kgambit
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Everything posted by kgambit
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Hoping to fall to the Lakers?
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I'll be SHOCKED if Embiid falls past #4. The word is that the 76ers grab him at #3 so Nerlen Noels has someone to keep him company in the hospital.
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Wiggins #1 but I would have taken Parker. I'm curious to see how far Embiid falls and who takes Dante Exum.
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Basically a cap clearing move for the Mavs, but giving up Larkin is tough. Chandler has one year left at $14.5 million, and Felton has one year at $3.8 million. Calderon still has three years left on his 4 yr, 28 million $ deal. The Houston Rockets have a trade in place - Asik and cash to the Pelicans for a protected #1 in 2015. That pick will likely get moved. The Rockets apparently have a trade in place to move Jeremy Lin as well.
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There's a possible trade between Cleveland and Orlando - The Magic send Aaron Affalo and their #4 and #12 picks for Cleveland's #1 pick. Not a bad deal actually. Cleveland could grab Julius Randle at #4 and Aaron Gordon at SF with #12.
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Agreed.
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Great header by Ruiz.
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In no particular order: The Americans - Season 1 - Awesome show about Russian sleeper agents in the US. It's what Homeland could have been. Just finished Season 1 and can't wait for season 2. Orphan Black - Season 1 - Clones! How Tatiana Maslany can keep all those characters straight is amazing. Finished Season 1 - season 2 should be out in a month or so. True Blood - Season 6 - After watching the show jump the shark in Season 5, Season 6 got things back on track. Definite improvement. If season 6 had been as bad as season 5, I would have given up on the show completely. The Following Season 1 - James Purefoy is amazing as serial killer Joe Carroll. Kevin Bacon is equally good as Ryan Hardy the FBI agent in pursuit of Carroll. Outstanding show.
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Just a bit more on Russian infrastructure costs: There have been several proposed Russia-Chinese gas pipelines. The Altai pipeline was originally planned to connect to Western Siberia gas supplies. The Russian segment of Altai is 2,666 kilometres of the total 2800 kilometers. The original cost of 14 billion dollars was based on completion of construction in 2011 so that figure is likely underestimated at current costs. The Altai pipeline had a proposed capacity of 30 bcm/year so it would need to be upscaled to handle the necessary 38 bcm/yr or a second pipeline would need to be added. However the Chinese prefer an Eastern Siberian gas supply as they feel they can use other Asian gas supplies to supplement gas needs for the WEP. The second pipeline "the Power of Siberia" (LOL) or YKV (Yakutia-Khabarovsk–Vladivostok) measures a total of 3200 kilometers with an additional 800 kilometer spur. The pipeline will be feed from the Chayanda oil and gas field in Yakutia and will also connect to the Sakhalin–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok pipeline. The proposed pipeline would have a capacity of 61 bcm/year . The total cost for pipeline, field development infrastructure necessary to meet production/delivery goals and a LNG plant would reach an estimated 35 billion dollars. The majority of the pipeline would be upgrades and additions to existing Russian pipeline infrastructure. There might be other projects as well.
