Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The tweet by Alex Kokcharov reads: "In the four-months war in #Ukraine, #Russia's army has lost 23-42% of its tanks and up to 14% of its armored vehicles."

Does anyone have an idea how long it might realistically take to cover losses such as these?

Analyst predictions ranged from minimum of 3 years to well over a decade.
It would greatly depend on economic situation and effectiveness of technological sanctions. 

[Zoraptor]

I don't really know why anyone would take those estimates seriously anyway. Russia was going to run out of stuff inside a week from the start of the war, estimates have been consistently inaccurate.

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Interestingly, in August 1942, Russia (the Soviet Union) had two "lines" on the front. The first was there to attack the Germans, and the second was there to shoot at anyone from the first line who wanted to escape the fighting. Apparently, they're still using this strategy in Ukraine. Russia stands out as the country who have no qualms whatsoever about killing their own.

Sigh.

"Enemy at the Gates" is not a documentary. Much like, well, the Moscow Times it's intended to make westerners feel good about themselves.

As a matter of actual historical fact the Germans achieved zero soviet pockets in six months (while still taking enormous amounts of land) under 'not one step back' because... the soviets continually withdrew, until they reached Stalingrad. Under the previous policy which was far closer to actual 'not one step back' they pocketed something ludicrous like 3 million soviet troops in 6 months.

Last pocket the Germans took on the eastern front was, rather ironically, at Izyum in May 1942 during a soviet attack. Mostly ironic not because the current war is largely being fought around Izyum, but because sticking a great wad of troops in a salient with weakly defended sides is exactly what the dopes got roped into at Stalingrad. And if it wasn't for Manstein they'd probably have pocketed every single german strung out along 2000km of trans Don countryside waiting for supplies as well.

2 hours ago, bugarup said:

Yeah, Europe absolutely must always sport shiny white unsullied fluffy coat and never push back against the country that broke probably every international agreement there is. So what if we are dealing with the bully that sees adherence to rules as weakness to be exploited while mocking and disrespecting those who do try to live by the laws, we have to be nice and let the warmongering **** walk all over us because something something Iraq and Palestine and Yemen something something probably.

If you want to play realpolitik, then do so.

Preferably do so without the moral crusade and 5th grade propaganda though, and especially the blubbing about how and why the rest of the world just doesn't appreciate how very special and uniquely terrible crimes against the west are.

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, bugarup said:

I've read a hypothesis they might declare they have no other choice but to fly their stuff from Belarus over our sky and have their war planes hover at the borders with an occasional "accidental" breach, so on one hand its full aggression, on the other, we can't really shoot down their cargo planes. Guess we'll know soon enough anyway.

I would guess they'd launch a major cyber attack. That's their big go-to short of military action.

And yeah, Peskov saying, "This decision is really unprecedented. It's a violation of everything. We consider this illegal," is hilarious and the height of hutzpah. Everything the Russians have done since 2/24 is unprecedented, illegal, and "a violation of everything." In response to Russia's actions, any counter-action taken by anyone anywhere in the world is eminently reasonable by default.

[Malcador]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/21/ukraine-us-drones-pushback/

Interesting to note the bit about training for F-15 and F-16s.

 

[xzar_monty]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

"Enemy at the Gates" is not a documentary. Much like, well, the Moscow Times it's intended to make westerners feel good about themselves.

It is not my source, either. I haven't even seen it -- in fact, this was the first time I heard of it. Your assumptions aren't exactly proper.

Edited June 22, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Gorth]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

As a matter of actual historical fact the Germans achieved zero soviet pockets in six months (while still taking enormous amounts of land)

This one is really more for the military thread, but iirc, Kursk was the last serious attempt by the Wehrmacht to encircle a large number of Soviet troops?

[Zoraptor]

Depends how seriously you take Hitler really, as he was planning massive envelopments right up to April 1945. Kursk was the last time they had a semi realistic chance of doing it on the eastern front (and of course they also tried to repeat France 1940 in 1944 on the western front, though how realistic that plan was in late 1944 is... questionable, at best). If the soviets had kept up the 1941 tactics in 1942 they'd have bagged a lot of troops again though.

