Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[xzar_monty]

33 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes I trust him on most things but not when he says " we didnt have parties during Covid "

Most things? That seems like astonishing naivety or ignorance to me, I'm sorry to have to say. He's an inveterate liar, which has been demonstrated many times over -- after all, remember how he got fired from a newspaper job for inventing quotes. And that was just the beginning.

[xzar_monty]

This is an absolute treasure. Boris Johnson blatantly lying about cameras, on camera. This is a classic.

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Let me guess, you don't want to criticize him for lying through his teeth about... well just about everything he says?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/14/deceit-boris-johnson-liar-prime-minister-joke-mendacity

"he prime minister’s unhappy relationship with the truth is longstanding and embedded in his character. Veracity is trumped by ego. Most of his recent catalogue of woes – Brexit promises, dodgy peerages, sleazy colleagues, flat decorations, lockdown parties – could have been soothed had Johnson simply come clean early on, appeared frank and apologised. He seems psychologically unable to disentangle falsity from half-truth. A life spent in bland denials and upmarket jokes has lent him a high-risk belief in his invulnerability. From each laughable lie he could, in one bound, leap free."

 

No, he's still not as bad as our own beloved, glorious and inspirational leader here down under, but he also had a professional career in playing loose and fast with the truth, before he turned politician. It's not for nothing he's known as "Scott from Marketing"

Gorthfuscious  I had  a feeling you were going to call me out on that...I was really expecting it   

But what I mean is I dont support politicians who lie around corruption or self-interest at the expense of the country but this was a harmless lie about people in Downing Street who all had to work together the whole time of the pandemic while the rest of us sat safely at home. Many people in his team got sick and Im sure some died because this was before vaccines in 2020

So let them  have  a party together, why do other people care unless you were also forced to work and can you tell me that no one from that group ever broke the rules ?

The UK media is always very harsh and critical of their politicians if things go even slightly wrong and you presented with an opportunity to  attack the current PM. Its the same as most of the media support around UK sports teams, if they lose 1-2 games in  a cricket, rugby or football match  the targeted team suddenly comes vilified and criticized from all sides 

[Darkpriest]

Energy chaos, developing. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/chaos-erupts-energy-markets-european-gas-jumps-60

 

Meanwhile, Bidens admin growing to reality of having forego environmental rhetoric? 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/white-house-quietly-calls-us-oil-companies-increase-production

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-surges-super-backwardation-after-opec-sticks-production-plan-shuns-bidens-demands

Edited March 2, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Sarex]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/russias-roscosmos-refusing-to-launch-oneweb-internet-satellites.html

[Elerond]

7 hours ago, Pidesco said:

That is very incomplete. It is missing Norway, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Brazil, almost the entirety of Africa.

Also Greece and UK are missing

[Elerond]

7 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Sure but wast majority is contracted long-term and increasing production will take years.
There are good reasons why fossil fuel imports were excluded from sanctions, and that is even before political backsliding begins. 

Considering that most oil producers don't produce oil even with half of their capacity, it doesn't take that long to increase oil production. Europe buys oil from Russia because they sold it cheap compared to others

[Pidesco]

6 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Also Greece

If olive oil and hair grease production count, I'm going to include Portugal, Spain and Italy too. 

 

 

 

Yes, I realize Greece produces actual crude oil.

[Chilloutman]

Hard to believe it but it seems like Ukraine is really winning this. Even Lavrov is now starting to back away a bit. Interesting

[Darkpriest]

43 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Hard to believe it but it seems like Ukraine is really winning this. Even Lavrov is now starting to back away a bit. Interesting

They've made a strategic mistake of attacking Ukraine mainland. As I've said some time ago, on 2nd or 3rd day, from reliable and well set sources. Ukraine was ready to drop the rest of Donbas and Lukhansk Oblast and some narrow land bridge to Crimea, if Russia would go in with the show of force there, at the cost of hard sanctions on Russians. (no one will officially admit that) However, the moment they went into major hubs and Ukraine proper, this became Nation's war, one which is un-winnable by Russians, unless they will flatten cities and start killing civilians on purpose in large numbers. 

