Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

I dunno, he's just spewing BS the NRA trash eat up. If he were in charge now, he'd be bellicose as hell, knowing the people would love that.  Well that and probably tweeting intelligence out just for bragging purposes.

With the war, anyone know what kind of Harpoons the Danes are sending?

The ones, which make big bad kaboom.

 

On a more serious note, Danes have RGM-84A. According to some site, which about which credibility I have no clue, it is possible they get some mix with other variants from other countries as well. But the deal is done by the Denmark.

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

And sorry for triple post, I have just noticed it now. It looks like, that after a very long time of stalemate, the Ukraine started at least some small scale counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast.

 

https://t.me/lumsrc/1589

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

On a more serious note, Danes have RGM-84A. According to some site, which about which credibility I have no clue, it is possible they get some mix with other variants from other countries as well. But the deal is done by the Denmark.

Yes they are the land-based version of the Harpoon. Many US allies have Harpoon, but Denmark is one of the very few countries that has the land-based version. Apparently those Harpoons and more US M777 howitzers were very recently delivered. The M777s are only now getting into the fight in the east, and are being assessed as highly effective.

On the M142 HiMARS, apparently the White House has decided to send them, but don't want to make a big public spectacle of it because the Russians are screaming about that crossing their red lines.

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

The ones, which make big bad kaboom.

 

On a more serious note, Danes have RGM-84A. According to some site, which about which credibility I have no clue, it is possible they get some mix with other variants from other countries as well. But the deal is done by the Denmark.

 

Ah ok, just curious about range. Recall the Danes retired Harpoons and so was not sure if it was old stock, but I appear to have imagined their retirement, heh.

[Gorth]

3 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Yes they are the land-based version of the Harpoon. Many US allies have Harpoon, but Denmark is one of the very few countries that has the land-based version. Apparently those Harpoons and more US M777 howitzers were very recently delivered. The M777s are only now getting into the fight in the east, and are being assessed as highly effective.

On the M142 HiMARS, apparently the White House has decided to send them, but don't want to make a big public spectacle of it because the Russians are screaming about that crossing their red lines.

That’s because Denmark and naval based Harpoon missiles don’t go hand in hand… I remember when this was new news

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Harpoon_missile_misfire_incident

[Mamoulian War]

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

Ah ok, just curious about range. Recall the Danes retired Harpoons and so was not sure if it was old stock, but I appear to have imagined their retirement, heh.

Little bit more on the Harpoon deals by Ukrainian sources. Probably overestimation, but even if that statement is 50% true, this is pretty big deal, and all the wheat might be able to get out of Odessa soon...

Also yesterday report of ISW was very interesting, and pretty much confirms, that the Ukrainian tactics of waiting for Russian implosion, although greatly costly, works. More and more pro-Russian bloggers are talking about the mismanagement and incompetence of Russian officers, which has catastrophic consequences for already shaken servicemen and officer morale... Well this is what you get, when you assign your promotion based on how much are they up in your ass, instead on how competent they are

 

"Ukrainian forces are also suffering serious losses in the Battle of Severodonetsk, as are Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. The Russians have concentrated a much higher proportion of their available offensive combat power to take Severodonetsk than the Ukrainians, however, shaping the attrition gradient generally in Kyiv’s favor. The Ukrainians continue to receive supplies and materiel from their allies as well, however slow and limited that flow may be. The Russians, in contrast, continue to manifest clear signs that they are burning through their available reserves of manpower and materiel with no reason to expect relief in the coming months.

Evidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.[1] Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines. ISW cannot independently confirm the GUR’s report, but commentary by Russian milbloggers offers some circumstantial support for it. Russian milblogger Alexander Zhychkovskiy criticized the Russian military command’s disregard for reservists on the deprioritized Zaporizhia Oblast front. Zhychkovskiy reported that Russian commanders trapped lightly-equipped infantry units in areas of intense Ukrainian artillery fire without significant artillery support and did not rotate other units through those areas to relieve them.[2] Zhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen. Another milblogger, Alexander Khodarkovsky, said that Russian commanders are not sending reinforcements in a timely matter, preventing Russian forces from resting between ground assaults.[3]

Waning professionalism among Russia’s officers could present Ukrainian forces with opportunities. Russian morale, already low, may drop further if such behavior is widespread and continues. If Russian troops stuck on secondary axes lose their will to fight as the Battle for Severdonetsk consumes much of the available Russian offensive combat power, Ukraine may have a chance to launch significant counteroffensives with good prospects for success. That prospect is uncertain, and Ukraine may not have the ability to take advantage of an opportunity even if it presents itself, but the current pattern of Russian operations is generating serious vulnerabilities that Kyiv will likely attempt to exploit."

 

 

[xzar_monty]

Some information on the extent of corruption and/or inefficiency in Russia: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/28/world/europe/russian-soldiers-military-supplies.html

Unfortunately, the capacity to wreak havoc and kill people is still great indeed.

