Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[Mamoulian War]

And speaking of Eastern front, it looks like, Ukrainian defenders around Bakhmut, and hopefully around Lysychansk and Avdiivka as well, will have less busy week or two.

This happened today south of Popasna and east of Bakhmut on the soil of LNR near town Hannivka. Looks like Russian army had a pretty big warehouse there...

 

[Malcador]

 

[xzar_monty]

@Malcador, you only post information concerning Ukrainian losses or failures and things that are generally going badly for "the west". Why's that? I'm just curious.

[Malcador]

53 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

@Malcador, you only post information concerning Ukrainian losses or failures and things that are generally going badly for "the west". Why's that? I'm just curious.

Yes, "just curious".  But MW beats me to any pro-Ukrainian news, most of the time.  Other than that the pro-UA stuff I see will just be T-72s getting blown up and such, and I try to not gawk at that.   Kherson is probably good news for Ukraine, but not sure what's to talk about as there's a blackout of sorts about it. 

 

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Yes, "just curious".  But MW beats me to any pro-Ukrainian news, most of the time.  Other than that the pro-UA stuff I see will just be T-72s getting blown up and such, and I try to not gawk at that.   Kherson is probably good news for Ukraine, but not sure what's to talk about as there's a blackout of sorts about it. 

 

Why the snark?

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

 

Malcador confirmed to be the oby. 

[majestic]

3 minutes ago, KP wants Blue Velvet said:

 

Malcador confirmed to be the oby. 

I think that's Russian disinformation. Oby changed his name is and is now making German TV ads:

 

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

5 minutes ago, majestic said:

I think that's Russian disinformation. Oby changed his name is and is now making German TV ads:

 

I think the truth is that oby multipled and now there are several obys. Soon we will all be oby.

[HoonDing]

oby was Polish

[Sarex]

4 hours ago, HoonDing said:

oby was Polish

He transcended borders.

[Mamoulian War]

Village of Ivanivka in northern Kherson oblast, which was occupied for a very long time (probably since march) was liberated by Ukrainian army. As Malcador said, there is not much info getting out of Ukraine about the fights in Kherson, because GRU has made informational embargo on the counteroffensive and every single Ukrainian milbolgger, that I am aware of is adhering it.

Also, Ukraine scored today another pretty big hit in Melitopol, allegedly by HIMARS (as the city is in the middle of occupied Zaporozhia Oblast). They obliterated the local airfield and destroyed a lot of Russian equipment. Also there are reports (which I was not able to confirm yet), that this attack was conducted simultaneously with partisan attacks targeting military infrastructure inside the city.

https://t.me/hromadske_ua/23069

"Non-existent" Ukrainian Airforce also performed a lot of sorties all over the 4 occupied southern Oblasts against Russian military targets. No pictures yet, and no reports of downed UA jets from Russian milbloggers, so it looks like they might have been successful as well.

Also according to NASA FIRMS surveillance systems, there were a lot of heat anomalies detected deep in Russian Occupied territory around Izyum, near the cities crucial for Russian GLOCs between Belgorod and the frontlines. Also allegedly by HIMARS.

 

EDIT: Ivanivka was occupied by Russia since 3rd of April. That would mean, the first line of Russian defense in the northern Kherson Oblast has been breached yesterday.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[pmp10]

A short report was published by RUSI on what Ukraine would need to stay in the fight.
TLDR: More advanced weaponry, munitions and even training. 

And maybe the most important bit:

Quote

These requirements cannot be met through the donation of existing stocks[...]

 

[Mamoulian War]

28 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

A short report was published by RUSI on what Ukraine would need to stay in the fight.
TLDR: More advanced weaponry, munitions and even training. 

And maybe the most important bit:

 

Then Zelenskyi is in luck, because 800 US companies are prepared to manufacture for Ukraine.

[Malcador]

From the RUSI report, found this funny. Although maybe it's just GLONAS not working

"Interestingly, the Iskander 9M727 cruise missile – and this may be true of the others also – relies on GPS and GLONAS for its satellite navigation and is unable to receive BeiDou signals. The GPS is the primary navigation tool for the missile, probably because Russian satellite coverage over target countries is intermittent and because it is assumed that the enemy will not deny GPS signals over territory that they control."

 

[Darkpriest]

Ouch.... I do not see Germany adding more aid to UA if they need to do such things right now. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/uniper-in-talks-over-bailout-package-to-plug-9-4-billion-hole

[Mamoulian War]

The interesting thing is, That I have not seen a report of Iskander missile being fired in more than a month...

Anyway a little bit of info which hit me during last few days about Lysychansk situation.

