Zoraptor

Before the US intervened the Taleban didn't control all the country, after the US intervention- or, lest we forget, a month before the end of it, in actuality- the Taleban controlled all of it. The question that the US needs to ask is why and how they managed to make things worse and how they made the Taleban look more attractive to Afghans than they did in 2001. Ultimately the problem was that as with every recent intervention the US spent its time building "a legitimate and internationally recognized government"- ie one that would do what the US wants- but very little into building a legitimate and internally recognised government. If you start everything off by saying that they could pick anyone for a leader so long as it was the US candidate (Karzai) you've told the country that the wants and needs of the US will always be paramount from the get go, and that the leadership will always be beholden to the US. Far and away the best strategy was to allow them to pick their own leader even if it wasn't the one you really wanted. Not like they were trying to install Hekmatyar, after all. Unsurprisingly, not many Afghans wanted to fight for US interests instead of their own so much so that many of the first provinces to fall to the Taleban were not the pastun heartland of the south but the old bastions of resistance in the north.

I mean, the US could have started by allowing the Loya Jirga to do what they wanted. Which was to bring back ex king Zahir Shah, not have US stooge Hamid Karzai imposed on them. Telling the Afghan's they had to have a system the US wanted, lead by the man the US wanted permanently established said system as imposed on the Afghan people and owed no loyalty, and its leaders as Quislings owed no loyalty. Not like keeping the emperor played out badly for post war Japan, eh. But optics trumped practicalities because of the overriding need to cater to US domestic politics where having a king return under the US aegis would have looked bad.

Nobody outside ROK and Ukraine are talking about the North Koreans for multiple reasons- but mostly because at this point they exist as much as the 40k Syrians from 2022 did. ie there may be some there (definitely been some Syrians soldiers there, but we're talking dozens mostly, on and off, and mostly none; indeed there are still significantly more Russian personnel in Syria than v/v) but not many. It's doubtful the west in general wants to talk much about having a few troops on the ground as well because... they've got some there too. As for the rest: “By a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.” Having been bombarded with how badly Russia is doing; all its casualty figures, equipment losses, morale collapses, corruption, and yes, how it needs to beg 10k troops off of Kim there's a certain irony in being told by the Supreme Allied Commander (lol) that actually all of it will make them stronger at the end. (for a more detailed example; when it comes to new equipment we're simultaneously told that sanctions are so effective Russia can't even make tanks any more- a genuine example from 2022- plus all the other stuff like the multiple times they were running out of missiles etc yet per Cavoli they're going to be re-equipped with new, better gear at the end as well? I mean, it's pretty obvious what the truth is- the sanctions aren't very effective, and have mostly resulted in Russia in housing the production chain- but, we get told that they're resorting to stealing washing machines for parts and having to fight with shovels, and that they're going to be better equipped at the end...)

Leaked (or 'leaked') intelligence on Israel's plans to attack Iran. Few days old and not exactly confirmed, but consensus now seems to be that it's genuine with the main question being how deliberate the leak was, and what the motivations behind it were.

Things you aren't meant to remember for today: 40,000 Syrians registered to join Russian forces in 2022. Of course, there are still and always have been more Syrians fighting for Ukraine to this day than fighting against it. Bonus, just for Bruce as commiseration for the cricket result: Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 20 October 2024. Utterly pro Ukrainian sourcing too. So, desperate enough to need North Koreans, yet simultaneously stronger than ever... as always. Given the way the war has been it's far more likely that the Koreans would be learning/ observing drone warfare stuff than having any direct involvement.

By context (below, direct quote from his speech to the European Council summit) he was referring to (a) fully fledged nuke(s) rather than a 'dirty bomb' type weapon; though practically a radiological bomb seems more likely to be what was actually delivered. Unless they went the South African route and bought them off Israel. though as is often the case with these situations he also said: which made it fairly clear it was at least not an active policy.

Whatever the US said they'd know it would be largely irrelevant. Ukraine using a nuke would be an immense and immediate geopolitical loss for the west and they couldn't say anything to ameliorate the Russian response.

I mean, it's typical Bruce, not really designed to do anything other than provoke a response. FTR, you don't need to freeze a body to preserve it anyway, and you don't need the body at all if you plan to identify it by dental records and DNA. Guess quoting what that UN resolution actually said hit a bit of a nerve though. Same as we read he was keeping all the hostages around him as human shields? Right? It's called propaganda*. ie Guy who clearly had multiple opportunities to flee previous was going to flee right now, for real. But, of course, we got him before he actually did it! Not even what he actually did is enough, have to make him a coward too. I do sometimes wonder if the people who come up with this stuff think about things for even a second. Quite apart from having had Danny Hagari waving a calendar around as a 'terrorist guard roster' like a dime store Mohammed Sahed al Sahif so devaluing any official claims by Israel (let alone the plethora of 'official Hamas documents' inexplicably written in, uh, english) the idea that Sinwar should go off to the local occupation authority (ie Israel) to get an official border pass is... an interesting one. *this happens all the time. People also said Yasser Arafat was embezzling massive amounts of money to spend on his palatial residence. Which for three+ years consisted of a single room without electricity in a demolished compound in Ramallah that he could have left at any time to go into exile to an actually palatial residence; he'd just never be able to go back to Palestine again. Made literally no sense if you knew the slightest thing about the situation, got repeated ad nauseum because it made some people feel morally justified about killing people and stealing their land)

