Ukraine Conflict - Das Himmelfahrtskommando

[Elerond]

22 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

So it happened. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/putin-signs-decree-ordering-gas-exports-be-halted-if-buyers-dont-pay-rubles

April's Fools tomorrow... Lets see what happens over weekend. 

Although they actually demand that buyers pay with euros and dollars to Gazprombank which then uses that money to buy rubles.

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Although they actually demand that buyers pay with euros and dollars to Gazprombank which then uses that money to buy rubles.

Hmm, i thought it was, they buy RUB at the bank and pay with them. Flow is similar but the FX risk is at a different party. 

[xzar_monty]

11 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Not sure what do you mean by that? He signs a decree each year around this date, as such is the law apparently. 

What I mean by that is that the Russian president is currently doing whatever the heck he wishes, no matter what the law says or doesn't say.

@Malcador: I was trying to make it absolutely clear that I wasn't being snarky. Apparently I failed. Apologies. The comment was made in good faith and with good intentions.

[Elerond]

15 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Hmm, i thought it was, they buy RUB at the bank and pay with them. Flow is similar but the FX risk is at a different party. 

Scheme is that buyers pay to Gazprombank , which then exchanges euros/dollars to rubles and puts them for buyer's ruble account where the payment is forwarder to seller (so usually Gazprom). Idea is that because contract prices are in euros/dollars, then if rubles value crashes during payment process which can take over week, buyers need to pay more.

EDIT: which is probably unacceptable for Germany and France at least, so there is quite big possibility that they stop buying gas from Russia tomorrow.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Elerond

[xzar_monty]

3 minutes ago, Elerond said:

EDIT: which is probably unacceptable for Germany and France at least, so there is quite big possibility that they stop buying gas from Russia tomorrow.

It is also my understanding that demanding to pay in rubles in a breach of contract from Russia's side. Which of course Russia doesn't give a damn about.

[kanisatha]

The Russia-China meeting declaring a "new" world order is utterly hilarious. The two ministers with a straight face try to tell the world their new world order is about respecting the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and "democratic relations" between states. Hahaha. What a joke. Apparently these principles only apply to states named Russia and China and *not* to states named Ukraine.

[Malcador]

Russians leaving Hostomel, so I guess that's it for the Kiev campaign. 

[xzar_monty]

22 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

The Russia-China meeting declaring a "new" world order is utterly hilarious. The two ministers with a straight face try to tell the world their new world order is about respecting the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and "democratic relations" between states. Hahaha. What a joke. Apparently these principles only apply to states named Russia and China and *not* to states named Ukraine.

The other day, Russia also tried to pass a notion (or whatever they're called) in the UN concerning the "humanitarian crisis" in Ukraine, completely disregarding what it was about or who caused it. That had to be some kind of world record, as far as cynicism is concerned. It didn't go down well.

[Darkpriest]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

It is also my understanding that demanding to pay in rubles in a breach of contract from Russia's side. Which of course Russia doesn't give a damn about.

Good luck substituting Russian gas with LPG on such a short notice. Even long term it would take months if not years to have proper infrastructure to trade, transfer, store and turn back the liquid into a gas form without killing its properties. The problem with such investments in EU is all the Green Agenda, which has exact opposite directives, i.e. not investing in such. 

Problem is, without gas and nuclear energy, there is no way to secure enough energy to satisfy all the needs in a consistent and stable manner. 

Let's also remember, that gas is only a tip of an iceberg for all the commodities, which include oil, aluminium or refined steel (check steel Rebar), nickle, fertilizers, etc. 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Darkpriest

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Good luck substituting Russian gas with LPG on such a short notice. Even long term it would take months if not years to have proper infrastructure to trade, transfer, store and turn back the liquid into a gas form without killing its properties. The problem with such investments in EU is all the Green Agenda, which has exact opposite directives, i.e. not investing in such. 

Problem is, without gas and nuclear energy, there is no way to secure enough energy to satisfy all the needs in a consistent and stable manner. 

Let's also remember, that gas is only a tip of an iceberg for all the commodities, which include oil, aluminium or refined steel (check Rebar steel), nickle, fertilizers, etc. 

The UK, Germany and France has said they wont pay in Rubles so Putin will more than likely cut them off as was expected. Germany has admitted this will hurt them but they have said its worth it 

But its not going to change the sanctions or the damage done to the Russian economy 

[kanisatha]

11 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

The other day, Russia also tried to pass a notion (or whatever they're called) in the UN concerning the "humanitarian crisis" in Ukraine, completely disregarding what it was about or who caused it. That had to be some kind of world record, as far as cynicism is concerned. It didn't go down well.

