Israeli Elections

[BruceVC]

http://www.nytimes.com/live/israel-elections-vote-results/

 

Guys this is actually very exciting, at the moment the Zionist Union is in the lead and may still unseat Netanyahu and Likud 

 

I'll be following this election closely 

 

[Valsuelm]

Netanyahu is a fear mongering warmongering piece of fermented swine feces. On my list of evil leaders of nations, he's #1.

 

May he lose the election, and then one day rot in Gehenna.

 

That said, even if he loses, I'm sure he and those like him will remain powerful. Woe is the world that this is so.

 

Baby steps I suppose.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

If Bibiboo gets knocked out, I believe Sheldon Adelson will **** a brick.

[Rostere]

I remember debating some years ago about whether or not Beeboo was serious about negotiating a two-state solution. Remember the only time there has ever been serious steps forward - under the Rabin government in the early nineties. Boobie held very inflammatory speeches at rallies where there people were burning effigies of Rabin, had images of him hanged and in a SS uniform, et.c.. Lo and behold, a few days later Rabin was shot by a Jewish terrorist. Until his current government he's bragged about killing Oslo, preventing a Palestinian state, and so on.

 

So at the start of his current time in government, when he gave a speech giving reluctant support for a two-state solution (no doubt under pressure from Obama) I was very skeptical towards the idea that he had suddenly had a change of heart. A few years later of farcical "negotiations" covering accelerating land grabs and illegal settlements, and it appears most people have understood this as well.

 

Now if there EVER could be ANY doubt left:

 

"Netanyahu Vows: No Palestianian State if I'm PM"

 

Suddenly, negotiations are no longer about trying to reach, you know, an actual agreement, as he has pretended before. Suddenly, when it's about getting votes, it's all about "standing up to Washington" to continue the Apartheid occupation of the West Bank. Mondoweiss article here. Well. At least that poor, poor, guy Kerry won't have to go through the diplomatic suicide mission of trying to negotiate a two-state agreement with Bibi-sitter ever again.

 

So I guess the good thing that has come out of this is that the charade of negotiations with the Israeli right-wing has ended. And remember, Bibi is the nicest of them. The other guys are people who have been calling for "chopping the heads of Palestinians" in his election campaign, people who believe that equality is suicide, et.c.. These are people who are playing in the same league of asshattery as Golden Dawn and Jobbik.

 

If Bibiboo gets knocked out, I believe Sheldon Adelson will **** a brick.

 

Either that, or an icosahedron.

 

BTW, where is your awesome avatar from?

[HoonDing]

Never read Preacher?

[Rostere]

Never read Preacher?

 

Apparently not. I don't really read comics. It's not that I don't like them, it's just that there is so much else to do.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

 

Never read Preacher?

 

 

Apparently not. I don't really read comics. It's not that I don't like them, it's just that there is so much else to do.

It's Cassidy from Preacher. IMO one of the best comics to emerge from 90's Vertigo and well worth the read if you have the time or money.

[Rostere]

Okay, so exit polls - which should not be given too much credibility - gives us something like this:

 

 

Build your own fantasy coalition here.

 

The very short summary is that for Netanyahu to continue governing, he will either need a left-right unity government, the support of both centrist parties (Yesh Atid and Kulanu), or the support of both ultra-orthodox parties and one centrist party.

 

For Herzog to form a government, he needs the support of Meretz (that's a given), the Arab parties, and any two of the centrists or the ultra-orthodox. This would then be a minority government.

 

So since the fiercely secular Yesh Atid and the ultra-orthodox won't mix, that leaves us with Kulanu to choose the next government in all possible situations except the one of a left-right unity government.

 

Additionally, this gives us - for us who are interested in the I/P conflict:

 

Left-wing and center (on paper for a Palestinian state, enthusiasm varying): 49 seats (+9)

Right-wing and far-right (against a Palestinian state): 40 seats (-3)

Far-left + Arabs: 18 seats (+1)

Ultra-orthodox religious parties (supports everyone who gives them economic benefits): 13 seats (-5)

 

This is all without Yachad crossing the threshold.

[Namutree]

Netanyahu is a fear mongering warmongering piece of fermented swine feces. On my list of evil leaders of nations, he's #1.

 

May he lose the election, and then one day rot in Gehenna.

 

That said, even if he loses, I'm sure he and those like him will remain powerful. Woe is the world that this is so.