19 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

It is not my source, either. I haven't even seen it -- in fact, this was the first time I heard of it. Your assumptions aren't exactly proper.

Heh. Though fair enough too.

Too much 'Enemy at the Gates' is shorthand for someone talking about well known 'facts' about the soviets in WW2, because that movie had rather a lot of them. It's not literal.

There was a 'Not one step back' order, but it was very largely ignored practically- and rather ironically, it was based on a prior German order from Winter 41-2 which more or less worked for the Germans, but was a long term disaster for them since it convinced Hitler that they just had to stand and fight with enough vigour and everything would be OK (plus they supplied one pocket via air, which convinced Hitler Stalingrad could be supplied that way). But in mid 1942+, when the NOSB order was active the Soviets just kept retreating until they got to Stalingrad and to let the southern thrust outrun their supplies.

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I don't really know why anyone would take those estimates seriously anyway. Russia was going to run out of stuff inside a week from the start of the war, estimates have been consistently inaccurate.

 

 " estimates have been consistently inaccurate " ..Oh thats rich coming from you 

The long list of Russian fake news repeated on this forum in the beginning of Putins War is really the funny part of your post. Let see

• Russia wont invade Ukraine guys, its just a training exercise. 
• We cant trust the US with intelligence...look at Iraq and you definitely cant trust the Western media remember " babies being thrown in incubators "
• Okay but now that Russia has invaded its justified because of Minsk, Nazis, Nukes and NATO...." its justified " !!! 
• Ukraine will be defeated in a week by the mighty Russian army because they very well trained 
• The Moskva is still sailing in the Black Sea
• Their was no attempt to occupy the whole country and Kiev
• Their are NO  war crimes committed by the Russian army, its fake news or the Ukrainians killing their own citizens for propaganda purposes 

I can go on and on. Their has been propaganda from the Ukrainian side as well but the masters of " consistently inaccurate " have been the Ruskies and people who repeat their fake news 

But thanks for the laugh again 

[xzar_monty]

59 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Heh. Though fair enough too.

A state of siege was proclaimed in Stalingrad on 25 August 1942. The 10th NKVD Rifle Division organized "destroyer battallions" that were sent into action against the 16th Panzer Division. Behind the destroyer battallions were Komsomol groups with automatic weapons positioned to stop any retreat. This is one of the historical examples I'm referring to.

[Gorth]

47 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

• Their was no attempt to occupy the whole country and Kiev

You could argue, the whole disaster around the Russian army's antics north of Kiev was an attempt to preempt the need to occupy the whole country (eliminate the leadership). Nice thinking, poor execution. Like eating a nice dinner with a hammer and a fork...

[BruceVC]

9 minutes ago, Gorth said:

You could argue, the whole disaster around the Russian army's antics north of Kiev was an attempt to preempt the need to occupy the whole country (eliminate the leadership). Nice thinking, poor execution. Like eating a nice dinner with a hammer and a fork...

Yes I agree, irrespective of the current morality of the current tactics in the east  ( morality doesnt really exist in wars )its been much more successful than the initial invasion and objective 

Supply lines arent as much a consideration in the Donbas, remember that famous miles  long supply line, and the Ruskies have much more local support for the war in the east

But  the initial objective did make sense because obviously if you can occupy Kiev you more or less achieve your primary goal of defeating the Ukrainian  forces   

[xzar_monty]

12 minutes ago, Gorth said:

You could argue, the whole disaster around the Russian army's antics north of Kiev was an attempt to preempt the need to occupy the whole country (eliminate the leadership). Nice thinking, poor execution. Like eating a nice dinner with a hammer and a fork...

I think this is precisely what it was. Early on during the war, reports started to surface that the Russians had botched (via corruption) a wholesale attempt to prepare just this: the right people were supposed to be in place, the right traitors were supposed to do the right thing for Russia, but essentially none of it happened. An awful lot of money was wasted in corruption.

Early on, I read these reports very sceptically, but then it appeared that at least some proper evidence started to surface, although I'm still not sure about the whole thing. Two days after the war began, some Russian news agency accidentally reported that Ukraine had surrendered and that everything had gone according to plan. The article was removed very quickly, but of course the internet doesn't forget. So even this was planned. It just all went terribly wrong.

