Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."

[Elerond]

13 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Thing is, Russia has never really had a problem with the EU, just NATO. They were fine with Ukraine joining the EU back in 2014 when Yanukovich was in charge, and they're fine with Ukraine joining the EU now.

Russia has lot of issues with EU

Russia blocked EU's and Ukraine's cooperation pact in 2013 when Yanukovich was in charge

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/05/06/russian-navy-warship-admiral-makarov-reportedly-sunk-by-ukrainian-missiles/

Another Russian warship may have been hit by Neptune missiles and is damaged\sinking  

Strange that in this instance all the OSINT people reported on radio chatter. Last night (well my time zone) was quiet or nothing out of ordinary.

[BruceVC]

6 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Strange that in this instance all the OSINT people reported on radio chatter. Last night (well my time zone) was quiet or nothing out of ordinary.

I havent seen anything yet on international news channels thats its true

[Gfted1]

Youde think with all the commercial satellite imagery coming out of there they would be able to verify these claims in (almost) real-time.

[Mamoulian War]

6 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/05/06/russian-navy-warship-admiral-makarov-reportedly-sunk-by-ukrainian-missiles/

Another Russian warship may have been hit by Neptune missiles and is damaged\sinking  

IIRC this one was made in 2011 for cca 500 millions USD

[Mamoulian War]

28 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Youde think with all the commercial satellite imagery coming out of there they would be able to verify these claims in (almost) real-time.

e.g. Maxar if I have noticed it correctly, if it has some images, it releases it always with few days of delay. Same with Ukrainian General Staff.

[Mamoulian War]

Sorry for multiposting, but I have just found this tweet. Please take it with grain of salt, I was not able to get any confirmation about it from sources, which I consider relevant, yet. Though it would be awesome if it is true...

edit: Although Peskov has released statement, that he does not know about any Russian ship on fire, which might be considered as a relevant enough source for the sunkage of ships

Also 5 more villages freed from Russian occupation in Kharkiv region.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Malcador]

 

[pmp10]

And on the technical side of new weaponry being introduced:
First video of switchblade use has surfaced.

Seems surprisingly... focused? 

[Lexx]

I'm confused. Did they try to hit the road?

[pmp10]

Presumably the dug-out.
Might be the soldiers moved once it was already committed to a strike. 
Still not exactly a marvelous showing for something hyped to be a game-changer.

[Mamoulian War]

They might be probably still learning how to use it properly.

[rjshae]

Even if it missed this time, there's still a psychological impact on front line soldiers.

[Zoraptor]

13 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

There are a lot of indications, that NATO was always a scapegoat, and the primary issue was always EU, especially in Eastern Europe, due to politicians which are elected by democratic means are not as lightly influenced by Russian bribes as autocratic leaders (see Orban). That's why all the funding from Russia to EE is funneled to Neonazis and populists with autocratic tendencies. For a lot of people at Kremlin, the imagination of Ukraine people (which are not a nation in their eyes) having free elections, and the possibility, that their common people getting more wealthy while integrating into EU structures is the direct threat to Russian way of governing and holding their own people on the leash.

No.

They don't have an issue with the EU for three reasons. (1) It's not very effective (2) they'd actually like an EU army, as that weakens NATO and (3) Ukraine is not getting into the EU anyway. 45 million extra people whose country has a GDP/c 60% of Belarus's?

If nothing else the Ukrainian agricultural sector alone would bankrupt the CAP (or whatever they're calling it now).

9 hours ago, Elerond said:

Russia has lot of issues with EU

Russia blocked EU's and Ukraine's cooperation pact in 2013 when Yanukovich was in charge

No. They. Didn't.

Really, it's not that hard to actually check these things. The EU made it an 'us or them' situation, not the Russians.

The EU stated that their offer was dependent on Ukraine refusing to join the Customs Union with Russia. The Russians did not put any such stipulations on their end, and said that so far as they were concerned they could sign both.

Let's take the emotive names out of things. New Zealand wants a FTA with Samoa and Fiji. Samoa says it's fine with us having both. Fiji says we can have one with them, or one with Samoa. Clearly in that case Samoa is unreasonably blocking out agreement with Fiji by saying... they're fine with it? Haha no, it's Fiji blocking it themselves.

[for the more directly relevant, up until 2014 New Zealand was looking to join the Russian free trade bloc itself, while still negotiating TPP etc]

Edited May 6, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

26 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

No.

They don't have an issue with the EU for three reasons. (1) It's not very effective (2) they'd actually like an EU army, as that weakens NATO and (3) Ukraine is not getting into the EU anyway. 45 million extra people whose country has a GDP/c 60% of Belarus's?

If nothing else the Ukrainian agricultural sector alone would bankrupt the CAP (or whatever they're calling it now).