 

Baby steps I suppose.

He's #1? Really? 

 

Kim Jong Un doesn't trump Netanyahu? 

[Wrath of Dagon]

NK is the greatest country on earth, it's just the Zionist conspiracy that convinced you otherwise!

[Namutree]

NK is the greatest country on earth, it's just the Zionist conspiracy that convinced you otherwise!

Dang. Friggin' zionists are always causin' trouble.

 

I bet they're responsible for hair lice and acne too.

[Valsuelm]

 

Netanyahu is a fear mongering warmongering piece of fermented swine feces. On my list of evil leaders of nations, he's #1.

 

May he lose the election, and then one day rot in Gehenna.

 

That said, even if he loses, I'm sure he and those like him will remain powerful. Woe is the world that this is so.

 

Baby steps I suppose.

He's #1? Really? 

 

Kim Jong Un doesn't trump Netanyahu? 

 

 

Kim?

 

LOL (old school, as in you actually made me laugh out loud (the internet was a better place when LOL meant what it says))

 

Kim is largely harmless. I'm not saying he's a good guy, but he doesn't have near the blood on his sleeve than many other leaders do. He doesn't even rank top 10, hell, not even top 20, maybe even 50. Unless of course you had your heart set on a mohawk, then maybe he's the worst of the worst.

 

[Zoraptor]

For Herzog to form a government, he needs the support of Meretz (that's a given), the Arab parties, and any two of the centrists or the ultra-orthodox. This would then be a minority government.

 

 

I'd suspect that they'd go for an agreement not to bring down the government with the Joint List rather than them being formally in government, that would cut down on problems getting other parties to join and is more compatible with what the arabs said prior to the election ie that they wouldn't join a government of any ilk. Even with just an agreement to abstain on confidence/ supply motions it would drop the coalition size required on the left to 54 from 61, assuming the Israeli system does not require absolute majorities on confidence/ supply issues.

 

It may well come down to who ends up with the largest vote share, as they would presumably get first chance to make a government. Balance of opinion seems to be that Bibi has the advantage, even if it falls far short of being the great victory his speech claimed.

[Namutree]

 

 

Netanyahu is a fear mongering warmongering piece of fermented swine feces. On my list of evil leaders of nations, he's #1.

 

May he lose the election, and then one day rot in Gehenna.

 

That said, even if he loses, I'm sure he and those like him will remain powerful. Woe is the world that this is so.

 

Baby steps I suppose.

He's #1? Really? 

 

Kim Jong Un doesn't trump Netanyahu? 

 

 

Kim?

 

LOL (old school, as in you actually made me laugh out loud (the internet was a better place when LOL meant what it says))

 

Kim is largely harmless. I'm not saying he's a good guy, but he doesn't have near the blood on his sleeve than many other leaders do. He doesn't even rank top 10, hell, not even top 20, maybe even 50.

 

If you mean "dangerous" when you say "evil" than your ranking system makes more sense to me.

[BruceVC]

 

 

Netanyahu is a fear mongering warmongering piece of fermented swine feces. On my list of evil leaders of nations, he's #1.

 

May he lose the election, and then one day rot in Gehenna.

 

That said, even if he loses, I'm sure he and those like him will remain powerful. Woe is the world that this is so.

 

Baby steps I suppose.

He's #1? Really? 

 

Kim Jong Un doesn't trump Netanyahu? 

 

 

Kim?

 

LOL (old school, as in you actually made me laugh out loud (the internet was a better place when LOL meant what it says))

 

Kim is largely harmless. I'm not saying he's a good guy, but he doesn't have near the blood on his sleeve than many other leaders do. He doesn't even rank top 10, hell, not even top 20, maybe even 50. Unless of course you had your heart set on a mohawk, then maybe he's the worst of the worst.

