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Everything posted by Gromnir
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aoc recent tweeted and did interviews claiming how the progressive platform actual insulated democrats from failure. the chart she presented were misleading and failed pretty much every fact check site. also ignored how inconvenient fact that the overt medicare for all folks were not running in the contested elections 'cross the country. were obvious suicide for a democrat running in rural iowa to champion medicare for all, but the progressive platform were nevertheless ammunition for republicans running against rural iowa democrats. aoc tries to turn reality on its head. sorry you can't read all, but aoc has been extreme misleading... and if you haven't gone to fact check sites to see 4 pinocchios and pants on fire fact checks from the past year or less, then is 'cause you don't wanna look. and am not saying the progressive platform doesn't deserve a seat at the table or is bad for the party. all am saying is that aoc is willing to use bad and misleading facts because she believes there are, "a lot of people more concerned about being precisely, factually, and semantically correct than about being morally right." she is not such a person. aoc needs learn moral right and factual accurate is hardly mutual exclusive, and her legitimacy is undercut everytime she ignores facts or purposeful misleads in an effort to promote what she believes is moral right. HA! Good Fun!
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*sigh* if the election cannot be deemed legit until every hairbrained conspiracy theory, no matter how improbable, is proved impossible, then we will never have a resolution. we would never have a resolution... evar. as to aoc, we didn't need go back 2 years... a couple days. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/08/trailer-democrats-won-white-house-lost-myth-about-turnout/ Justice Democrats, the group founded after 2016 to elect Democrats such as Ocasio-Cortez, whipped together a chart of the wins and losses in key districts to argue that candidates who rejected Medicare-for-all, among other left-wing goals, did worse than those who didn't. “The swing-district Democrats who fell off the most from their 2018 results were more conservative than the candidates who outperformed their 2018 results,” said Justice Democrats spokesman Waleed Shahid. The chart was not convincing to many Democrats. It made calculations about results in New York, for example, that will be altered when absentee ballots are counted, and it counted Democrats who had co-sponsored left-wing bills as left-wing candidates; many, such as Maine's Jared Golden, had backed the legislation but rarely campaigned on it. aoc plays fast and loose with facts all the time. we went back two years 'cause she were honest 'bout what she were doing back then. HA! Good Fun!
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... ... prove it isn't possible? and folks wonder how the qanon silliness takes hold. as to aoc, she is almost as much o' a fact checking nightmare as is trump. Ocasio-Cortez: People More Concerned About Me Being "Factually Correct" Than "Morally Right" "If people want to really blow up one figure here or one word there, I would argue that they’re missing the forest for the trees. I think that there’s a lot of people more concerned about being precisely, factually, and semantically correct than about being morally right." yeah... no. HA! Good Fun!
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particular sneaky how they did in pennsylvania by allowing trump to improve his margin in philadelphia and pittsburgh but then actual went to red counties and reversed the trend. sure, trump still won almost all o' those red counties, but biden won pennsylvania by improving his losing margin in red counties. genius. if you cannot see how ridiculous you are being, am not sure what to say. legal standards does not embrace powerball odds. thank goodness. sure as hell not gonna delegitimize or holdup transfer o' power following democratic election 'cause o' such not quite impossible odds. HA! Good Fun!
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prove it isn't impossible? ... you are not suggesting such is the credible basis for challenging an election, are you? it sure isn't the basis for lawsuits. @HoonDing most o' the 300 were eventually tracked, but ~150k were delivered late... "In several swing states, late ballots will still be counted as long as they were postmarked by Election Day and received by Friday. They include Nevada, where 4,518 ballots arrived on Wednesday and 635 arrived Thursday, as well as North Carolina (2,958 on Wednesday and 835 on Thursday) and Pennsylvania (3,439 Wednesday and 1,459 Thursday). But states such as Arizona (864 Wednesday and 559 Thursday) and Georgia (853 Wednesday and 610 Thursday) don’t accept any ballots after Election Day." pennsylvania ballots received late is actual current being sequestered and may eventual be counted. +5k votes. 'cause o' the Supreme Court decision, any ballot received after election day is sequestered. is unlikely to affect the Presidential race, but could be vital for down ballot stuff. HA! Good Fun!
