Will this be the last of CRPGs WRTP now that Deadfire has flopped

[Katarack21]

 

Short answer: No.

 

Long answer: No, and this thread is based on a series of false assumptions with no evidence.

How is saying the game is number 35 on steam a false assumption with no evidence?

 

Dont you have steam ? Go have a look for youself.

 

Number 35 is clearly not an ideal situation to be in .

 

And all i said is the game is currently trending to not sell well which is pretty clear from the evidence.

 

 wish some people would take there fanboy hat off and look at the facts sometimes....jeeesus christ

 

You also said that Deadfire has "flopped", that "three expansions are not expansions they are the game split up into 4 parts", and are implying that possibly the entire RTwP market will collapse because of this one game.

 

A *series* of false assumptions, as I noted.

[hadiqa4444]

Unless you have some kind of insider information I don't think you know enough to confidently proclaim it a flop. 

No but i have been watching the steam charts.

 

The reason i have been watching the charts is becasuse i love BG2 style games and i was hoping that deadfire would do really well so they can make more of them.

 

It clearly isnt selling well. Very clearly not selling well.

[Katarack21]

 

Unless you have some kind of insider information I don't think you know enough to confidently proclaim it a flop. 

No but i have been watching the steam charts.

 

The reason i have been watching the charts is becasuse i love BG2 style games and i was hoping that deadfire would do really well so they can make more of them.

 

It clearly isnt selling well. Very clearly not selling well.

 

But is it going to make so little money that it won't recoup the money Obsidian spent to make it? Do you have any way of proving or disproving that assertion? Do you have sales charts, profit graphs, cost/benefit analysis?

 

Or are you just making assumptions?

Edited June 1, 2018 by Katarack21

[hadiqa4444]

 

 

Short answer: No.

 

Long answer: No, and this thread is based on a series of false assumptions with no evidence.

How is saying the game is number 35 on steam a false assumption with no evidence?

 

Dont you have steam ? Go have a look for youself.

 

Number 35 is clearly not an ideal situation to be in .

 

And all i said is the game is currently trending to not sell well which is pretty clear from the evidence.

 

 wish some people would take there fanboy hat off and look at the facts sometimes....jeeesus christ

 

You also said that Deadfire has "flopped", that "three expansions are not expansions they are the game split up into 4 parts", and are implying that possibly the entire RTwP market will collapse because of this one game.

 

A *series* of false assumptions, as I noted.

 

I gave my clear explanation on why i think the expansions are not real expansions and the steam charts reflect the truth in my statement.

 

why isnt deadfire selling then? why dont you chime in with some constuctive  input instead and get your head out of the sand

 

Glad you dont work at obsidian . People need to learn from criticism look at where they went wrong and not do it again in the future.

[hadiqa4444]

 

 

Unless you have some kind of insider information I don't think you know enough to confidently proclaim it a flop. 

No but i have been watching the steam charts.

 

The reason i have been watching the charts is becasuse i love BG2 style games and i was hoping that deadfire would do really well so they can make more of them.

 

It clearly isnt selling well. Very clearly not selling well.

 

But is it going to make so little money that it won't recoup the money Obsidian spent to make it? Do you have any way of proving or disproving that assertion? Do you have sales charts, profit graphs, cost/benefit analysis?

 

Or are you just making assumptions?

 

yeah man number 35 on the charts is my evidence im sick of saying it.

 

where is your evidence?

 

number 35 on the charts suggests the game is trending to not sell well, are you deaf?

[Katarack21]

 

 

 

Short answer: No.

 

Long answer: No, and this thread is based on a series of false assumptions with no evidence.

How is saying the game is number 35 on steam a false assumption with no evidence?

 

Dont you have steam ? Go have a look for youself.

 

Number 35 is clearly not an ideal situation to be in .

 

And all i said is the game is currently trending to not sell well which is pretty clear from the evidence.

 

 wish some people would take there fanboy hat off and look at the facts sometimes....jeeesus christ

 

You also said that Deadfire has "flopped", that "three expansions are not expansions they are the game split up into 4 parts", and are implying that possibly the entire RTwP market will collapse because of this one game.

 

A *series* of false assumptions, as I noted.

 

I gave my clear explanation on why i think the expansions are not real expansions and the steam charts reflect the truth in my statement.

 

why isnt deadfire selling then? why dont you chime in with some constuctive  input instead and get your head out of the sand

 

Glad you dont work at obsidian . People need to learn from criticism look at where they went wrong and not do it again in the future.

