NFL 2017-2018 Season

[Gfted1]

Did you read Shady's link?

 

 

 

...the finding that 99% of NFL players in the study had CTE should get people’s attention

 

Ah, I see your loophole, it was only 99% of those tested. What crazy misfortune that almost every single selection has it!

[Bartimaeus]

Yeah, that's not really how statistics works. As you just said, 99% of tested players - aka, guys or their families who felt pretty confident that they had it, enough so that they were inclined to donate their brain after they died for testing exactly that - had it. That's a pretty big selection bias. If there's a conclusion to be made there, it's probably more like if you played football and actually showed symptoms of the disease, you probably have it, especially if you and your family don't have a history of mental illness. I think it's pretty unlikely to be nearly that high among the general football population, but maybe it's that high for linemen, who knows? Without being able to test it on still alive players, it's hard to peg down exactly.

Edited August 31, 2017 by Bartimaeus

[ShadySands]

But it's mostly behavioral and mood symptoms that get worse over time so I can see how they'd mostly go unnoticed

 

 

85% of players with mild CTE had clinical symptoms that worsened over time, and 96% had behavioral and/or mood symptoms. About two thirds (67%) had symptoms of depression and just over half (52%) had anxiety symptoms. A majority also showed the following symptoms:

 

89% demonstrated impulsivity.

69% felt hopelessness.

67% had an explosive temper.

67% had substance use disorders.

63% were verbally abusive toward others.

56% experienced strong suicidal thoughts.

52% were physically violent.

 

The most common cause of death among those with mild CTE was suicide, the way more than a quarter of those players died. In addition, 85% of those with mild CTE had cognitive and thinking problems, including poor memory in 73%, difficulty with attention or focus in 69%, and executive function issues in 73%. Executive function involves a range of skills necessary for day-to-day life, including planning, organizing, time management, multi-tasking, maintaining focus, memory and self-control.

 

A lot of people already associate a lot of those (bolded and underlined) behaviors with football players

[Bartimaeus]

Yep. Like I said, we really don't know exactly had bad or widespread CTE really is, even now. It'd be insane if it was actually 99% of the football population, and I very sincerely hope it's not (and I don't think it is because of the huge selection bias of only looking at people who already thought they had it - I just don't know how valuable that statistic can be without looking at players who didn't think they had it...but you can't get their brains to look at if they or their family don't donate their brain, so...). Either way, though, given the awful consequences of head injuries in the NFL and at the collegiate level, the head honchos of this sport are almost certainly going to need to re-examine the way the game is played if they want it to continue being top dollar in the U.S. in the decades to come. I certainly don't want us to go back to baseball...or soccer. Eugh.

Edited August 31, 2017 by Bartimaeus

[Gfted1]

I do not agree that it will cause a dearth of talent. There will always be people willing to take the risks for the huge sums of money. I would do it right now if I were younger, talented, and physically fit!

[Bartimaeus]

I wouldn't - at least, not outside of a few of the "safer" positions like a punter or kicker, maybe long snapper with the (head) protections they're afforded today. There's little point in earning millions of dollars if your brain is in such bad shape that you're perpetually making terrible monetary decisions (what is it, somewhere around 70-80% of players are bankrupt within like three years of leaving the league?) or cannot think straight or act normally a decade after retiring. Your brain is your entire mortal existence: it's not worth selling to this bloodsport.

Edited August 31, 2017 by Bartimaeus

[ShadySands]

 I certainly don't want us to go back to baseball...or soccer. Eugh.

 

I'll never forget the advice I got from a couple of Super Bowl champs that I met at a card show. Play baseball.

[Bartimaeus]

Oh, yeah, if you're looking to play sports professionally, baseball (and basketball*) is definitely the way to go. Football is a pretty crappy deal compared to other sports, all things considered - the relative low amount of money, lack of guarantees, horrible injuries, short career - but it does employ some different body types than other sports do.

 

*Basketball has such tiny rosters, though, so your chances of ever making any decent money off of the sport is really low.

Edited August 31, 2017 by Bartimaeus

[Gfted1]

You would think every boxer to ever exist would be ate up with CTE. Maybe it happens more frequently to people already predisposed to dementia?

[Gromnir]

Professional football has been around since 1892. I feel confident that CTE is only "news" to us spectators, not the guys that have been playing the game their entire lives. 

 

you would be wrong.  we had a recent reunion with our college teammates, and we played football with a number o' guys who went on to the pros.  (actual, as hard as it is to believe, we played high school with 2 guys who eventual played nfl.) this is news, and is increasingly discussed by those who played.  the guys on the team who hit so hard they broke helmets were heroes back in the 80s.  today, most o' us look back and say, "how could we have been so stupid?" think 'bout it; the guys we played college football were already representing the top .05% athletic gifted people in the US.  in general, these were some o' the healthiest guys you would ever meet, and they exercised strenuous and regular for most o' their lives. our reunions is disturbing for the myriad health problems we display as a group.  beyond the expected orthopedic stuff, our reunion were marred by more than a couple missing suicides. folks with mental health problems and persistent/terrible headaches who showed at reunion told us o' the numerous folks who did not make it to the reunion and how the absent folks were often far worse off than any o' us present.