Yup. Was defeated 2 yes and 13 abstain. Then the France-Mexico alternative very explicitly labeling the humanitarian crisis the direct result of Russia's invasion passed in the GA with 140 yes votes.

[BruceVC]

40 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

The Russia-China meeting declaring a "new" world order is utterly hilarious. The two ministers with a straight face try to tell the world their new world order is about respecting the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and "democratic relations" between states. Hahaha. What a joke. Apparently these principles only apply to states named Russia and China and *not* to states named Ukraine.

Can you imagine the Russian\China new world and new " Democracy. While they not killing and arresting their citizens, bullying Australia, shutting down  freedom of speech, reeducating Uyghurs Muslims and banning Ramadan , invading sovereign countries and doing everything to ensure the principles of Democracy are eroded in their countries and territories  they are going to "create "  a new and better world and lead by example ...so noble and magnanimous  

[xzar_monty]

29 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Good luck substituting Russian gas with LPG on such a short notice.

There is no question it will hurt many Western countries. It will probably hurt Russia more, though, given how important the gas money is.

Russia is one of the biggest supplies of palladium in the world. Its gas supply is also very important. Other than that, there's not much. Anyone is free to correct me here.

[BruceVC]

6 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

There is no question it will hurt many Western countries. It will probably hurt Russia more, though, given how important the gas money is.

Russia is one of the biggest supplies of palladium in the world. Its gas supply is also very important. Other than that, there's not much. Anyone is free to correct me here.

Thats all true plus they export Nickle and wheat and other things . But we all realize we going to have higher commodity prices until Putins War is over 

[Darkpriest]

10 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

There is no question it will hurt many Western countries. It will probably hurt Russia more, though, given how important the gas money is.

Russia is one of the biggest supplies of palladium in the world. Its gas supply is also very important. Other than that, there's not much. Anyone is free to correct me here.

https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/which-countries-rely-on-russian-trade/

[xzar_monty]

The gas thing will be interesting. Russia will be in breach of contract if it doesn't accept euros (or dollars). Not that contracts matter at all to Russia.

It is currently creating a very interesting image for itself as a country. Something along the lines of, "Don't trust us in anything. We will disregard all of our commitments and signed deals and betray you whenever we can and/or like."

Edited March 31, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/britain-allies-send-more-lethal-aid-ukraine-uk-defence-minister-2022-03-31/

Will be interesting to see what gets sent.

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

There is no question it will hurt many Western countries. It will probably hurt Russia more, though, given how important the gas money is.

Russia is one of the biggest supplies of palladium in the world. Its gas supply is also very important. Other than that, there's not much. Anyone is free to correct me here.

Titanium, Nickel, and some other such materials, plus food and fertilizer.

[pmp10]

10 hours ago, Agiel said:

[...] I dearly hope this generosity carries over into allowing Ukraine into the EU (I'm sure there will be loads of German, Dutch, and French farmers who won't appreciate a sudden flood of cheap agricultural goods in the common market), providing Marshall Plan-levels of financial aid, and rebuilding their economy to pre-war levels. I'd go further and say that to do less would be the greatest geopolitical betrayal this side of the Yalta agreement. 

I'd really like to believe that (EU by spilled blood so to speak) but I have serious doubts this would be allowed.
We are talking a country poorer than Bulgaria, more corrupt than Romania, bigger than Poland and more conservative than Hungary.
And that was even before a destructive war.

 

In other war news overshadowed by the gas currency payments:
UK plans on providing Ukraine with artillery and APCs

Plenty of that available around eastern Europe so it's a bit odd to see UK test the waters with 'unfamiliar' military equipment.
But I suppose they are little affected by any retaliations.
Would also mean the first official hole in providing of 'defensive' support.

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by pmp10

[xzar_monty]

10 hours ago, Agiel said:

but I dearly hope this generosity carries over into allowing Ukraine into the EU

Sounds very unlikely. There are two or three countries wanting to become EU members, but they are lacking in several crucial ways. Ukraine is far more lacking than these countries.

