Zoraptor

Tucker Carlson to interview Vladimir Putin. Successfully resisted crossposting to the Funny thread for now.

It still took a decent amount of time for Bakhmut to go from a similar position, and Sverodonetsk. Should be faster for Avdivka given it's a lot flatter which will make an ad hoc supply line more difficult, but 'should be' doesn't always become 'was'. As with both of those a militarily justifiable decision to hold initially is in very real danger of turning into an unjustifiable mess due to political considerations.

Can't believe Zelensky of all people would spread pro Russian rumours like that. Abrams supposedly (and even from some of the pro UA mappers etc, too belatedly) seen around Avdivka- which is finally starting to look really terminal for the Ukrainians since the Russians are in the last line of houses before open ground near the Coke Plant. Once those are taken they'll have clear line of sight on Ukrainian supply lines and only be ~4km from their southern pincer.

Wasn't CIWS if it's the video I'm thinking of, as that ship didn't have one. Pecheneg or even a RPK. Seems a bit funny, but during the Falklands British sailors regularly tried to shoot down Argentine A4s with bog standard assault rifles (!) when Sea Sparrow failed. Phalanx being able to depress further was one of the (few) changes actually made due to the infamous Millennium Challenge, iirc. Same depression as the equivalent Russian system though. Not really hitting the target that is the issue so much as detecting it, since you don't need to take meatbags into account you can design sea drones to be only marginally buoyant and sealed thus extremely low profile, and you can pack a lot more explosive in or give it a lot larger engines than one that has to carry people. Ironically, the Russian are still up on Tarantul class corvettes as they captured 4 of them from Ukraine.

Strong western backing for Zaluzhny seems a bit odd when they spent a couple of months blaming him for the 'counter'offensive failing due to not being NATO enough. You're probably not meant to think about that implication too deeply though- see other excuses like it failing due to the Russians unfair conduct in not retreating(!) or the presence of undergrowth. Given the timing my immediate thought was that Zelensky would blame him for the procurement scandal and use that as an excuse. Only reason that elections would be insisted on would be if they wanted to get rid of Zelensky for some reason. 20% of Ukraine's population is held by Russia, 25% is outside Ukraine as refugees; not great circumstances for an election.

According to The Times Zaluzhny was asked to resign, told he'd be fired when he refused but wasn't due to Syrsky and Budanov refusing the post (plus push back from allies).

Now that's unfair, Alexander Boris de Ffefel says he'll be there, with bells on (the Torygraph, via MSN since MSN isn't paywalled). God Save the King indeed.

Most interesting thing about the whole situation: accusations against 12 UNRWA members out of 30,000 from Israel --> outrage, cut off the funding! Israel found to be plausibly committing genocide (ICJ cannot issue instructions if it's not plausible) --> keep up the funding! Hope that Israeli Intelligence was better than the guard roster that was a calendar plus the command bunker under Al Shifa, the missiles launched from two spots 6km apart etc. Not to mention how fantastic their signals intelligence is, now. Shame it wasn't so awesome on October 6th though, eh? Would be good if South Africa adds all the countries contributing to that plausible genocide by cutting aid a few days after that judgement right as all the people on the ground say shortage is turning to starvation to their ICJ action. Feel free to send the Black Helicopters to pick up our craven bootlicker and utter oxygen thief Chris Luxon in particular.

The Deus Ex game was in pre-production for two years so it was more of a decision not to proceed, at this point (since that would require extra staff and Embracer simply cannot afford them).

8 accused out of 15,000? Article says 17000 which is even more, but 2000 are local employees. Perhaps the west should send more than their (checks numbers) 20 peacekeepers to bring enlightenment to and help keep the uncivilised in line? Though of course the best way to make sure that you get precisely zero western peacekeepers is... to give the UN actual power to discipline/ prosecute soldiers under its command instead of it remaining with the contributor. Considering 2.5% of Gaza's population is meant to be members of Hamas' armed wing according to Israel the UN has done a superlative job of vetting if they've managed only 10% with a familial link.

If true it will be interesting to see what if anything they give as the reason since Zaluzhny is meant to have political aspirations unlike most of the other people dismissed recently.

To be precise it's 12 out of more than 30000 UNRWA workers that were accused by Israel. Those pulling UNRWA funding are a who's who of Israel's enablers, making a coordinated effort to drown out the ICJ ruling and provide cover for Israel to continue its policies, nothing more or less. Just a shame they'll never be dragged before a court for it. Not quite Gaza but definitely related- no matter how much some would like to pretend it's wholly separate- 3 US soldiers killed near the At-Tanf military base. US seems to be insisting they were on the Jordanian side (as the legality of their presence in Syria is... tenuous at best under international law) and the Jordanians that they were on the Syrian side.