 

 

 

I'm  am truly shocked by your definition of what constitutes a "bad guy ", it amazes me how you seem give the NK regime a pass from there historic, current and egregious human rights abuses

 

The only reason we don't know the exact number of people that the Kim family have directly and indirectly killed and murdered is because NK is a brutal dictatorship that uses all force necessary to suppress any political dissension and control the flow of information

 

Tens of thousands of people have died of starvation in NK, thousands of people have ended up in work camps and torture is rife 

 

There is much blood on the hands of the Kim family and they are no different to many other dictators that exist and have existed in the world 

 

Vals you really need to fix your " bad guy meter" ....because the Kim family are a cruel, barbaric and implacable ruling family that have done really  nothing to benefit the majority of NK citizens in there decade age rule 

[BruceVC]

I can't find any links but on CNN the latest news is that Likud is now ahead, nonetheless I look forward to seeing how the various political  collations work out 

 

 

I have to say that Netanyahu's decision to now publicly reject  the two state solution just to pander to the Israeli  right wing and win support  is appalling and disingenuous 

 

Imagine how annoyed this is going to make countries like the USA who have spent years trying to broker a peace deal based on the two state solution ? The view was a two state solution was always possible but difficult. If the various negotiators had known that Netanyahu had no intention of ever agreeing to this it would have changed the nature of the discussions and people wouldn't have spent as much wasted time around this.

[obyknven]

poor Obama...

[Rostere]

IMO the North Korean regime is far worse than Israel. They are not exactly comparable.

But North Korea is not very interesting to discuss. Everybody knows what they're doing, and they don't really have any Western supporters or apologists. People despise them and they are judged very fairly. Any discussion about North Korea would be very short. There are people who actually believe that Israel is an valuable "ally" of the US, and that the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians is either justified or a Communist conspiracy theory. There is literally no difference between the thoughts behind this and this. Yet one of them is universally condemned, and one is actively supported by US tax dollars.

Wake me up when US donations for construction of North Korean forced labor camps are tax-deductible, or when Republicans are demanding a complete dismantlement of South Korean civilian nuclear program (in spite of the fact that North Korea already has nukes), when the US gives a guarantee to repay any loans North Korea can't pay back, when the US gives North Korea 3 billion dollars a year for weapons which they use to subjugate occupied South Koreans in their ghettos, when the US vetoes all criticism and inquiry into North Korean war crimes, and when the US holds farcical "peace negotiations" while North Korea continuously grabs pieces of South Korea. Then it will be more interesting to discuss North Korea.

 

The current US-Israeli relation is very unhealthy and destructive and must come to an end. Bibi has been very helpful in that regard lately.
 

 

For Herzog to form a government, he needs the support of Meretz (that's a given), the Arab parties, and any two of the centrists or the ultra-orthodox. This would then be a minority government.

 
I'd suspect that they'd go for an agreement not to bring down the government with the Joint List rather than them being formally in government, that would cut down on problems getting other parties to join and is more compatible with what the arabs said prior to the election ie that they wouldn't join a government of any ilk. Even with just an agreement to abstain on confidence/ supply motions it would drop the coalition size required on the left to 54 from 61, assuming the Israeli system does not require absolute majorities on confidence/ supply issues.

 
Yes, that is what I meant when I wrote they would be a minority government.
 

I have to say that Netanyahu's decision to now publicly reject  the two state solution just to pander to the Israeli  right wing and win support  is appalling and disingenuous 
 
Imagine how annoyed this is going to make countries like the USA who have spent years trying to broker a peace deal based on the two state solution ? The view was a two state solution was always possible but difficult. If the various negotiators had known that Netanyahu had no intention of ever agreeing to this it would have changed the nature of the discussions and people wouldn't have spent as much wasted time around this.

 
Everybody has known this for some time, really. Bibi's fame started with incitement against Rabin for "collaborating with Arabs". He's been vehemently opposed to any concessions on Israel's part in the past.
 
Suddenly in 2009, he appears to give reluctant support to a two-state solution. It would be very naïve to think that the opinions which he has built his entire career on would have changed sincerely, when it became very convenient for them to do so. And all the time during negotiations, Bibi supporters claimed that he would never make any meaningful concessions to the Palestinians. At this point most US media was sickeningly full of pieces about the peace-loving Bibi who would give Palestinians everything they wanted, if not for the evil, villainous Hamas which is responsible for killing so many with their powerful rockets. Very recently things have turned towards the better, but US media have existed in some kind of parallel bizarro universe with regards to this conflict for far too long.
 
At least with Bibi at the helm, we know US-Israeli relations will only get more healthy. With a leftist regime we would risk being stuck with the same farcical discussions only with a nicer face.