 

Criticism needs to be constructive. Nothing you've said here is constructive, it's just you bitching about stuff that has no real meaning. You don't know how much money Deadfire is making; all you know is it's position in the Steam sales--which doesn't reflect all sales and doesn't tell you anything about how much money it's making.

 

You're "evidence" for the expansions not being real expansions boils down to "Well they weren't released all at once", which is a meaningless statement that doesn't provide any evidence for the baseless assertion that they were cut-up and being released separately to increase profit.

 

Literally nothing that you've said is evidence of anything, at all, in any way. It's just you looking at stuff and making assumptions based on half-assed knowledge and pre-determined thoughts.

 

And then pretending like it's some kind of deep, constructive, important criticism that Obsidian needs to take note of to save their business.

 

I'm quite sure Feargus has all the actual data he needs to make these calls, and you're biased uninformed forum post doesn't help him at all.

[IndiraLightfoot]

 

 

Short answer: No.

 

Long answer: No, and this thread is based on a series of false assumptions with no evidence.

How is saying the game is number 35 on steam a false assumption with no evidence?

 

 

I'll use your own logic and point out that the basic version is number 5 and Obsidian edition (which costs over $80) number 25 in GOG so it must have sold millions and is now  on it's way to being the most successful game ever.

Being "number 35" on Steam tells us absolutely nothing. How many copies did it sell this week and how many overall to this date? Does your numbers take into account every place it is been sold or just Steam? Start with that and let's continue from there.

 

This, and if we add the great investment and backer success over at Fig to this (like a humongous pre-ordering avalanche), it may be regarded and should be regarded as a huge success economically.

[JerekKruger]

... the steam charts reflect the truth in my statement.

As far as I understand it the Steam charts are not run by Steam and aren't particularly reliable since Steam changed the default privacy settings. Unless you've specifically set your privacy settings otherwise (I know I haven't), Steam charts cannot include your data in its charts.

 

In particular this change happened fairly recently (11th April of this year), so comparing to games that were released significantly before that (for example PoE) isn't valid.

 

why isnt deadfire selling then?

We don't know whether or not it is since, as a result of the aforementioned change in Steam's privacy settings, we don't have accurate data. Only Steam, Obsidian and Versus Evil have accurate numbers on Deadfire sales.

 

People need to learn from criticism look at where they went wrong and not do it again in the future.

And no doubt Obsidian are looking at the sales data for Deadfire (whatever it might be) and making decisions about the future accordingly.

[hadiqa4444]

 

... the steam charts reflect the truth in my statement.

As far as I understand it the Steam charts are not run by Steam and aren't particularly reliable since Steam changed the default privacy settings. Unless you've specifically set your privacy settings otherwise (I know I haven't), Steam charts cannot include your data in its charts.

 

In particular this change happened fairly recently (11th April of this year), so comparing to games that were released significantly before that (for example PoE) isn't valid.

 

why isnt deadfire selling then?

We don't know whether or not it is since, as a result of the aforementioned change in Steam's privacy settings, we don't have accurate data. Only Steam, Obsidian and Versus Evil have accurate numbers on Deadfire sales.

 

People need to learn from criticism look at where they went wrong and not do it again in the future.

And no doubt Obsidian are looking at the sales data for Deadfire (whatever it might be) and making decisions about the future accordingly.

 

your talking about steamspy.

 

Im talking about the steam top seller list

 

two different things

 

I am aware steamspy isnt working

[marimo]

 

Unless you have some kind of insider information I don't think you know enough to confidently proclaim it a flop. 

No but i have been watching the steam charts.

 

The reason i have been watching the charts is becasuse i love BG2 style games and i was hoping that deadfire would do really well so they can make more of them.

 

It clearly isnt selling well. Very clearly not selling well.

 

That's not very clear at all. It's certainly possible that it's not selling well, but you don't have enough information either way. Assuming it's accurate, the steam chart is a datapoint. One point of data isn't enough to estimate profit. 

[hadiqa4444]

 

 

 

 

Short answer: No.

 

Long answer: No, and this thread is based on a series of false assumptions with no evidence.

How is saying the game is number 35 on steam a false assumption with no evidence?

 

Dont you have steam ? Go have a look for youself.

 

Number 35 is clearly not an ideal situation to be in .

 

And all i said is the game is currently trending to not sell well which is pretty clear from the evidence.

 

 wish some people would take there fanboy hat off and look at the facts sometimes....jeeesus christ

 

You also said that Deadfire has "flopped", that "three expansions are not expansions they are the game split up into 4 parts", and are implying that possibly the entire RTwP market will collapse because of this one game.

