Mamoulian War

In Slovak newspaper, it was reported, that Moscow municipal officials followed the suit of the St. Petersburg, and demand Putin removed from his position.

It is unclear for me, from what I read, where there are deployed, and if they were already deployed in UA. Every source, which I’ve read is claiming, that they are undertrained. So if they would be deployed right now to Kharkiv Oblast, I think, they might have higher casualty rate, than the 1st and 2nd LPR/DPR Corpse around Bakhmut and Soledar in last 2 months. We’ll see. Anyway, UA hit tonight Russian base in Velikiy Burluk (part of GLOC between Belgorod and Kupyansk), which is on the way to Kupiansk, so they probably already reduced at least one “wing” of reinforcements on it’s way.

A reaction worth of GeromanAT on Twitter

There are reports of big columns from Belgorod going toward Kupiansk. Other than that, the usual Russian reaction was one destroyed kindergarten in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and one shelled hospital in Sumy Oblast…

A short summary of situation in Kharkiv Oblast

They’ve been subpoenaed for discrediting the Russian army already https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-putin-treason-lawmakers/32025878.html

Nah, why would they, according to Putin, they lost nothing in the Ukraine since February

Russian milbloggers already proposing to retreat from Izyum as soon as possible, and defend behind the Oskil reservoir. Looks like their advices fall on deaf ears so far. But, the longer they stay, the more PoWs will end up in UA custody. So hope their generals will do nothing for at least a dozen hours

I really wish your November “prediction” would be correct…

Wow, few minutes, after I finished to write the previous post, this jumped out on me… If this is true, Izyum Raion would be completely cut off from Russian GLOCs, with all of the soldiers inside (1st Guards Panzer Army, 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division, 4th Guards Tank Division, and probably more) … EDIT: Russia again at their propaganda’s best , showing a video, how they are bringing reinforcements by Mi-26 to Izyum and Kupyansk to stop UA offensive. They somehow forgot to cover the site of filming, so some guys connected the images from the broadcast and found out, that the track of “alleged reinforcements are just track of two vehicles moving from one helicopter to second one

It is rumoured, the commander of Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division eva uated from Izyum 2 days ago. Before the current counteroffensive, the approximate numbers of Russian military personel in close vicinity of Izyum was between 20-25 thousand. And today, it looks like, there are almost completely cut-off from GLOCs, and only one bridge is leading there (near the town of Oskil). The sitaution very similar to Kherson, with the exception, that this area has currently the least experienced Russian soldiers in whole Ukraine, and there is evidence, that they left some areas, including strategic ones, without proper defense. If I’d be one of the Russian Generals, I’ll be avoiding the proximity of windows and would remove tea from my menu in the foreseeable future… Also the UA army is according to some Russian milbloggers around 20-25kms north of Izyum, and we’ll probably see a siege of the city soon. @ComradeYellow should boast about the invincibility of the Russian army on this board more often. It seems, that as soon as he does it, UA kicks them out of bigger and bigger part of Ukraine.

This week looks to be hard for collaborators in Kharkiv.

Since the start of “covert” mobilization in St. Petersburg, the relationship between Kremlin and local municipiality spiraled a lot downwards. Putin had some not so nice words against the mayor, for “undermining” the recruitment efforts few weeks ago.

Atelier Sophie 2 for PS4. Could not resist the 20% discount on Amazon, after the game was sold out for more than a month

I see a big difference between situation in Yugoslavia and Ukraine. Russia has been most of the time killing civilians in a cities with dominant Russian population, which was not the case for Serbia. Mariupol and Kharkiv being a prime examples of that. Then you have all of the reports, how Russians and especially Wagnerites recruited in Russian prisons are behaving towards civilians in occupied cities. A lot of ethnic Russians are because of that hating on Putin’sRussia, and are fighting on the side of Ukraine against Russia, or are just rooting for Ukraine to win. All of that just because they have experienced the “Russian World” firsthand. The Ukrainian boy, which we have “addopted” with my wife is from this cathegory, he was Russian speaking boy, from Russian speaking family from Kiyv. After he spent with his family a week in underground shelter and emigrated with his mother (which is already back in Kiyv), he does not want to have anything with Russia anymore. The most interesting thing is, that same is happening in Kazakhstan. Most of the Russian speaking Kazakhs have started to learn Kazakh language en masse after February 24th, so they can distance from Putin’s Russia as far as possible, and hope that this will help them to not end up “liberated” in the future.