 

and yeah, we is honest to admit how if we were 20 years old today, chances are if we thought we had a real chance to play pro ball (we didn't btw), we would take the risks even knowing the future consequences... consequences we didn't fully realize at the time.  the thing is, at 48, such a choice has far different calculus.  most o' the guys we played with were the best-o'-the-best athletes in the nation.  no joke. they woulda' excelled at soccer or lacrosse or baseball or whatever.  chances is good most o' the guys we played with woulda' been able to get a scholarship to play any number o' sports if they coulda' gone back in time and started _______ when they instead started playing football.  at 48, the notion o' receiving a scholarship to Cal for soccer instead o' football has appeal we couldn't possible have comprehended at 20.  

 

even so, the new brain study stuff is news, and it is discussed. is a constant fear for any guy who played college or pro football and can't find the tv remote or his car keys a bit too frequent these days.  is craig's emerging temper issues a personality/character problem, or is he gonna end up like mike webster in 10 years? this stuff scares the p00p outta many nfl players, and more than a few college players, and is not something which were discussed much even back in the 90s. 

 

is not particular funny.

Edited August 31, 2017 by Gromnir

[Hurlshort]

It also sounds like the changes in the game since 1892 have actually worsened things. Particularly the helmet technology, which you would think would decrease risk, but has become more of a weapon on the line. We know how to train to make everyone faster and stronger than they were 100 years ago, but we know relatively little about the brain and how to treat injuries to it.

[Bartimaeus]

They are experimenting with softer helmets this year, somewhat spearheaded by the Seahawks. I hope they are successful, though players have to choose to wear them. Seahawks are also big teachers of rugby-style wrap-up tackling (and if "big hits" are illegalized in the near-future, the Seahawks will probably be the best equipped to immediately evolve past them, which will probably give them a bit of a competitive advantage for a couple of years assuming Pete Carroll is still head coach). I really don't think we'll notice that much of a difference in the game if big hits become illegal - the elimination of the three point-stance will probably have a much bigger effect on the game, and it's what's likely causing CTE in linemen.

Edited August 31, 2017 by Bartimaeus

[Gromnir]

as an aside, when Gromnir played, the big issue were pills: steroids and painkillers. abuse painkillers and chances o' a crippling injury increases.  fear were not being able to get out of bed w/o help by age 40.  on the other hand, steroids were potential killers... literal.  not only were steroids banned by the ncaa, but they were illegal and they had all kinda side effects.  suicide and inability to control rage were at the top o' the list.  death, albeit likely a eventuality to be confronted decades remote, were also a possibility for the steroid user. we never took steroids or abused painkillers precisely 'cause we knew we would never play nfl, but we likely would have done so if we thought we had a serious shot at being drafted by an nfl team.  

 

the brain injury stuff is different.  do everything right.  avoid pills. still you possible suffer brain injury.  back when we played, recurring concussions were something to be concerned 'bout, but a concussion were when you actual lost consciousness, yes?  concusions were something to laugh 'bout as long as the concussed player managed to get up off the turf.

 

 

*chuckle*

 

you really got your bell rung on that one, eh?

 

the thing is concussions weren't necessarily what we thought they were, and brain trauma clear occurs even w/o concussions. we delivered (and received) more than a couple (hundred) decleaters. we hit guys with the intent o' knocking 'em senseless. we received helmet stickers for particular brutal tackles. we were batman concussed once, but am unable to guess how many times we likely exposed self and others to brain trauma.  

 

we avoided all the stuff we were s'posed to avoid.  no painkillers other than tylenol. no steroids.  heck, we even avoided sleeping with the starting qbs girlfriend when the opportunity presented itself.  we thought we were being careful. we didn't know... not really.

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited August 31, 2017 by Gromnir

[Gfted1]

I was approaching it more from: "if the percentages were really that high, we should be able to visibly see hundreds of mentally diminished ex-players". But great points all around.

[Bartimaeus]

I was approaching it more from: "if the percentages were really that high, we should be able to visibly see hundreds of mentally diminished ex-players". But great points all around.

 

I mentioned it before, but: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias

[Bartimaeus]

The lead investigator of Elliot's case was the only person involved with the investigation to actually meet with the victim...and the lead investigator recommended no suspension for Elliot. So...all the other experts who didn't meet with the victim must've recommended that he be suspended, I guess?

[Volourn]

 "(what is it, somewhere around 70-80% of players are bankrupt within like three years of leaving the league?)"