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Oh please bro. If one was going to examine the deal properly you would have gotten the dollar amount right in the first place. lol But since you want to get really detailed, delivery tariffs aren't accounted for in my simple comparison because they don't make a huge difference in base pricing. But if I omit them you'll cry foul. For example, Ukraine received from Russia a payment of $1.09 / 1000 cubic meters per 100km for transport of gas thru Ukraine pipelines to the EU. Applying that tariff to the 1222km Nord Stream pipeline generates ~13$ per kcm or roughly 3.5% of the total average 383$/kcm the EU paid. The seller is responsible for delivery charges so the tariffs come off the Russian price. Gazprom recoups ~15% of those costs by virtue of having a 51% share of the 30% held by shareholders (banks hold the other 70%). The net revenue lost to Russia from tariffs is reduced from 13$ per kcm to 11$ kcm so the net price paid to the Russians is 372$. What about infrastructure? Nord Stream cost ~14.8 Euros of which the shareholders paid 30% (Banks financed the other 70%). Since Gazprom holds a 51% share of the shareholders holdings, that makes the Russian share of infrastructure costs roughly 3 billion $. The Nord Stream contracts (at least the ones I could track down) call for deliveries to various countries of ~ 18.1 billion cubic meters per year for up to 25 years. That works out to another 6.6$ per kcm sunk costs. Subtracting that from the 372$ per kcm we get ~365.5$/kcm as the net Russian gas price. That's still better than the 350$ the Russians are getting from the Chinese and that's before adjustment for Russian infrastructure costs in the China deal. Now the Chinese deal works out to ~ 50 to 70 billion $ of sunk costs for 38 bcm per year for 30 years. Given that those estimates include both pipelines and field development they don't seem unreasonable to me. That's the equivalent of 2 or 3 Nord Streams plus in field development. At any rate, the 350$/ kcm that the Chinese are paying actually works out to something closer to 310$ per kcm. YMMV. You're welcome to repeat that exercise with another pipeline if you want. I chose Nord Stream because it was one I was familiar with. It was a recent build so its costs should be at least reasonably accurate. The structure of the Russia- China deal is (a) the Russians sell their gas to the Chinese at a discounted price compared to the EU price and (b) the Russians have to pay for their own infrastructure costs for both additional development costs and pipeline construction to the Chinese border. I didn't arbitrarily make up those infrastructure costs and including them to figure a net price is fair game. Multiple industry sources including the Washington Post gave a range of 50 to 70 billion $ for Russian pipeline and redevelopment costs associated with the project. I simply used the lowest $ figure of that range. Regardless of whether you believe 50 billion or 70 billion or even something lower, those infrastructure costs are a part of the asterisking deal. I repeat that imo, the Russians got a bad deal price wise.. Maybe having an alternate outlet for their gas was worth the lost revenue but its not a good deal on price basis only which was my point. Given that the Chinese deal of 38 bcm/year is a drop in the bucket compared to the EU's 500+ bcm/yr it's hard to figure what real diversification is gained but opening another growing market is valuable. You are right about the Chinese infrastructure costs. China certainly has to pay for pipeline costs from the Russian border to their hubs which will raise their costs too. And I don't care. Frankly I overlooked their costs because I was looking at this primarily from the standpoint of how badly the Russians got hosed on the price they got. It's true that China did get a discounted price compared to the EU. But they are paying a premium compared to other Asian suppliers. And yes their pipeline costs will make it more expensive. It's also true that the Chinese don't have to worry about Russian field development sunk costs - they aren't responsible for subsidizing them in the deal. Again the infrastructure costs for them are only related to pipeline construction. The Chinese have always shown a tendency to pay above market if necessary to insure energy supplies. That's why their pricing structure isn't a concern for me. If you want to claim they got hosed, do some math on their projected costs after adjusting for pipeline builds. I can't be arsed to bother with it. The other fly in the ointment for the Chinese is how their other suppliers will look at them paying the Russians a higher price for Russian gas than they pay for Asian gas. But that's a Chinese issue and it's not a Russian concern. Maybe China was willing to pay a higher price than they could have gotten from Asian suppliers because of the size of the deal and the ability to diversify their deliveries (a lesson the EU should have learned a while ago). I'm simply not concerned about what the Chinese are paying. Do you honestly believe that the Chinese agreed to this deal at the 350$/ kcm price without Russia absorbing Russian infrastructure costs when China has the option to obtain gas thru Asian suppliers at lower costs? Seriously? The bulk price the Russians gave Ukraine was a bad price deal for the Russians as well: even worse than this one actually. Even if you ignore all infrastructure costs and tariffs in the Chinese deal and just compare the base prices its a bad deal. If they want to discount their gas, it's their business but that doesn't make it good economics or a good price. On another note: It's nice to see that you can't argue a point without trying to deflect the discussion - exactly like Mor says you do. I'm not sure what the Ukrainian constitution has to do with a discussion of a China-Russia gas deal but thanks for proving his point. LOL
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How many years have you spent working in oil and gas industry bro? I'm guessing zero ........ Infrastructure costs are NOT questionable except in your apologist's view of the deal. Wake up. Most of those costs are for developing Russian gas fields - I'll be asterisked if the Chinese are paying THOSE costs. lol Chinese infrastructure costs are an internal Chinese matter. None of that cash finds it's way into Russian hands so it doesn't affect the price the Russians get - it does affect what China's actual cost is. Seriously bro where DID you study finances and economics? Actually 50 billion is a low ball figure according to the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/china-russia-sign-400-billion-gas-deal/2014/05/21/364e9e74-e0de-11e3-8dcc-d6b7fede081a_story.html And based on this graphic, we're not talking about a lot of pipeline either. So my educated guess is that the majority of that 70 billion dollar infrastructure cost is going to charged against development. FFS you didn't even know the actual cost of the deal and now you claim to understand the mechanics of it? LOL Yeah try again. PS: Some of the gas destined for China is likely coming from the joint Gazprom - RDS joint venture on Sakhalin.
