Coronavirus Goes Fourth

[rjshae]

17 hours ago, BruceVC said:

I hear you, we cannot guarantee anything definitive with the nature of a virus that can and does mutate

But if their is a chance it could be less harmful, like the Spanish Flu, then its still a positive thing overall 

I'm not expecting it to mutate to a less harmful form any time soon because the population groups doing most of the spreading are not being significantly impacted health-wise. There's little evolutionary pressure to get the virus to become less lethal.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, rjshae said:

I'm not expecting it to mutate to a less harmful form any time soon because the population groups doing most of the spreading are not being significantly impacted health-wise. There's little evolutionary pressure to get the virus to become less lethal.

You have raised an interesting point but I am not sure I understand it completely? Are you saying the Spanish Flu became less harmful because it was more deadly and killed more of its hosts which also would kill the virus. So by the Spanish  Flu evolving into something less harmful the virus logically is able to spread easier which is the main purpose for any virus....to replicate and survive ? 

[rjshae]

22 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

You have raised an interesting point but I am not sure I understand it completely? Are you saying the Spanish Flu became less harmful because it was more deadly and killed more of its hosts which also would kill the virus. So by the Spanish  Flu evolving into something less harmful the virus logically is able to spread easier which is the main purpose for any virus....to replicate and survive ? 

Yes, a host that dies before it can spread the virus is less beneficial, effectively creating a dead end. Over time the probabilities will favor evolution that maximizes transmission, creating a trade-off between replication rate and lethality.

[BruceVC]

59 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Yes, a host that dies before it can spread the virus is less beneficial, effectively creating a dead end. Over time the probabilities will favor evolution that maximizes transmission, creating a trade-off between replication rate and lethality.

That makes sense and I remember watching an interview with a Virologist who also had studied the history of viruses and their nature

He raised the same consideration about how sometimes viruses evolve to become less harmful but its only when the viruses are more deadly because its a survival mechanism for the virus  

[Boeroer]

Indeed

[rjshae]

10 hours ago, BruceVC said:

That makes sense and I remember watching an interview with a Virologist who also had studied the history of viruses and their nature

He raised the same consideration about how sometimes viruses evolve to become less harmful but its only when the viruses are more deadly because its a survival mechanism for the virus  

Perhaps the less lethal form maximizes entropy? Dunno.

[Boeroer]

94% fewer infections, 92% fewer severe course of disease in Isreal due to vaccinations. Awesome!

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/corona-news-am-montag-weltweit-mehr-als-2-5-millionen-virus-tote-gezaehlt-a-a5d28f2a-93c8-4a65-972b-47804bbb9125

[Gorth]

16 hours ago, Boeroer said:

94% fewer infections, 92% fewer severe course of disease in Isreal due to vaccinations. Awesome!

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/corona-news-am-montag-weltweit-mehr-als-2-5-millionen-virus-tote-gezaehlt-a-a5d28f2a-93c8-4a65-972b-47804bbb9125

Similar story (same subject, Israeli vaccination results), but for those who are less fluent in German

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56069460

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/experimental-bio-warfare-melbourne-anti-vax-protesters-condemn-covid-vaccine/ar-BB1dRCI9

Gorthfuscious, Im shocked by this anarchy and lawlessness on the streets of Melbourne, 15 people arrested ...what is the solution? Quicker and more arrests so that people listen to government ?

[Raithe]

[Darkpriest]

On 2/16/2021 at 12:53 AM, Gorth said:

Similar story (same subject, Israeli vaccination results), but for those who are less fluent in German

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56069460

 

As I understand, Israel is still very strict with their borders and quarantines, and so far had no other strain of the virus making appearance there, correct? 

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

As I understand, Israel is still very strict with their borders and quarantines, and so far had no other strain of the virus making appearance there, correct? 

At least they had. Not sure if it still applies at the time of writing though.

