Ukraine Conflict - Alle Dinge unterliegen Interpretation je nachdem, was Interpretation zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt herrscht, ist eine Funktion der Macht und nicht die Wahrheit

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

News about Russia's goals. Interesting if true. Can't read the document itself, so that's a bummer (for me).

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-fake-referendums-russia-draft-document/31828617.html

This is the same thing I mentioned previously from an article in a different source. Apparently, despite all their previous claims that they had no claims on any Ukrainian territory and only the Crimea because of "special circumstances" from the Soviet era, now the Russians are claiming that all territory in Ukraine that was part of "new Russia" during the 19th century Russian empire belongs to Russia. But the Russians are apparently running into an unforeseen obstacle: the local "Russian" separatist leaders in these areas are angry because what they wanted was independent statelets that they could rule over and exploit as warlords, and not simply to be used as pawns by Russia for Russia to take those lands.

[BruceVC]

44 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Well just today there was a major article in the Wall Street Journal (unfortunately behind a paywall) quoting several top Russian officials including our favorite Russian jokester, Lavrov, claiming Russia now intends to carry out a broader global war against the US and the West in retailiation for the US and the West aiding Ukraine in their not-war with Russia. Lots of blather from the Russians about how this is all now a plot by the West to keep Russia down blah blah blah.

Another meaningless threat from the failed outcomes of Putins War. The Russians never cease to tire with not taking responsibility for what they created

I wonder what this latest threat means, maybe an army of bears to attack the US in Alaska ?? 

[BruceVC]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/02/energy/germany-russia-oil-embargo/index.html

Another good  move by Germany in its opposition to Putins War, to quote from the link

"Germany can't be blackmailed, we know there is a dependency on natural gas from Russia, it is a reality. We need time to reduce this dependency," he told CNN. "This is the situation of the contracts and we do not change because Putin needs rubles for his war chest."

Germany has reduced its consumption of Russian gas to 35% of imports from 55% before the war in Ukraine, but says it needs to keep buying from Moscow at least until next year to avoid a deep recession"

Germany also agreed to send heavier military equipment to Ukraine. Hopefully this will end\reduce the unwarranted criticism towards Germanys response to the invasion of Ukraine 

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

My experience is that the Nordic countries tend to have plenty of decent politicians. Here's a good example: the former foreign and prime minister of Finland tweeting about the war. He makes excellent points in this 10-tweet thread. There's nothing groundbreaking about any of this, but it is good political discourse, nevertheless. I wonder what @kanisathathinks about it.

NB: In case anyone wants more information on this guy, it's good for you to know that the Wikipedia article concerning him is A. Stubb.

 

Some real amusing comments in there, as always is one or two people saying the Iraq invasion was a-ok

[rjshae]

There's evidence that the war is starting to push back into Russia now. As one sows...

Fire at Russian military site near Ukraine injures one

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Another meaningless threat from the failed outcomes of Putins War. The Russians never cease to tire with not taking responsibility for what they created

I wonder what this latest threat means, maybe an army of bears to attack the US in Alaska ?? 

Well it also goes to this notion that only the West cares about Russia's actions in Ukraine. That's just blatantly and demonstrably false. Furthermore, even in those small number of non-Western states that have taken a "soft" approach to their reactions, it is only the governments of those states and not the people. In India for example, as that one article I linked showed, the press and public opinion are very strongly for Ukraine and against Russia. But the government is reacting cautiously because of some strategic factors. Ditto in Indonesia, Brazil, etc. And the truth about China is that even they are only publicly standing with the Russians while privately expressing very different views to Russia including that they strongly support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. No country in the world has an incentive to not be supportive of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity lest their squishyness on those principles come back to personally haunt them in the future. And the outright comical stuff these Russian government officials, including Putin and Lavrov, keep saying only goes to cement the fact that they themselves know how bad things are for them and how completely isolated they are in the world. That's what explains the crazy stuff they spout. It's shear desperation + bitterness in the untenable global position they find themselves in these days.