Sorry, you are wrong, if they would have no issue with EU, they would not pay their hybrid armies and Trojan horses to weaken the democracy in European countries. And no it is not only exclusive to Eastern Europe and to NATO countries. There was a big scandal about Austrian Neonazis getting funded by Russia few years ago. I bet, same could be said with LePen and Salvini, if someone would bother to completely track the funding of their countries. And Brexit is another thing, where Russian trolls were to active, and after the referendum ended the way it ended, there was a big "party" in Kremlin.

As I said. The issue is not the EU itself, but the democracy in EU, and the fear of the Arab Spring/Orange and Maidan Revolutions/Belarus and Kazakh uprising to destroy his unlimited power.

A quote from one of the kanisatha's articles sums it pretty much. And not only for Ukraine in 2004 and 2014, but for Belarus in 2020 and Kazakhstan in 2021...

"It is more likely that the primary cause of the 2011-12 "turnaround" was, in fact, fear of a democratic upsurge in Russia itself, at a time when a similar push was taking place in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East. It was Putin's fear of "color revolutions" – a fear that had begun with Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" of 2004—that pushed him towards reinforcing both his authoritarianism and his opposition to the West. Secondly, and decisively, he saw that the "repolarization" he was seeking internationally earnt his country additional prestige—without provoking a reaction from America."

And that is the main reason, why he is funding populists and neonazis around Europe. He hopes to help the raise of authoritarian/nationalist political parties to power, so they would start getting at each throats, and slowly undermining the existence of EU, and retake back the influence which Moscow had in Soviet Era. And this way, he would be enjoying his time until 2036, where his current Russian constitution ends his career as a "Czar" of Russia...

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Sorry, you are wrong, if they would have no issue with EU, they would not pay their hybrid armies and Trojan horses to weaken the democracy in European countries. And no it is not only exclusive to Eastern Europe and to NATO countries. There was a big scandal about Austrian Neonazis getting funded by Russia few years ago. I bet, same could be said with LePen and Salvini, if someone would bother to completely track the funding of their countries. And Brexit is another thing, where Russian trolls were to active, and after the referendum ended the way it ended, there was a big "party" in Kremlin.

No, that's precisely why they have no significant issue with the EU. Because... it's easy to influence. And as above, they know there's zero actual chance of Ukraine joining. Whereas when Ukraine first talked about joining NATO they probably had to hose down the walls at the Pentagon after all the spontaneous 'celebrations'.

Quote

As I said. The issue is not the EU itself, but the democracy in EU..

Sigh. A few hours ago you were railing against Orban being an autocrat as well- someone who is, well, in the EU.

Quote

..the fear of the Arab Spring/Orange and Maidan Revolutions/Belarus and Kazakh uprising to destroy his unlimited power.

There's no serious suggestion that Putin would actually have lost an election at any time though, especially to 'pro western' candidates. Have fun with the actual alternatives, Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky, both far more revanchist than Putin, both of whom would almost certainly have outright invaded Ukraine in 2014 instead. If they'd been Yeltsin's successor they'd probably have invaded the Baltics to stop them joining NATO...

There were, of course, protests in Russia in 2012 as well. Some even, rather amusingly, tried labelling them as 'pro democracy'. Pro democracy people waving... Soviet and Russian Imperial flags? If you want there to be significant pro western electoral sentiment in Russia you need to build a time machine and go back to roughly 12 months in the 90s  before Yeltsin asterisked everything up- doing what the west told him to, to be fair to him, difficult as that is.

Otherwise;

(1) all attempts to influence us or our friends are bad, by bad people. You can tell, because they're trying to influence us. They do it because they're weak [if we want to feel better about ourselves] or strong [if we want to advocate for buying more shooty pew pews or instill fear]

(2) our attempts to influence others are good- and only for the benefit of others. We'd never use our influence for bad reasons. We're just nice like that, unlike them.

(3) ...why do some people think we're a bunch of judgemental narcissist hypocrites? Could we have done something to make them think that? No! They're... just victims of disinformation! Or maybe they've been paid!

Perfect, recent example: Solomon Islands signs defence agreement with China and the toys being ejected from cots in Canberra and Washington at above escape velocity, while wondering why they aren't getting fulsome support outside of the old ANZUS troika.

If you want the west to be the unequivocal good guys build that time machine, go back to <2000, and get NATO to offer Russia membership. Good luck though, the one thing an alliance needs absolutely is an enemy, and NATO policy has always been to make sure Russia stays that enemy.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

So Wali is back in Canada - https://www-lapresse-ca.translate.goog/actualites/2022-05-06/retour-du-tireur-d-elite-wali/la-guerre-c-est-une-deception-terrible.php?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

No, that's precisely why they have no significant issue with the EU. Because... it's easy to influence. And as above, they know there's zero actual chance of Ukraine joining. Whereas when Ukraine first talked about joining NATO they probably had to hose down the walls at the Pentagon after all the spontaneous 'celebrations'.

