pmp10

A very outspoken (and very retired) general suggested that Poland should intervene in case of uprising in Belarus. Got him the same eyerolls as his earlier suggestions to attack Kaliningrad.

For now it's almost certainly a bluff. In Poland no politician has even dared to publicly mention anything of the sort. But that brings up the more interesting question of what the west is willing to offer Ukraine. There has been some talk of the 'hedgehog' or 'Israel' model, but it sounds like just arming Ukraine and hoping for the best.

NATO summit in July is slowly closing. Zelensky threatens to boycott it if Ukraine is not given an 'accession signal'. I wonder what would satisfy Ukraine as major players (US included) oppose membership roadmap at this point. The expectation was that the offensive would change things but as things stand, it may not even start before then.

I'd say it's less a serious peace offer and more a signal to the west. They are apparently willing to give-up on regime change and direct control of the country. But they are not about to let Ukraine get-off from that Russian cutting board.

Russia has finally hinted at its peace conditions. Besides accepting de facto territorial changes Ukrainian 'neutrality' is expected. What is new that in now means no EU integration as well as no NATO. Ukraine responded with equally maximalist demands.

G7 has been warning that Ukraine cannot turn into a frozen conflict. Pretty surprising and they didn't seem to mind beforehand. If this is a serious position then F16s can be seen more as a stick to get Russia to negotiate rather than a carrot for Ukraine.

US is now fine with Ukraine getting F-16s. It's not about to provide any (yet?) but chances are that some European countries will. This leaves ATACMS as the final tech that US would not provide so far.

And in diplomatic news: Chinees envoy was told Ukraine won't accept territorial loss or freezing of the conflict. We will see if anything changes after the offensive or the NATO summit.

Turns out Zelensky at one point planned occupation of Russian territory. Seems he doesn't think Ukraine has much diplomatic leverage. At one point he was also upset enough with Hungary to suggest striking at the Druzhba pipeline.

Ukraine is trying to lower expectations for the offensive. Makes sense as they likely lack the necessary means but are politically forced to go ahead. There have been diplomatic signals that they will only get this one shot before west starts to negotiate.

Leaks continue: Russia is planning to recruit another 400k for the war this year. Preferably quietly with the help of regional authorities, but I wouldn't exclude another draft if they think it necessary.

Another interesting assessment from the leaked documents: Russia can withstand sanctions for at least another year. Which would mean that even at a minimum they have the potential to drag it out until US elections.

Apparently the 9 new Ukrainian brigades trained in the west are ready: That's pretty surprising as the leaked documents showed that most of them hasn't even started training before March. The original plan was to provide some 3 months of training for each of them.

Politics moving to twitter. For context: Stoltenberg made a far reaching comment that all NATO members have agreed to admit Ukraine. For a second it gave the impression that something more than the 2008 "timeline: never" promise was on offer.

Macron is trying to set up peace talks with the help of China. Doesn't even want to wait for autumn, very likely all done behind the back of US. At this rate that facade of western-unity won't last much longer.

Might be the first public feeler from Russia about freezing the war. But for now it is coming pretty far from the Kremlin. Does anyone know how this was taken in Russia?

According to leaked documents US expects limited gains in Ukrainian offensive. Seems consistent with previous predictions of a stalemate in 2023. The real question is what happens afterwards.

And the results of China visits are now in. Far from convincing Xi to dump Russia, Macron was convinced Europe should dump US. Or maybe he was just looking for an excuse to get back to his old position.

There was one thing of some worth in the training and equipment plan for 9 new Ukrainian brigades. According to the leaked document these were clearly not going to be ready for April. But chances are that Russians already knew that from other sources.

A few diplomatic hints as to what may lay ahead in the future: Ukraine is not about to get any plans for NATO membership But is dropping hints it might discuss the status of Crimea Now we see if Russia responds in some way.

Zelensky visited Warsaw today. Besides the usual talking points and a minor arms 'contract' there was one interesting statement made by Polish president: There has been speculation that Ukraine will try to resist freezing of the war and this is the first move in gathering political support.

After XI's visit in Russia the EU is hoping for Chinese help in winding-down the war. It starts with mixed messages as VDL warns about consequences of Chinese 'decisions'. In a few days she and Macron will travel to Beijing, where I bet she will play the bad cop. Along with visits from Sanchez and Borrell this is quite the effort to sway (or in the very least probe) the Chinese stance. I wonder if the visit in Moscow scared them or gave them hope.

Another article suggesting we might be heading for a forever war. If true there will be no freezing of this conflict come fall/winter. Or at least not on conditions that would allow Ukrainian long-term survival.

Wrong phrasing on my part but I don't think giving out this information was terribly smart. The exact Russian capability to produce/refurbish equipment was subject to a lot of speculation on minimal basis so having numbers from the source is quite useful. Even if they come with the usual caveats of politician cherry-picking data they find convenient.

So Putin let slip an interesting little detail recently. He claimed to produce over 1600 tanks in 3 years. If this number is credible that would likely amount to over 500 tanks produced, refurbished and modernized per annum. For this year it would only be twice of what Ukraine is expected to receive, but in case of a forever-war only US has the capability to match.