipedia inherently is as a source for anything recent (and politically controversial, though it's not directly related to that in this case).

It's the classic 'trusted source' trap where someone found a cite for the number of Ukrainian defenders in a trusted source- 3500 total- and added that number. In retrospect that number was very, very clearly a big underestimate, but they still can't remove it. Ukraine had them losing more than 3500 POWs, alone, with KIA additional. Indeed, you get to 3500 POWs just from verified surrenders from Ilyich and Azovstal, let alone the Port or anywhere urban.

Wikipedia is just a reference, you shouldnt use it for the foundation of your analysis or research 

It can be very useful as a starting point or just a quick summary of a debates talking points but its always recommended to use other websites for information 

But the biggest source of ongoing misinformation around Putins War is what comes directly from the Kremlin and the current Russian media houses. And sadly many Russians dont have access to alternative sources of information so they still think this unprovoked invasion was about Neo-Nazi, NATO and Nukes ( the 3 N )

 

[Mamoulian War]

This one is interesting - Especially the follow up tweets... Looks like Buryats are starting to feel, that they are treated as "second class" on the front, due to Chechen's taking their "stolen loot"...

 

Edited June 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

This one is interesting - Especially the follow up tweets... Looks like Buryats are starting to feel, that they are treated as "second class" on the front, due to Chechen's taking their "stolen loot"...

Regardless of how they feel, they are in fact treated as second class by virtue of the fact that they are the ones sent to the front. It's not the ethnic Russians from the big cities that fight the fight, it's the poor rural boys whose ethnicity tends to be other than Russian.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Regardless of how they feel, they are in fact treated as second class by virtue of the fact that they are the ones sent to the front. It's not the ethnic Russians from the big cities that fight the fight, it's the poor rural boys whose ethnicity tends to be other than Russian.

The same can be said about Kadyrovites too. And they still get better treatment, and that pisses of the Buryats.

[xzar_monty]

No doubt that is true as well. There is hierarchy among the lower classes, too.

[Mamoulian War]

@Darkpriest

An op-ed on the oil situation by the ex-chancellor of my ex-political party (I left few months ago, when he was removed from his position, by non-transparent means)

It supports my conclusion from the Deutsche Well video I shared you, few days ago, where I have mentioned, that it is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia, to have very high oil prices for a very long time. (Google translated)

"THE TIME OF THE STONE WAS NOT ENDED MANY THAT THE STONES ARE OUT
Or, as Russia's economic destiny is largely in the hands of the Saudis, and why it doesn't suit the Saudis when the Russians mine little and oil prices are too high.
The popular story of Russian trolls and their useful idiots tells how Russia will easily find a market for its oil after European sanctions. The reality is that their production is declining because European consumption cannot replace Russia.
This creates a hole in the market that someone will have to fill. And either the OPEC oil cartel countries or the United States. The Champions League of International Diplomacy takes place here.
Because:
Saudi and the Middle East, in particular, are fabulously rich in high oil prices
However, it is not in the interest of the Saudis that prices be too high in the long run. At high prices, it pays for Americans to extract shale oil.
The Saudis just have to tuck the mallet into the sand and oil will gush out. Therefore, their mining costs are around three dollars per barrel. Shale oil production is expensive and worthwhile when the price of oil is at least around $ 40 per barrel.
American capitalism is relentless. The market has a free hand, and when oil prices fell to historic lows last time during a pandemic ($ 11 a barrel, thanks to the OPEC-Russia oil war, that's another evening), about 46 shale oil companies rumbled (went bankrupt). which left behind an ax of $ 56 billion. At $ 120 a barrel, however, their time is up again. With such a margin, it is an investor's dream.
The last thing the Saudi want is for American miners to re-run and flood the world with shale oil, cutting them off their market pie again.
Saudi people have a lot of oil. So much and for so long that they "threaten" them that they won't have time to sell it all. The developed world, the largest buyers of oil, is moving away from fossil fuels, and once, in a relatively short future, perhaps sometime in 2050, the time will come when no one will care.
Because the Stone Age did not end because the stones ran out. Even the era of fossil fuels will not end due to the shortage of fossil fuels (although the Moon predicted something different ten years ago).
That is why the Saudi need to mine a lot and ideally at the best possible prices in terms of a gold average price. However, if prices are too high, American drillers will tear them off their cake. If prices are too low, they will not earn enough to save in the future to buy more English football clubs.
CONCLUSION: HOW DOES RUSSIA?
Current prices are too high for the Saudis. And it's only a matter of time before they let the tap down and oil prices return to some "normal" pre-crisis levels. And how will it affect the Russians? So that they get even less money for their oil, which they no longer have to sell to anyone than before.
Easy math:
a lot of oil sold, for a lot of money = a lot of money for war excesses and keeping the population in check through social packages.
Little oil sold, little money = the collapse of an economy built on oil exports."

