Darkpriest

So far Russians aimed tactical infrastructure, like airfields, which is on the outskirts of the cities. No news on any casualties or direct assault on armed forces. No report on the exact number of strikes. This however is a really bad situation. This is not Afghanistan, where armed forces were sided with Talibans most of the time anyway. I doubt Ukraininas will just fold and run away. It is a matter of where Russians are aimed to stop. If south to east land strip, then maybe it will have some potential for de-escalation. If this is a full regime change operation, then this will end up very ugly very soon and I seripusly hope Ukrainians will kick ass and kick out Ruskies

Seems i might need to be going to find my monopoly guy top hat... DANGEROUSLY close to that. Russians entered southern Ukriane... I still think this is aimed to carve out a land bridge, but in the current scenario, all bets are off. Things can escalate super fast... Edit: an effin a-hole. I'd not think he had the actual lack of reason to do it in the current situation. He gave US what they wanted and became a person, who lost ALL credibility on the int. stage. And might cause a 3rd WW in the process....

Oh my god.... This is ridiculous... As predicted, huffing and puffing to deflect from economic issues at home and now the servile lapdog CBS will try to push that inflation and economic issues in US are a result of no other than your boogyman RUSSIA... Does anyone believe these ****heads still?

This pic is from a Polish version of Bild or TheSun etc. It does however show, what I would agree to be the end game for Putin's Russia. I doubt it will happen near term, but IF there is a plan for a major invasion this would be the end goal.

Like Russians care? Why do you think they got loads of reserves in the first place? They won't go any further. https://www.ft.com/content/dc77ae83-15fc-481a-8f52-9184068e6a56 Do you even trace in your bank where Russia is trading its soverign debt and who purchases it? The line was drawn and it was already known and accepted that Russia is controlling and will control Donbas in one or other way. They avoid any sanctions that could potentially harm any supply chains and resources, and that's the source of Russia's economic power. The more oil and gaas rises the better for Russia, and oil and gas will be rising in price.

So far sanctions are as expected and nothing of high significance. Let see what US admin is cooking. Most likely some tech related, but lets see.

Yes, but you can imagine if you cut lets say access to a 10th of world supplies with already stretched supply lines in the global economy and economies battling high inflation? https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/5-commodities-could-explode-ukraine-crisis-escalates Question is, can you afford even longer period of high inflation in the period of slowing economic growth. Just to point out Germany https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-21/germany-tipped-into-second-recession-by-virus-bundesbank-says

I've quoted a piece, but yes eastern side of EU and NATO is more willing to heavier sanctions, however they do not have tje weight on their own amd Humgary is am odd one out there too. Countries in the region also have some difficult history with Ukraine.

Meanwhile in US https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-truth-app-climbs-top-225650629.html https://news.yahoo.com/mike-bloomberg-warns-democrats-midterm-114134089.html

One word. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/nickel-price https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_nickel_production And think in which products it is used, and where do the other top two countries sell their resources.

Plus this... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-22/western-leaders-sidestep-calling-putin-s-move-a-ukraine-invasion

Also, some opinion to give broader economic reliance and why no meanigful santions will happen, although a trigger warning the source is very anti-Biden and exaggerating slightly in the severity of an impact. "" "" "" "" "" What happens when the sanctions hit?? Ask yourself, where do palladium, nickel, natural gas, oil, uranium, grain, fertilizer and a bunch of other goods we depend upon come from?? Yeah, the guys that Biden wants to sanction. What do you think sanctions do to inflation? There’s an election coming up in November and it already looks like Biden gets steamrolled. Does he want to make it even worse?? Literally no one in Europe wants any part of this train-wreck that Biden started. They all need Putin’s energy far more than they need our politics "" "" "" ""

Well, to burst your view, markets apparently share my view, as what happened in all these theatrics, is essentially reinforcing already existing status quo... Russia did not Invade Ukraine mainland, did not bomb cities, did not hunt down people, etc. It rolled in into an already controlled area and stopped. Did I think it would happen? No, I thought Russians together with Germany and France would strongarm Ukraine to agree the autonomy with separatists. Sanctions are also basically what they were already. NordStream 2 not operating (FOR NOW as Sholtz underlined), UK putting ban on same people and institutions which I believe were already banned by Americans, so now we only wait what US will do (i do not count the sanctions preventing US companies in dealing with Donbas republiks as real sanctions) , while Ukraine cries for more severe sanctions. If Russia will attack Ukraine forces and shell Kiev, I will eat my hat and you will have a video of it...