Chilloutman already linked the article, which I found few minutes ago. There is still chance, although miniscule, that the Ukraine would not need to push them out at all. We’ll probably see very soon, if this gains any traction, or there will be a big tea party in St. Petersburg…

And here is the video of former DNR commander Girkin, where he states, that Russia already lost the war: Maybe @bugarup can do some translations for you, if he has spare time (if I understood it correctly, that you are fluent in Russian language)

@Darkpriest and all other, worried about EU situation in winter. I offer you a "little" counter to the ZeroHedge arguments, about how bad the winter will be. The hard data suggests, that the winter gas issue for the EU was already solved on August 31. And even in the case, that EU will not try to save the gas usage at all and Russia will completely stop all gas exports to EU It will cost a lot, but the funny interesting thing, that I did not knew is, that current gas price in EU is only 40% higher than in September 2021, and that we are 20% lower today from the maximum price in mid-August https://www.facebook.com/databezpatosu The google translate: "HORROR, SCARY, DISASTER, PANIC, ANXIETY, CRISIS (written by Ivan Bošňák) ️We had it here for the last 2 years and it was called a pandemic. Absolutely negative connotations everywhere (except Sweden). Politicians took the helm and "saved" us. ️ Then came the economic crisis, predictions of the unemployed, declines, recessions and bankruptcies everywhere. Politicians printed incredible amounts of money on the machines at the ECB and were very surprised when inflation soared in a way that only their parents can remember. ️Now we have Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the lack of energy and the madness continues, while few see the solutions and almost no one reads the data. We will try to bring some peace into your homes. We offer 2 links to read excellent analytical articles and charts: https://www.icis.com/explore/ and https://www.bruegel.org/ No, the war in Ukraine is not to blame for high energy prices. Russia has been playing with the price of gas for 3 years, if not 12, and thus a year ago the price of gas was only 40% lower. And it wasn't a war. The fluctuating gas supplies from Russia and its unreliability have mainly been dealt with by the EU over the past 12 months: 1) From dominance of 35%, Russia got to 10% share of gas imports to the EU 2) In Germany, the Gazprom reservoir with a capacity of 8 billion m3 was nationalized, and instead of being "empty" last winter, there are now 5 billion m3 and in the near future it will be full to 8 billion m3 3) There are already almost 90 billion m3 in reservoirs in the EU (and we have been hearing this for 6 months about continuous problems with gas from Russia). Very likely, thanks to the warm weather, the EU will reach close to 100 billion m3 within 4-5 weeks, and maybe even fill up to a maximum of 106 billion m3 in October. The EU has set a goal of filling the reservoirs to 80% by November 1. Without fanfare, this goal was met on August 31. Germany later set a 95% target for November 1st and that would push all of Europe to 84% by November 1st. We will be there this weekend and not on November 1st. It is a super success despite the lousy Russian gas supplies. You can find detailed data on the current situation of storage capacity on our website: https://databezpatosu.sk/category/zemny-plyn/ Today, Slovakia is 80% full and we are the leader in Europe, we have high stocks (status), but relatively low supplies (inflow). WHY IS NOBODY REPORTING SUCCESS? Politicians love when they can save people and spend their money on it in good faith and regulate everything possible that they would not be allowed to do in normal stable times. Just look at the nonsense about the nationalization of SE in our country. They don't understand data, they don't understand trends, but they embark on adventures that inevitably end badly. WHERE IS THE PRICE OF GAS TODAY Of course, the price of gas is crazy. These are spot prices, but also future deliveries in the short future. We are 40% higher than last September, and in mid-August this year we were 11-15 times higher than before Covid. But NO ONE told us and you that we are 20% lower TODAY from the maximum price in mid-August and the price is literally flying down, also due to the falling price of oil. Today Brent was at USD 78, which is a decrease of 35% compared to the maximum in June at USD 120. Let's keep our fingers crossed. WINTER FORECAST Large analytical houses can predict, based on averages from previous years, what awaits us from October to April: - in 2 quarters we will need 300 billion m3 of gas if we do not save. The savings targets in the EU are 10% to 15%. - the EU can produce or deliver a total of 1 billion m3 of gas from Norway and Algeria per day via LNG. That is 180-200 billion in 2 quarters. - If we add 100 billion in reservoirs to the supply of 200 billion, we get exactly 300 billion in consumption. Yes: with no savings, no increase in deliveries, zero deliveries from Russia and an average winter, it still comes out to ZERO - ZERO. On April 1, we will have approximately 1 billion deliveries per day, but if it's cold, then a little more demand, but if it's already warm, then a little less consumption. And that's assuming: - nothing is saved - nothing will flow from Russia from today - nothing will be increased in deliveries compared to contracts - the winter will be quite decently cold Every single day, already in "warm" September, we "cut" a meter of the winter period (maximum 8 months: September-April). And as you can see, we still have a joker in the EU and it's warm, and Black Peter is owned by Russia and Putin. It is also true that Russia supplies to the EU via Turkstream and Transgas, and it certainly won't shut down at least Hungary, about 60-80 million. m3 per day. That is 1 billion m3 per month and 10 billion by the end of May 2023, which the above calculations did not include. CONCLUSION: It would be useful to track the weekly data: - filling reservoirs to the 106 billion maximum - balance: supplies - consumption in Europe, where there is now a surplus of about 2-3 billion per week and it's storage tanks - when the weather will turn and we will start cleaning the surplus of 2-3 billion per week in households and in institutions - the price of gas, which can follow oil "DOWN". A drop in price together with a decrease in the volume of deliveries from Russia would help the EU to finance consumption with lower finances and would also significantly reduce Russia's income from gas exports to Europe. With high gas supplies last year and this year and with a high price, Russia's maximum earnings were at the level of 5 billion per week just from gas to the EU. Today, with deliveries reduced to 1/4 and at a price 25% lower, the amount is 1 billion per week. It already hurts, because it was 4 billion Euros more. But that was the maximum. Anyway, we wrote down about 7 good news and 1 big risk: hard, cold, early and long winter. Today we know that it will not start in the next 14 days. And that's good news, friends. If you want and know how to support the work on our reports, you can do so at: https://www.patreon.com/databezpatosu Source for chart and data: https://gas.kyos.com/gas/ Our overview of the state of reservoirs in Europe and Slovakia: https://databezpatosu.sk/2022/08/29/plyn-aktualne-statistiky-k-zasobe-kapacite-zasobnikov-a-rocnej-spotrebe/ Gas prices on world exchanges: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas"

