Bartimaeus

Biden now up by about 0.75% in Pennsylvania, or a little over 50k votes. 0.5% is the margin for an automatic recount. Biden now up to a 14k margin in Georgia as well, and Arizona looks increasingly likely it'll stick to Biden as Trump misses the marks he needs as well as votes left to count. Courts have been throwing Trump's frivolous lawsuits left and right. 306 looking like Biden's number - the same "landslide" win Trump had back in 2016 (ignore that 20k votes decided Wisconsin, ~15k Georgia, and maybe 10k Arizona this election; and 11k Michigan, 20k Wisconsin, and 40k Pennsylvania in 2016).

Average polling errors in swing states this past election as per 538 (whoever is named is the one gained because of the error): Wisconsin - Trump +8 (2016: T+7) Iowa - T+7 (2016: T+6) Florida - T+6 (2016: T+1) Michigan - T+5 (2016: T+5) Texas - T+5 (2016: unknown) Ohio - T+5 (2016: T+5) New Hampshire - T+4 (2016: T+0) Maine - T+3 (2016: T+2) Pennsylvania - T+3 (2016: T+3) North Carolina - T+2 (2016: T+3) Nevada - T+2 (2016: C+3) Minnesota - T+2 (2016: T+5) Virginia - T+2 (2016: C+0) Arizona - T+2 (2016: C+0) New Mexico - T+1 (2016: C+3) Georgia - T+1 (2016: T+0) Colorado - Biden +1 (2016: C+2) ...In other words, don't trust Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and ESPECIALLY Wisconsin for the years to come, . Looks like a systematic underestimation of Trump to me, but mostly to mild/acceptable degrees outside of a particular handful.

You forgot to switch accounts, HoonDing, .

I wonder if there's any possibility of Barr facing some kind of criminal charge(s) for all the damage he's done to the DoJ. I hope so.

Fox called it on the night of the election, and I think the AP shortly after, and I don't believe either has rescinded it, but nobody else (such as ABC or the New York Times) have called it. At this point, it looks like he'll hold it, but it was close and when they called it really just made no sense based on the number of ballots left, where they came from, and their method. Lot of mail-in ballots - and unlike other states who are experimenting with mass mail-in-ballots for the first time, Arizona has had a history of using mail-in-ballots as a primary voting method for a while, which means it was less likely to be affected by Trump's constant screaming and whinging about mail-in-ballots being a fraudulent method of voting. Thus why they were much closer in terms of party affiliation versus other states - and on that note, a number of states kept track of which parties' members were requesting and returning mail-in-ballots and making those numbers public, so it was known in advance which party mail-in-ballots would likely favor on a state-by-state basis.

"data scientist who wishes to remain anonymous" lmao, think I'll rather listen to the various data scientists and analysts who do put their names behind their work, who called everything that would happen (Georgia and Wisconsin going down to the wire but with a slight Biden advantage, Pennsylvania and especially Michigan ultimately not being particularly close, Arizona being called too early, etc.) on the night of the election, aka before any of the things they expected had even the appearance of happening. There's a reason I was reasonably confident Biden would win (and where he would win) while everyone else was assuming and bemoaning Trump's victory.

Yeah, I don't give a crap about Trump, he's been defeated and there's no real sign that he's not going to leave office (voluntarily or otherwise). The second half of my post is what I'm worried about - the fact that such a clear and pathetic wannabe-dictator (even if it's purely for his own self-gratification and nothing else) has such a cult of personality and half of our population is just cool with it while gladly promoting his various forms of hatred and authoritarianism. It seems likely they're going to be looking for another to rally around (especially because he only just barely lost the election in this gamed electoral system), and the next one that comes along is likely to have much grander ideas and be a lot more competent. A 'true believer' is much more dangerous than whatever sorry mess Trump passed for. (edit): Identity politics suck. It's been a huge part of the Democrats' platform for a while, and it seems to be an increasingly large part of the Republicans' lately as well (in their own twisted way). Bernie Sanders was my guy for a reason, and that reason was that he talked about real issues pretty consistently while only paying lip service to garbage like identity politics. (...Also, I liked the way he handled gun control for a progressive, although he was admittedly forcibly pushed left of where he seemed he wanted to be in his 2020 run, which kind of sucked, but I can accept one little failing on the man, especially in the current political climate. Perfection is the enemy of God, after all, .)

There have certainly been presidents who have shifted us towards authoritarianism, some much more strongly than was warranted given the crises of the day, but to my knowledge, we have never had such a genuinely cult-like fervor for an openly autocratic leader that wished they were dictator, and whose millions of followers wished the same (and tens of millions of more who thought nothing much of it so long as they got what they wanted out of it - I can't help but think of parallels to the rise of Nazism in Germany). The next four years should help elucidate whether that was a momentary error, or the trend of something much more deeply frightening in our society - my money is on the latter. These kinds of moments don't usually occur in a vacuum or out of nowhere, even if they feel like they do at the time...and based on the ever increasing disparities between what people want or feel like they need, as well as life just generally not being as good, prosperous, and/or stable for most compared to decades past, I imagine it's only going to get worse.

