Ukraine Conflict - Das Himmelfahrtskommando

[bugarup]

That "article" is just blatant and unashamed propaganda piece. Azov for illustration, "Kiev coup of 2014", unironic lavrov citations, etc., couldn't be more official russian propaganda if it came from one of their state channels. 

[Darkpriest]

14 minutes ago, bugarup said:

That "article" is just blatant and unashamed propaganda piece. Azov for illustration, "Kiev coup of 2014", unironic lavrov citations, etc., couldn't be more official russian propaganda if it came from one of their state channels. 

I've said it's Russia leaning, but if you will come at that angle alone and fully dismiss it, you will miss out on some nuance and overarching context. 

Here you can read the report itself, from 2019

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

Then you can corroborate some thesis points from the article and check against the events that occured in the recent years, like having US coast guard or British vessels near Russia's Crimea base

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-patrol-boats-sent-beef-up-ukrainian-navy-near-black-sea-2021-11-20/

It's important to have different view angles to capture a whole picture, otherwise you will be a pawn of any propaganda. 

 

[bugarup]

Oh, the rand article itself is a good read, it's just the original article that's bull****. And reuters piece aged real well - "Russia says it has the right to move its troops anywhere it wants on its own territory and is not planning to attack anyone."

The reason I'm so dismissive in USA's alleged meddling in russian affairs is that USA used to be the key scapegoat that sovietistan used to blame for, well, anything and everything, and after a brief period of respite russia adapted the same MO almost unmodified. 

 

 

 

[xzar_monty]

48 minutes ago, bugarup said:

The reason I'm so dismissive in USA's alleged meddling in russian affairs is that USA used to be the key scapegoat that sovietistan used to blame for, well, anything and everything, and after a brief period of respite russia adapted the same MO almost unmodified.

Astonishingly, this attitude is fairly widespread among those leaning to the left. It can appear in people who are otherwise quite well informed and reasonable. The key tenet seems to be this: Whatever the United States is involved in cannot, by definition, be morally proper.

I am by no means a "fan" of the United States (a country so full of contradictions it just boggles the mind), but this kind of thinking is sheer idiocy. My take is that it stems from the all too human need for simplicity: life is so much easier if you accept facile generalizations, instead of trying to approach every situation on its own.

Interestingly, and kind of paradoxically, Vladimir Putin has recently demonstrated that whatever Russia says should never be trusted. There is no getting away from this: his betrayal and dishonesty has been so blatant and far-reaching. And since losing trust is extremely easy but regaining it is very hard, I suppose it'll take quite some time before Russia regains trust in international politics. Like, decades at least.

Btw, if you ask Russia, it really hasn't attacked anyone. Seriously. What do you mean war in Ukraine? What are you talking about? We are not bombing cities, we are rearranging architecture. We are not killing civilians, we are making alterations in their life expectancy.

Edited March 29, 2022 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

11 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

 

Btw, if you ask Russia, it really hasn't attacked anyone. Seriously. What do you mean war in Ukraine? What are you talking about? We are not bombing cities, we are rearranging architecture. We are not killing civilians, we are making alterations in their life expectancy.

This type of false narrative from Putin is so clearly spurious it almost makes you think " its an insult to the intelligence of anyone with an interest and access to free information that Putin could expect anyone to believe that " 

But this propaganda is aimed at those Russian people who can only watch the state controlled media so it doesnt need to be believable because it wont be heavily scrutinized by the intended audience . Its similar to that video you posted about the Russian solider getting lambasted for just wanting to recognize Russian military  deaths. But many Russians dont believe  a word from Putin but they still live in Russia so what can anyone really do when it comes to a autocratic state happy to use the full might of its security forces on its own citizens who disagree with the state?

The CCP are worse though with their public statements like " only 4.5 k people died in Wuhan from the virus in the beginning   " ...like anyone would believe that the first variant , where we had no knowledge of how it spreads, would only kill less than 5000 people. Tell that  to the people of NYC, Spain and Italy who went through that initial terrible carnage of Corona deaths due to the world not understanding much of Corona 

 

[Lexx]

Nuclear annihilation has been postponed for now. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-peskov-putin-nuclear-weapons-biden-1692753

[pmp10]

6 hours ago, rjshae said:

Hypothetically speaking, suppose the Ukraine and Russia come to terms with some treaty terms and transfer of territory. What is to prevent Russia from spending the next five years fixing their armed forces and then just repeating the invasion?