Ukraine will have to make concessions, and most likely they will give up Crimea, and the rest of now ruined Donbas and Lukhansk Oblast including the port city of Mariupol, but they will not carve out a land bridge to Crimea easily on a deal, and they might want to get financial reparations from Belarus on the same deal or even outright sacrifice of Lukashenko by Russians (the latter never having a chance of happening unless Russian already have a different pupper for Belarus) . 

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Chilloutman]

If they are winning (UK), I am pretty sure they are not going to give up territory at all. On contrary they will demand that they get back Crimea - strategic importance of it is too high now

[Darkpriest]

1 minute ago, Chilloutman said:

If they are winning (UK), I am pretty sure they are not going to give up territory at all. On contrary they will demand that they get back Crimea - strategic importance of it is too high now

Russians will never give up on Crimea, they will sooner use nukes than drop Sevastopol naval base. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Chilloutman]

Is it tho? Now that Turkey showed that they are willing to close their access to middleterean sea anyway its quite useless for them in my opinion, not to mention its not their port the balck sea that Russia can have access to. Whole eastern part of sea is under Russian control

Edited March 2, 2022 by Chilloutman

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Considering that most oil producers don't produce oil even with half of their capacity, it doesn't take that long to increase oil production. Europe buys oil from Russia because they sold it cheap compared to others

If we are talking oil then you know OPEC quotas limit the supply.
And of course it was the cheapest supply in much of Europe, that is why it was bought and that is why sanctioning it would lead to economic pain.

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

Hard to believe it but it seems like Ukraine is really winning this. Even Lavrov is now starting to back away a bit. Interesting

Where are you getting this from? As far as I see the Russians are making steady progress.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Sarex

[Malcador]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60582327?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621fa3f40ce87e491a0edcce%26Ukrainian negotiators depart for Belarus%2C Russia claims%262022-03-02T17%3A14%3A45.396Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:651d15cc-d0ce-460e-88ed-573d7946aaeb&pinned_post_asset_id=621fa3f40ce87e491a0edcce&pinned_post_type=share

"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.

But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president.:"

Sort of a bit of a walk back.

[Chilloutman]

I don't see any other source. try google translate

 

https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/zahranicni/ukrajina-rusko-lavrov-bezpecnost-zelenskyj-primeri-jednani-invaze-valka-ukrajina.A220302_173606_zahranicni_jhr

[Darkpriest]

Putin has to make some propaganda claim of success, so Ukraine WILL have to make some concessions, and Putin cannot lose what he already has. 

I expect there will be a series of tlks how they recognize Zelensky as legitimate leade and people of Ukraine proved that for them it is their leader, however russian people still want to be a part of russia with their homes and land, etc. 

Some scapegoating, throwing a couple of generals and some intelligemce brass under the bus as traitors with ill intents, possibly replacing current leadership of Donbas and Lukhansk republics, throwing some of Lukashenkos assets in as reparations, etc. 

Putin has to have something to save face and be able to negotiate back access to world economy in a couple of years. 

Otherwise, he will sooner flatten eastern UA and rule over wasteland than sign something that will not let him have his propaganda win at home. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Sarex]

I don't think this will end until he gets guaranties that no NATO military will be present in Ukraine.

[Chilloutman]

19 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Putin has to make some propaganda claim of success, so Ukraine WILL have to make some concessions, and Putin cannot lose what he already has. 

I expect there will be a series of tlks how they recognize Zelensky as legitimate leade and people of Ukraine proved that for them it is their leader, however russian people still want to be a part of russia with their homes and land, etc. 

Some scapegoating, throwing a couple of generals and some intelligemce brass under the bus as traitors with ill intents, possibly replacing current leadership of Donbas and Lukhansk republics, throwing some of Lukashenkos assets in as reparations, etc. 

Putin has to have something to save face and be able to negotiate back access to world economy in a couple of years. 

