The Political Thread - Hobbes Edition

[ktchong]

Kyrsten Sinema will win the Arizona Senate seat.   She has been pulling further and further ahead of her Republican opponent.  At this point, there are not  enough uncounted votes left for the Republican candidate to turn the tide: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416033-dem-sinema-widens-lead-over-mcsally-in-arizona-senate-race

 

Even Trump knows Sinemia has won.  Which is why he was raging on Twitter, claiming voter fraud and  demanding a new election in Arizona: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060993836984324096

 

So that is minus one for Republicans' gains in the Senate.

Edited November 10, 2018 by ktchong

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Funny, but I'm not really sure how a few months would really help you plan for a massive step up in living expenses. I mean, other than applying for a loan.

And there was always a chance she would lose the election, which would mean that she'd be going into debt for something she wouldn't use. Of all the complaints this is probably one of the dumbest.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

 

 

That's a scary thought. As much of a dumpster fire that Trump is, Pence is a bible thumping wackadoo that we need to keep far, far, far from power.

Sold. I think some groups would benefit greatly from having some good old fashioned Catholic love poured on them for a while.

 

Such as.... white supremacists? Heh.

 

Probably pedophilia tbh.

[smjjames]

Kyrsten Sinema will win the Arizona Senate seat.   She has been pulling further and further ahead of her Republican opponent.  At this point, there are not  enough uncounted votes left for the Republican candidate to turn the tide: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416033-dem-sinema-widens-lead-over-mcsally-in-arizona-senate-race

 

Even Trump knows Sinemia has won.  Which is why he was raging on Twitter, claiming voter fraud and  demanding a new election in Arizona: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060993836984324096

 

So that is minus one for Republicans' gains in the Senate.

 

It wouldn't actually have added to the gains anyway because they'd be replacing a Republican with a Republican (although completely different flavors of Republican) otherwise. It does however, subtract from the gain that they've already gotten.

 

However, it can't be called yet because they're still counting and as said on politico https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/sinema-mcsally-arizona-senate-race-982562 , it could still go either way.

 

Also, this is rich (from the previously linked article): "Republicans filed a lawsuit to halt a practice in two counties where officials were checking signatures on early mail ballots that did not match voter files. Arizona GOP chairman Jonathan Lines and Sen. Jon Kyl both accused Democrats of potentially disenfranchising rural voters because officials only in Maricopa County and Pima County — home to Tucson — were checking the signatures."

 

If they're going to complain about others using the same tactics they use, maybe they should stop doing it on their side? Yes, I know hypocrisy abounds, but hey, do onto others as you would have others do onto you....

Edited November 10, 2018 by smjjames

[ktchong]

Kyrsten Sinema was a Green Party candidate before joining Democrats, and gay.  She is a Blue Dog, which means she is liberal on social issue but "conservative" on economic issues such as trade.  i.e., She supports free trade and immigration, neither of which is a Republican position under Trump. 

 

Given the radical departure from free trade and immigration, Republicans will NOT be able to reserve course and return to their old positions after Trump is gone.   They will certainly try, but people will most certainly be cynical and reject the opportunistic reversal.  The entire Republican party has bent their knees to Trump and abandoned their (fake) positions on free trade and immigration, and Trump has revealed them for who they really are.  There is no turning back for Republicans - certainly not for any current Republicans.  People will ask, "if you really believe in those things, why didn't you stand up to Trump when he was against trade, against immigration?  What kind of farce and hypocrite are you to think you can just change your position and then for us to believe you are sincere and real?  GTFO." 

 

The way I see it: Trump has really won at all cost - he has destroyed the Republican party to win.  When he is gone, the Republican party will be in a shamble and impossible position to advance or reverse.

 

 

So no, it's not "replacing a Republican with a Republican."  It's replacing a Republican with a Democrat.

Edited November 10, 2018 by ktchong

[smjjames]

McSally is the Republican I'm referring to.... I said they'd be replacing a Republican with a Republican otherwise.

[ktchong]

So Sinema's victory is flipping a Republican seat.  As I said, minus one for the overall Republican's gains in the Senate.

 

Three and four seats gain is significant in a 100-seat Senate that is split about halfway.    One or two... not so much.

 

 

Everyone has been saying... there was no Blue Wave; this did not look like a Blue Wave.    Seriously?  Look at the bigger overall picture: 400 seats nationwide flipped  from Republicans to Democrats, in one day.  Republicans basically got clobbered at the state level (and in the House,) and this year's election map for state elections was actually favorable to Republicans, (compared to what's coming for Republicans in 2020 - when more Republicans than Democrats will be vulnerable at every level.)  