 

A *series* of false assumptions, as I noted.

 

I gave my clear explanation on why i think the expansions are not real expansions and the steam charts reflect the truth in my statement.

 

why isnt deadfire selling then? why dont you chime in with some constuctive  input instead and get your head out of the sand

 

Glad you dont work at obsidian . People need to learn from criticism look at where they went wrong and not do it again in the future.

 

Criticism needs to be constructive. Nothing you've said here is constructive, it's just you bitching about stuff that has no real meaning. You don't know how much money Deadfire is making; all you know is it's position in the Steam sales--which doesn't reflect all sales and doesn't tell you anything about how much money it's making.

 

You're "evidence" for the expansions not being real expansions boils down to "Well they weren't released all at once", which is a meaningless statement that doesn't provide any evidence for the baseless assertion that they were cut-up and being released separately to increase profit.

 

Literally nothing that you've said is evidence of anything, at all, in any way. It's just you looking at stuff and making assumptions based on half-assed knowledge and pre-determined thoughts.

 

And then pretending like it's some kind of deep, constructive, important criticism that Obsidian needs to take note of to save their business.

 

I'm quite sure Feargus has all the actual data he needs to make these calls, and you're biased uninformed forum post doesn't help him at all.

 

wow i got a headache trying to read that

[hadiqa4444]

 

 

Unless you have some kind of insider information I don't think you know enough to confidently proclaim it a flop. 

No but i have been watching the steam charts.

 

The reason i have been watching the charts is becasuse i love BG2 style games and i was hoping that deadfire would do really well so they can make more of them.

 

It clearly isnt selling well. Very clearly not selling well.

 

That's not very clear at all. It's certainly possible that it's not selling well, but you don't have enough information either way. Assuming it's accurate, the steam chart is a datapoint. One point of data isn't enough to estimate profit. 

 

no but its pretty big indication

 

Steam is the biggest gaming platform in the world,

 

The majority of there sales will come from steam

[Yosharian]

 

How many people actually played the original BG2? It's a niche market.

 

I don't think it's the death of the genre at all.

 

But devs and fans alike need to be realistic about the audience for Infinity Engine-successor games.

 

Chasing the mainstream is a waste of time.

ahh BG2 sold 4 million copies from memory when it released.

 

Plus theres the enhanced editions and what copies have sold over the last 15 years.

 

Pobably well over 5 million 

 

 

so?

[Farsha]

yeah you make a really good point here.

 

 

 

They should have just left pillars alone and not introduced multi-classing, the boats and the new mechanics and just concentrated on making a bigger better game with a more immersive narrative

 

Come on multiclassing is best feature of the game period. They really nailed it, so many options and customization of your character now (POE lacked it)

World map travel is so so however & Ship combat is bad (both take too much real time, that would be better spend elswhere)

 

But reason Deadfire is not selling is not in game quality, it's a good game. I think it's a niche game. POE1 did sold lot more but many people bought it and hated it. They just bought it of a hype. Deadfire is not underperforming, it's POE that overperformed.

As for DOS:2 that game is not bettter than Deadfire, it's last act is terrible and it has no balance what so ever (Again most ppl never got so far so they would not know)

 

Obsidian needs to work on their advertisment and social media presence to sell more.

Edited June 1, 2018 by Farsha

[JerekKruger]

your talking about steamspy.

 

Im talking about the steam top seller list

 

two different things

 

I am aware steamspy isnt working

Then say "Steam top sellers list" and not "Steam Charts", since Steam Charts is a website that uses the same data mining technique that Steam Spy uses.

 

Okay so Deadfire currently sits at 71 on the top sellers list. What does this tell us? How is this list compiled, in particular: over what period of time are sales counted over?

 

Number 3 on that list is (as of me posting this) Just Cause 3 XL, a game from 2015 that is currently 85% off. The fact that this is placed so highly, together with the fact Deadfire jumps up and down so dramatically, strongly suggests the time scale for the list is short (past 24 hours?). If so the list doesn't say very much. In a few months time the first DLC for Deadfire will be released and Deadfire might go on a small sale (10% say) to promote it. If that happens and Deadfire jumps up to, say, 3rd place on the list would that suddenly make it a roaring success?

 

Again we don't have any useful information on Deadfire sales, though I can safely say terms like "flop" don't apply (hint: not everything has to be either a break out best seller or a flop, there is space in between).

