Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."

[Gorth]

2 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

If it is not you but your neighbor that takes up arms and wants to kill you, what are you going to do then?

Kill them with extreme prejudice of course... Not blaming Ukrainians for defending their home. Blaming people for starting wars for "their country". Defending your home and your family isn't quite the same (I think).

 

Edit: I.e. I would wage war against Russia because of my hatred of what Putin is doing to other people, not because of some flag I'm supposed to feel somehow represents me. I.e. tangible reasons over symbolic reasons.

[xzar_monty]

1 minute ago, Gorth said:

Kill them with extreme prejudice of course... Not blaming Ukrainians for defending their home. Blaming people for starting wars for "their country". Defending your home and your family isn't quite the same (I think).

Agreed. But killing the invaders requires commitment and infrastructure that is exceedingly unlikely to be free from nationalism of at least some kind.

[Gorth]

10 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Agreed. But killing the invaders requires commitment and infrastructure that is exceedingly unlikely to be free from nationalism of at least some kind.

You might be surprised how much hatred can unite people. Often faster and tighter than the love of anything. In the actual case, the Ukrainians are doing the dying, but it's not just Ukraine fighting against Russia. The US, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, are all *active* participants in the war. Claiming otherwise would be dishonest. What I'm trying to say is, it's not a nation against a nation, but an autocrat and his tools against several groups of people who either volunteer or gather and provide resources for those fighting at the front lines.

The two words nobody has mentioned yet is 'social contract' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_contract

"In moral and political philosophy, the social contract is a theory or model that originated during the Age of Enlightenment and usually concerns the legitimacy of the authority of the state over the individual. Social contract arguments typically are that individuals have consented, either explicitly or tacitly, to surrender some of their freedoms and submit to the authority (of the ruler, or to the decision of a majority) in exchange for protection of their remaining rights or maintenance of the social order"

This is for me a much more powerful thing than people telling me I have to go fight for some colours on a piece of cloth or a nation state (which for me is something akin to the pinnacle of human idiocy). If you feel your ruler or the 'majority' you identify with is worth putting your life on the line for, then by all means do so. Question is, can you force other people to do the same? I served my time back in Denmark after getting drafted and I didn't mind. As it turned out, I ended up in the Civil Defense rather than the military, but that was the RNG involved in picking a ballot out of the bowl to see where you end up (which is way past the point of no return), so I was never conscientious objector or draft dodger myself.

[Chilloutman]

I am not huge fan of nationalism myself but idea that social surrounding we live in is not at least partially affected by our ancestors which as group decided on set of morals they followed (eg, national identity per say) is false. Thats why states and nations are different from each other even if the structure holding it together is same. Hence Nationalism can be good and bad

[kanisatha]

Willingness to die for a country entirely depends on how that country has treated you. For me, as an immigrant to the US, I would gladly die for the US because it took me in when it had no obligation to do so, and gave me a really good life. By contrast I would never give anything to my country of birth which, when I was age 16, tried to murder me and my entire family.

[kanisatha]

2 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

I am not huge fan of nationalism myself but idea that social surrounding we live in is not at least partially affected by our ancestors which as group decided on set of morals they followed (eg, national identity per say) is false. Thats why states and nations are different from each other even if the structure holding it together is same. Hence Nationalism can be good and bad

Well said!!

Also, kudos for understanding that states and nations are different things. It takes the life out of me trying to explain this to my students every semester in my intro to poli sci and intro to international relations classes.

[xzar_monty]

10 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Willingness to die for a country entirely depends on how that country has treated you. For me, as an immigrant to the US, I would gladly die for the US because it took me in when it had no obligation to do so, and gave me a really good life. By contrast I would never give anything to my country of birth which, when I was age 16, tried to murder me and my entire family.

Not entirely, although what you say certainly holds true to a great degree. There are other forces involved, too, such as territorialism and, of course, indoctrination. Russia has a long history of treating its citizens with almost unparallelled cruelty, yet look at WW2 or today's news.

[Darkpriest]

@BruceVC

For you 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oil-producers-stay-one-step-ahead-of-sanctions-11654076614?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

[Darkpriest]

Seems US is keen on testing Russia's resolve around where their Red Line is. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-sell-ukraine-advanced-drones-armed-hellfire-missiles-coming-days

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-engaged-offensive-cyber-ops-against-russia-ukraine-nsa-director-admits-first

 

[kanisatha]

14 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Not entirely, although what you say certainly holds true to a great degree. There are other forces involved, too, such as territorialism and, of course, indoctrination. Russia has a long history of treating its citizens with almost unparallelled cruelty, yet look at WW2 or today's news.

