Bartimaeus

Vladimir Putin planning on retiring next year? ...Might be total BS, difficult to say. NY Post is a total rag, but interesting timing coinciding with Trump's presidential loss.

Fox News' internal polling and projection models are among the best in the business - everything else, not so much. I think their projection of Arizona probably stays correct, but it was premature.

Maybe depends on whether the stress has caused him to completely lose his marbles by then...

It might not be called by tonight, but it should be for sure by tomorrow if not. If yesterday looked 95% like Biden, it is 99% right now with Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada all but his (and still likely but not certainly Arizona). I could see a network calling it tonight in order to get a head-start on everyone else when it seems so certain. Relatedly, the second Georgian senate race has been officially called to go to run-off. Two Georgian senate elections in January!

I think they're waiting to see it get closer before they do so, because they'd prefer to avoid having to retract it and then re-call it for Biden in the event it does stay for him. Unlike Nevada, Georgia, or Pennsylvania, the analysts I'm following don't seem to have a good grip on where the remaining votes from Arizona are or by what method they were voted for, both of which would help suggest which way they'll lean towards, so there's a lot of uncertainty. Biden might easily be called safe if a big batch comes in and favors him heavily, or it could just as easily become a nail-biter. I don't think Arizona will ultimately matter - Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are likely to go Biden, rendering it moot...and Biden only needs Nevada + either of the other two to officially win it.

Last I checked, they still have about 100k outstanding ballots, but they're expected to about break even overall (maybe mildly lead one or the other way, but not enough to change anything even if it's Trump), and analysts have suggested that it is just about callable at this point. However, Fox made an error in calling Arizona so early (even if the state ultimately does still stay Biden), because now if they call Nevada for Biden, they would reach that 270 number (and be the first to do so) when there is still genuine uncertainty about where Arizona ends up. In other news, Senator Perdue of Georgia has fallen under 50% in his re-election bid, and it's likely to stay that way, forcing a double senatorial run-off (i.e. another election) to decide the Senate majority. It is anyone's guess as to how those two races might go with Trump off the ballot while also having them deciding the Senate. The Senate is more or less officially still in play here. A double victory would prove instrumental for the Democrats, for it would allow them to decide what is or isn't voted on in the Senate, as opposed to Mitch McConnell doing his thing in not allowing anything to be voted for.

PA is the thing that seals Trump's doom, and all the analysts still believe it is likely to go to Biden, but there is still a two point gap, and networks are likely waiting for Biden to at least take the lead before they call it - for optics' sake, if nothing else. Nevada and Georgia/Arizona would do it as well, but while the strong feeling is that Nevada will stay Biden, Arizona and Georgia are both too close to strongly say one way or the other, hence the delay.

There is no need for them to join. Once 270 has been breached, then the remaining states that did not join do not matter, as all the states that did join will give their 270 votes to the winner of the popular vote while completely ignoring their own individual results. That's the entire idea. So once all reliably blue states have joined, you only need just *one* swing state to join as well, such as Pennslyvania or Georgia, to breach that 270 number. It might take a strong blue wave year for it to happen (with no corresponding red wave), but it probably will sooner or later.

Florida, Texas, and Ohio do not matter whether or not it is accepted, except that if they adopted it, it would make it take effect that much faster. I wrote a breakdown of it earlier in the thread, but once the rest of the reliably blue states join it, effectively only one swing state (such as Pennsylvania) needs to join before it is forcibly adopted and effective: It's still going to take time and is unlikely to be in effect by 2024, but 2028 and 2032 are realistic possibilities (although I'd say Democrats not getting control of the state legislatures they expected to this year probably will put it off for longer).

It will be a great boon to our election process if/when the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact goes into effect over the next decade or two.

All Democrats really needed to do was target Miami-Dade in Florida and shift the margins back to how much Clinton won them by and Biden would likely have Florida...and probably nobody would've even noticed. Amateur hour here, .

There's unlikely to be a call tonight after all, since Nevada changed its mind (again!) and decided to wait until tomorrow to finalize its results rather than release them in two batches. Arizona, which was called for Biden early by Fox, is tightening up and looks likely to get close, although it's difficult to say how exactly, so no final call there tonight either. Georgia looks increasingly likely to go to Biden (but ever so narrowly, possibly within a similar or even slimmer margin as Wisconsin did), while the analysts seem fairly certain Trump has lost Pennsylvania.

Colorado approves (on referendum) the electoral college-nullifying National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. They were already a part of it, but this confirms that it's here to stay. It is unlikely this compact will take effect by 2024, but 2028, perhaps 2032 are certainly realistic possibilities. Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia (all fairly reliably blue states, though subject to needing full Democrat control within a single election cycle) joining would take it up to 253 of the 270 required. At that point, one other state like Georgia, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania, or also Arizona + Nevada would end the electoral college, albeit pending court challenge.