[Stephen Unsworth-Mitchell]

Don't think Deadfires doing that badly it has its issues but lot of fixes will come and we have 3 DLCs to.

 

Word of mouth is always been biggest seller. I say that if obsidian do the fixes work with community then it keep selling. As long they work with coummunity sure lots of us will spread word and lot of us will back POE 3.

 

Game has its issues but also has its good points sea shanty's, Modwyr (got love sarcasm), Music is good, fact they listened and change things from first game, multiclassing  etc

 

Look at KOTOR 2 was bugged to hell need fan mods to finish what obsidian not allowed to but hell, one of best games ever.

 

So people can talk about sells but honestly game not go be number one for 21 weeks to be success. Constructive criticism is better then threads asking how sells are.

[IndiraLightfoot]

 

your talking about steamspy.

 

Im talking about the steam top seller list

 

two different things

 

I am aware steamspy isnt working

Then say "Steam top sellers list" and not "Steam Charts", since Steam Charts is a website that uses the same data mining technique that Steam Spy uses.

 

Okay so Deadfire currently sits at 71 on the top sellers list. What does this tell us? How is this list compiled, in particular: over what period of time are sales counted over?

 

Number 3 on that list is (as of me posting this) Just Cause 3 XL, a game from 2015 that is currently 85% off. The fact that this is placed so highly, together with the fact Deadfire jumps up and down so dramatically, strongly suggests the time scale for the list is short (past 24 hours?). If so the list doesn't say very much. In a few months time the first DLC for Deadfire will be released and Deadfire might go on a small sale (10% say) to promote it. If that happens and Deadfire jumps up to, say, 3rd place on the list would that suddenly make it a roaring success?

 

Again we don't have any useful information on Deadfire sales, though I can safely say terms like "flop" don't apply (hint: not everything has to be either a break out best seller or a flop, there is space in between).

 

Yeah. The measuring has a fast turnover rate, indeed. When launched, Deadfire was #1 on the topseller list, and #4 for several hours, and held nice positions for a few days. Still, I think the game did even better over at GoG.

[hadiqa4444]

 

your talking about steamspy.

 

Im talking about the steam top seller list

 

two different things

 

I am aware steamspy isnt working

Then say "Steam top sellers list" and not "Steam Charts", since Steam Charts is a website that uses the same data mining technique that Steam Spy uses.

 

Okay so Deadfire currently sits at 71 on the top sellers list. What does this tell us? How is this list compiled, in particular: over what period of time are sales counted over?

 

Number 3 on that list is (as of me posting this) Just Cause 3 XL, a game from 2015 that is currently 85% off. The fact that this is placed so highly, together with the fact Deadfire jumps up and down so dramatically, strongly suggests the time scale for the list is short (past 24 hours?). If so the list doesn't say very much. In a few months time the first DLC for Deadfire will be released and Deadfire might go on a small sale (10% say) to promote it. If that happens and Deadfire jumps up to, say, 3rd place on the list would that suddenly make it a roaring success?

 

Again we don't have any useful information on Deadfire sales, though I can safely say terms like "flop" don't apply (hint: not everything has to be either a break out best seller or a flop, there is space in between).

 

Ill say whatever i want fanboy

 

ive been following it on the steam charts ever scince it got released.

 

It has constantly been not high in the charts,

 

I have also been watching DOS2 on the charts, it has allways been very high on the charts

 

fanboy

[Ancelor]

question to everybody: what was the first POE's state upon release?

I played the game on version 3 and loved it but I hear it was a much different game when it got out.

I do hate companies releasing unfinished games but that's usually the industry overall.

My only hope is that a year after release the game is much more fleshed out/balanced

[Shadenuat]

There's half a dozen isometric party rpgs in the making right now. Some of them are more promising too. Obsidian doesn't matter, the genre is on the rise due to steam & gog and independent studios giving it a push.

[JerekKruger]

Ill say whatever i want fanboy

 

...

 

fanboy

 

You're the one who's been "following it on the steam charts ever scince it got released" because you "love BG2 style games" and were "hoping that deadfire would do really well so they can make more of them", but I'm the fanboy (even though I don't actually enjoy Deadfire currently and am not convinced I ever will)?

 

Projecting much?

[DMFan79]

I consider it a success. Obsidian managed to remain faithful to the BG spirit in spite of the huge addition of the ship management.

 

The game needs a lot of polishing, but it's perfectly working until the end without critical bugs.

 

Considering the game has been recently released and it will receive three DLCs, I feel we'll be getting a very nice jewel in the end.