Okay, fair enough. I guess I was looking at it as a question of people acting knowingly and of their complete free will, a conscious act and not an automatic/unthinking reflex.

[xzar_monty]

7 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Okay, fair enough. I guess I was looking at it as a question of people acting knowingly and of their complete free will, a conscious act and not an automatic/unthinking reflex.

North Korea would be an even more dramatic example of this other kind of willingness to die for one's country(*). But then, North Korea has only just happened, Russia has been around for a very long time.

(*) Although we have no proof, as of yet.

[Lexx]

33 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-engaged-offensive-cyber-ops-against-russia-ukraine-nsa-director-admits-first

B-but it was anonymous!

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Seems US is keen on testing Russia's resolve around where their Red Line is. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-sell-ukraine-advanced-drones-armed-hellfire-missiles-coming-days

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-engaged-offensive-cyber-ops-against-russia-ukraine-nsa-director-admits-first

Well, I would argue that Russia violated the US's red line by invading Ukraine in the first place. Everyone always loves to talk about other countries' red lines that the US is supposed to respect, but it's somehow always okay for everyone else in the world to ignore US red lines and interests.

I don't care for Biden at all as president, but on the issue of US support for Ukraine in this war I have only praise for Biden so far. I'm all for the US (and any other country that will join us in this) to totally stick it to Putin's Russia. The Russians will huff and puff, but like every other coward ever in world history, they don't have the guts to go beyond their silly empty rhetoric about "world war iii."

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Seems US is keen on testing Russia's resolve around where their Red Line is. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-sell-ukraine-advanced-drones-armed-hellfire-missiles-coming-days

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-engaged-offensive-cyber-ops-against-russia-ukraine-nsa-director-admits-first

 

Wonder how the Americans will inevitably punch themselves in the face in this situation.

[kanisatha]

Biden, Saudi Arabia, and OPEC production increase:

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-06-02/pledge-of-more-oil-heightens-odds-of-saudi-trip-for-biden

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Willingness to die for a country entirely depends on how that country has treated you. For me, as an immigrant to the US, I would gladly die for the US because it took me in when it had no obligation to do so, and gave me a really good life. By contrast I would never give anything to my country of birth which, when I was age 16, tried to murder me and my entire family.

This, btw, provides a reasonable measure of the value of a country: would it take you in and give you a really good life. Or, looked at from a different point of view: how many countries do people want to get into in order to have a really good life, regardless of whether the country is explicitly welcoming or not. While there are many problems with America, it remains a fact that people do want to get there in order to live a better life. They also want to get into Europe.

Russia is not a place people want to get into to improve their life, and never has been. There is no history of Russia being a destiny of dreams. There is a very well-known history of people wanting to get the heck out of there, though. Even Stalin's daughter herself escaped. Apparently the prospect of Russia's dwindling population is one motivation for Putin to invade Ukraine. I don't know the literature, but apparently he has written about this.

Incidentally, I just read about the quality of life in Russia during the first two decades of this new millennium. I suppose we all know that life expectancy in Russia is remarkably low. There are several possible reasons for this, such as overuse of alcohol, bad food, excessive violence and so on, but it was very intriguing to note that as these factors were studied, neither any of them in isolation nor even the combination of them all could explain the drastic difference between Russia and many other countries. Thus, after some heavy deliberation, the conclusion was that Russians apparently die of loneliness and hopelessness. This is not a scientifically proven conclusion and can be challenged, but the data was really quite interesting. And harrowing: just very, very sad. Since there is no societal or sometimes even familial trust, people get lonely. And since there is not much to look forward to and no avenues for self-expression, people lose hope. And then they die young, significantly younger than in so many other places.

(And then a rhetorical question: how difficult would it be to motivate lonely and hopeless people to do terrible things?)

[Darkpriest]

38 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Biden, Saudi Arabia, and OPEC production increase:

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-06-02/pledge-of-more-oil-heightens-odds-of-saudi-trip-for-biden

To put in perspective... 

After just 11 minutes, a new record for brevity, the OPEC+ minister meeting ended and as noted earlier, concluded by agreeing to a 648K increase for both July and August, the first time that OPEC+ has deviated from its standard monthly increase of 432K since the increments were started last summer. The decision will accelerate the completion of OPEC's reversal of several years of output cuts a month earlier than planned.

