Darkpriest

Because I value this place for something, which would most likely cause me a lot of grief in other places. I can write in almost unfiltered way, with all the emotions attached. If you think this language is not professional, you'd never want to see what happens on various Bloomberg chats between trading desks or trading and analytics. The ZH is not a 'source' as in it does not shape my views. I use it to reference to views sourced from some other authors (people still make the same mistake of not recognizing what is a ZH article and what is an 'authored' article sourced from some other place) . It also contains charts in daily summaries or related topics that I could not share from my resources as screens etc. , for example some Bloomberg or Refinitiv data based views. On ZH you are also more likely to read opinions which are contrarian to main media sources, and that in itself is a value. The hedge funds world works on various contrarian scenarios. ( watch The Big Short for example to view a simplified and sterilized view of some of the things people do in funds) . I've called on inflation and asset buble in 2021, I've called on the social and economic costs of excessive sanctions on a commoditty giant, I've called on a debt crisis and credit panic, which in near term will lead to stagflation as central banks will throw in a towel on inflation fight as the costs of recession and issues with soverign debt will amplify. I rarely point to a gold bug like Peter Shiff, but read some of his publicized estimates on debt service costs in US, should the high rates persist. You've already witnessed first hand recently what UK suffered in relation to debt issues. On the UA front, just give it more time. The support will start to wane by the end of the year and will drop significantly by the end of Q1 2023. There will be a lot more domestic social issues to solve in EU and US. China might soon pounce on Taiwan too. Even read something on main media on this, after the recent Xi reelection. Markets certainly decided to bail at the moment. Some funds are risking to go back in now, with hopes of stabilization, but here I'm more pesimistic after the recent 'chip bans' from US. Lets see if Xi will make German channcelor squirm during his visit and take back what he voiced in Japan.

It's more of catch-22. If you will work for energy costs relief and stabilizing prices you are going bankrupt on the debt and lack of ECB support as bond yields or ITA bonds would explode. Probably EU commission would also freeze post-covid help funds. Given the choices, I can see why she does what she does now. Question is, how long she can meander in such political conditions. I'm also not surprused she would rather have someone else get the head out in the current economic situation and come off clean, that you never had a real chance at governing, when the next elections come.

@BruceVC Slightly unrelated, but that incomptent **** Truss could not outlast a lettuce. She folded after 44 days and managed to burry the Queen, The GBP and most likely The Torries. (lets not forget her incompetence in the foreign affairs and the trip to Russia to rattle a sabre there amd do a publicity stunt instead of real diplomacy)

Well, theybtold him to Efff off Anyway, if US gov does not want to pay for its proxy war, why should a single company pay USD 20mil/month? And the company is not yet profitable to begin with, so 100mil at current cost of debt is quite a big single org donation

Seems Turkey is on board with Russia, at least when it comes to becoming a gas hub to EU, replacing NS initiative.

US acting irresponsibly towards their own energy supplies... I guess Dems are that afraid of fuel prices affecting midterms, so they drain strategic reserves to dangerously low levels, where in fact it loses its stratego 'reserve' status. Just to hold of oil price and gasoline increases until the modterms... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-tools-table-respond-opec-including-more-spr-releases-white-house-says Who knows, maybe China will strike on Taiwan when SPR will be even lower just before or day afyer elections....

A tinfoil hat theory, which I've crafted as one of odd but not impossible scenarios... 1) China keeps economy in a shut down mode due to the 'covid', even though nowhere else this strick measuers are in place, not even close. 2) China has strict population movement and communication restrictions 3) China has been ramping up military activity 4) Xi is waiting for 'lifetime' election 5) US has been ignoring quite openly all the red lines that China put on the Taiwan issue 6) China observes impact on the Western economies of current RU-UA conflict Theory is, that with all the shutdown of economh and population controls, once Xi gets re-elected and the full scope of the economic damage comes to play into view in the West (especially EU), they will move with Taiwan formal annexation back to the mainland. Not sure how the weather season is there, but I would assume they would pick a moment where ocean/sea conditions are regularly bad.

Seems Russians took the gloves off and want to send Ukraine to the pre-Industrial times https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/second-day-air-raid-sirens-across-ukraine-energy-facilities-pummeled

Nah, it's a polit posturing and game. India still gulp a lot of gas and oil. As for Russia-China lovey sovey, US is keen on making it stronger. US over the weekend declared an economic war to China, with a ban on a lot of new tech. This may backfire and may lead to a prompt take over of Taiwan and the semiconductor business/infrastructure. If you will look at the rhetoric coming out of China after the weekend, it's bad... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/-no-possibility-of-reconciliation-as-us-chip-rules-slam-china

Well, as far as the whole thing goes, it goes to pre-invasion part and cutting off water and stuff to Crimea.