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Darkpriest]

What that says is not untrue in the past political circumstances. 

The truth is, that due to political demonization of fossil fuels industry, there is no will to invest in expensive methods of extraction. Oil related investments are killed politically (permits, pipelines, etc.) 

The US gov did not bail out the oil industry when it got pummelled during the pandemics so investing a lot of money, which is at risk of being destroyed by OPEC+ or domestically by a Dems government, is not really causing large investments in Oil, even when banks raise benchmarks for this comm. price to 140+.

 

OPEC does not need to act to lower the price at all, they can keep the price and send replacements to EU, US, while Russian,cheaper Oil, will be flowing to Asia (mainly China and India) . 

That would give Sauds more political leverage. 

 

LPG might be a bit different, but still US consumer got hit hard, as the price went to over 9 USD, highest since the depths of the 2008 crisis, and this is before the proper summer season with high temperatrues hits and before the winter season, where a lot of parties are still at very low reserves. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Big-Oil-Set-To-Win-Stakes-In-Qatars-Huge-LNG-Expansion-Projects.html

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Malcador]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/politics/ukraine-war-us-intelligence.html

The United States provides regular, near real-time intelligence updates to Ukraine about the location of Russian forces, information that the Ukrainians use to plan operations and strikes and strengthen their defenses.

But even in high level conversations with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or Lloyd J. Austin III, the secretary of defense, Ukrainian officials share only their strategic goals, not their detailed operational plans. Ukraine’s secrecy has forced U.S. military and intelligence officials to try and learn what they can from other countries operating in Ukraine, training sessions with Ukrainians and Mr. Zelensky’s public comments, American officials said.

 

 

 

[Gorth]

12 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/politics/ukraine-war-us-intelligence.html

 

 

Which frankly makes perfect sense when you're the one doing all the dying on the ground...

[Darkpriest]

This is an article from a more pro-Russian site, so thread carefully on this site, however the article provides some more light on UA propaganda as well. 

https://summit.news/2022/06/09/ukrainian-official-admits-she-lied-about-russians-committing-mass-rape-to-convince-countries-to-send-more-weapons/

[Sarex]

26 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

This is an article from a more pro-Russian site, so thread carefully on this site, however the article provides some more light on UA propaganda as well. 

Is there any middle of the road source which is even a little objective... If so I haven't found it.

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Is there any middle of the road source which is even a little objective... If so I haven't found it.

Are you asking if the stories about rape from Russian soldiers is true or something else?

What do you personally need before you will believe it, tell me and I will find it for you ?

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

7 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Is there any middle of the road source which is even a little objective... If so I haven't found it.

Well sometimes I try to watch Al Jazeera (qatar), and WION (india), which try to offer sometimes least skewed angle at the conflict.

The true middle ground would be possible to find only maybe after 10 or so years after the end of the conflict...

 

And on completely unrelated way to your question, to avoid doublepost, I have found this interesting rumour As always, impossible to confirm this from any Russian source, unless you know someone, who is willing to risk 15 years of jail

Allegedly Volodya had thrown some very naughty words at Xi and Lapdogvrov

 

[Mamoulian War]

Sigh, indeed there is again a need for my doublepost

But I've found Interesting summary on the web of lies by Kremlin since 2008 Feel free to read whole conversation to see more

 

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Well sometimes I try to watch Al Jazeera (qatar), and WION (india), which try to offer sometimes least skewed angle at the conflict.

The true middle ground would be possible to find only maybe after 10 or so years after the end of the conflict...

 

And on completely unrelated way to your question, to avoid doublepost, I have found this interesting rumour As always, impossible to confirm this from any Russian source, unless you know someone, who is willing to risk 15 years of jail

Allegedly Volodya had thrown some very naughty words at Xi and Lapdogvrov

 

 

Their is nothing in that video that is too hard to believe, we already know that China  has not aligned with their " good friend Russia " to create the new world economic order 

China has much more trade and investments with the West and like most countries China is not going to sacrifice those economic benefits to really support Putins War outside of the rhetoric 

Why would they?