@BruceVCNo single country has a monopoly on morons. You'll find plenty in Australia too... remember, you get the government you deserve? Says a lot about Australians

[rjshae]

12 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

As I understand, Israel is still very strict with their borders and quarantines, and so far had no other strain of the virus making appearance there, correct? 

There's been at least one case:

Israeli who recovered from COVID-19 reinfected with South African strain

Are we entering a whack-a-mole contest on viral strains now?

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, rjshae said:

There's been at least one case:

Israeli who recovered from COVID-19 reinfected with South African strain

Are we entering a whack-a-mole contest on viral strains now?

The thing is you will see less mutations when their is less examples of the virus running rampant, so until we get the vaccine impact working like we want I cant see how any country will be spared having to deal with virus strains unless it closes all its borders and ensures their is very little spread within their respective country ?

[Darkpriest]

4 hours ago, rjshae said:

There's been at least one case:

Israeli who recovered from COVID-19 reinfected with South African strain

Are we entering a whack-a-mole contest on viral strains now?

Possibly, depends which version of corona will become the dominant now. 

[Boeroer]

Reinfection is not unheard of with other viruses, too. It's possible to fight off an infection but not have a long-lasting immunity. It's also possible that a vaccination doesn't work for an individual. As I said some time ago I don't respond well to Hepatitis A vaccinations and have to refresh it every few years in order to have sufficient immunity. Nobody knows why.  

[Zoraptor]

We do know why in the general sense, but we don't in the specific, for individuals. Usually it's because antibodies are built/ spliced together (in an unusual variable manner) but from set genetic blueprints as all proteins in our bodies are, and while that blueprint is large and varied if you're unlucky that blueprint may not contain the parts that are needed for a specific infection, and a lot of antibody generation is kind of random rather than directed so it takes more/less time to get to the right place for different people based, essentially, on luck. Probably the best analogy is having to build a specific shape with a set of lego where you can't directly observe and choose the pieces you have. If you need a 16x1 piece and don't have it then you're going to have to make do with two 8x1 joined together and hope that still works well enough, and you have to hope that the handful of pieces that you pull out of the bag actually contains the 16x1 relatively quickly. Then if you get infected again you have to remember how you made the right shape, and if it wasn't quite right or you can't build it quickly enough- or the pathogen has mutated enough for the shape needed to have changed- you can get infected again.

If you're really unlucky the shape for detection is found, but the shape for proper effect against the pathogen isn't, and then you can get an uncontrolled feedback loop (cytokine storm).

Since antibodies are spliced out of DNA in a unique and complicated manner it's difficult to analyse what if any combinations are missing for specific people because you can't simply read through the genes in phase as you'd (generally) do for other proteins.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

I have seen something interesting this week around the virus, for the first time in a TV series the directors have included the fact their is a pandemic. In both FBI and FBI: Most Wanted the characters wear masks and you see people wearing masks 

Nice one I thought to recognize Covid in this new world we living in 

[rjshae]

It occurs to me that one difference between the vaccines developed in the West and those made in China is that the former can undergo extensive field testing. China squashed the outbreak through draconian measures, so they might not have the infection numbers to detect whether the virus helps stop the spread, or probably even limit severe symptoms. They would be heavily dependent on animal testing.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, rjshae said:

It occurs to me that one difference between the vaccines developed in the West and those made in China is that the former can undergo extensive field testing. China squashed the outbreak through draconian measures, so they might not have the infection numbers to detect whether the virus helps stop the spread, or probably even limit severe symptoms. They would be heavily dependent on animal testing.