306*? The same amount Trump earned, coincidentally? I think he lost a couple from faithless electors, so it officially went down as 304, but he earned 306.

Trump is the first president in over 150 years not to have any kind of pets (...animals that aren't humans, I mean, before anyone cracks any jokes) at the White House. There is apparently a widely held belief that Trump hates dogs (his frequent use of comparing people he doesn't like to them certainly does nothing to help dispel that), so at the very least, @Guard Dog should be happy to know that there will be canines in and at the White House once again, . Though I wonder...if Trump hated dogs, was it because dogs hated him?

**** Donald J. Trump, **** Melania Trump, **** Donald Trump Jr., **** Eric Trump, **** Jared Kushner, **** Ivanka Trump, **** Mike Pence, **** William Barr, **** Louis DeJoy, **** Betsy Devos, **** Rudy Giuliani, **** Mike Pompeo, **** KellyAnne Conway, **** Steven Mnuchin, **** Stephen Miller, **** Mike Meadows, **** Andrew Wheeler, **** Gina Haspel, **** Kayleigh McEnany, **** Wilbur Ross, and every other piece of ****, past and present, from this corrupt, incompetent, racist, sexist, fascist, or otherwise generically horrid basket of deplorables of an administration. Place yourselves directly into your nearest dumpster and go straight to hell.

Amen. Sounds like a plan.

for anyone who has no clue who the above person is (like me): https://the-boys.fandom.com/wiki/Homelander

The United States of America's next president, folks: he'll be 82 by the end of his first term, lmao

Didn't seem to change anything for Florida, who does count their ballots early and where Biden was a mild polling favorite.

Anyone remember Trump voters' motto and taunt to liberals after he won back in 2016? With their increasingly pathetic (and completely unsubstantiated) claims and crying of cheating and voter fraud, it's hard for it not to come to mind...

Biden officially takes the lead in Georgia (+1000 or thereabouts right now, likely to grow at least a little). Donald Trump...

Uh...maybe? It sure sounds related!

Vladimir Putin planning on retiring next year? ...Might be total BS, difficult to say. NY Post is a total rag, but interesting timing coinciding with Trump's presidential loss.

Fox News' internal polling and projection models are among the best in the business - everything else, not so much. I think their projection of Arizona probably stays correct, but it was premature.

Maybe depends on whether the stress has caused him to completely lose his marbles by then...

It might not be called by tonight, but it should be for sure by tomorrow if not. If yesterday looked 95% like Biden, it is 99% right now with Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada all but his (and still likely but not certainly Arizona). I could see a network calling it tonight in order to get a head-start on everyone else when it seems so certain. Relatedly, the second Georgian senate race has been officially called to go to run-off. Two Georgian senate elections in January!

I think they're waiting to see it get closer before they do so, because they'd prefer to avoid having to retract it and then re-call it for Biden in the event it does stay for him. Unlike Nevada, Georgia, or Pennsylvania, the analysts I'm following don't seem to have a good grip on where the remaining votes from Arizona are or by what method they were voted for, both of which would help suggest which way they'll lean towards, so there's a lot of uncertainty. Biden might easily be called safe if a big batch comes in and favors him heavily, or it could just as easily become a nail-biter. I don't think Arizona will ultimately matter - Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are likely to go Biden, rendering it moot...and Biden only needs Nevada + either of the other two to officially win it.

Last I checked, they still have about 100k outstanding ballots, but they're expected to about break even overall (maybe mildly lead one or the other way, but not enough to change anything even if it's Trump), and analysts have suggested that it is just about callable at this point. However, Fox made an error in calling Arizona so early (even if the state ultimately does still stay Biden), because now if they call Nevada for Biden, they would reach that 270 number (and be the first to do so) when there is still genuine uncertainty about where Arizona ends up. In other news, Senator Perdue of Georgia has fallen under 50% in his re-election bid, and it's likely to stay that way, forcing a double senatorial run-off (i.e. another election) to decide the Senate majority. It is anyone's guess as to how those two races might go with Trump off the ballot while also having them deciding the Senate. The Senate is more or less officially still in play here. A double victory would prove instrumental for the Democrats, for it would allow them to decide what is or isn't voted on in the Senate, as opposed to Mitch McConnell doing his thing in not allowing anything to be voted for.

PA is the thing that seals Trump's doom, and all the analysts still believe it is likely to go to Biden, but there is still a two point gap, and networks are likely waiting for Biden to at least take the lead before they call it - for optics' sake, if nothing else. Nevada and Georgia/Arizona would do it as well, but while the strong feeling is that Nevada will stay Biden, Arizona and Georgia are both too close to strongly say one way or the other, hence the delay.