Ukraine won't give up on NATO without security guarantees. The rumors are that Germany, Turkey and Italy will be involved in some promise of actual military deployment. 

But frankly that crowd doesn't inspire much confidence.

[bugarup]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

I am by no means a "fan" of the United States (a country so full of contradictions it just boggles the mind), but this kind of thinking is sheer idiocy. My take is that it stems from the all too human need for simplicity: life is so much easier if you accept facile generalizations, instead of trying to approach every situation on its own.

It also serves quite a practical purpose - that is, avoiding accountability for your actions by passing blame onto someone else. Because no matter how thick the iron curtain is, people are curious animals and will eventually start asking questions like, "Why aren't we allow to travel abroad to witness oppression of Western proletariat by capitalist pigs themselves", or "Why capitalist pigs-made stuff is of better quality than ours?" or "Why common folk in former Warsaw pact countries and even those useless Baltics seem to live better than us in our resource rich land?" Or the most dangerous of them all, "Why our rulers and their entourage live lives rivalling that of Saudi oil sheikhs when everyone else is poor?" So just blame USA. And gays. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by bugarup

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Interestingly, and kind of paradoxically, Vladimir Putin has recently demonstrated that whatever Russia says should never be trusted. There is no getting away from this: his betrayal and dishonesty has been so blatant and far-reaching. And since losing trust is extremely easy but regaining it is very hard, I suppose it'll take quite some time

I'm not sure it would take that long. That is, as long as Putin is no longer there. A "palace coup" would shorten the time span considerably. I mentioned a few posts back, sometimes todays enemy is tomorrows friend. No, it wouldn't work with somebody like Navalny in power (a man that campaigned on shooting all Muslims on sight and non Slav's to be violently if necessary, deported from Holy Mother Russia, a Putin on steroids). But it does need to be someone with a strong popular backing. If Putin were to have an accident in a dark corridor in the Kremlin tonight, Russia would get plunged chaos and fracturing within a very short time and the clock would be set back to 1991. I.e. a nightmare scenario with oligarchs with their private mercenary armies and regional ex-army warlords, all with access to medium range and ICBM nukes.

 

A point where I think the west failed badly strategically, besides constantly marginalizing Russia and fanning the paranoia (especially during the 90's), is the lack of focused support for Putin alternatives. Viable ones that is (see above comment about Navalny).

[213374U]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Astonishingly, this attitude is fairly widespread among those leaning to the left. It can appear in people who are otherwise quite well informed and reasonable. The key tenet seems to be this: Whatever the United States is involved in cannot, by definition, be morally proper.

I am by no means a "fan" of the United States (a country so full of contradictions it just boggles the mind), but this kind of thinking is sheer idiocy. My take is that it stems from the all too human need for simplicity: life is so much easier if you accept facile generalizations, instead of trying to approach every situation on its own.

Please tell me you see the irony in raising an absolutely gigantic strawman to (mis)represent US critics, and in the immediately following paragraph describing how humans (not you, of course) have a need to accept facile generalizations rather than consider all aspects of complex situations.

Edited March 29, 2022 by 213374U

[BruceVC]

Good news, Russia said it will  " drastically reduce military activity " in Kiev 

Hopefully this bodes well for the end of Putins War 

Edited March 29, 2022 by BruceVC

[bugarup]

Russia also said it was not going to attack Ukraine among other things, so I'll believe it when I see it. 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Nuclear annihilation has been postponed for now. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-peskov-putin-nuclear-weapons-biden-1692753

This is an important story and a good news story despite all the suffering the Ukrainian people have endured 

Thanks for posting 

 

[Lexx]

Don't know yet, though. Russia also said they wouldn't invade and here we are now.

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

Please tell me you see the irony in raising an absolutely gigantic strawman to (mis)represent US critics, and in the immediately following paragraph describing how humans (not you, of course) have a need to accept facile generalizations rather than consider all aspects of complex situations.