On another side, the hits on the UA infrasteucture have led UA to stop sending electricity surpluss to Europe as they need to stabilize their grid. That was based on yesterday's UA announccement, with effective date today. I wonder what more damages are done since today morning. It's clear that Russians will be weaponizing the infrastructure hits in UA to put the economy to a halt (with - 30%GDP alread in dmg done to UA) and create civil unrest and disruptions as people will lack basic amenities for the winter time. In Russian eyes it seems justified QPQ for the same type of actions aimed at Crimea and its citizens.

Shortages I say! Blimey!

Seems, per NYT, that it was Ukrainians orchestrating the Crimea bridge car bombing. ------ A senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was behind the attack. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, added that Ukraine's intelligence services had orchestrated the explosion, using a bomb loaded onto a truck being driven across the bridge It was unclear if the driver of the truck, who died in the blast, was aware there were explosives inside

Some have a theory, since it was an Azer driver, that it was CIA led action using Turkey's influence in the Azerbejan-Armenia conflict, where Turks support Azers and Russia supports Orminas. There is definately a lot of grey areas, although less so, than in the case of Nordstream piplines destruction, where two main beneficiaries are easily located, US, and anti-NS/German Poland

Hitting main city artery, attempt to destroy a bridge in Kiev, a storehouse, etc. Those are infrastructure hits. Poorly executed, but nevertheless they are such. Last I read confirmed numbers it was 10 dead and 60 wounded in all attacks. Maybe you have more accurate and more current news?

And how many casualties are reported? I think less than in your average carbombing? As for infrastructure, you might check your news again. Even @pmp10posted targets hit here

I'm fairly sure it is more aimed to actually kill the infraatructure, like electricity, heating, waterpumps etc. Maybe also road structure in big cities. Given the past experiences, it is possible some of the offshots were either deflections from air defense strikes or just a poor aim. The number of casualties does not indicate a 'civilian terror killing'. If they would aim for that, they would hit apartmebt buildings.

Turkey is aggresively expanding its 'economic zone' due to various resources ubnder the sea. There has been a lot of political clashes around Cyprus as well

A couple points for thought as things are emerging. 1) Apparently UK and GER consume way too much energy and are in a material risk of running out of supplies unless serious cuts will start right now. Wonder what will that do to a political scene? https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/official-germans-using-too-much-gas-to-avoid-energy-crisis/2022/10/06/618326f0-4566-11ed-be17-89cbe6b8c0a5_story.html NOT asking = be prepared to be asked. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-government-not-asking-people-use-less-energy-minister-says-2022-10-07/ 2) Seems Turkey is openly threathening Greeks with demilitirization of Aegean Greek Islands. What a hot engagement would do to the NATO relations? Who would US back? An EU member or 2nd largest NATO military and a power actor in the ME as well as a counterweight for Russia in the Black Sea region? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/26/turkey-files-protest-with-greece-and-us-as-aegean-tensions-rise

@BruceVC Oil at 95, Biden admin furious at OPEC on the cut, and more production cuts are expected in Dec, should EU not falter and decide to go with price caps and embargo on maritime Russian Oil.

Not sure where you get that ratio from, but until the conflict is over, i doubt any ratio can be verified. I'd be surprised on a such, considering that Russia still has artilery superiority and air force and long range missiles are still on the Russia advantage side. Perhaps in some close combat or ambusj scenarios that holds true, but i doubt that overall one would be so skewed to one side. War would be over there by now with such a ratio.

Here, Reuters on US base in Syria https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-base-syria-targeted-failed-rocket-attack-2022-09-19/

Well considering all the donated equipment, training, intel, etc. he is not far from truth. (aside of long range tactical and strategic weaponary) The difference is, its Ukrainian bodies pilling up in that conflict against similar piles of Russian bodies. Russians can probably loose 300k men. Can UA to? It's unfortunate and i do agree with Musk on his assessment. I think I even mentioned similar, early in the war, that this is the minimum Russia will want onve they commited to war. Land corridor to Crimea and safety of water and energy supplies.

You will likely not see this in Western media as it is quite uncomfortable. https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/us-sends-more-stolen-oil-from-syria-to-iraqi-bases/93698373 However, you will hear on attacks on US forces stationed in OIL rich areas of Syria. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/19/us-military-base-in-syria-targeted-in-failed-rocket-attack

It sort of goes the same for every deemed 'superpower'. US is no different in ignoring whats on paper when it is incovenient... For example, continous looting and pilliging of Syrian Oil fields by US Army Corps of Engineers.