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, kanisatha said:

This is the same thing I mentioned previously from an article in a different source. Apparently, despite all their previous claims that they had no claims on any Ukrainian territory and only the Crimea because of "special circumstances" from the Soviet era, now the Russians are claiming that all territory in Ukraine that was part of "new Russia" during the 19th century Russian empire belongs to Russia. But the Russians are apparently running into an unforeseen obstacle: the local "Russian" separatist leaders in these areas are angry because what they wanted was independent statelets that they could rule over and exploit as warlords, and not simply to be used as pawns by Russia for Russia to take those lands.

And that kind of explains, why there was a great purge in Luhansk People's Republic "government" week or two ago... They probably shown to much of discontent

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, kanisatha said:

Well it also goes to this notion that only the West cares about Russia's actions in Ukraine. That's just blatantly and demonstrably false. Furthermore, even in those small number of non-Western states that have taken a "soft" approach to their reactions, it is only the governments of those states and not the people. In India for example, as that one article I linked showed, the press and public opinion are very strongly for Ukraine and against Russia. But the government is reacting cautiously because of some strategic factors. Ditto in Indonesia, Brazil, etc. And the truth about China is that even they are only publicly standing with the Russians while privately expressing very different views to Russia including that they strongly support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. No country in the world has an incentive to not be supportive of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity lest their squishyness on those principles come back to personally haunt them in the future. And the outright comical stuff these Russian government officials, including Putin and Lavrov, keep saying only goes to cement the fact that they themselves know how bad things are for them and how completely isolated they are in the world. That's what explains the crazy stuff they spout. It's shear desperation + bitterness in the untenable global position they find themselves in these days.

I have been thinking about the  reason for  this constant gaslighting and embarrassing lies that come from Putin\Russia

Since Putin came to power its become normal for them to lie and basically deny any allegation of human rights abuses, war crimes and other actions. This includes

• war crimes in Chechnya and Syria 
• Assassinations of Russian dissidents throughout the world 
• the killing and arresting of journalists within Russia 
• poisoning of Navalny
• the rise of institutionalized bigotry where the Russia media and state ignore it
• the rise of a nationalistic Russian Orthodox Church that doesnt help things 
• state sponsored cheating\doping in most sports events 
• ensuring that no opposition political parties can campaign freely and fairly

This has been going on within Russia for the last 20 years and the Ruskies just deny  any of it is true and Russian apologists say things like " you cant trust Western media " yet they happily parrot the likes of RT and other similar Russian houses 

 

[kanisatha]

25 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

And that kind of explains, why there was a great purge in Luhansk People's Republic "government" week or two ago... They probably shown to much of discontent

Yes, correct. Some of these "leaders" have been willing to accept becomming Kadyrov-style puppets. But some of them have refused, and those individuals are being purged, at best, and in some cases being disappeared. What delicious comeuppance for them, eh?

[Malcador]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-01/hungary-would-veto-eu-sanctions-on-russian-energy-minister-says

Will win them friends.

[kanisatha]

Article on stuff happening on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-shadow-war-russian-border-attacks/31827632.html

US and allied lethal aid to Ukraine and impact on the battlefield:

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/as-battle-for-ukraine-enters-a-new-phase-so-does-lethal-us-aid/

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-04-30/western-artillery-surging-into-ukraine-will-reshape-war-with-russia,-analysts-say-5850651.html

[kanisatha]

Finland and Sweden exploring jointly applying for fast-track NATO membership:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/05/01/finland-and-sweden-intensify-talks-on-joint-nato-application/

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

And that kind of explains, why there was a great purge in Luhansk People's Republic "government" week or two ago... They probably shown to much of discontent

D/LPR leadership has never been stable. All the old leaders are literally dead except Strelkov/ Girkin (Givi, Motorola etc).

The obvious comparison to Kadyrov was never really appropriate, as he has actual leverage. The only potential Kadyrov type figure would have been if an oligarch like Kolomoisky had flipped, and for that they would have needed Mariupol in 2014.

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Germany also agreed to send heavier military equipment to Ukraine. Hopefully this will end\reduce the unwarranted criticism towards Germanys response to the invasion of Ukraine 

Haha no. People may make jokes about a lot of the equipment being sent going because it's cheaper to get the Russians to blow it up than to scrap it at home, but with Germany's 'heavy equipment' that seems to literally be the case. Their Gepards have been doing the proverbial sitting around in a shed for ten years. Or 12, depending on source.