I think the more realistic take is that if Avowed does well then you get Avowed 2, if it does badly it's proof that the setting is bad and you don't get any more Pillars games at all. I really don't know how BG3 will effect the possibilities for other RPGs. Larian is in a near unique situation with its own very distinct style and prior success/ fanbase based largely on MP and intrinsic hype due to the D&D/ Baldur's Gate names. Obsidian can replicate some of those, but PoE3 wouldn't have a fraction of the hype that the Baldur's Gate name generated, and a lot lot less than Divinity/ Original Sin. You'd probably need an 'isometric' Fallout to replicate that hype.

The distinction between civilians and combatants is inherent. If you're a combatant you give up a lot of protections that civilians have and are under the aegis of a different set of rules for conduct and treatment (eg Geneva Conventions) If a Gazan woman picks up an AK and tries to shoot an IDF soldier they're 100% allowed and expected to shoot back. Essentially, you cannot genocide combatants as they are legitimate targets, only protected groups (civilians). It's a pretty damning judgement for Israel, but it's not one that forces (well, 'forces') them to stop fighting entirely, just be a lot more careful and limited.

Eh, tribunal is a specific type of court in this context- and I can provide a plethora of sources calling it a court too, if I need to. The second part is an addition, no mention of it having to be an 'international institution' originally; but it any case they were establishedby the UN same as the ICJ so shares the exact same legitimacy. Which is the highest there is under international law. That they were established to look at a specific set of cases makes them no less an international institution than a domestic court established to look at a subset of cases- eg Family Court or the Waitangi Tribunal here- is a domestic institution.

ICTR preceded that by a decade. ICTfY also brought genocide charges before the ICC did (indeed, the ICC was their successor entity). Most were not really what the ICJ was intended for though, since the ICJ is for inter country disputes, not internal matters. You might be able to haul, say, France up before the ICJ for contributing to the Rwandan Genocide by training the Interahamwe*, you couldn't haul Rwanda up though. Especially after the government that was doing the genocide fell; that's what the UNSC is for, In Theory. *no fan of France's conduct at all, but that'd be too long a bow even for me barring some major new revelations of direct complicity. They can order things that amount to a ceasefire without using the formal term for it though. They could have ordered a full cessation of the air campaign for example on the basis that it was manifestly indiscriminate/ disproportionate; it was just highly unlikely that they would. They can do pretty much anything even if no war is declared except for using certain Technical Terms that only exist between warring states. eg they ordered Russia to withdraw from Ukraine without a formal war being declared.

Ben-Gvir and Bezazel Smotirch probably feel personally attacked by the no incitement order. About as much as could reasonably have been expected given that a blanket ceasefire order was always unlikely, and a clear diplomatic loss for Israel. The US response (~no ceasefire order, no ruling of genocide [not going to happen in a preliminary ruling] and telling Hamas to release hostages --> it's an Israeli victory!) is far better than the Israeli tossing of toys out of cot even if it's so specific a take on the ruling as to be a functional lie. Unfortunately, as prior, it also gives a huge amount of wiggle room to Israel's supporters. Even the Israeli judge voted for two of the measures.

Preliminary measures will have no teeth anyway, since there's no enforcement mechanism. It would be politically embarrassing for someone like Rishi Sunak to keep selling weapons, maybe, but then Kair Starmer is barely less a fan of killing Gazan children than Sunak is. Politically embarrassing for Scholtz too, since he joined in the defence but ultimately I'd expect whatever wiggle room there is to be used to the fullest, and the press to largely go along with it. In the end the only party that really matters to Israel is the US, and Biden has already said that no matter what they will support Israel. Which of course leads to Israel blithely ignoring all the suggestions Blinken et al make... They could order Israel not to resume bombing even if they'd paused it. Though something as blanket as that seems... unlikely since there are legitimate reasons for some bombing. So the most likely phrasing would be something like 'indiscriminate bombing'/ 'disproportionate targeting of civilians' etc- and there's the wiggle room that was being looked for above. Far more likely would be orders to stop arbitrarily destroying homes (hard to feel much sympathy at all for the 21 Israeli soldiers blown up by their own mines while doing so a couple of days ago) and infrastructure, medical facilities, allow more food in and the like.