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trump is attempting to delegitimize votes in multiple states, which would force state legislatures and perhaps even Congress to decide who is the next President. each state won for biden makes it more difficult for trump to undermine the system. is gonna be new trump lawsuits filed daily from now until december 8, or perhaps even later. ... there is a case in georgia, which would affect 53 ballots. there is a case in pennsylvania, which would affect 600 ballots. there is a case in az which would affect election day voting in maricopa. there is a new case in michigan which would affect all o' wayne county or more than 800k votes. most trump campaign cases have been dismissed and the remaining options do not appear to be particular strong. however, one judge in say arizona or michigan could conceivably create enough uncertainty and delay so as to provide republican legislatures in those states an excuse to step in and invalidate the election. so what happens if he convinces judges in arizona, michigan and pennsylvania to delay just long enough... have people been watching trump these past four years? "he can't do that." "it's unconstitutional." "that would be illegal and no republican would support him if he went that far." am gonna once again remind @Guard Dog how he accused various news outlets o' fear mongering when they warned o' the possibility trump might contest the election. well? if you think biden winning +270 ec votes by such margins as to make recounts a non-issue is enough to settle the issue, you have not been paying attention for the past four years. messala is beaten, but he is gone use every last option, legal and otherwise, to remain President... and when it becomes obvious the Presidency is out of reach, he is gonna set fire to everything.
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pfizer is producing globally, not just for the US. recollection is there is two US manufacturing locations and one in belgium. am honest not certain what is the % breakdown on manufacturing. HA! Good Fun!
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very good news. safety data should be available at the end of the month. best case scenario is ~25 million individuals could receive the vaccine by the end of the year. @Guard Dog may be particularly pleased to hear that the pharmaceutical company which distanced itself from the fed and refused to take government money for research and development is the company with the most dramatic news o' initial success... which didn't stop the current administration for taking credit for the news. HA! Good Fun! ps perhaps ironic, but the spike in US cases actual sped up the timeline as requisite benchmarks depended on community spread infections reaching 94 cases out of X.
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the maricopa twitter is tending to post after everybody else on the planet found out news elsewhere, and is often... unenlightening. however the table which shows how nyt is posting results is useful. for az specific, if people are genuine curious, we recommend the following: https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html is a detailed breakdown o' votes remaining. having followed since the election, am able to conclude with some degree o' certainty that the numbers is at least slight overestimated. nevertheless, the current votes remaining to be counted is 76997, and that includes those 6202 ballots requiring curing. also, this guy, affiliated with abc 15 in az, is posting results from the az counties in real-time. the self-proclaimed "data guru" is providing numbers same or slight before nyt is posting and with detailed breakdowns. HA! Good Fun!
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fantastic day in az for biden, although is curious so few ballots were counted. the largest batch o' votes came from pinal county, which is extreme red and had the most outstanding ballots uncounted in obvious red counties. ~13k o' the 20k votes counted today came from pinal. maricopa, by comparison, which had 24k votes ready for tabulation midday yesterday, only released 7k, and those broke 55/44 biden/trump. trump gained 1658 on biden's lead today, cutting the overall margin to 16952. were an overestimation on curable ballots. is closer to 6k instead o' 12k. coming into today, trump needed 56-57% kinda numbers to pull ahead. now trump needs 59-60%. again, that is a simplification 'cause is the spread which actual matters, but am offering just for those looking at announced ballot dumps and wondering what it means. regardless, if trend o' today continues, which is not a good assumption to make, then biden wins by better than 10k. oh, and btw, az only has recount if margin is .1 or less. however, situation looked much different last night. one day changed things a fair bit, and at this snail pace o' counting, we could be waiting for tuesday (not counting the curable ballots) before we get everything counted. heck, a few more hours this eve could change the situation. late monday might be when we genuine know 'bout az. isn't necessary, but am hopeful home states o' john mccain and john lewis flip. also, the (frivolous) lawsuits from the trump campaign becomes effective moot if is such overwhelming ec numbers with which to contend. oh, and hospitalizations and death count from covid is rising dramatic... story didn't end nov 3 as trump predicted. we saw tapper at cnn lament the crowds in nyc, dc, atlanta and elsewhere. were not media silence on the issue as many claim. however, am hopeful biden makes a forceful announcement in the next day regarding the continuing dangers o' covid-19 and the importance o' social distancing. https://www.hiawathaworldonline.com/news/national/biden-aide-responds-to-crowds-celebrating-despite-virus/video_c4391e1a-28d3-51d1-8b68-e4643edd2cad.html at least the campaign is saying the right things, but this message needs to be communicated w/o equivocation. sure, the celebrations is mostly over, but the messaging needs be consistent if people are gonna take serious. HA! Good Fun! ps in the last couple minutes, biden's lead in az increased to 16985. +33 for biden. unfortunate, am having no idea how many votes were involved. could be 33 or 33000. pps it turns out there is a more practical reason the President is fighting the election results 60% of all money donated is going first to the trump election campaign account for debt retirement. "Other Trump fundraising pitches in recent days ask for help to “protect the integrity of this election” but lead to a donation page for Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” committee. The fine print on those solicitations says 60% of a contribution helps the campaign retire debt and 40% goes to the Republican National Committee." yet another trump scam and his supporters is only too happy to enable the soon to be former President. HA! Good Fun!