Like eating a nice dinner with two sledgehammers.

[Mamoulian War]

14 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The tweet by Alex Kokcharov reads: "In the four-months war in #Ukraine, #Russia's army has lost 23-42% of its tanks and up to 14% of its armored vehicles."

Does anyone have an idea how long it might realistically take to cover losses such as these?

With the confirmed report that the largest tank producing/repairing facility in Russia/World had to be shut down due to lack of western components to produce more, I'd guess few years if not a decade, if the sanctions status quo remains the same as now. Because even Chinese IT companies are leaving Russian market, and are not willing to risk the fallout of circumventing the sanctions.

[Mamoulian War]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Preferably do so without the moral crusade and 5th grade propaganda though, and especially the blubbing about how and why the rest of the world just doesn't appreciate how very special and uniquely terrible crimes against the west are.

And you are again forgetting, that here are a lot of people who lived in Soviet Occupied territories for more than a decade, who experienced more than a ****load of these so called "terrible crimes against the west" perpetrated by Soviets/Russians first hand... especially people like bugarup, who lives in Baltics...

[Mamoulian War]

18 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes I agree, irrespective of the current morality of the current tactics in the east  ( morality doesnt really exist in wars )its been much more successful than the initial invasion and objective 

Supply lines arent as much a consideration in the Donbas, remember that famous miles  long supply line, and the Ruskies have much more local support for the war in the east

But  the initial objective did make sense because obviously if you can occupy Kiev you more or less achieve your primary goal of defeating the Ukrainian  forces   

Well, even the operation in the east is not much more successful, than the operation around the Kyiv. The "funny" thing is, that the Russia is doing the same mistakes as Germans in WW2 while storming the Ukraine. They are able to seize only small villages, from which Ukrainian army retreats, with the exception of Izyum (oh the irony) and Mariupoľ. The current invasion in Luhansk is going so bad, that it initiated another Purge at the Army leadership. Also in the east, the military units of the Russian army has been so decimated, that the leading force of the attack is now Wagner and Rosgvardia. The conventional Russian military units are just to decimated, including their officer ranks, that they are no longer feasible to execute the required offensive tasks in required power. Also, there are more and more ads around Russia for recruitment of officers, due to them being utterly decimated... 750+ are confirmed by their family members and city officials at their home cities... The theoretical number must be even more terrifying for the functioning of the Russian army. Also there are reports, that new reservists are deployed to the front just after a few days of training... Which says pretty much a lot about how bad the operation is going for Russia despite gaining ground in some small villages on flat land, which is impossible to defend by UA...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21

[Zoraptor]

Eh, problem is they've been saying that for three months now. Ukraine hasn't made any real progress after retaking some land around Kharkov (some of which they lost again over the last week, but it isn't strategically important either way), though they've had an excellent twitter offensive on Kherson for months. And yes, people have certainly been saying things like Severodonetsk is falling imminently too for ages, so it's not just one side doing it.

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

But  the initial objective did make sense because obviously if you can occupy Kiev you more or less achieve your primary goal of defeating the Ukrainian  forces   

It made sense under one single circumstance: you think you can force a political surrender rather than military victory, and you believe that the enemy won't fight. If they fight you've got nowhere near enough troops.

If your primary goal is 'defeating Ukrainian forces' you do things completely differently and concentrate on, well, defeating their army. Which probably means you go up/down the east bank of the Dniepr to cut the country in two; since there are a very limited number of places to cross the Dniepr and most of the Ukrainian army was in the east.

And on the list you made, really Bruce, most of those come from one guy who isn't even with us any more- and a couple I never saw here at all, though I did elsewhere. Might as well cite stuff from oby or LoF too.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Zoraptor

[xzar_monty]

Damn do I wish I spoke Russian and Ukrainian. Apparently there's been a strike at the Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery in Russia (confirmed by Reuters, for instance), today. Apparently this is a video of how it happens. Dang, but I'd love to know what these guys are saying.