One of those things you're not meant to remember: Sinwar was supposed to have all the remaining hostages around him as human shields. Strange they haven't mentioned finding any. (He's very likely dead, but also very likely killed ages ago and not in the situation suggested. It's exactly the sort of thing you save up for a PR release when you've had a bad week of publicity)

Funny that Hasbara never quote the actual document when it comes to 1701. Quite strange. It's almost like they like quoting bits of it out of context or something. Which would be odd from people who justify torturing doctors to death and "one to the head, one to the heart" for palestinian children, you'd think they'd draw the line somewhere. Oh, it's because the only part (almost) that is actually enforceable is the part which authorises increasing unifil's numbers to 15k. For anyone familiar with UN resolutions the important part is almost always the first word of the clauses, since that applies to enforceability. "Invites" "Requests" etc are not enforceable. The authorisation to increase numbers however is a "Decides". And, oddly enough, unifil's mandate isn't to disarm Hezbollah either. It's to assist the Lebanese government to do so. The Lebanese government hasn't even tried, and unifil is not authorised to act independently in the matter. Here's an interesting paragraph though el oh el. Note, no "invites" or "requests" type wording there.

The whole gold/ platinum sales thing never really seemed to catch on much in gaming as compared to music. (IIRC the reason for the term is that the master disc they used for duplication in gaming used to be differentiated from 'normal' silver discs by being coloured gold instead. That would then be sent to the fabricator)

They can and do censor anything from bureaux operating in Israel though, like the BBC* and CNN- or Fox or Sky. They outright banned roughly 300 articles per year during 'normal' times, and their powers have been strengthened over the past year taking into account them being on wartime footing now, and the infamous 'Al Jazeera Law' of April 2024. The article above has the byline of NPR's... Science correspondent. Who is considerably less likely to need to go to Israel any time soon than an international or politics one. *to illsutrate, from the Grauniad (I mean, imagine the BBC apologising to Russia for not obeying their military censor... yeah. The whole thing is supine)

Don't know why you'd be inclined to believe them, they're all subject to the IDF Military Censor- so it's Daniel Hagari deciding what does and does not get published. Funnily enough, saying that you're subject to the Military Censor is itself subject to... the Military Censor. And if you don't like that you get Al Jazeera'ed out of the country. To illustrate, every bit of Bruce's quote except one is "Israel says" only this or that was hit which is hit is exactly as credible as them saying they only hit Hamas targets in Gaza; which is patently false to anyone blessed with the gift of sight and IQ greater than ambient temperature (in celsius). Strangely, the same outlets that put up satellite images of damage to Iran or Russia the next day haven't done anything similar for these strikes. Though to be fair, that may be due to the satellite companies suddenly changing their policies. Coincidentally, disaffected journalists from CNN and BBC have been complaining to Al-J about how badly they're compromised; including this about one of the more infamous bits of misinformation:

Guys, guys, it's about 95% likely Bruce knows perfectly well about the Samson Doctrine- he's on the Codex after all- and is just trolling about Iran being irresponsible with nukes. Even if he didn't: "Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother" -- Moshe Dayan, Israeli Defence Minister. For that matter: "Our American friends offer us money, arms, and advice. We take the money, we take the arms, and we decline the advice." -- Moshe Dayan, Israeli Defence Minister Or indeed: "The method of collective punishment so far has proved effective." -- Moshe Dayan, Israeli Defence Minister plus ça change...

If the US didn't send $10bn of bombs to hit civilians Israel would be forced- forced!- to use dumb bombs and nukes(!) instead and kill even more civilians; so it's not only deescalatory it's also in keeping with the highest ideals of humanitarianism! Is an argument I have quite literally seen used. I'd like to think it was ironic... Realistically, what is happening was always going to happen as soon as it became clear the US wasn't willing to do anything at all to rein in Netanyahu beyond the mildest of mild verbal requests, and would instead support them in anything and everything.

OK, and how much do you think the 5090 will go for? Dunno, kind of feel Intel has to persevere with the GPU division. Not for the GPUs themselves though.

For anyone wondering, Israel has defensively launched about 4 times as many attacks into Lebanon as Hezbollah has into Israel. That's not just according to Al Jazeera, but also the BBC. Israel's already tried to grab a buffer zone in Lebanon multiple times. Got driven out in 2000 with tail well and truly between legs. Would be a lot more difficult now as they could rely on having some support from the SLA then, but they're all dead (as traitors, even their fellow Christians hated them as Quislings, or in Israel) and even the Kataeb/ Phalange fascists Sharon got to do the Sabra and Shatila massacre hate them now. And then there was 2006... Far better to sit back and blow up civilians with impunity while Starmer, Scholtz and Genocide Joe feign concern and wonder why the rest of the world thinks they're gigantic hypocrites. Funniest Hasbara take is that there are Lebanese cheering Israel on. The lasting effect of Israel's intervention in the Lebanese CW is that everyone hates them there when previous they at least had some sympathy from some of the Christians. Some, like the aforementioned Kataeb, just hate Hezbollah too.