They have had ceasefires with no cross border incidents before, Hamas is able to enforce them if it wants to (and with acceptance that they don't have absolute control over, say, Islamic Jihad). Israel also has a... rather large number of Palestinians in administrative detention. Much like 'collateral damage' being a euphemism for killing civilians that is a euphemism for kidnapping people off the streets to be held indefinitely without charge or access to lawyers, and often subjected to torture as well. It's one of the reasons I dislike 'terrorism' as a term; a country can't commit it for the sole reason that countries have defined it as something only non state actors do. DGSE agents don't get to not be terrorists for blowing up boats here just because they work for France, Shin Bet don't get not be either just because they work for Israel. Seems a bit harsh that. Not sure even dementors deserve to be shut in with Bibi. ICJ, sure. ICC, lol. The ICC is a 30s Sicilian Court and the west is the Cosa Nostra. You might get some legitimate ruling when the Dons aren't involved, but never when they are.

ICJ judgements are binding (unless specified otherwise) but they're not enforceable. ie they don't have any way- short of the UNSC or similar- to enforce their decisions via a 'police force' equivalent. Non binding is similar practically, especially in these circumstances, but would not be enforced except voluntarily even if they had that 'police force' to do so. Plenty of other institutions rule on international crimes too, like the UNSC. They didn't need the ICJ to rule that Iraq invading Kuwait was illegal, for instance.

ICJ is going to announce any preliminary measures this week. Not a decision on the main case but on RSA's request for an injunction to stop Israel's attacks. Interesting statistic for the day, total number of deliberate and premeditated attacks on healthcare facilities with indiscriminate and inaccurate barrel bombs and other munitions during the Syrian Civil War over ~520 weeks (~364 active) that constitute a war crime and gross violation of international norms: 600. Total number of self defence actions with precision munitions on supposed medical facilities with (oh so very) clandestine military use in the Israel Gaza War that were 100% necessary and absolutely not war crimes, over ~14 weeks: 660. 30x the Israeli strikes on health facilities by time. Now I wonder about by population as well... 300x the rate you say? Thank goodness they're the most moral army in the world, moderated further by Joe Biden's influence and limited even further by the strident criticism in the free press, eh. Otherwise they might have been limited to Assad's rookie numbers.

Not going to stop until they start putting execs into prison. Otherwise, they'll keep running Boeing shambolically on a pure short term profit basis because there's not enough incentive/ consequences for them not to. Boeing has the perfect trifecta of prestige/ strategic industry, Too Big to Fail and its competitor not being able to come close to satisfy the whole market's demand (plus only one competitor, no 737 --> A320 monopoly). The wait time for a 737 or A320 is almost identical- 12 years. Shut the 737 down and someone switching to Airbus could expect delivery of their planes in, well, 2044.

The ultimate answer to that is that it still makes Valve money. Not like they have massive staffing or infrastructure costs- in absolute terms, sure they'd be large, but not on a per transaction basis. Indeed, the more transactions they have the lower the cost per transaction is and the cheaper they could sell at profitably (in theory). And Steam certainly has a lot of sales volume.

lol. There's a reason Pew isn't regarded all that highly any more. 24 selected countries; includes the US, doesn't include China. Includes 12/31 NATO countries- ie half the countries selected- but does include noted independent voices... uh, Australia, RoK, Japan and Israel as well. Not a single arab country, one muslim country (Indonesia), three quarters of the countries surveyed are literally literally in alliances with the US. Unsurprisingly, 15/16 most favourable countries to the US are... its allies. Not exactly a statistically independent selection, rather the opposite In some ways it's embarrassing they only managed 59% approval given the blatant stacking taking place.

Haha yes. Not just Tom Cooper, but David "City of Robotyne (pop74)" Axe relying on Cooper. Far, far more likely to be friendly fire. Not like either side has a particularly good record so far as that is concerned. (You can discount two Axe's of his possibilities out of hand for not having the range. The S-300 would literally have had to be driven through Russian lines to hit an A-50 over the Sea of Azov in most places and even at the closest point could barely hit the coast from the frontline. Seems plausible if you read wikipedia, but Ukraine only has up to 55R missiles, and that's 75km range. Pac-3 would have to be fired well within standard artillery range to hit just off the coast plus the damage to the IL-22 is clearly not from a hard kill (impact) system like a Pac-3 but from airburst/ proximity. So not that either. That only leaves Pac-2. Even there the A-50 out ranges even the Pac-2 twice over according to Axe's own figures, so is well able to 'see' northern Crimea yet remain our of range. The suggested scenario would at minimum have the Patriot within Tornado and Lancet range, and the Patriot is an... unwieldy system, for an ambush. This wouldn't be toodling a full system some tens of km from Kiev to fire at aircraft over Bryansk or whatever, it'd be moving it hundreds of km into Tornado and Lancet range on a hope. OTOH, S-200 would be a possibility. Ukraine has them and has been using them again, they have a lot more range than anything else they have and the right warhead. While they're also ancient, Syrian ones have shot down a F-16 and allegedly hit a F-35 in recent years; an A-50 would be an easy target compared to them)