Everything posted by Leferd
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2016 Olympics
I'm not a Phelps fan and despite her family being owners of the New York Islanders, I like Ledecky. That said, Phelps is the undisputed biggest name in swimming, if not the Olympics. He is the bigger story and generates a lot more interest and eyeballs.
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The US Election 2016, Part V
Yeah, my black friends I talked to when this first started happening was that he's racist and being racist automatically means he has something against black people. Even though, I couldn't ever get an example of it. Blacks/women/Muslims/disabled/vets, etc.,...: http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/27/politics/donald-trump-insults-groups-list/ Latinos: http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_55e483a1e4b0c818f618904b Mexicans: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/07/08/donald-trumps-false-comments-connecting-mexican-immigrants-and-crime/ Jews: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/back-donald-trumps-tumultuous-relationship-jewish-voters/story?id=37811413 Judges: http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/31/opinions/trump-attack-on-judge-opinion-obeidallah/ Catholics: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/18/donald-trump-pope-francis-christian-wall-mexico-border Not counting Gold Star parents of Pakistani origins.
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What You Did Today
This is the only thing I could think of when I see her. Twins.
- All the Literature and Reading Stuff...
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2016 Olympics
Team USA gymnastics isn't out there to impress with their artistry. They are only concerned about winning.medals. So they game the points system.
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What defines you as a citizen...what really matters?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX1zIIMQg30 and certainly this...
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2016 Olympics
HOLY #$@%! Wade Van Niekerk broke Michael Johnson's 400m record! ...BLIND FROM LANE 8!!! MJ: 43.18 WVN: 43.03 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gNQHIf9EC4 ...from Lane 8.... Lane 8.
- The US Election 2016, Part V
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The US Election 2016, Part V
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue I sorry he's wearing the Gadsen flag. Easily one of the coolest symbols in US history. oddly enough, the gadsden flag is a knock-off o' an earlier minuteman flag... am drawing a blank on the name. 'course we only know the history of the gadsden flag 'cause o' the eeoc kerfuffle. HA! Good Fun! Are you referring to this one? The First Navy Jack? I actually have it up on my wall.
- The US Election 2016, Part V
- Star Wars: Rogue One
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2016 Olympics
Had Yugoslavia not fallen apart it would have been truly an interesting game to watch. Agreed. A united Yugoslavia in '92 could have been one of the greatest non-American national teams of all time - Drazen Petrovic, Vlade Divac, Toni Kukoc, Dino Radja. That's one hell of a core. Hell, a combined Yuoglavian team today would be a heavy medal favorite - Milos Teodosic, Nikola Josic, Bojan Bogdanovic, Dario Saric, Mario Hezonja, Goran Dragic, Jusuf Nurkic, Mirza Teletovic, and even Nikola Mirotic may have elected to stick around rather than play for the Spain.
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The US Election 2016, Part V
That could be true, but nevertheless, historical third party trends are against this. Ross Perot and Ralph Nader came on much stronger in the beginning only to lose voter share as it gets closer to Election Day. Using a Track & Field metaphor...Johnson isn't going to get a negative split the second half of the race compared to the first. His candidacy never built built enough momentum. Hell you could make the argument that Trump is in fact the Third Party candidate that just happens to have won a major party nomination. And like all third party candidates, they start strong only to fade away as things get closer to the election.
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The US Election 2016, Part V
GD, I'm wishing you the best but any scenario where Gary Johnson wins an electoral vote is extremely unlikely. Historically, third party candidates come on strong early but fade away losing momentum...and by election day - among those that said they'll vote third party - a huge chunk will end up voting for a major party candidate anyway. It's already August and Johnson has only reached 13% on only one poll --and that was from July 16th. Of the last seven national polls, he's only hit 10% once. Sorry man, it ain't likely happening. Colorado projections: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/#plus Utah projections: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/#plus New Mexico projections: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/#plus Trump's odds are getting closer to the point where he's having to chase after a Runner-Runner Gutshot Inside Straight Draw. Based on these projections, your Johnson scenario isn't technically drawing dead, but you'repractically hoping to hit a Four of a Kind (4,100 to 1 odds).
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The US Election 2016, Part V
Then this must be the same source that Trump gets his facts from. Which is to say that they are completely inaccurate and have nothing to do with reality. Aggregate polling data tend to get really good about a month after the national conventions. Nate Silver's models have also been historically accurate (factors in the post convention bumps, the state of the economy, and demographics). We're getting closer to that date.
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2016 Olympics
Yeah, me too. I just want to see good basketball. USA's aesthetics are abysmal.
- Star Wars: Rogue One
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The US Election 2016, Part V
Bruce, don't get too excited. It's only August. In August of 2000 Gore was leading Bush, in 1988 Dukakis was leading the other Bush, Romney & Obama were in a dead heat (the election wasn't that close) and Obama was blowing out McCain (the election ended up being pretty close). We haven't even had the debates yet. A LOT can happen. Especially if Johnson gets in and offers a viable 3rd choice. If Jill Stein gets in (which is looking like a possibility) it's Hodor hold the door after that. After the last debate THEN you can start believing the polls. GD, where are you getting your polling and voting information? In 2008, Obama had 52.9% of the popular vote to McCain's 45.7%. On 8/7/08, FiveThirthyEight gave Obama a 63.8% chance of victory. https://web.archive.org/web/20080807174038/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ in 2012 it was Obama 51.0% to Romney's 47.1%. On 8/13/12, FiveThirtyEight had Obama as the 71.6% favorite to win. https://web.archive.org/web/20120813072907/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Gore was leading Bush in August 2000 and he did you know...win the popular vote. As for Dukakis/Bush...yes Dukakis dropped his lead over Bush but well....he had an incompetent campaign and the sitting President was extremely popular and GHWB was essentially running for a third term. Really good retrospective on the 1988 Dukakis meltdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGu848znQpc http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/film-how-to-destroy-a-presidential-candidate/ As of today, Clinton is given a 77% chance of victory. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus Current battleground states projections:
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2016 Olympics
Absolutely brilliant 10K world record shattering performance by Almaz Ayana of Ethiopia... 29:17.45 --breaking the old record by 14 seconds! The Ethiopians and Kenyans essentially went balls out right from the gun --completely running roughshod over all sensibilities of tactics and energy conservation...and weeding out those not strong enough to keep pace. Gutsy -high risk/high reward strategy. But it worked out for Ayana and I certainly want to see her go all out again and get the double and another WR in the 5K.
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Star Wars: Rogue One
- 2016 Olympics
Favorite part of the game was Cousins having another patented meltdown; getting benched --throwing a tantrum, then Draymond having to go up to him and telling him to CHILL THE F-- DOWN. Oh Boogie, don't ever change.- 2016 Olympics
Technically speaking, James Naismith was Canadian.- The US Election 2016, Part V
- MLB 2016 - Even Year Magic
Prince Fielder is done. Both he and his pops have 319 career home runs.- 2016 Olympics
That's true. ...though I liked Summer Sanders and Janet Evans. Natalie Coughlin is also pretty chill despite going to Carondelet for high school. - 2016 Olympics