Otherwise, he will sooner flatten eastern UA and rule over wasteland than sign something that will not let him have his propaganda win at home. 

only if he CAN win. Also how long he can fight there is a big question

[Elerond]

36 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

If we are talking oil then you know OPEC quotas limit the supply.
And of course it was the cheapest supply in much of Europe, that is why it was bought and that is why sanctioning it would lead to economic pain.

OPEC quotas exist to keep oil price high, but if it goes sky high they will increase it so that they don't lose markets to other oil producers or alternatives

It is logistics that is main reason why Europe is so relied on Russian gas and oil.

Economic pain can be compensated with new recovery fund or similar support program. But money doesn't increase capacity of Europe harbors and number of oil/gas tankers in world

[pmp10]

30 minutes ago, Sarex said:

I don't think this will end until he gets guaranties that no NATO military will be present in Ukraine.

He could likely get that and recognition of Crimea already.
But there is also the demand to demilitarize as well.

Ukrainian morale is running a little too high after first fighting and Zelensky couldn't implement that even if he wanted to.
Besides, the aim is very clear to do this again if Russia is displeased for whatever reason. 

38 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Economic pain can be compensated with new recovery fund or similar support program. 

Sure, but the money will eventually have to come from the average taxpayer.
Unless we are heading for an insurgency/cold war scenario you simply cannot justify that sacrifice long term.

[Zoraptor]

It will also be the average (well, median) tax payer who will freeze if gas runs out. Doesn't matter if the government is paying you 1000€ subsidy for gas heating if there isn't any. Guess at least many of the truly vulnerable have already died of covid which will keep deaths down (this is what trying to think like a politician does to you).

Every time there's been stimulus money in the past 20 years it's gone into the back pockets of the rich either wholesale or mostly, and who is going to profit off the increased gas prices and passing it along to consumers? Why mom and pop investors, of course, if you listen to politicians with massive numbers of shares in energy. Just another step on the road to completely overt neo-feudalism.

Or maybe just print more money so poor people can get a 1% wage increase with 5% inflation; a 4% pay cut.

3 hours ago, Elerond said:

Also Greece and UK are missing

Funnily enough the biggest producer missing apart from the US hasn't been mentioned by anyone: China. Much like the US, doesn't export much though.

Otherwise, Qatar, especially for LNG.

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Sure, but the money will eventually have to come from the average taxpayer.
Unless we are heading for an insurgency/cold war scenario you simply cannot justify that sacrifice long term.

It depends how you look at it, taxpayers money come from same place where all other money comes, from nothing.

European central bank will just create more euros that it will loan to member states.

Which can impact tax payers by causing inflation, which then will be answered by increasing interest rates, which will tie more money in banks, but as long as Europe is able to trade its goods and services its central banks can do their magic tricks with money that appears from nothing and keep economy running. Which of course does not mean that people don't feel some effects as it takes times to economy to balance itself.

[Darkpriest]

19 minutes ago, Elerond said:

It depends how you look at it, taxpayers money come from same place where all other money comes, from nothing.

European central bank will just create more euros that it will loan to member states.

Which can impact tax payers by causing inflation, which then will be answered by increasing interest rates, which will tie more money in banks, but as long as Europe is able to trade its goods and services its central banks can do their magic tricks with money that appears from nothing and keep economy running. Which of course does not mean that people don't feel some effects as it takes times to economy to balance itself.

Sure, if by some effects you mean recession or in extreme even depression, layoffs and mass unrest, yeah, then that is some effects.

 

You are also missing a piece, that rates are still at or near 0 and QE is still printing money at already highest inflation in 40years... 

There is no chance for printing more money, unless you desire to go full Weimar republic.

If you will raise rates, you will blow up ability to run country budgets as the burden of money interest on rolling debt will kill it, it will also crash stock markets as a lot of companies are neck deep in debt. You will also experience mass evictions of people unable to meet their mortgage payments. 

There is a reason why ECB and FED are so afraid of hiking rates and ending QE at faster pace. They know that rates beyond 2.5 will kill sovering debt and a lot of economy

Edited March 2, 2022 by Darkpriest