 

What kind of made up magical make believe number pulled out of your ass was that?

 

 

 

"The lead investigator of Elliot's case was the only person involved with the investigation to actually meet with the victim...and the lead investigator recommended no suspension for Elliot. So...all the other experts who didn't meet with the victim must've recommended that he be suspended, I guess?"

 

L0L

[Keyrock]

The lead investigator of Elliot's case was the only person involved with the investigation to actually meet with the victim...and the lead investigator recommended no suspension for Elliot. So...all the other experts who didn't meet with the victim must've recommended that he be suspended, I guess?

Not only that, but said lead investigator, the only person who interviewed the accuser and found her testimony inconsistent and dubious enough to recommend no suspension for Zeke, wasn't even invited to the meeting where they decided on the suspension.

 

Anyone with their conspiracy theory tin foil hat on has alarm bells going off reading that. Honestly, even if you're not a conspiracy theorist, you have to find this pretty odd.

[Bartimaeus]

 "(what is it, somewhere around 70-80% of players are bankrupt within like three years of leaving the league?)"

 

What kind of made up magical make believe number pulled out of your ass was that?

 

https://blog.mint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/From-Stoked-to-Broke-Why-are-So-Many-Professional-Athletes-Going-Bankrupt.png

 

Well, I was close (78% of players within 5 years). However, interestingly, while not quite as bad as football (which is the worst of the major sports), good percentages of other sports' athletes go broke pretty quickly, too.

[Volourn]

 Well.. at least I know now where the magic numbers come from.  Still have my doubts about the % though. That just seems way too high. If that were the case we'd surely being hearing even more stories about broken athletes living in the poorhouse. If accurate, EPIC FAIL.

[Hurlshort]

The big thing to understand is they are probably rich person broke, which is different than what most of us face. If they can figure out a way to cut back on spending and live within their means, they should be fine. But a good chunk of players live like they are still making a million bucks every year.

[Bartimaeus]

Well, it says 78% of players actually "file for bankruptcy" within 5 years...I think that's actually pretty broke.

[Hurlshort]

Well, it says 78% of players actually "file for bankruptcy" within 5 years...I think that's actually pretty broke.

 

No, not really. Filing for bankruptcy is a great way to protect yourself from too much debt and overhead. You will lose assets, but if you are underwater on a lot of stuff, it is typically your best bet.

[Gromnir]

 

Well, it says 78% of players actually "file for bankruptcy" within 5 years...I think that's actually pretty broke.

 

No, not really. Filing for bankruptcy is a great way to protect yourself from too much debt and overhead. You will lose assets, but if you are underwater on a lot of stuff, it is typically your best bet.

 

it's a little worse than you s'pose.  the nflpa messed up, particular during the most recent cba.  the nfla demanded all kinds o' practical considerations which gave advantages to veteran players insofar as making money and keeping their jobs.  got rookie pay scales for first four years.  decrease practice times. changes to free agency. etc.  all seemed to benefit vets, and the very big and very public contracts seeming support such a conclusion.  well guess what? four years is longer than the typical nfl career, and something like 40% o' players is making the league minimum.  these guys burn through their cash like there is no tomorrow... and they discover 'bout three years later they got no nfl career, hardly any savings, and no real degree 'pon which to fall back 'pon.  thanks to the cba, the league has become increasing young-- opposite o' what the nflpa intended.  most folks in the nfl plays a handful o' years and then discovers how difficult it is with a middle-class (if they are lucky) job to pay for multiple italian sports cars and a mansion, or two... or three.  worse, these guys got too much pride to work as a manager at denny's, which is 'bout what their "kinesiology" *wink* degree from alabama or lsu is likely to get 'em after they quit playing.  in not rich person bankruptcy so much as guys living way too rich bankruptcy.

 

the nfl and nflpa gives multiple rookie seminars every year which educate players 'bout the realities o' their new careers.  the valuable information provided by the player's association and the league should be a wakeup call, but it clear isn't.  

 

as to the elliott investigator, you folks didn't read the comments from mr. harvey we provided 'bove.  he addressed the credibility issue o' the victim. is not as if her credibility issues were hidden from harvey, huston, lovelace davie, and white.  'ccording to the recent reports you folks is reading, the nfl investigator thought the evidence would be confusing and the victim's credibility would hurt. however, much like the lead investigator for ohio law enforcement who original investigated, those 4 individuals we mentioned 'bove accepted how the victim were untruthful 'bout an event, but still found her overall claim credible.  the meta data clear did not confuse the 4 folks reviewing.

 

people is selective reading to hear what they wish.  is not the smoking gun you folks believe it to be, particular if you read the actual investigator comments and not simple the headlines.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Hurlshort]

Hey, you can teach PE with. Kinesiology degree.