 

Both RU and UA sources claimed, that a month ago, there was 15000+ UA soldiers. Short while before retreating from Severodonetsk, Hirske and Zolote, UA units got the order for controlled retreat from area. From Zolote, they retreated swiftly and with almost no issues. Unfortunately for them, a pocket of soldiers who covered they retreat, was created in Hirske, which lead to big number of PoW, after it's capture (I have not find how big the number was). The interesting thing is, that it looks like, that UA started with retreat of heavy machinery, which is pretty well documented by both UA and RU sources. There were some casualties of the machinery. UA sources says that it was not very significant, RU sources says that more than 700 pieces of heavy machinerey were captured or destroyed. The thing is, not a single photo of caputred or destroyed machines have been released so far to back up these RU claims, which I find it strange, because as soon as first soldier arrived in center of Lysychansk, there was constant flood of photos released. Therefore, my conslusion is, that the UA reports are more plausible.

So after a month of controlled retreat from the last places of Luhansk Oblast, the city of Lysychansk has fallen, with sources from UA claiming, that around 500 soldiers were unable to escape, and RU claiming that more than 2000 are still trapped there. Another interesting thing is, that after the fall of Lysychansk, there are now almost no PoW reported by RU sources. It is statistically impossible to have almost no PoWs from the pool of 2000 soldiers trapped, therefore I am again more inclined to believe to reports from UA side.

So my conclusion from the whole Luhansk cauldron is, that despite the Russia celebrating the victory in whole Luhansk Oblast already, it came at an ridiculous cost on their side, while UA was able to retreat at least 10000 soldiers alive (even the number around 12000 is still pretty plausible) out of the cauldron with almost intact heavy machinery... That is indeed a prime example of Pyrrhic victory for Russia, as there are educated guesses that RU had in this fight approx 5 times as much casualties than UA. My guess pulled out of my ass according to info, which I got from various sources is that UA could have approx 2k casualties, which would mean minimum of 10k casualties on RU side (during last month of this siege, the number of confirmed RU losses in senior officer ranks has increased by around 200, possibly even more). The other interesting thing is, that UA is now in the east using pretty much the same tactic, as RU used to defeat Napoleon. Exhaust as much of enemy forces in fortified strongholds, then run away safely and repeat.

Also speaking of RU "victory in Luhansk, UA aremy still holds ground in Bilohorivka, the infamous village, where the UA army destroyed whole RU BTG, during river crossing, and yesterday, 4 more RU army ammunition warehouses have been blown up deep in the occupied LNR/DNR territory

[Mamoulian War]

28 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Ouch.... I do not see Germany adding more aid to UA if they need to do such things right now. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/uniper-in-talks-over-bailout-package-to-plug-9-4-billion-hole

Though your statement is in complete contrast over what the leaders said during the last weeks NATO talks in Madrid

Also if you are used to linking some of, let me say interesting" ZH articles, allow me to make a counter with this video analysis, which is talking about how the West is going to "weaponize" recession against Russia, so if that analysis is plausible, then the most powerful Western countries have already prepared countermeasures for the economic hardship which will hit our economies in the next few months, because it will definitely ruin Russia, which is the end goal. I bet China is already celebrating to get their hand on cheap Siberia assets, and probably preparing grab for Manchuria, which they lost to Russia after the Boxer Rebellion

 

[Mamoulian War]

Oh and another interesting news from yesterday. Defense Politics Asia has reported, that UA army captured Snihurivka in Kherson Oblast. As of this morning, UA side did not confirm this, but that could be contributed to still ongoing embargo on Kherson Front reports. If this report by DPA is indeed correct, that would be very interesting news as well, probably one of the most interesting from whole battlefield in last few days maybe weeks. Snihurivka was also captured by Russians on April 3rd, and since then, they turned it into most fortified city in Kherson oblast, as it is very important logistic node for RU GLOCs inside Kherson Oblast and for possible future RU offensive against Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. This would also mean that the first line of Russian defense line on Southern Front was breach at another, this time very significant place.

[Zoraptor]

16 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Both RU and UA sources claimed, that a month ago, there was 15000+ UA soldiers. Short while before retreating from Severodonetsk, Hirske and Zolote, UA units got the order for controlled retreat from area. From Zolote, they retreated swiftly and with almost no issues. Unfortunately for them, a pocket of soldiers who covered they retreat, was created in Hirske, which lead to big number of PoW, after it's capture (I have not find how big the number was). The interesting thing is, that it looks like, that UA started with retreat of heavy machinery, which is pretty well documented by both UA and RU sources. There were some casualties of the machinery. UA sources says that it was not very significant, RU sources says that more than 700 pieces of heavy machinerey were captured or destroyed. The thing is, not a single photo of caputred or destroyed machines have been released so far to back up these RU claims, which I find it strange, because as soon as first soldier arrived in center of Lysychansk, there was constant flood of photos released. Therefore, my conslusion is, that the UA reports are more plausible.