By which conceivable logic are you able to conclude that I regard myself as other than human, or otherwise exempt from the group "humans"?

I must say I would expect at least a little more professional attitude from a forum moderator (not unrealistically, in my view).

Edited March 29, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Darkpriest]

Some Russian released vid. 

 

[Gorth]

7 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Don't know yet, though. Russia also said they wouldn't invade and here we are now.

Putin didn't think invading Ukraine was going to bite him in the ass (he might even have believed himself it wouldn't turn into a real war if Ukraine had acted like he expected). Starting a nuclear will. Even Putin will most likely realize, it means the end of any and all dreams of a USSR sized Russia if there is nothing left but radioactive rubble.

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

A point where I think the west failed badly strategically, besides constantly marginalizing Russia and fanning the paranoia (especially during the 90's), is the lack of focused support for Putin alternatives. Viable ones that is (see above comment about Navalny).

I think that to an extent this is true. But to the extent that it is true, it reveals a rather startling fact: Russia is in effect a developing country unable to fix its problems -- there is no "adult" or trustworthy government, legislation, court system, commercial system, (almost) anything. That's how dire its situation is.

Contrast this with the fact that when it comes to literature, painting, classical music or drama, Russia beats the United States hands down, and you get a pretty startling picture of the country. Of course the United States is a newcomer and Russia is a lot older, but still.

[Chilloutman]

is it russian released footage? I am not sure that 'Alahu Akbar!' will boost their reputation xD

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Don't know yet, though. Russia also said they wouldn't invade and here we are now.

Putin did lie its true but now Russia is in a different and much worse position than 2 months ago  where Putin miscalculated on several levels that include

• he underestimated the Ukrainian military resolve 
• he overestimated the Russian military effectiveness
• he didnt think NATO and the West would be as united or be able to implement the sanctions they have been able to do
• he underestimated the damage done to the Russian economy by the Western sanctions
• he doesnt have UN support or even the support of his " friend " China. The CCP is taking the warnings seriously from the US and it allies about not supporting Russia in certain ways 

So I can believe Putin and the Russian military want a way out and I can also believe this statement about not using nukes is sincere 

 

[Darkpriest]

4 hours ago, bugarup said:

Oh, the rand article itself is a good read, it's just the original article that's bull****. And reuters piece aged real well - "Russia says it has the right to move its troops anywhere it wants on its own territory and is not planning to attack anyone."

The reason I'm so dismissive in USA's alleged meddling in russian affairs is that USA used to be the key scapegoat that sovietistan used to blame for, well, anything and everything, and after a brief period of respite russia adapted the same MO almost unmodified. 

 

 

 

To be honest US has a history of accepting other nations blood sacrifices, so they can extend their own influence in the result. 

Lets be honest, USA can fight this war to the last Ukrainian. 

USA has had a long time plan of severing ties of EU from Russia and this event did that overnight, making EU a pariah vassal of USA. Now EU is fully dependend on USA, both economically and in terms of energy and other resources, and at the same time it will remain inferior to US in its economic capabilities and power projection. It will also need to deal with a real war refugee crisis, on top of muslim economic migrant crisis and syrian war refugee crisis. 

 

US is very happy with how this turned out. 2 birds with one Ukraine. They might get burnt though as the geo-pol security will drive Asian and South American countries to dedolarize as soon as possible. 

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

is it russian released footage? I am not sure that 'Alahu Akbar!' will boost their reputation xD

It is, chechens hey, they can claim they are more inclusive than US! 

[Chilloutman]

53 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Good news, Russia said it will  " drastically reduce military activity " in Kiev 

Hopefully this bodes well for the end of Putins War 

not a surprise that hey are moving away from field where they are getting their arse kicked the most xD

[xzar_monty]

6 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

US is very happy with how this turned out. 2 birds with one Ukraine.

It most certainly is not. The whole international scene is much more volatile and fragile now, and that in turn means various doomsday scenarios that weren't as obvious as recently as a few months ago, and the US won't be happy with that at all.

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

not a surprise that hey are moving away from field where they are getting their arse kicked the most xD

The military success of the Russian invasion has definitely gone against them in several areas but its still better to reach a complete ceasefire IMO than one more Ukrainian has to get killed