 

Frankly, Tuesday was not a wave.  It was a tsunami.   I am not sure why the whole media seems to be distracted by the federal elections and have missed that big picture of the overall results, but I think that could actually be a record for a number of nationwide seats flipped in one day.
 

Edited November 10, 2018 by ktchong

[Bartimaeus]

but more pertinently, why do you always write in that font

 

my eyes aren't that bad yet

Edited November 10, 2018 by Bartimaeus

[SonicMage117]

So Sinema's victory is flipping a Republican seat.  As I said, minus one for the overall Republican's gains in the Senate.

 

Three and four seats gain is significant in a 100-seat Senate that is split about halfway.    One or two... not so much.

 

 

Everyone has been saying... there was no Blue Wave; this did not look like a Blue Wave.    Seriously?  Look at the bigger overall picture: 400 seats nationwide flipped  from Republicans to Democrats, in one day.  Republicans basically got clobbered at the state level (and in the House,) and this year's election map for state elections was actually favorable to Republicans, (compared to what's coming for Republicans in 2020 - when more Republicans than Democrats will be vulnerable at every level.)  

 

Frankly, Tuesday was not a wave.  It was a tsunami.   I am not sure why the whole media seems to be distracted by the federal elections and have missed that big picture of the overall results, but I think that could actually be a record for a number of nationwide seats flipped in one day.

 

I think it's because Republicans took the senate. Democratics wanted to take over everything, like a todal wave, they wanted nothing to be left. Didn't quite accomplish what they wanted there.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[ShadySands]

They already had the Senate. They held the Senate and lost the House.

 

Though if you want to spin it better you can say the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate.

Edited November 10, 2018 by ShadySands

[Bartimaeus]

A big part of it was probably also the early margins in some of those Senate races. I was paying attention to it live and it looked really bad at first - it started with Donnelly in Indiana being down like 20 points for most of the race (ended up being 6 overall when all the cities finally got their votes counted much later - still significant, but not 20 points significant), then Florida started coming in and that looked really bad too (currently a margin of 0.2...), and then we started seeing Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Bredesen all getting absolutely smashed when those races were rated as lean Republican at worst. I figured Bredesen and Heitkamp would lose, but not that badly (and not Donnelly and McCaskill as well, who had much better rated races!), and then additionally Sinema and Tester seemingly losing by decent margins on top of that made it seem like it was going to be an absolute blowout - no way would the Democrats have any chance at controlling the senate for at least the next four years if those results held. Due to its laws about having to record every single vote before publicly submitting any results, Nevada started coming in significantly later than everyone else, and by that time, things had started to reverse themselves with some of the bigger precincts having started to submit their much bluer votes in other states. But by then, most of the headlines had already been written. For close races, election "night" is more like election "week" when you have to actually wait for the biggest precincts to submit their votes as well as start counting all the provisional and absentee ballots (which take much longer to confirm), as people in Arizona, Florida, and California have since discovered...conspiratorial whinging about mass amounts of Democratic "election fraud" notwithstanding.

 

47-53 is decent, though not great for Democrats in 2020 (certainly much better than the initial 45-55 or so it looked to be!)...and if it somehow magically becomes 48-52, it would seem pretty likely they'll control the Senate in 2020. Of course, two years is a long time...Democrats likely pray that they can take the presidency and at least eke out 50-50 control in the Senate come 2020, or they risk the Supreme Court having a conservative supermajority for the next couple of generations.

 

(e): words

Edited November 10, 2018 by Bartimaeus

[aluminiumtrioxid]

Frankly, Tuesday was not a wave.  It was a tsunami. 

 

Dude you keep harping on this and I can't help but notice that you sound exactly like Trump. "Look at all the WINNING we're doing, we have the BEST WAVE, just the BIGGEST EVER, because we are the party of REAL WINNERS, #MAGA". I appreciate your enthusiasm but it's unsightly.

[Guard Dog]

  zing!

[smjjames]

Florida recounts have begun for three races, Senate, Governor, and Agriculture Commissioner.

[Guard Dog]

F-----g Florida. Broward county again too. Of course that headline from the other day that they "found" a whole box of provisional ballots still to be counted. The elections was three days before? WTF do you mean you "found" them. You haven't even had enough time to lose them!  

[smjjames]

The one where a teacher found a box of provisional ballots at a school used as a polling location in Broward or the one at the Miami (or maybe it was Miami-Dade county, forget offhand) postal proccessing center? In both cases, there are some serious organizational errors that need to be resolved.

 

And yeah, theres a bunch of problems related to ballot design in Broward.

[Guard Dog]

The one where a teacher found a box of provisional ballots at a school used as a polling location in Broward or the one at the Miami (or maybe it was Miami-Dade county, forget offhand) postal proccessing center? In both cases, there are some serious organizational errors that need to be resolved.