There are some photos of captured gear. The problem with judging anything from the Russian side is that their actual army is... kind of a social media black hole. It's the LPR (and DPR, though not so relevant here) and Chechens who post everything, plus there's some tv footage.

This is also one of those situations where both can be telling the truth. Ukraine almost certainly didn't lose much in Lisichansk proper as it doesn't seem to have been directly contested much at all on the ground. One of the advantages to defending in cities is how hard it is to hit tanks and like which are inside them as all the pesky buildings get in the way for both direct and indirect fire. OTOH, they almost certainly lost a fair bit on the Donetsk's east bank due to the bridges being down. Not too hard to get the men out, but you're probably not going to be able to get many vehicles back. The big question is how much they lost during the retreat from Lisichansk etc, and there's no answer to that beyond the weak evidence of there being a fair number of videos of Ukrainian troops walking themselves out; because it was Russian regulars taking that area so no pictures. They also had ~6 weeks of having to supply those 15k troops along a salient that was less than 20km wide at the start and only got narrower, along one decent road (two at the start) for most of the time that was within easy artillery range and was probably anything but decent at the end. It's likely that the Russian are now going past a lot of destroyed equipment hit while resupplying and dumped off the side of the road as unrepairable. Open question is how much was hit during the retreat itself, and how much Ukraine had in the first place. Unlikely that there were 700 tanks or a/ifvs and artillery (exc mortars, but most mortars aren't really 'heavy') there total, but if you include trucks etc 700 could be accurate; and Ukraine could have lost relatively few of them recently.

Quote

That is indeed a prime example of Pyrrhic victory for Russia, as there are educated guesses that RU had in this fight approx 5 times as much casualties than UA.

That's extremely unlikely. If there was one consistent complaint from the Ukraine side apart from supply issues it was that Russia had a massive advantage in artillery, and artillery is what causes most casualties. It could be a 5:1 ratio in terms of direct small arms confrontation, but from Ukrainian sources the problem was always that they'd fight the Russian infantry off, then get hit with a massive artillery barrage which often made them wish they hadn't (I particularly remember the guy interviewed for the WP who disliked Ukrainian tanks being nearby for that reason; when normally you'd expect them to be very keen on having heavy weapons support). There are also signs that Ukraine is really starting to feel a manpower crunch with the ban on draft age men* leaving their home cities without permission.

*about which there seems to be a fair amount of... variable interpretation, but we do have it being specifically addressed by Zelensky so the order itself must be real.

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

There are some photos of captured gear. The problem with judging anything from the Russian side is that their actual army is... kind of a social media black hole. It's the LPR (and DPR, though not so relevant here) and Chechens who post everything, plus there's some tv footage.

This is also one of those situations where both can be telling the truth. Ukraine almost certainly didn't lose much in Lisichansk proper as it doesn't seem to have been directly contested much at all on the ground. One of the advantages to defending in cities is how hard it is to hit tanks and like which are inside them as all the pesky buildings get in the way for both direct and indirect fire. OTOH, they almost certainly lost a fair bit on the Donetsk's east bank due to the bridges being down. Not too hard to get the men out, but you're probably not going to be able to get many vehicles back. The big question is how much they lost during the retreat from Lisichansk etc, and there's no answer to that beyond the weak evidence of there being a fair number of videos of Ukrainian troops walking themselves out; because it was Russian regulars taking that area so no pictures. They also had ~6 weeks of having to supply those 15k troops along a salient that was less than 20km wide at the start and only got narrower, along one decent road (two at the start) for most of the time that was within easy artillery range and was probably anything but decent at the end. It's likely that the Russian are now going past a lot of destroyed equipment hit while resupplying and dumped off the side of the road as unrepairable. Open question is how much was hit during the retreat itself, and how much Ukraine had in the first place. Unlikely that there were 700 tanks or a/ifvs and artillery (exc mortars, but most mortars aren't really 'heavy') there total, but if you include trucks etc 700 could be accurate; and Ukraine could have lost relatively few of them recently.

That's extremely unlikely. If there was one consistent complaint from the Ukraine side apart from supply issues it was that Russia had a massive advantage in artillery, and artillery is what causes most casualties. It could be a 5:1 ratio in terms of direct small arms confrontation, but from Ukrainian sources the problem was always that they'd fight the Russian infantry off, then get hit with a massive artillery barrage which often made them wish they hadn't (I particularly remember the guy interviewed for the WP who disliked Ukrainian tanks being nearby for that reason; when normally you'd expect them to be very keen on having heavy weapons support). There are also signs that Ukraine is really starting to feel a manpower crunch with the ban on draft age men* leaving their home cities without permission.