True, they will most likely not recognize them, but they will be pointing out that the situation was cause by an aggresive expansion of NATO and Ukraine not executing on Minsk accords earlier. (i think this will be the official line)

The full scale invasion of Ukriane and full scale war is what was deemed and still is deemed science fiction. Securing Donbas was one of the real options mentioned as the only real value for Russia going into UA is to secure as mucch of a land connection to Crimea as possible although it was vieqed as more probable to be done mostly by implementig Minsk accord in full. What Russia technically did is go into area it already controlled. Yes, there is an outrage, yes it is using military ppwer for own gains, but it also is yes, it is a real security concern for Russia on the strategic map to be cut off from Black Sea and the base in Sevastopol, and it is also yes, this is predominantly Russian populace there (over 90% speaking Russian and 10% Ukrainian). Until I'll see Russians bombing Kiev I will keep saying that all this unnecessary level of panic was a smoke and mirrors and mostly to deflect from economic and political issues. Putin abuses the state of economies, especially of EU countries as they are significanlty weaker after the Corona. Heck, I'd even dare to put as probable that all this fearmongering and threats and arming Ukraine pushed Putin into the military solution as otherwise perhaps he would get some concessions in a purely diplomatic way (intimidating and strong arming though)

It seems China is hinting to US that theu side with Russia's PoV. “China is concerned about the evolving situation in Ukraine,” Wang said, reiterating that China’s stance on the matter had not changed and that “every country’s security concern should be respected”. “The fact that the Ukraine crisis has evolved to this stage is related to the delayed implementation of the Minsk agreement,” Wang said

It's interesting to see China being resereved in its view of Ukraine. They still may be worried about how would their decision impact western claims on Taiwan. Until they will address independence of these 'republics' we really do not know. If they would recognize them, we know that they want to have Russians just stop on these territories. If not, it will be an interesting nut to crack for Putins relations with China. Now, it seems Russia is not entirely supporting 'republiks' claims to full Oblasts, and sticks to keep only the currently controlled areas. On the other side it seems that those republiks thrown ultimatum to Ukraine to abandon and withdraw from the Donetsk Oblast completely, meaning 2/3s of it still controlled by UA, which includes a large port city in the south (Mariupol?)

Ok, things escalate quickly... PUTIN ORDERS RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES TO START 'PEACEKEEPING MISSION' IN E. UKRAINE BREAKAWAY REGIONS -- RIA Seems Ukraine is moving northnof the separatists territory, to make sure they are able to respond should Russians try to move further than the separatist controlled areas...

I guess sooner or later Russia wanted to get its secure land route to Crimea. Putin made a move, bold one, but I assume that tomorrow China will back those up as well (independace of the people and UA atrocities againa Russian speaking populce) , as a response for various EU and US declarations around Taiwan and Uighurs. Having Russia and China backing would be a huge issue to Germany and France. Ukraine will have to fold, and worst of this is, they have been treated as a tool in bigger geopolitics and tit for tat actions. Now... I wonder what will happen should China keep quiet... Will Putin have to scale back then? Edit: seema US response is kinda meh so far... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/white-house-biden-prohibit-trade-investment-with-ukraine-breakaway-regions-2022-02-21/

He either already knows he got it and now is just a theatrics, or i gave him too much of a credit and he is willing to isolate Russia from the West for good and be 100% dependant on China, which would make him a cretin, for doing so for non important pieces of land.

I wonder how our US friends look at the current housing market. Does this piece resonate with what you are seeing in your areas? https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/its-another-housing-bubble-and-fed-holding-pin

Russians claim to have captured a single PoW from Ukraines saboteurs. Probably some poor sod forced into theatrics, but uniform, Id etc can be verified. Although a better point would be made with those supposedly killed 5 UA soldiers crossing border with Russia, although such pictures in media would most likely get panic to 11, so they keep it to words only.

That's Putins game, and he is making his intention clear to media, so France and Germany will make Ukraine to buckle in the talks with all 4 involved later today or later this week. Putin is setting ground for US humiliation, as he will get Minsk accord implemented and will give Frane and Germany to bask in light of countries who brokered peace in Ukraine with Russia.

As expected Putin is now ignoring US admin and wants just talks with French, Germany and Ukraine. Postponing any talks of a US-Russia summit after the other format is conducted first. He does not want to give any ground to US to call any de-escalation as the US admins success.

On another topic, today Trump's social media launches... I expect a spectacle in US media. Maybe finally they will stop fearmongering with war and will go to their tried amd tested Trump bashing... It will be an interesting area to watch. I think it will have a rocky start and will not be sustainable long term, esecially with its name... It'll go supernova, i.e. shine strongly and exploding initially, just to collapse on itself within 1-2 years. It will however cause spasm in the Twitter realm.