 

And yeah, theres a bunch of problems related to ballot design in Broward.

Haven't see the Florida ballot in a long time. But if folks are too stupid to figure out how to connect a line with e pencil or find the polling place on their voters cards and the numerous mailings that start coming months before the elections we may be better off not actualizing their political preferences. 

 

I am kidding of course.  But it is healthy to be VERY suspicious of "found" ballots especially in counties that heavily favor one party. And most especially when the election supervisor of that country refuses to show them to anyone. Even as staunch a partisan as you would admit that stinks to high heaven. 

Edited November 10, 2018 by Guard Dog

[HoonDing]

when Texas turns blue next election none of this nonsense will even matter

[smjjames]

I really doubt that teacher in Broward had some sort of political agenda, but if they really are leaving boxes behind, then they have a problem. Whether it's because they lost track of them or because they intentionally left some boxes behind to be uncounted and 'found' later. That kind of voter fraud is something that ID cards won't ever fix.

 

Haven't heard anything myself about the Broward county election supervisor refusing to show ballots to anybody, but there's definetly something going on with it when you look at undervotes for Broward compared to other counties. 538 has a sample of the ballot from Broward https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-looks-weird-in-broward-county-heres-what-we-know-about-a-possible-florida-recount/ and the maps can be found on https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-election-broward-unusual-total-20181108-story.html and elsewhere.

 

 

when Texas turns blue next election none of this nonsense will even matter

 

Look at Georgia, lots of shady **** happening with the Republican party. Don't know whether there actually are similar happening with the Democrats, but both sides are definetly accusing each other.

Edited November 10, 2018 by smjjames

[ktchong]

It was a close race and even yesterday I thought that all hopes were lost... but Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) LOST!

 

OMG THANK YOU!  I VOTED AGAINST THAT TRUMP STOOGE AND RUSSIAN PUPPET!

 

My first vote as a resident in Orange County!   

 

Another minus one for Republicans in the House!

Edited November 10, 2018 by ktchong

[SonicMage117]

when Texas turns blue next election none of this nonsense will even matter

But Texas will never turn blue, people like their guns too much here

[Volourn]

"I really doubt that teacher in Broward had some sort of political agenda,"

 

I'd be shocked if she didn't. It is 2018, and she's a modern teacher. It is clear what side she is on.

[smjjames]

Oh, I'm sure 100% of professors and teachers out there are 100% liberal

 

 

 

when Texas turns blue next election none of this nonsense will even matter

But Texas will never turn blue, people like their guns too much here

 

 

True, it'd be more purple than blue. A Democrat running on a moderate platform could plausibly win there, however, I've also read that if Beto O'Rourke had a better ground organization (and possibly shifted to center a bit), he could have won.

[smjjames]

 

The one where a teacher found a box of provisional ballots at a school used as a polling location in Broward or the one at the Miami (or maybe it was Miami-Dade county, forget offhand) postal proccessing center? In both cases, there are some serious organizational errors that need to be resolved.

 

And yeah, theres a bunch of problems related to ballot design in Broward.

Haven't see the Florida ballot in a long time. But if folks are too stupid to figure out how to connect a line with e pencil or find the polling place on their voters cards and the numerous mailings that start coming months before the elections we may be better off not actualizing their political preferences. 

 

I am kidding of course.  But it is healthy to be VERY suspicious of "found" ballots especially in counties that heavily favor one party. And most especially when the election supervisor of that country refuses to show them to anyone. Even as staunch a partisan as you would admit that stinks to high heaven. 

 

 

I read this: https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/11/10/florida-officially-begins-machine-recount-in-three-statewide-races-8907663 and I see what you're talking about. On top of that, there are three reports of apparent boxes of ballots (including or in addition to the one I mentioned, I don't know) left behind in polling stations. The elections commissioner there also has a history (which I've read elsewhere as well, which is why I agree that theres something weird going on with Broward) of violating things and just being incompetent.

 

So, the tl;dr here is 'Broward county is a mess and the election commissioner there is responsible'.

 

It's also notable that Miami-Dade, which is larger and arguably even bluer than Broward, did theirs quickly and without problems. Not sure what is or was up with the Palm Beach county issues, but the main wtf attention is centered on Broward atm.

Edited November 10, 2018 by smjjames

[ktchong]

I bought a property in Orange County with the intention of renting it out, but my wife wanted us to move there - and, much to my dismay at one of my wife's rationales, so that both of us could vote against Dana Rohrabacher (and all future Republican candidates.)  Personally, I did not want to live in a Republican neighborhood of White people with whom I share no interests or values, but my wife talked me into moving there.

Anyway, we registered there and voted.  The result was close,  which meant our two votes actually mattered.   My wife was ecstatic. 

Edited November 11, 2018 by ktchong