*about which there seems to be a fair amount of... variable interpretation, but we do have it being specifically addressed by Zelensky so the order itself must be real.

Well. The very big losses ratio is approximated even by that **** Girkin. He explicitly said, that even if Russia have artillery advantage, the Russian officers are still engaging all the fights on the terms set by Ukrainian army and sending "unfortunate" Russian soldiers to die in the urban areas, which are much better in shielding UA soldiers from the most dangerous artillery strikes compared to open fields around cities. And yes, we all already know how big of a **** he is, but he is unfortunately, the only source from Russia side, who is not spewing **** all around the place... Because he want to turn the common Russian folk opinion into supporting general mobilization, and uses the truth of costly is for Russian army the incompetence of current military leadership.

And the situation of the draft age men in Ukraine, from day or two ago, according to our media, is that GRU has released order to not allow people to move between military districts inside UA, without permission of local conscription centers. It looks like, this move was made without the approval of the UA leadership, as Zelenskyi has as a reaction to this released a statement, that all such orders must be consulted with him/leadership. The real causes for both of these orders can be interpreted in many ways, and would be pure speculation, although it is very easy to slip, into the Russian troll narrative, that it is definitely because of high desertion on UA side. Fact is, there is no chance to completely stop the desertion and conscription avoidance, but compared to situation in LNR and DNR, where big numbers of men are hiding for few months from hidden conscription already, it is much more in favour to Ukraine to get new conscripts, who are willing to fight. This is underscored by that fact, that Russia has passed this week new legislation about forced conscription in Crimea, which was up until now for some reason more or less excluded from most of the RU mobilization efforts...

[Mamoulian War]

As the number of Ammunition Depots and Command Centers of Russian army is growing thinner, someone made a thread of pretty much confirmed kabooms deep in occupied territories.

 

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And yes, we all already know how big of a **** he is, but he is unfortunately, the only source from Russia side, who is not spewing **** all around the place... Because he want to turn the common Russian folk opinion into supporting general mobilization, and uses the truth of costly is for Russian army the incompetence of current military leadership.

Or he is just being overly pessimistic for Russia.  He's not a truth teller because his slant is appealing, after all.  

Seems mostly the retreat went well though, pro-RU social media saying mostly gear lost rather than people killed.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Malcador

[Darkpriest]

On 7/5/2022 at 10:47 AM, Mamoulian War said:

Though your statement is in complete contrast over what the leaders said during the last weeks NATO talks in Madrid

Also if you are used to linking some of, let me say interesting" ZH articles, allow me to make a counter with this video analysis, which is talking about how the West is going to "weaponize" recession against Russia, so if that analysis is plausible, then the most powerful Western countries have already prepared countermeasures for the economic hardship which will hit our economies in the next few months, because it will definitely ruin Russia, which is the end goal. I bet China is already celebrating to get their hand on cheap Siberia assets, and probably preparing grab for Manchuria, which they lost to Russia after the Boxer Rebellion

 

Of course that China will utilize this to gain position on Russia, their and India's businesses are already filling the vacuum, including electronics. 

Now, in worst case scenarios, by German analysts, Germany GDP could drop 6-12% equaling to 5-6mln workplaces lost... I doubt they are ready for such sacrifices. 

 

Already the global recession is being priced in aand appearing in more and more bases cases for late year 2022 (as I've predicted for late Q3), commodities are falling as a result of demand destruction, liquidity issues, and generally poor economic outlook. Oil even dropped below 100 amd that's with OPEC missing on prod quotas. 

As for aid, talks are great, but these need to materialize and i do not see that happening. What I do see, is everyone hoping that this can end before winter time and that UA will understtand they cannot 'win' and will conceed before the winter time. 

 

Meanwhile, military aid by country so far.  (to put perspective of 9bln bailout in Germany, and that's without full cut off and only first of the energy providers) 

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

Gas and Nuclear devlared Green in EU. The Gas part is critical here, as it may open up pulling LPG powered vehicles as green as well to help collapsing auto industry in EU. It also opens up potential to invest in LPG infrastructure, without which, business will be keeling over. 

Or it may open NS2 soon after the war ends.. (a cynic in me says this) 

[Mamoulian War]

Well I still think a lot of people in the west (hopefully a lot of politician in charge) can see, that doing nothing would cost the EU much more in the end, than spent few years in recession. And yes NS2 might be opened soon, and I would not object at all to open it. Of course only if some guys would finally fins enough balls to offer some lead treatment to Vladimir...

The other thing is, that EU is already in heavy talks with African countries like Senegal, DPR Congo (probably even more), about improving their LNG/gas drilling infrastructure. Which if done correctly and in at least half the amount, which are we now importing from Russia, would be much more benefiting to EU. If for nothing, than at least for it being less of an security issue to us.