Edited March 18, 2015 by Rostere

[Agiel]

Only a week ago, he was running behind in the polls, but a massive last-minute scare campaign turned it around. On polling day, Netanyahu even put a video clip on his Facebook page in which he warned that “the rule of the right is in danger. The (Israeli) Arabs are moving in droves to the polling stations. Left-wing organisations are bringing them there in buses.” And who was paying for those buses? “American money,” explained Bibi’s campaign team.

 

-Gwynne Dyer, Benjamin Netanyahu wins reelection by destroying the myth of the “two-state solution”

 

 

Yeah, and "American money" also pays for your F-35s, MIM-104 Patriot PAC-3, THAAD, and a whole host of other military hardware, Bibi.

Edited March 18, 2015 by Agiel

[Rostere]

 

Only a week ago, he was running behind in the polls, but a massive last-minute scare campaign turned it around. On polling day, Netanyahu even put a video clip on his Facebook page in which he warned that “the rule of the right is in danger. The (Israeli) Arabs are moving in droves to the polling stations. Left-wing organisations are bringing them there in buses.” And who was paying for those buses? “American money,” explained Bibi’s campaign team.

 

-Gwynne Dyer, Benjamin Netanyahu wins reelection by destroying the myth of the “two-state solution”

 

 

Yeah, and "American money" also pays for your F-35s, MIM-104 Patriot PAC-3, THAAD, and a whole host of other military hardware, Bibi.

 

Like they say, "it's all fun and games until someone loses an election".

 

I think it's safe to say that he actually thought he would lose. Now he's used every tool, ranging from "international conspiracy" to "halp, Arabs!!" and absurdly managed turned his disadvantage around, thus unintentionally showing for the world which politics the electorate really want. This is a taste of the rhetoric which will increasingly openly be used by others than the far-right, who have already started their retrograde course to the 1930s.

 

I fear this is what we will see in the future. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

[Valsuelm]

 

I fear this is what we will see in the future. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

 

 

I imagine some folks in Rome said this when Caesar crossed the Rubicon. I wonder if they realized it might be the better part of two millennia before it got better.

 

A new dark age is on the horizon.

 

 

 

This is a general observation, not specific to Bibi or Israel. He's no Caesar, and this election was no Rubicon.

 

 

[Longknife]

He's #1? Really? 

 

 

Kim Jong Un doesn't trump Netanyahu? 

 

 

How dare you disrespect the Supreme Leader.

 

[Zoraptor]

I fear this is what we will see in the future. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

I'm slightly more upbeat about it as it will make it very difficult for anyone to argue to give (the) peace (process) a chance after this, which will greatly increase the probability of unilateral actions like recognising Palestine as a country. Realistically the past 15 years of peace talks have been stalling by Israel in order to get demographic facts on the ground established, neither Sharon nor Bibi had any interest in actual peace and it's now been made crystal clear to everyone. Once that is established it makes it far more difficult to stall, and far more difficult for the US to run interference.

 

Who knows, maybe he's managed to annoy the White House sufficiently that some meaningful resolutions may even make it through the UNSC, certainly I can see them being more flexible towards Iran just to spite Netanyahu.

[BruceVC]

 

I fear this is what we will see in the future. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

I'm slightly more upbeat about it as it will make it very difficult for anyone to argue to give (the) peace (process) a chance after this, which will greatly increase the probability of unilateral actions like recognising Palestine as a country. Realistically the past 15 years of peace talks have been stalling by Israel in order to get demographic facts on the ground established, neither Sharon nor Bibi had any interest in actual peace and it's now been made crystal clear to everyone. Once that is established it makes it far more difficult to stall, and far more difficult for the US to run interference.

 

Who knows, maybe he's managed to annoy the White House sufficiently that some meaningful resolutions may even make it through the UNSC, certainly I can see them being more flexible towards Iran just to spite Netanyahu.

 

 

Netanyahu's dismissal and contempt for the USA will have consequences for Israel, I think he has made an egregious mistake by so publicly  aligning with the Right Wing for political expediency when he said " there will never be a two state solution under his watch" 

 

I was watching an interview last night with one of John Kerry's aides and she said the USA has spent 20 years investing in the concept  of the two state solution and the USA  position has not changed, what Netanyahu has done could cause the USA to rethink the Israeli\USA relationship ( what this really means is the Obama is administration is extremely irritated  and there will be changes going forward)

[Volourn]

Obama administration is gone in less 2 years.  They're at the point where long term they are almsot irrelevant. And, hardly anyone on the  world stage respects them.