I suspect the minuteman thing may also work better for americans, since it's their history. (For those outside the US the other Minutemen may actually be better known than the militia, which would at least bring irony to the situation)

I'd agree, if the hate speech laws weren't being abused. The above is almost certainly a response not to hate speech laws, per se, but the attempts to go after SM for publishing 'hate speech' that is defined primarily to suppress dissent.

Well... the minutemen thing kind of makes sense from a role playing/ character pov along with the settlements in terms of you 'refounding the US' amid the Fallout theme of hyper nationalism, especially for someone who has been frozen from pre apocalypse rather than brought up post so might realistically have bought into that hypernationalism. Same for looking for jr too really, you are told you care rather than being made to; but logically you would. I won't defend it any more than that since pretty much only the base idea is fine, the implementation is definitely typical Bethesda.

I'm not even sure that's a genuine change at all, as opposed to clarifying already existing policy. It's not like in an attack by NATO but with no overt US/ UK/ French involvement you could rules lawyer Russia out of a nuclear response based on the attackers being 'non nuclear' and only supported by the nuclear ones with or without the change. Haha you can't take blood hi-5 haha gottem might work in the Merchant of Venice; not so much in geopolitics. Even if it were a shift they'd still be a degree or two shy of, well, existing US policy. That despite Biden making a 2020 election pledge to change it.

Skeptical? Haven't read that article in particular but the one I did read was embarrassing and assumed everyone reading it was an idiot. Russia has no reason to use Chinese spy satellites, and all the Ukrainian NPPs are soviet designs so they have the blueprints. What Russia will almost certainly do is hit the grid around the NPPs since they're about the only bulk generation Ukraine has left at this point, which Zelensky will then claim as a nuclear attack. Zelensky's victory plan is almost certainly to get approval to hit military targets inside Russia with NATO weapons- and then hit the Kremlin with them to provoke a response that gets NATO directly involved. That's about the only path to victory Ukraine has.

IIRC the expectation is that less massive stars have planets orbiting proportionately closer, eg a lot of red dwarfs have detected planets with years of only a few Earth days and are closer to their sun than Mercury is to ours, so the disruption for a smaller intruder is not as disproportionate as might be expected. Unless the difference is really large and the passage very close. I'd suspect it being part of the same stellar association is unlikely* solely on principle, but that's about as far from a solid conclusion as it's possible to get. It'd certainly be tempting to think that the spate of big planetary scale collisions that happened ~4bn years ago were caused by an intruder. That's whatever knocked Uranus over onto its side, Theia's putative collision with Earth and some people are pretty confident Venus had a large collision as well to explain why its rotation is odd- and its greenhouse effect/ weird volcanism; with it at one point even having a roughly Lunar equivalent moon. They may well have all been 'natural', though the explanations are not incompatible with an intruder, ie something perturbed Theia but it doesn't have to be Venus/ Jupiter doing it and if it were them they may have themselves been perturbed first. It's all complicated too by planetary orbits changing 'naturally' over astronomical timescales... *kind of by definition stars in stellar associations tend to drift apart rather than together over astronomical timespans.

That explanation has been around a while as an alternative to PlanetX (as was, definitely not dead) or Nemesis (red/ brown dwarf solar companion; would also explain apparent mass extinction periodicity) hypotheses. Those both work theoretically, but neither has been found and for Nemesis at least that's getting to be a real problem. The attraction of something extra solar doing it is that you wouldn't expect to find anything, just its effects.

It was likely a compromised shipment rather than a compromised model per se. Definitely not in widespread usage, most 'normal' people would just use cellphones which are pretty much ubiquitous in Lebanon (1 phone per 1.15 people). Though the most obvious other group using them (apart from drug cartels maybe) would be medical staff. Even if there were collateral damage it's not like Israel would care though. Or if Israel cared Netanyahu wouldn't. Doesn't need to be more complicated than a remote detonator. Ultimately the trouble with radios is that they have to send and receive signals; if you have a detonator receiver disguised as a genuine component it's got natural cover. Israel has targeted pretty much every solar panel in Gaza. If nothing else it's a tacit threat to take out Lebanon's energy grid (such as it is...) and leave Hezbollah in the dark. It will be... 'interesting' to see how countries react if Israel does target the energy grid given reactions in Ukraine. It was crickets when they hit the power plant at Hodeida the previous time the Houthis hit them. OK, about as interesting as Israel targeting the water supply, the food supply, medical facilities, educational facilities, civilian buildings, refugee camps, medical staff, aid convoys, UN staff and UN facilities, and their energy grid, plus all the torture and other abuse of prisoners including rape and summary executions, no doubt.