 

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Well, even the operation in the east is not much more successful, than the operation around the Kyiv. The "funny" thing is, that the Russia is doing the same mistakes as Germans in WW2 while storming the Ukraine. They are able to seize only small villages, from which Ukrainian army retreats, with the exception of Izyum (oh the irony) and Mariupoľ. The current invasion in Luhansk is going so bad, that it initiated another Purge at the Army leadership. Also in the east, the military units of the Russian army has been so decimated, that the leading force of the attack is now Wagner and Rosgvardia. The conventional Russian military units are just to decimated, including their officer ranks, that they are no longer feasible to execute the required offensive tasks in required power. Also, there are more and more ads around Russia for recruitment of officers, due to them being utterly decimated... 750+ are confirmed by their family members and city officials at their home cities... The theoretical number must be even more terrifying for the functioning of the Russian army. Also there are reports, that new reservists are deployed to the front just after a few days of training... Which says pretty much a lot about how bad the operation is going for Russia despite gaining ground in some small villages on flat land, which is impossible to defend by UA...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21

Thats a good read and objective, its not " pro " Russian or Ukrainian and appears to focus on developments as they know them

[HoonDing]

Gary Johnson called.

He wants to know what "Ukraine" is

[BruceVC]

https://www.ibtimes.com/goat-injures-russian-soldiers-triggering-tripwires-grenades-3546435

Now the Ruskies are facing goats which I assume are military trained by the US ....what next  

[bugarup]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Damn do I wish I spoke Russian and Ukrainian. Apparently there's been a strike at the Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery in Russia (confirmed by Reuters, for instance), today. Apparently this is a video of how it happens. Dang, but I'd love to know what these guys are saying.

Nothing too interesting:

That a drone? Huh.
Where are you?
*muffled something*
Of course not. I'm not seeing. Not seeing...
Did it dive?
(boom!)
****!!!!
**** **** ****ity ****ity ****!!!
Plant got blown up!
Go go go go go
Radio: Drone had dived.
Yeah, flied in, **** me.
And that's that, my dudes, and thats that. NPZ went boom.
Did it come from Ukraine? Really?
Yeah, from that direction.
Radio: We stopping working, no?
Radio: It's on fire, get out!
Radio: Plant got blown up!
That fire will spread, we gotta gtfo.

 

The video itself is lovely though.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by bugarup

[xzar_monty]

Thanks a lot for that!

[Mamoulian War]

Well, there have been a lot of attacks on Russian and occupied soil in last few days. 7 ammunition warehouses blown up in DNR, something has expolded in Simferopol in Crimea, 2 occupied Russian gas/oil rigs blown up in Black Sea, one big warehouse and command center near Kharkiv, and a lot of kabooms around Belgorod.

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Eh, problem is they've been saying that for three months now. Ukraine hasn't made any real progress after retaking some land around Kharkov (some of which they lost again over the last week, but it isn't strategically important either way), though they've had an excellent twitter offensive on Kherson for months. And yes, people have certainly been saying things like Severodonetsk is falling imminently too for ages, so it's not just one side doing it.

In the Kharkiv region Ukrainian offensive is now concentrated around Balaklia, and because Kharkiv is practically impossible to conquer, they left only minimum troops guarding it, just to be able to maintain stalemate. And around Kherson and in Zaporizhia Oblast, the attack made there are primarily to lure out some Russian troops out of Luhansk Cauldron. When you compare how the map looked like after Russia left Kyiv two months ago, the Russia made only minimal gains. Ukraine took some land and is now concentrated on stalemate, until more of the stuff from land-lease arrives, while doing as much damage to Russian troops as possible. And yes a lot of Ukrainian troops die as well, but still less than in Russian army. And then, there is as much sabotage as possible at Russian and occupied soil to hinder their GLOCs as much as possible.

[kanisatha]

Damn, I really got to give massive kudos to Lithuania. Their railroad action against Russia has the whiney crybabies in Moscow going bat-crap crazy! They're literally losing their minds, because tiny Lithuania has come up with a completely legal under international law way to REALLY stick it to the Russians, and there's precious little Russia can do about it short of invading NATO territory. Every argument the Russians raise about how "wrong" this is can be turned right back around on them! Lavrov, Peskov and co. are so apoplectic its side-splittingly hilarious. I'm keeping my fingers crossed it pushes Palputin's ticker over the line. Man, Lithuania is ****ing brilliant!!