[Osvir]

Of course it is niche. It's been niche from the beginning. Pillars of Eternity also had 30k at it's peak at the start. Deadfire had 22k at its peak start. The dip is expected. That we knew already from the Fig.

 

Pillars 1:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/obsidian/project-eternity

73,986 Backers

 

Deadfire:
https://www.fig.co/campaigns/deadfire
33,614 Backers

We already knew this.

Also:
Have you looked on GoG lately? It was on number 1 like all last week, and now on number 5. Still getting raving reviews, and will sell more along the lines of time. These are 100% cultural classic games imo and will definately be sold over many many years to come.

Big difference this time and last time was exposure (to my knowledge). Like, we had AngryJoe (review), TotalBiscuit (talked about it), everybody from Co-Optional pretty much (Well, Jesse Cox was invited to play), Felicia Day as well. Much more exposure in different Online News outlets. Names people know and IIRC a couple more. I'm not hanging out in the Twitch community and know hardly anything about them but there was some single dude doing Twitch streams about Deadfire? Waaaay less exposure. Or maybe there was a lot, I just didn't have enough free time to pay attention during this campaign (I have a full time job with a lot of resposibilities this time around ,comparatively with no job and way too much time during the Kickstarter ).

Realistically though, business people and numbers crunchers are right, it is a flop comparatively to Pillars 1. But, might very well be a success in profit.

Don't know how that functions in the video game industry, but I know that in many industries is that as long as there is profit revenue it is a success. Regardless if it sold more or less than a previous title. Other industries are harsher, as long as it isn't at least +0.00001% of previous revenue, it is a flop. Broad Example: Let's  say Pillars made +50% revenue, and Deadfire made +20% revenue, it would still be considered a success in the business side of things (Maybe not a success to make a third installment, but nonetheless a success for the company). As long as it isn't -0.00001% it's still a success.

Simpler example:
Obsidian Entertainment, 100$
Pillars of Eternity, +50$ equals 150$. An increase of +50%
Deadfire, +30$ equals 180$. An increase of +20%

Super simple example not taking in any expenses whatsoever.

From the gamers, consumers or players perspective though, then I don't think we will see an isometric Pillars of Eternity 3 for quite some time. I think we might see an aRPG or First Person RPG spawn from the IP next (There was some trailer where you see some pretty solid background and close ups of the Companion character models that looked really good. Made me feel like a third-person game might be developed next with the IP). Or a Beat-Em-Up game xD Fists of Eternity!!! (Or Rivals of Eternity, Eder vs Pallegina... a hooded evil Watcher character being final OP boss unlockable)

Would this cause isometric RTwP cRPGs to stop being made? Don't know and have no clue. Don't know how many are in development, don't know how many exist. Will it cause Pillars of Eternity 3 to do a hiatus time jump/skip? Probably. I don't want it to, but it probably will.

Pillars of Eternity is just one title, it is not "Pillars of Eternity == RTwP cRPGs". @OP: Your title would've been much better as "Will this be the last of Pillars of Eternity?" because that's pretty much what you are fishing for isn't it?

== EQUALS TO

Dog == Canine
Dog =/= Feline

Pillars of Eternity =/= RTwP cRPG-genre
Pillars of Eternity IS part of the RTwP cRPG-genre

See the difference?

TL;DR: Just uneducated speculation.

Edited June 1, 2018 by Osvir

[evilcat]

Have they sell enought coppies already? Or will they?

Since what matters is not possition on bestseller list, but money earny to cost of production.

PoE2 was probably cheaper to made than some EA titles, and even Witcher 3.

[rheingold]

Jeepers can we stop with the "fanboy" nonsense. Just because someone has a different point of view to yours doesn't mean he is a fanboy.

But name calling in arguments is frankly childish.

Regarding the sales I have no data, my feeling is that sales haven't been great but I don't actually have any figures either way. It's all speculation at this point.

Regarding the game, I am slightly disappointed...

Multi classing is pretty darn good. The world map is great. The factions are great. The open world approach has hurt the main story. And for me, the story is really important in a game. So it's a mixed bag with some excellent parts and some not so good.

 

I also don't think bugs or good/bad games are often the reason for sales. Some terrible games have sold exceptionally well. DOS 2 is a dogs breakfast - (with huge potential it must be said, but a dogs breakfast none the less.) Deadfire is a much better game, but probably won't reach the same sales. Not sure why, though it could have something to do with Larian just being better at marketing.