Sigh. A few hours ago you were railing against Orban being an autocrat as well- someone who is, well, in the EU.

There's no serious suggestion that Putin would actually have lost an election at any time though, especially to 'pro western' candidates. Have fun with the actual alternatives, Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky, both far more revanchist than Putin, both of whom would almost certainly have outright invaded Ukraine in 2014 instead. If they'd been Yeltsin's successor they'd probably have invaded the Baltics to stop them joining NATO...

There were, of course, protests in Russia in 2012 as well. Some even, rather amusingly, tried labelling them as 'pro democracy'. Pro democracy people waving... Soviet and Russian Imperial flags? If you want there to be significant pro western electoral sentiment in Russia you need to build a time machine and go back to roughly 12 months in the 90s  before Yeltsin asterisked everything up- doing what the west told him to, to be fair to him, difficult as that is.

Otherwise;

(1) all attempts to influence us or our friends are bad, by bad people. You can tell, because they're trying to influence us. They do it because they're weak [if we want to feel better about ourselves] or strong [if we want to advocate for buying more shooty pew pews or instill fear]

(2) our attempts to influence others are good- and only for the benefit of others. We'd never use our influence for bad reasons. We're just nice like that, unlike them.

(3) ...why do some people think we're a bunch of judgemental narcissist hypocrites? Could we have done something to make them think that? No! They're... just victims of disinformation! Or maybe they've been paid!

Perfect, recent example: Solomon Islands signs defence agreement with China and the toys being ejected from cots in Canberra and Washington at above escape velocity, while wondering why they aren't getting fulsome support outside of the old ANZUS troika.

If you want the west to be the unequivocal good guys build that time machine, go back to <2000, and get NATO to offer Russia membership. Good luck though, the one thing an alliance needs absolutely is an enemy, and NATO policy has always been to make sure Russia stays that enemy.

Putin definitely has an issue with the influence  and strength of the West but  its more about the principles of what Democracy and Capitalism represents. He considers it anathema because he blames Western ideology for  what happened to Russia after the fall of the USSR and the era of Yeltsin and the Oligarchs. Putin as you know was also hardcore KPG so ideologically  the West always use to be his enemy 

The EU represents a model of one of the best examples of Western ideology  due to its economic advantages but its more than that. Its a union of different countries and some of these countries use to be Soviet states so its a constant reminder to anyone of the failure of Communism and Soviet ideology. Put yourself in the shoes of Putin who remembers the era of the USSR, how do you think he feels when you basically have   every single East European country that couldnt wait to join the EU and many of them immediately joined NATO

Then look at the countries aligned to Russia in the region like Belarus and Kazakhstan and ask yourself if you were an independent observer who would you think offers a better political and economic choice to align with?

So of course Putin wants the EU to collapse because its a constant reminder of the failure of what he use to believe during the Cold War and nowadays its a reminder of a political and economic union that he cannot offer because he is an autocratic and Russia is not a Democracy 

An EU that dissolves is exactly what would suit him and  Russia would still be benefitting economically because EU countries would still buy energy from Russia which he believes  is enough to sustain the Russian economy

So Mamie is correct, their has been a constant and concerted effort from Russia to weaken and undermine the EU for the reasons I mentioned. And the worst development for Putin would be more and more countries, like Ukraine, wanting to join the EU because as Democracy gets closer and closer to the borders of Russia it leads to more questioning and criticism about his autocratic system of government and Russian citizens wanting a political change and a better overall quality of life which only Democracy offers 

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2022 by BruceVC

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

So Wali is back in Canada - https://www-lapresse-ca.translate.goog/actualites/2022-05-06/retour-du-tireur-d-elite-wali/la-guerre-c-est-une-deception-terrible.php?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Thats an interesting  read and it confirms what another US veteran said on CNN about the reality of foreign fighters going to Ukraine. Dont expect to be well resourced and understand this is not a " normal " war that many foreign fighters are use to 

I can understand how he mentions 

" After a few weeks in Ukrainian territory, some of the most experienced Western soldiers ended up being recruited by the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate, and would now participate in special operations behind enemy lines, according to one of them " 

Thats the perfect role of foreign fighters in Ukraine  I imagine ?

But I recognize and salute the fact he still went to Ukraine to fight against the onslaught of Putins War

Malc I will always respect someone who is prepared to die in the defense of the freedom of another country especially when they come from a nice, safe first world country like Canada. You have to admire that sort of belief and commitment to Democracy?