I'm not particularly critical of Germany when it comes to Ukraine but the Gepards are... virtue signalling. Plus of course Germany is a proud country that can't be blackmailed and won't pay in rubles, their private companies will instead.

[Azdeus]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Finland and Sweden exploring jointly applying for fast-track NATO membership:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/05/01/finland-and-sweden-intensify-talks-on-joint-nato-application/

I honestly don't want to join NATO, even less when there is no acceptance for dissenting opinions about it, you're automagically an anti-American onahole for Russia and Putin.

[rjshae]

9 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

I honestly don't want to join NATO, even less when there is no acceptance for dissenting opinions about it, you're automagically an anti-American onahole for Russia and Putin.

I don't think that's true. Nobody would hold it against Sweden if they stayed neutral.

[Azdeus]

32 minutes ago, rjshae said:

I don't think that's true. Nobody would hold it against Sweden if they stayed neutral.

Oh, not internationally, but locally. There are no dissenting opinions being put forward in a serious manner, but alot of mainstream and social media are trying to make a rushed decision here. The fact that the vast majority of people in Sweden vote for political parties that have been firmly anti-NATO has been changing their tune, despite the populace actually voting them in. At the very least we need to have an informed vote about it, similar to joining the EU, but it's hard for people to build informed opinions if nay-sayers are actively being screamed down. I really look forward to having the US decide wether or not Sweden can leave NATO if joining means that the voters flock to an Anti-NATO option, and I'm really looking forward to joining such bastions of democracy like Hungary, Albania and Turkey.

Professor Linus Hagström was very critical of joining NATO back in 2015, still is, and he was raked for it.

[xzar_monty]

13 hours ago, kanisatha said:

This is the same thing I mentioned previously from an article in a different source. Apparently, despite all their previous claims that they had no claims on any Ukrainian territory and only the Crimea because of "special circumstances" from the Soviet era, now the Russians are claiming that all territory in Ukraine that was part of "new Russia" during the 19th century Russian empire belongs to Russia.

This, incidentally, is part of the Russian imperial thinking: all area that has ever been part of Russia belongs to Russia, as far as Russia is concerned. Reading the literature on this is quite interesting. For instance, the former Finnish president Mauno Koivisto (good pals with George Bush the elder) wrote a book called Venäjän idea (The Concept/Idea of Russia) in 2001. In it, he points out this same thing and goes on to add, "Thus, for them, we are also part of Russia." And that was in 2001: no illusions even then.

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Azdeus said:

Oh, not internationally, but locally. There are no dissenting opinions being put forward in a serious manner, but alot of mainstream and social media are trying to make a rushed decision here. The fact that the vast majority of people in Sweden vote for political parties that have been firmly anti-NATO has been changing their tune, despite the populace actually voting them in. At the very least we need to have an informed vote about it, similar to joining the EU, but it's hard for people to build informed opinions if nay-sayers are actively being screamed down. I really look forward to having the US decide wether or not Sweden can leave NATO if joining means that the voters flock to an Anti-NATO option, and I'm really looking forward to joining such bastions of democracy like Hungary, Albania and Turkey.

Professor Linus Hagström was very critical of joining NATO back in 2015, still is, and he was raked for it.

I appreciate your honesty about your reservations around joining NATO   but freedom and the quality of life we all enjoy comes with a price and Putins War means that price has be paid in our lifetimes. Some generations dont have to pay this price but many do if you think about our parents and grandparents during WW1&2 or the Cold War

Remember none of this would be happening if it wasnt for the arrogance and paranoia  of Putin deciding to create the old Soviets borders. But the moment he invaded  Ukraine everything changed forever in all our lives and it can never go back to the old days

Putin has demonstrated you can never trust Russia over anything, not energy supply or respecting sovereignty. And the only thing stopping Putin invading another European country is NATO and their doctrine of " an attack on one is an attack on all " and that is the only reason Sweden may be joining  NATO. 