And someone translated one of the Girkin’s/Strelkov’s recent Tweets in the wake of the Kharkiv Oblast situation

A brief summary of what I was talking about few post above on what happened during the last day and half in Kharkiv region… Ukraine took more area in a single day, than Russia since the fall of Lysychansk…

Explanation of the announced mobilization of women in Ukraine, which we were talking about few days ago.

During this push deep into Kharkiv Oblast, UA army captured Lieutenant Colonel of Russian army

In the meanwhile, while Russia sent their best Spetznas and VDV to western Kherson Oblast, UA army started another offensive in Kharkhiv Oblast and in little bit more than 24 hours, they moved more than 20km deep into Russian occupied territories and removed Russian soldiers with heavy losses from 7 settlements between Balaklia and Shevchenkove, probably trying to completely cut-off Izyum from all Russian GLOCs… The push still continues, with first reports, that they moved 5 kms further to the northwest, and are approx. 10kms away from Shevchenkove. EDIT: more liberated towns in Northern Kherson Oblast officially reported today as well.

The funny thing is, that this video made a pretty big outrage in Russia, because there are still some areas in Siberia without gas pipelines, which Putin graciously promised years ago to build, and in 2020, quietly abandoning that promise. Which means, that a lot of Siberian cities are actually living through every winter, what they see in that particular video

It is more prevalent ex-soviet puppet states. Slovakia and Bulgaria are still heavily influenced by Russian Propaganda, and a lot of FSB officers are/were working on embasies in our countries. In the western europe, I think Italy might be influenced by this propaganda more than other western countries. But for that, it would be best to read it from someone living in Italy. I have it only from newspaper, which I read.