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video not available in this country. which speech? while am waiting, am gonna offer an alternative. is a speech from george w. bush delivered 'bout a week after 9/11. George W. Bush congratulates Joe Biden on winning White House, sending message to GOP about election’s outcome aside: @Hurlshot we watched snl last night for the first time in years, by accident. we were looking for a football game and happened to see the snl opening credits (missed the cold open.) we watched the dave chappelle monologue, and am glad we did. folks who stopped listening to your clip before they got to 14:31 did selves a genuine diservice. one more quick aside, am knowing we said young voters cannot be counted on for the next election. truth. however, am thinking with all the applause being showered on various groups for their effort to make the historic change in georgia and elsewhere possible, am seeing far less credit being given to young people. as much as Gromnir personal pokes fun at young people over a laundry list o' what we perceive as faults, regardless o' party affiliation, they came out and voted and as it turns out, their contribution to American democracy were pivotal. congratulations to young voters. you have our genuine and profound thanks.
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as an aside, if not for the fact pennsylvania makes all this moot, people would be going absolute crazy over what is happening in arizona. am thinking both ap and fox called az for biden and as we noted earlier in the thread, based on current numbers, we would bet trump wins. given how close is the numbers, is probable none o' us knows who won az 'til tuesday as a few election day ballots need be cured with a deadline o' tuesday. 12k votes? also, in case anybody is wondering, we did double check and the biggest remaining vote drop for az will indeed be tomorrow, but it will be at 3pm pacific. am assuming maricopa announces near 38k votes tomorrow afternoon. HA! Good Fun! ps is likely a majority o' the 12k is not cured and won't count, but...
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hmmm. 295 or 306 appear likely for the ec. georgia is trending up for biden and based on the kinda votes remaining, there is no reason to expect biden to lose more than 9k votes when is more likely he gains. 16 ec votes for georgia. 295 ec for biden if he wins georgia and pennsylvania and pennsylvania looks like a near forgone conclusion at this point. az however is a different matter. with ~100k votes remaining in az, trump is needing close a gap o' 18610 votes. for the remaining votes, trump needs average 56 or 57% as a few votes will necessarily go to a 3p candidate so is not as if when trump gets 56 then biden gets 44. this am, near 50k votes were announced by maricopa and the breakdown were 56.3% trump and 40.7% biden. ... maricopa should announce the results o' 'bout 38k votes tomorrow morning at 11am... or such would be what we would guess if tomorrow were not sunday. am not sure if their schedule is getting changed for sunday. if we were to bet $20 right now on who wins az, we would drop $20 for trump. if biden wins arizona pennsylvania and georgia, that gets him to 306. *shrug* HA! Good Fun!
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this one speaks to us for some peculiar reason... HA! Good Fun!
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we don't particular like trump, but there is some horrible landlords in maryland. as an aside, and for historical perspective on this auspicious day... charles curtis HA! Good Fun!
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our only issue with the nato flag is it reminds us o' the bonnie blue flag. HA! Good Fun!