[Lexx]

I'm assuming ukraine tried to prevent war tourists from getting killed. Would look pretty bad if hundreds of volunteers started dying.

However, there's also lots of critical voices about the Wali guy. Apparently he is more words than actions or whatever, I have no idea, didn't really dived into this.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Lexx

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

So of course Putin wants the EU to collapse because its a constant reminder of the failure of what he use to believe during the Cold War and nowadays its a reminder of a political and economic union that he cannot offer because he is an autocratic and Russia is not a Democracy 

An EU that dissolves is exactly what would suit him and  Russia would still be benefitting economically because EU countries would still buy energy from Russia which he believes  is enough to sustain the Russian economy

Democracy and capitalism is unrelated. You can have one without the other. Russia is not communist today. Mind you, it sure isn't democratic either. Putin doesn't need to destabilize the EU. The Conservative Party in England did a much better job of that than Putin could ever have done. Orban and whatshisname in Poland are also causing a lot of friction from the inside. Yes, those former WP states who so looove the EU....

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Democracy and capitalism is unrelated. You can have one without the other. Russia is not communist today. Mind you, it sure isn't democratic either. Putin doesn't need to destabilize the EU. The Conservative Party in England did a much better job of that than Putin could ever have done. Orban and whatshisname in Poland are also causing a lot of friction from the inside. Yes, those former WP states who so looove the EU....

Yes I know Democracy and Capitalism is unrelated but sustainable Capitalism requires  governance and accountability which is part of any Constitutional Democracy 

 I am also aware Russia is not  a Communist country but it use to be and Putin comes from that era and so does his dislike and animosity towards the West

But as I mentioned Putin resents what Democracy represents, he is an autocrat and you cant recreate the old Soviet borders if countries are part of the EU

Just so Im clear, do you believe that Putin supports the EU and what it ideologically represents ?

 

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Just so Im clear, do you believe that Putin supports the EU and what it ideologically represents ?

I'm not sure how you got that impression? That Putin doesn't "fear" the EU as an institution is not the same as supporting it. I think the number of Western Europeans (the people, not the political elite) who fears or resent the EU is much bigger than the number of Russians resenting it. Give it enough time and it will either implode or become something that will get dissolved from within due to popular unrest (and referendums like the Danish Maastricht referendum(s) or the English Brexit referendum). It's a process which doesn't need much help from the outside and the tighter Germany and France tries to tie the ropes around other countries, the more people dislikes and distrusts it. As for democracy, the West had it's change to influence Russia and support a change towards democracy in 1991, but instead they looked at it an easy market to exploit as much as possible for as long as possible until a rather predictable counter reaction happened in the form of Putin (predictable as in it was either reverting to totalitarianism or a mobster led civil war with cataclysmic consequences)

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I'm not sure how you got that impression? That Putin doesn't "fear" the EU as an institution is not the same as supporting it. I think the number of Western Europeans (the people, not the political elite) who fears or resent the EU is much bigger than the number of Russians resenting it. Give it enough time and it will either implode or become something that will get dissolved from within due to popular unrest (and referendums like the Danish Maastricht referendum(s) or the English Brexit referendum). It's a process which doesn't need much help from the outside and the tighter Germany and France tries to tie the ropes around other countries, the more people dislikes and distrusts it. As for democracy, the West had it's change to influence Russia and support a change towards democracy in 1991, but instead they looked at it an easy market to exploit as much as possible for as long as possible until a rather predictable counter reaction happened in the form of Putin (predictable as in it was either reverting to totalitarianism or a mobster led civil war with cataclysmic consequences)

I dont make any assumptions anymore what people think about Putins War or their view on Putins role in making Russia a positive or negative member of the international community. Especially after reading 2133 post that one of the military objectives in the early stages of the invasion was not to occupy Kiev. Its clear we have very different views on the reality of the invasion  so I would rather  just ask

Your concern about the sustainability of the EU raises some interesting points but I wouldnt be too  concerned about those anymore because the invasion of Ukraine has united the EU in ways none of us could have predicted

I guess it takes a threat to overall security and quality of life to change things ?

 

[Gorth]

3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Your concern about the sustainability of the EU raises some interesting points but I wouldnt be too  concerned about those anymore because the invasion of Ukraine has united the EU in ways none of us could have predicted

I guess it takes a threat to overall security and quality of life to change things ?

 

I think you may be conflating a few things... EU is not something people identify themselves with. It doesn't enjoy popular support (unless you belong to the political or industrial elite). I don't know if you remember Black Isle's old parent company, Interplay? Their motto was 'By gamers for gamers'. Unlike that, EU was never a 'By the people for the people' thing. Hence why nobody really likes it (gross generalization). Europeans are happy to get together to support Ukrainians and help out where they can, but this more despite the EU than because of it.