If you had to go back before Putins War  I would have said to you " as much as I support NATO their is no reason Sweden needs to join NATO. Its unnecessary because the Cold War is over and its not like Russia would conceivably threaten Sweden "

But now NATO literally becomes the bulwark and insurance to a possible Russian invasion. You simply cannot live in a European country or country near Russia and ignore that

I read the link you posted and I agree we should still listen to other opinions and free speech still matters, Im just not sure what " the other side " to the invasion of Ukraine is and the fact that Putin is a unashamed liar and cannot be trusted?

In the article it mentions the EU view from some before Ukraine where it says " To prove beyond reasonable doubt that Russia is a great power, insulted Russian leaders might act even more as if the country were one "....the days of the world pandering to Russias insecurity and trying not to " insult " Putin\Russia is over

And its over because of the direct actions of Putins War...not the US 

But it was a good read and  made me realize some of the " anti-Western " sentiment that exists in the world for decisions made in the Cold War like Vietnam

So in closing, its important to have an informed opinion and difference of opinions but Sweden cannot take the position  of being neutral anymore. Thats why joining NATO is the best decision for overall security of your country

 

 

[xzar_monty]

9 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Since Putin came to power its become normal for them to lie and basically deny any allegation of human rights abuses, war crimes and other actions. This includes

A good list. One thing that is likely to remain a mystery is those apartment bombings (in 1999) that led to the war in Chechnya. Were they coordinated by security services to ensure Putin's rise to power? It would be very much like Putin to bomb his own citizens, but I suppose this is one where we don't know, and won't know.

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Article on stuff happening on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-shadow-war-russian-border-attacks/31827632.html

US and allied lethal aid to Ukraine and impact on the battlefield:

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/as-battle-for-ukraine-enters-a-new-phase-so-does-lethal-us-aid/

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-04-30/western-artillery-surging-into-ukraine-will-reshape-war-with-russia,-analysts-say-5850651.html

Interesting read around how artillery  will change  the nature of this  war and it explains this in summary with the quote below 

Russians forces are using artillery to extricate themselves from Ukrainian ambushes and inflict fatalities as well as to avoid having to go “into the teeth of these very high-end Western weapons,” including Javelin and NLAW anti-armor missiles, that already have destroyed some Russian units, Cranny-Evans said.

“They’re just going to sit back and let their long-range assets to do the work because they don’t have the manpower to waste,” he said.

 

[Malcador]

Seems like what artillery is for, really, not indicative of much. Especially from an army that loves artillery as much as the Russians do.

[bugarup]

28 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

A good list. One thing that is likely to remain a mystery is those apartment bombings (in 1999) that led to the war in Chechnya. Were they coordinated by security services to ensure Putin's rise to power? It would be very much like Putin to bomb his own citizens, but I suppose this is one where we don't know, and won't know.

Well there is Litvinenko's tea, this one dude in their parody of parliament getting indignant about bombings in town that would only bombed some days in the future, add Russia's respect for human lifeaaaaaahahaha, cannot even type ridiculous **** like this , I mean, KGB totally bombed those apartments. 

[xzar_monty]

27 minutes ago, bugarup said:

Well there is Litvinenko's tea, this one dude in their parody of parliament getting indignant about bombings in town that would only bombed some days in the future, add Russia's respect for human lifeaaaaaahahaha, cannot even type ridiculous **** like this , I mean, KGB totally bombed those apartments. 

That would be my guess, too, but I'd like to have it documented with some credibility. Probably not going to happen.

[pmp10]

More and more rumors are flying that Putin will announce mobilization on 9th of May.
Presumably among some political objectives like annexation of DPR / LPR and resolution of Kherson status.

[Azdeus]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

And the only thing stopping Putin invading another European country is NATO and their doctrine of " an attack on one is an attack on all " and that is the only reason Sweden may be joining  NATO. 

have an informed opinion and difference of opinions but Sweden cannot take the position  of being neutral anymore. Thats why joining NATO is the best decision for overall security of your country

The exact same promise already exists among EU countries, and each NATO country decides for itself how it would help Sweden incase of invasion, no one is obligated to send boots on the ground. But if we are in NATO we definetly become a target for strikes, even more so if we were to have nukes.

We're not neutral, we're unaligned, we are definetly taking stances left and right, and it's the only position that we actually can afford. Not to mention that we would be able to continue to be a mediator with other countries like we have been historically. If we are to have any kind of alliance it should be a Nordic one, among equals.