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to be fair, this will be the first time since he were elected that the alternative facts approach failed trump. convincing his base that he actually won the election will not be enough to save trump. being a "counter-puncher" and fighting won't be enough to win an election even if trump is wrong. at the moment, trump is fighting math. am thinking next stage is blame others. sure, trump is current blaming democrats, but that is part o' the gaslighting effort. once all the lawsuits fail, trump will start blaming those in his more immediate orbit. and then he is gonna burn everything.
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am thinking with a President who does not appear to wanna concede, a global pandemic and widespread economic turmoil, the media will be able to find a few stories 'pon which to report. recall that no new stimulus were agreed 'pon by Congress before the election and fed money is running out and eviction moratoriums is ending. for +1/3 o' america, your observation will not be universal embraced as a sign o' hope. should be universal applause that what woulda' been deemed impossible 40 years past has come to pass. we are making progress. however, some will see as a thin veiled accusation o' white privilege. some will indeed see more as a condemnation o' +200 years o' US racism and oppression. polarized. your shared image will be an opportunity to dislike them more. biden has a tough job ahead o' him. HA! Good Fun!
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you may not realize, but gen xers are following the trend, and when you average out the millenials, you get more overall conservative than when they were younger. sure, america as a whole has become more polarized so expecting millenials to avoid such polarization would be unreasonable, but the overall trend is toward conservative. don't depend on a continued vital youth vote and assume they is gonna get more conservative. no real change since 1960. speaking o' not changing... songs from the 80s which work same today although they is 35-40 years removed from release. songs is older than most o' you posting. trump is the first President who genuine spoke to the working class americans in more than a generation but he channeled their fear and offered them fool's gold for their devotion. in spite of the situation becoming demonstrably worse for farmers and the rest o' working class americans under the trump regime, they worship him. is not what trump does, but what he says which is the source o' his appeal. bass ackwards. the nation is gonna continue to be divided as long as each party focuses on distilling their current constituencies. am conceding that as long as trump were in office, trying to reach working class americans were a doomed proposition-- waste of treasure and labor. that said, trump is gonna be busy trying to stay out o' prison these next few years, so am hopeful democrats make a serious effort to embrace those working class americans who is salvageable, 'cause is ez to ignore, but many such persons voted for obama and felt betrayed when their lot got worse during those eight years. the current degree o' polarization makes us wonder how much improvement is possible, but democrats need make dramatic changes quick or 2022 and 2024 is gonna be ugly. HA! Good Fun! ps the cheney observation is so clear missing the obvious point o' why democrats chose biden. a moderate democrat who could work with more moderate republicans were the goal. duh. am suspecting @ComradeMaster didn't pay attention to the last months o' the election. trump and fox news kept pretending as if bernie sanders were the 2020 democrat candidate. democrats chose biden in part 'cause he were somebody traditional republicans would have difficulty condemning so... duh.
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your observation is so 1960... 'cause democrats said the same thing after the kennedy election... and after obama. heck, the whole young republican movement started during the reagan years and then fizzled. young voters did indeed make the biggest difference for biden, 'cause while overall, latino voters stayed same as 2016 margins, and the black vote actual decreased for biden compared to 2016, young people voted this time. and perhaps sadly, as kids get older, they almost invariably become more conservative. won't be able to depend on the kids being so idealistic in a few years when the got mortgages o' their own and is no longer renting. an increased youth vote could be a trend, if stuff such as automatic vote registration (the thing which am suspecting made the biggest difference in georgia) continues and perhaps 'cause o' the new digital advertising focus. the biden campaign, in spite o' alternate reality/narrative from a few pro trumpers, were pretty barebones. kitchen sink thrown at trump? HA! the limited biden campaign were in part a reasonable reaction to covid, but depended on digital. lack o' boots on the ground possible explains why while biden maintained the overall 2016 latino margin, he got slobberknockered in the battleground counties o' florida and texas. Biden’s campaign is ‘suppressing the Hispanic vote’ in Florida, an internal letter claims credit goes to @Volourn for sharing the article we link... though o'course vol never read past the title. article shows just how poor managed and over distanced were the biden campaign in florida. the democrats did plenty o' tv and online ads w/o living people from target communities doing the more traditional campaign work covid and young voters decided the Presidential election, and covid ended being less important than most reasonable persons assumed it would be. and as we has noted previous, democrats need find a way to establish a connection with working class americans, which is gonna be tough 'cause those folks is religious zealots who follow the tenets o' trumpism as 'posed to a political party. trump said it were ok to be afraid o' blm and muslims. trump promised ez solutions to hard problems and then used deficit spending to svengali his way to convincing people that the economy were doing fantastic. trump made people who were afraid o' covid believe it were nothing one need fear. how is it even possible to get those folks to abandon their Faith? regardless, unless something dramatic occurs between today and december when electoral college convenes, "individual 1," is gonna be looking at a very busy next few years. am thinking many trumpers forget just how many criminal cases is on hold for no other reason than that trump is the President. even ignoring all the potential federal charges, is multiple state cases with prosecutors just waiting for the day when trump can no longer use the doj and excuses o' the Presidency to avoid sitting for interviews. am knowing people forget quick, but cohen went to prison 'cause o' payments he made on behalf o' "individual 1." most important result o' the election is no more william barr. that alone makes the results worth every effort. HA! Good Fun!