[Mamoulian War]

@Darkpriest About the Gas and the Russia, today was very interesting program on our radio. There was an information that 70% of income for Russian gas is currently coming from EU, and that any Gas from West Siberia can be exported only to EU through Jamal/Yamal pipeline, because there was never build any pipelines from Siberia to anywhere in the World. So if I correctly understood it, if Russia will stop the Gas flow to EU, they will lose much more than EU. just because of infrastructure, which never existed. Also: Chinese rhethoric might say something different, but they are still quietly imposing some sanctions on Russia as well. https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/as-china-quietly-joins-sanctions-against-russia-xi-might-be-too-rational-to-risk-arming-putin-20220316-p5a54j.html

@Zoraptor A little bit of what is happening to Tatars after Crimea annexation. If you are interested in that topic, feel free to run these links through Google Translate
 

https://www.amnesty.sk/krym-od-anexie-uz-uplynul-rok-ti-co-ju-kritizovali-su-prenasledovani-umlciavani-a-celia-utokom/

https://cejsh.icm.edu.pl/cejsh/element/bwmeta1.element.desklight-3185910f-c682-4602-a991-3446c9469fac/c/PolRev2015-1pp31-63.pdf

Both in Slovak Language

Anyhow about the video, which is in breach of ToS, if you want to see an Ukrainian explanation as opposing view on Russian explanation, you can watch this video. Keep in mind, there might be a lot of Ukrainian propaganda involved as well, but I have not seen anyone to post any rebuttal of that video (excluding that anonymous tweet). Make your own conclusion. Video is under spoiler Tag:

Spoiler

 

And the another addition to the "How incompetent Russian army commanders can be" is the news about Russians digging trenches in Red Forest and running around there completely unprotected (also keep in mind, this is news from UNIAN, but IIRC some IATA personnel has previously claimed same things.)

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Mamoulian War
70% not 80%

[Mamoulian War]

Also if we count that Russians are leaving Kyiv, which is pretty doubtful, and all of the villages in the region there are liberated, due to their  withdrawal, during today, a lot of villages and towns were liberated in Kherson region. Which is also pretty big Russian fail, when thinking that just few days ago, they planned to do "referendum" to create people's republic of Kherson. (In total 10+ in the Kherson region and another 10+ in Kyiv and Chernihiv region not counting Bucha and Hostomel yet).

Edited March 31, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Lexx]

The 7 busses story from above doesn't really add up. I suck at explaining it, so as usual, I'll just link to the thoughts of someone else:

 

[Mamoulian War]

As I've said, I would not posted about it, if there were not reports about some IATA personnel talking about russians running around Red Forest few days ago.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Zoraptor]

4 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

Putin is walking very fine line with this. Anyone else poking Russia like they do would be outrage from their side. Not that long they done that to Turkey and their plane didn't returned. I feel like they soon will get another lesson.

That's really not a good example since the Russians made the Turks cry over that. Erdogan went from triumphantly ordering the shoot down personally to "sorry, it was all a scheme by Gulenists and I had nothing to do with it"- pretty close to a direct quote too- in a year.

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

In case you don't know btw (being from Canada), breach of airspace is something that the Soviet Union also used to do to its neighbours. In Europe at least, this is quite widely known, and perhaps you know it, too. But just in case.

Actual breach of airspace is very uncommon, except in a few areas of dispute (eg Kurils) or where the airspace situation is complicated- for NATO, almost all actual airspace breaches involve Estonia, and the St Petes/ Kalinigrad route.

What is usually labelled as intrusion in the press is either ignoring ADIZ or air traffic control areas. The Canadian ADIZ is regularly breached, but an ADIZ also has zero legal basis and is entirely self proclaimed- the go to example being Taiwan's which extends way over mainland China and over the entire city of Fuzhou (pop 4mn, so not a hamlet). Actual Canadian airspace otoh is very seldom breached.

12 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Anyhow about the video, which is in breach of ToS, if you want to see an Ukrainian explanation as opposing view on Russian explanation, you can watch this video. Keep in mind, there might be a lot of Ukrainian propaganda involved as well, but I have not seen anyone to post any rebuttal of that video (excluding that anonymous tweet). Make your own conclusion. Video is under spoiler Tag:

Any rebuttal involving the footage being faked can be dismissed out of hand. Even the BBC- whose coverage was belated and at best grudging- admitted that every expert they spoke to said the footage was not faked. And while they weaseled a lot on responsibility they were explicit that the footage showed people being genuinely shot. The claims for it being faked ultimately resolve to "but hollywood shows/ I'd expect something different" type stuff from non experts. Some of the injuries shown- but conveniently, not if you blur the images- are pretty much impossible to fake.

Quote

A little bit of what is happening to Tatars after Crimea annexation. If you are interested in that topic, feel free to run these links through Google Translate

I'd presume the Amnesty one is the "In the Dark" report.

I don't think anyone (well, except Russia presumably) disputes that there's repression of the Crimean Tartars. I was just ridiculing the claim that every Tartar had been forced from Crimea and deported to Siberia.