In the grand scheme of things, the 200K or so increase in output does nothing. Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes, any bigger increase will be shared pro-rata by all participants which is "going to eat into the volume actually delivered by quite a bit."

 

https://twitter.com/Amena__Bakr/status/1532358075650301954?s=20&t=luS_-pzM2SKlgg0xaSPx6g

 

[Malcador]

3 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

I suppose we all know that life expectancy in Russia is remarkably low

For men, at least, women not that much.

[213374U]

3 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

I am not huge fan of nationalism myself but idea that social surrounding we live in is not at least partially affected by our ancestors which as group decided on set of morals they followed (eg, national identity per say) is false. Thats why states and nations are different from each other even if the structure holding it together is same. Hence Nationalism can be good and bad

Nationalism is a 19th century political theory that is centered on the idea that what you are describing can only be properly embodied by a nation-state, though. Hardly anyone but the most hardcore globalists disagrees with the notion of national identities, but a lot more people aren't big on the "state" part.

In this light, looking at the historical track record of nationalism, it's hard to rank it higher than "necessary evil" at the best of times.

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Apparently the prospect of Russia's dwindling population is one motivation for Putin to invade Ukraine. I don't know the literature, but apparently he has written about this.

That's why Russia has stolen some 200,000 children from Ukraine during the war thus far. Literally kidnapped them, both from their parents as well as from orphanages, the most heinous human rights abuse they have committed of all. They have been taken away and placed in homes in faraway remote parts of Russia to be raised with indoctrination that they are Russian and not Ukrainian. International human rights lawyers have stated that such deportations and illegal "adoptions" are tantamount to genocide under international law, which is why Sec. Blinken said 'yes' in a recent interview when asked if what Russia is doing in Ukraine can be (legally) considered genocide.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-accuses-russia-forcibly-deporting-over-210000-children-2022-05-13/

[kanisatha]

Putin, cancer, and assassination attempt (in a Newsweek exclusive, from people quoting a classified US intel report):

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

[xzar_monty]

10 hours ago, Malcador said:

For men, at least, women not that much.

Yep. Good clarification.

[xzar_monty]

8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Putin, cancer, and assassination attempt (in a Newsweek exclusive, from people quoting a classified US intel report):

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

Interesting that it's Newsweek. I think it was also Newsweek that reported how nicely Russia took care to inflict as little damage as possible in Ukraine. Do correct me if I'm wrong. That article has been quoted here, too, and described as a "truth bomb".

This, btw, is not a comment on the article you just linked. Very hard to say how trustworthy that one is.

[BruceVC]

13 hours ago, Gorth said:

You might be surprised how much hatred can unite people. Often faster and tighter than the love of anything. In the actual case, the Ukrainians are doing the dying, but it's not just Ukraine fighting against Russia. The US, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, are all *active* participants in the war. Claiming otherwise would be dishonest. What I'm trying to say is, it's not a nation against a nation, but an autocrat and his tools against several groups of people who either volunteer or gather and provide resources for those fighting at the front lines.

 

Nah, their would be no Western alliance or anti-Russian  sentiment  to the degree we seeing it if Putin hadn't invaded Ukraine. Its not hatred that has united the West but the constant attempts of Putin to ignore the sovereignty of former Soviet states and his attempts to recreate the Soviet borders and that objective has now led to an invasion on the border of the EU which automatically means the West will be " involved ". This is about safety and security for the West and its allies....its not about hatred that caused the initial Western response 

And its absolutely a war between 2 nations because its all caused by one thing, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Thats what caused it. The West is providing the financial and logistical support to Ukraine but their are no NATO forces in Ukraine or US soldiers and until that happens its not a war between NATO member states  and Russia

And something else, Putin has no agency or authority to tell any other country who they should or shouldn't politically or economically align with. Ukraine is an independent  country and its important to accept and respect the fact that this means they get to decide their own future....Putin doesnt get to decide that 

 

[xzar_monty]

14 hours ago, Gorth said:

You might be surprised how much hatred can unite people. Often faster and tighter than the love of anything.

This is evolutionary. We are hard-wired for dangers, both perceived and real. This is seen both in individuals and communities, and it's very hard if not impossible to bypass. It's good to be aware of it, though.

So, bad news or a bad experience will provoke a stronger reaction than good news or a good experience of equal "size". Anyone will know this from their own life, although measuring that "size" requires special equipment. But everyone knows it is the bad stuff people react so strongly to and come back to, in their inner life, and brood upon.