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is worrisome the software glitch exists, but there is a reason one county in mi were showing results o' zero for the last 1.5 days. the thing is, the glitch alone doesn't result in borked numbers. were also human error. from a detroit free press article early this am... and the reason nobody is making a big deal o' the error beyond fox... J. Alex Halderman, a professor of computer science and engineering at the University of Michigan and an expert on voting machines and security, said he is interested in getting more information about what happened. "It's plausibly human error, but if a simple screw-up could cause these problems, that sounds like a technical design flaw," Halderman said. "It's natural to wonder whether similar problems could have occurred in other jurisdictions that use the same machine. Fortunately, even if the county hadn't noticed, this would have been caught and corrected during Michigan's normal canvassing procedures, when they compare the results to the paper tapes from the machines." this woulda' already been noticed if other counties had a similar double-snafu, but is worth double-checking just to make absolute certain. regardless, is not the major issue being suggested by the trump campaign. surprise? HA! Good Fun!
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worse. he is saying they do not have the right to avoid being an unwilling publisher of of speech which the publisher knows or believes with a high degree o' uncertainty to be untrue or knowing false. and keep in mind, being a publisher does not insulate an individual from defamation. the standard for public issues and individuals is extreme high, but if you genuine know a lie is being uttered, you expose self to legal liability if you do not stop publishing the lie. if were a newspaper, am doubtful skarp_one would be confused. can't force the newspaper man to use his ink and paper and delivery services to publish a lie they do not believe. obvious, no? radio and tv creates a mental hurdles some folks cannot overcome. there is always gonna be conflicting personal liberty rights when there is a disagreement between citizens. is good that the US government is prohibited from deciding who has the superior speech save for extreme limited circumstances. HA! Good Fun!
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reversed timing. the free speech zones were set up in advance o' the protesters arriving. "got very physical" is kinda an odd description o' what happened and in any event, the free-speech areas were dismantled very quickly w/o even the need for a legal battle. time, place, manner restrictions on free speech were addressed by the Court in 1972 (police department of chicago v. mosley.) kinda intuitive that picketers outside o' a hospital may be restricted to certain times and areas. unfortunately, a few government agencies and actors has tried to use tpm limits to censor speech and such efforts almost universal fail. the bureau o' land management's free speech zones limiting protest to a small area o' a 1200 sq. mile area were patent ridiculous. the aclu were drooling at the chance to deliver a first amendment beatdown on the federal government for their temerity, but as already stated, the free speech zones were quick dismantled and the violence gd suggests were omnipresent was anything but. HA! Good Fun!
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alaska, florida and 26 other states resolve state elections involving multiple counties voting for same office by lot... we kid you not. state-by-state. our recollection is that new jersey is the only state with no provision for ties. HA! Good Fun! ps keep in mind the tie scenario counts as a state thing 'cause the state is actual choosing electoral college delegates who then vote for the President. pps am honest not recollecting what is the method georgia utilizes, but arizona uses lots. we mention 'cause those two states appear most likely to face a tie situation even if the odds is astronomical unlikely.
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HA! Good Fun!