Once again you raise valid observations about a controversial topic , well around certain realities, in an objective and interesting way  which is the new role and real influence of China and what we can learn from them and what we can gain from them

People raise this and its a good debate. What I was reminded of during this virus is something that has always existed in China and always will but most of us forgot this as we havent had to experience it before in our dealings with China

Tne CCP will always control and never compromise on the objective of controlling the media within China and also they will never automictically share or provide data on certain globally shared ways countries share information. I dont think its necessarily malicious, the CCP remembers Tiananmen square and believes incorrectly that occurred when people are allowed to think and act for themselves outside the state directive 

Anyway so you will notice how they just dont share certain truths like the real carnage the virus caused in Wuhan ...the CCP claims only 5k people died in Wuhan 

This is how their society exists and it works for them but not the rest of us as  we dont live in China and freedom of speech is ingrained in our ways of life 

So yes  outcomes and understanding effective ways to prevent the virus has not come from China in a truly meaningful way, their vaccines for example have not all gone through the normal efficacy that the global companies vaccines have. This surprised me because I assumed China would have the first vaccines having gone through tests that would be deployed 

But their are delays with all this testing that the WHO and CDC would need to accept but this hasnt stopped China using vaccines internally and other countries desperate for vaccines also accepting them like Zimbabwe and Pakistan

But these vaccines fail the scrutiny of the global  scientific  community which means for any country only allowing properly tested vaccines they cannot and wont be used. We see this in SA, our public health sector has utterly mishandled the ordering of vaccines and we have massive shortages ....I wish our government could support the Chinese vaccines because then we could order millions of doses but we cant until they go through proper efficacy 

 Personally I believe the Chinese and Russian vaccines are effective but with less efficacy like maybe 55-60 %?

But in closing China wouldn't  share how the vaccines can lead to a real reduction in new infections and hospitalizations like we seeing in  Israel and the UK where their is open and transparent  data shared where applicable. 

Even if all the Chinese vaccines were tested properly they just wouldn't share this information on the outcome this had around  the virus spread and reinfection because as you mentioned they used draconian measures to stop the virus spreading and the vaccines had no real impact on the result

Yes it was effective for China but these measure would be  considered anathema and unconstitutional  to most of us and our legal systems....so their is no real point in thinking you can copy the CCP enforcement of a lockdown in basically every other country with the exception of NK 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, rjshae said:

It occurs to me that one difference between the vaccines developed in the West and those made in China is that the former can undergo extensive field testing. China squashed the outbreak through draconian measures, so they might not have the infection numbers to detect whether the virus helps stop the spread, or probably even limit severe symptoms. They would be heavily dependent on animal testing.

They do their 'live' testing in other countries, eg Brazil for sinopharm. Their approach is also the most traditional one- attenuated/ dead virus- so does not require extensive development, and at least in theory they can do side effect based tests with or without the virus being present, it's only the efficacy tests that are difficult to do (and hence farmed out elsewhere).

[InsaneCommander]

On 2/27/2021 at 5:13 PM, Zoraptor said:

They do their 'live' testing in other countries, eg Brazil for sinopharm. Their approach is also the most traditional one- attenuated/ dead virus- so does not require extensive development, and at least in theory they can do side effect based tests with or without the virus being present, it's only the efficacy tests that are difficult to do (and hence farmed out elsewhere).

The funny thing here in Brazil is that for all the drama from anti-vaxxers, now all I see is people impatient because the vaccination is going slowly. We are still doing it for people 80-85 years old.

So either the anti-vaxxers are quiet now or they found out how to use their brains. The second option seems unlikely.

[Gfted1]

New COVID-19 Strain 'P.1' Can Re-Infect People Who Already Recovered. 

Welcome to your new terror cycle.  

[Zoraptor]

That's the 'Brazilian' variant for anyone just reading the headline and wondering.

Readily able to reinfect and rendering vaccines ineffective would be a real concern, if it's somewhat increased reinfection and somewhat decreased vaccine effectiveness that would be more or less as expected. There's clearly some ability to reinfect among all variants, since the earliest confirmed reinfection was mid last year well before the Brazilian variant was isolated.

[Zoraptor]

SARS-CoV-2 confirmed to directly attack cardiac muscle.

Myocarditis (heart inflammation) is one of the major 'long covid' contributors and may be deadly by itself due to arrhythmia and other indirect effects.