Yeah, the idea of a "blue wave" was mocked earlier in the thread given how close it is, but the reality is that it really was a huge blue wave - it's just that there was also a pretty large red wave to counteract it, and Republicans have had the electoral vote advantage (relative to popular vote) for some time now. Biden winning by 5% will probably be like a 300 electoral vote victory - Trump winning by 5% would probably be closer to 400. Usually same kind of crap in the House, and it's literally many times worse in the Senate. Yeah, I'm giving Biden about a 95% chance here, between Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia as all being very realistic options to ice the race. It's not one hundred percent certain, but it's approaching. (e): Speaking of, the New York Times head election analyst (who was also spot on for Wisconsin and Michigan early on) now projects that Biden will win Pennsylvania by just about 2 points. Also considers both Nevada and Arizona very likely in Biden's column, and Georgia very narrowly leaning Biden. If Biden got all of them, he'd get 306 electoral votes...just two more than Trump got 4 years ago. That would be deliciously petty - only 305 would be better, .

Yeah, what the hell was that? Why would anyone vote against that? Wanted to look into why that happened.

Seems like the expectation is that Biden's final margin will be a bit more than the current ~3.5 million, though I'm not sure by how much more. Strongly doubt Trump wins Nevada, but we'll have a better idea tonight when they release a batch of the remaining votes (with the final tally supposed to come tomorrow). The expectation is that the overall race will be officially projected tonight after Nevada and Arizona get more of their last batches in, unless the numbers are unusually good for Trump (which nobody of any import seems to be expecting them to be), rendering PA and GA moot except for making sure faithless electors can't toss the race.

Michigan officially called for Biden. Expected to hold on to Nevada and Arizona based on where the remaining votes are, Georgia and Pennsylvania are still toss-ups with expected narrow Biden victories. However, Michigan being called for Biden means he officially just needs Nevada and Arizona, as that makes a perfect 270. Winning one or both of the others would surely help ensure a more peaceful transition, though.

It's really weird how one party whose leader specifically told everyone not to use mail-in ballots doesn't have as many mail-in ballots as the leader of the party who told everyone to use mail-in ballots. Can science really explain this phenomenon?

Though it looks like a few states will be outside of the margin of error, such as Wisconsin. It was definitely not a great polling cycle again (not laughably terrible, but notably off), it seems like there is...something not being accounted for in measuring Republican turnout.

People have been saying that there wasn't a "blue wave", but from what I can see and from what's likely to be the end total number of votes, there has actually been a huge one, larger than that of 2008. However, what's been unexpected is that there has also been a large red wave to counteract it as well (especially focused in key swing states). Not enough of one to win the presidency, but certainly to make it really freaking close in the electoral college. Wisconsin's Secretary of State has said they do not believe there are any more votes left to count. Even if there were errors (likely), past recounts have suggested that they'll likely change the results by maybe a few hundred, possibly as much as a thousand...not ten thousand-plus. Feeling pretty comfortable here in the presidential election. Still waiting on Maine and Georgia to truly call it for the Senate - I'd be very happy with a 50-50 split with a Democratic president. I do not want to have to see Mitch McConnell's despicable face for the next two years, and a 50-50 split would give them the ability to pass some of the most popular stuff, but not much more. ...But I think 49-51 looks more realistic at this point.

Well, I'm heading to bed. It looks fairly likely (but not certain) that Biden has won, and I can fall asleep soundly on that. God have mercy on our souls.

Refer to my signature...and then stick "forums.obsidian.net##.ipsType_light.ipsComment_ignored.ipsComment" in your uBlock filters, . (e): Biden ahead in Wisconsin right now, expectation seems to be that he'll win there, though it'll be close. Still awaiting a number of urban batches of votes in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If Biden does indeed win Wisconsin, then he only needs one of those three to clinch 270. (e): "This is vaguely reminiscent of 11 p.m. in 2016 ... but in reverse (and in slow motion): Biden’s the narrow favorite in PA, WI, MI, AZ, NV, GA, and it could take a while." (e): Also, one interesting thing about coverage of this - Fox, in my opinion, had the best coverage of any of the major networks (just in terms of quality of production), and oddly has been aggressively fair towards Biden, and has pre-emptively called multiple races for him (such as Arizona) that no-one else has while giving positive projections of remaining votes for him when he's been seemingly down big in states like Wisconsin. Not sure why, but they've refused to feed into Trump's narrative of cheating mail-in ballots or whatever such he's been squawking about.

Nah. I'll agree that they screwed him in a few different ways the first time, but they did not really screw him this time. They maneuvered against him, yeah, but the only reason he was ever projected to stand a chance of winning was because the field was so incredibly fractured between the moderates. If you can't win 50% of the vote in what was effectively a two man race, then that's your own electoral weakness. I guess Elizabeth Warren did stay in the race while every other moderate dropped out on the night before Super Tuesday which did sort of mildly screw him, but I really don't think it would've made much of a difference - Biden rocked him. Don't get me wrong, Bernie is 100% my guy, but he specifically campaigned on appealing to and turning out the youth vote, and they more or less completely ignored his existence. We get who we deserve, for better...for worse.

I have never understood it either - he personifies literally everything that is the opposite of what I'd consider to be charisma. Different strokes for different folks, I know, but what the actual hell?

Ha, yeah, that's almost literally the same exact CPU (just the weird Devil Canyon's "refresh" version of it). The 32 thread 5950X might, uh, be slightly better compared to either, . I am not looking to upgrade to something *quite* that ridiculous, probably more like a 5800X. ...Although the 5900X at MSRP is only $100 more for 50% more cores/threads, which is a ridiculous value, so it might just come down to actual prices at the time of purchasing.