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Actually it was a 400 billion dollar deal spanning 30 years. It included approximately 50 to 70 billion dollars of infrastructure improvements including a new gas line to the Chinese border. Media estimates put the gas price on the deal at 350$ / 1000 cubic meters which is about 10% lower than the nominal price the Russians charge the EU (~380$). It's not clear if the Chinese are required to make an advanced payment on the deal. The Chinese got a pretty good deal. Edit: I think the gas price the media quotes (350$ / 1000 cubic meters) is probably overstated by about 10% - 400 billion dollars less 50 billion infrastructure charges (could be as high as 70 billion) is 350 billion dollars for 38 billion cubic meters per year for 30 years - that works out to ~310$/ 1000 cubic feet That's a GREAT deal - for the Chinese. Not so much for the Russians.
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Now 4-1 as Casillas makes a horrible mistake and gift wraps one for van Persie
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Europa Universalis IV v1.6.1 @Raithe - 10 hours of game play for Murdered Soul Suspect? If that's true, I'm giving it a pass.
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View from Hawksbill looking toward Table Rock and Shortoff Mountain at Linville Gorge
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The Book Thief - starring Geoffrey Rush Entertaining movie set in Germany circa WW2 - The basic plot is as follows (copied from IMDB) Really liked this - much better than I expected it to be.
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Almost guessed this one ....... http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2014/06/04/video-here-is-why-sheridan-voted-lebron-james-2nd-team-all-nba-2/ lol
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rotflmao http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/712602 http://en.ria.ru/russia/20111228/170534194.html
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Pompeii - with Keifer Sutherland, Carrie-Anne Moss (Trinity from the Matrix), Kit Harrington (Jon Snow from GoT) and Jarred Harris (Madmen and Fringe) Save your money - don't even bother renting it - total snoozer
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Expeditions: Conquistador is back on sale for 4.99$ (until June 2) if you missed the earlier sale.
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Fat Athletes With Wood - aka The Baseball 2014 Thread
kgambit replied to Keyrock's topic in Way Off-Topic
And five of those came when the team was still in Philadelphia. Judging by results, Beane is right. The "let's get lucky" approach hasn't worked. The A's last championship was in 1989 - several (8?) years before Billy Beane took over. -
Definitely an upgrade on the Harpoon graphics. Here's a link for the community scenarios for the game: http://www.warfaresims.com/?page_id=1876
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Spleen. ~~ Kidney. Bladder
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Here's the NBA constitution and Bylaws: http://mediacentral.nba.com/media/mediacentral/NBA-Constitution-and-By-Laws.pdf Article 13 sec A, Article 24 sec L and Article 35A Sec c and d seem to be the biggies It's probably Article 24 that they are hanging him on since it stipulates the max fine as 2.5 million$ whereas 35A sets it at a million. In essence, Sterling is accused of violating the "Best Interests of the League" clause.