[Malcador]

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Little bit more on the Harpoon deals by Ukrainian sources. Probably overestimation, but even if that statement is 50% true, this is pretty big deal, and all the wheat might be able to get out of Odessa soon...

Well they can keep the Russian navy away, but in terms of shipping, the Russians still have submarines and their own anti-ship missiles.  I doubt any freighter is going to get insurance on that run, anyway

[rjshae]

Ukrainian fighters take to electric bikes in the war against Russia

Quote

Ukrainian fighters are using electric bikes in the battle against Russia, mostly in support of reconnaissance missions, de-mining operations and medical deliveries, according to one of the Ukrainian e-bike makers involved. They’ve reportedly also been used for carrying out sniper attacks. The bikes have a top speed of 55 miles per hour and are relatively silent — helping their riders evade Russian fire.

Plus they are difficult to spot using infrared.

[Malcador]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-dead-russia-ukraine-27093054

Well, that's something.

[Chilloutman]

weird, I would expect more from MI6

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-dead-russia-ukraine-27093054

Well, that's something.

This one is pretty implausible... from the department of to good to be true

[Mamoulian War]

Also, here is pretty interesting interview, which pretty much confirmed, what I was "thinking about aloud" last few days in this thread
 

 

[Zoraptor]

I'm not clicking a Mirror link even for the lolz.

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Well they can keep the Russian navy away, but in terms of shipping, the Russians still have submarines and their own anti-ship missiles.  I doubt any freighter is going to get insurance on that run, anyway

Yes, but the plan is now to have them be escorted by the... Egyptian Navy, at last update. Surely that is enough protection?

Indeed, one of the more amusing things in the last week has been the evolution of the Lithuanian 'plan' to run the blockade as it got picked up and run with by the British political Brains Trust (or Brains Truss, since she seems to be keen on zero preparation ad libs) on a quest to distract from Boris Johnson being caught being a massive hypocrite about lockdowns again.

That's the negative of getting Turkey to declare things as a war; per Montreux you too cannot send ships through the Bosporus on war missions. Running a blockade is a war mission. They could have, if Ukraine were in NATO, but she isn't. They can't even send the Egyptian Navy in.

[Darkpriest]

Interesting PoV from one of Fund's managers

https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/ukraine-a-new-narrative-as-europe-unravels/

[Darkpriest]

Seems that ecpnomic costs are also becoming a problem on US side. 

A traditionally hawkish org, turns skeptical on aid. 

https://heritageaction.com/press/ukraine-aid-package-puts-america-last

[Mamoulian War]

Yesterday Lithuania has announced, that as a first country in the world is completely Russian Free on energy imports. No more gas, oil and electricity imports from Russia.

[Mamoulian War]

Little bit more on the Officer losses of Russia:

 

[Mamoulian War]

And looks like that helicopter news was misidentification
 

 

[kanisatha]

Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kherson.html

[Darkpriest]

Something to ponder on. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-The-EU-Plan-To-Ban-Russian-Oil-Could-Cause-Stagflation.html

I still aim with my thesis for end of Q3 early Q4 rapid changes in policies, should the Ukraine war persist until then. 

[xzar_monty]

An example of the consequences of persistent outright lying: Lavrov has strongly denied that Putin has health problems (https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-vladimir-putin-health-rumor-sergey-lavrov-deny-ill/). So the immediate conclusion is that since Lavrov puts it like that, Putin must be very seriously ill.

(Obviously we have no idea. But that's how you've come to read Lavrov, given his recent past.)

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Something to ponder on. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-The-EU-Plan-To-Ban-Russian-Oil-Could-Cause-Stagflation.html

I still aim with my thesis for end of Q3 early Q4 rapid changes in policies, should the Ukraine war persist until then. 

Im still waiting for the US and EU economies to collapse because of  the sanctions against Russia, when is that going to happen?

[BruceVC]

https://briefly.co.za/world/europe/127972-putin-engages-talks-german-french-leaders-ukraine-demands-sanctions-end/

The audacity and arrogance of Putin never ceases to amaze me. The Russian navy is blockading Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and preventing millions of tons of wheat from getting to mostly third world and impoverished countries 

But Putin wants Western sanctions dropped before he will allow the wheat to leave Ukraine.

I thought Western sanctions didnt matter and Russia was going to create a " new world economic order " ?

[xzar_monty]

27 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The audacity and arrogance of Putin never ceases to amaze me. The Russian navy is blockading Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and preventing millions of tons of wheat from getting to mostly third world and impoverished countries

A key tenet in Russian (military) thinking is that life has no value. Neither the life of your enemies nor the lives of your own. It is a nihilistic culture.

A historial case in point: when the Germans and the Soviets exchanged POWs after the war, the liberated Soviet POWs were immediately transported to prison camps in Siberia because they had, in the eyes of Stalin, committed treason by ending up as prisoners. So, you WILL be killed as soon as you have worn out your utility. You are always expendable.

You are amazed because you approach this question from a completely different paradigm, i.e. one where life has value.

Edited May 31, 2022 by xzar_monty