Meshugger Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 Is it as bad as this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978 "Some men see things as they are and say why?""I dream things that never were and say why not?"- George Bernard Shaw"Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man."- Friedrich Nietzsche "The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it." - Some guy
Valsuelm Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) Is it as bad as this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978 No. In fact it's turned out to be a bad joke. http://nypost.com/2015/01/27/national-weather-service-meteorologist-sorry-about-getting-that-blizzard-thing-wrong/ http://connecticut.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/storm-fails-to-live-up-to-predictions-in-some-areas/ http://connecticut.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/social-media-calling-blizzard-of-2015-a-bust/ http://www.nbcnews.com/watch/live-video/watch-live-new-york-city-snow-cam-322484291648 Why people listen to the weather people much at all is beyond me. I've seen them get the current conditions drastically wrong, let alone what's going to happen tomorrow or a week from now. Edited January 27, 2015 by Valsuelm
Malcador Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) Better safe than sorry, I guess. Does seem they are looking at their modelling though, so here's hoping they get a more accurate one (apparently the US model is inferior to a EU one, due to less computing power available) Edited January 27, 2015 by Malcador Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra
Keyrock Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, we got less than a foot where I live, maybe 9 inches or so. It's not over yat as we might get more snow later toady, but nothing heavy. Works for me. I still get the day off paid and cleanup is easier. Win-win. RFK Jr 2024 "Any organization created out of fear must create fear to survive." - Bill Hicks
Enoch Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) Why people listen to the weather people much at all is beyond me. I've seen them get the current conditions drastically wrong, let alone what's going to happen tomorrow or a week from now. Predictions are probabilistic and therefore sometimes inaccurate-- we should stop predicting!! Anyhow, impact here in the DC area was minimal. (As predicted.) I swept about an inch and a half's worth of snow off the driveway. Edited January 27, 2015 by Enoch
Leferd Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 Why people listen to the weather people much at all is beyond me. I've seen them get the current conditions drastically wrong, let alone what's going to happen tomorrow or a week from now. Predictions are probabilistic and therefore sometimes inaccurate-- we should stop predicting!! Anyhow, impact here in the DC area was minimal. (As predicted.) I swept about an inch and a half's worth of snow off the driveway. Good to know. Now I don't feel guilty for not bothering to check up on my brother in Arlington. "Things are funny...are comedic, because they mix the real with the absurd." - Buzz Aldrin."P-O-T-A-T-O-E" - Dan Quayle
Valsuelm Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 Why people listen to the weather people much at all is beyond me. I've seen them get the current conditions drastically wrong, let alone what's going to happen tomorrow or a week from now. Predictions are probabilistic and therefore sometimes inaccurate-- we should stop predicting!! No. Go ahead and predict. Just don't listen to people who sensationalize, exaggerate, repeatedly stir up hysteria multiple times a year based on poop, make money doing so, and get it wrong most of the time. I have more faith in the Farmer's Almanac or Madam Zelda to get it right with her crystal ball than the major weather services here in the US. An experienced eye can more accurately predict the weather based on seeing the radar map, temp map, air pressure map, and sometimes even just looking at the sky or smelling the air, than the mainstream media weather people can. I say that because they do get the the current conditions wrong at least a few times a year where I live (I only check the weather about once a week on average, so it's probably more than a few). If you can't even tell me what it's doing outside right now, why on earth should I give you even a smidgeon of credence in telling me what's going to happen tomorrow. Your average weatherman shouldn't have any more credibility than your average politician. It's another 'Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.' situation.
Enoch Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) Well, sure, some idiots on TV are, well, idiots on TV. But the NOAA work at weather.gov has no institutional biases towards sensationalism. (And, yes, I know that the NY bureau missed on this particular event.) And some localities have other good sources. In my area, the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang is fantastic-- they explain their rationales, how confident (or not) they are in their conclusions, and what went wrong with the models when they miss. They've got a nice post up now about how the NYC and Philly forecasts for this storm were so poor (and poorly communicated). Edit: As to your "current conditions" complaint, I'm reminded of the old Carlin stoned-weatherman bit (paraphrasing): "It's 58 degrees at the airport. Which is stupid, because I don't know anybody who lives at the airport." Edited January 27, 2015 by Enoch 1
LadyCrimson Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 For years the thing about TV weather reports here - more specifically, the "forecast" aspect - is that they were based on San Francisco, or tried to incorporate a huge range to cover the whole extended Bay Area which can have vastly different micro-climates (or whatever you call it) vs. the Peninsula or South Bay or extreme East. Sure, the big maps they'd show would have temp's for all over, but those 5-day forecast type things...nothing close. Now I can get temps/conditions from stations that are a lot closer to where I actually am, so it's generally more accurate on a day to day basis. “Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
Gromnir Posted January 27, 2015 Posted January 27, 2015 one need not be particularly prescient to guess the weather in the CA's central valley between late april and early october. dry & hot. ... is a bit like rubber necking as one passes by a traffic accident, but am admitting a tiny fraction o' curiosity insofar as val's conspiracy theories regarding weather predictions. no doubt the cia and the military-industrial complex is involved in over/under estimating the severity and duration o' inclement weather, but we don't immediate see the connections. HA! Good Fun! "If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927) "Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)
Valsuelm Posted January 28, 2015 Posted January 28, 2015 (edited) Well, sure, some idiots on TV are, well, idiots on TV. But the NOAA work at weather.gov has no institutional biases towards sensationalism. (And, yes, I know that the NY bureau missed on this particular event.) And some localities have other good sources. In my area, the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang is fantastic-- they explain their rationales, how confident (or not) they are in their conclusions, and what went wrong with the models when they miss. They've got a nice post up now about how the NYC and Philly forecasts for this storm were so poor (and poorly communicated). Edit: As to your "current conditions" complaint, I'm reminded of the old Carlin stoned-weatherman bit (paraphrasing): "It's 58 degrees at the airport. Which is stupid, because I don't know anybody who lives at the airport." Well yea. Local guys generally get it right more often. Thing is, is that the local guys very often follow the lead of the national guys and the local guys rarely if ever drive a weather story at a national level, if there are still local guys at all that is. A lot of local weatherman have been put out of work all over in the last decade or so with the cannibalizing of many a small local TV station by large media companies. We have at least two less local weather folks than we did ten years ago where I live due to such things. Insofar as my complaint about the weather folks getting the current conditions wrong. It's not a matter of a few degrees of temp I was referring to, but something much more drastic such as the national services (The Weather Channel, Accuweather, et al) saying it's raining heavily right now when it's been a beautiful sunny day all day long with not a rain cloud in the sky and with the radar not even showing any rain within 100 miles in the last 24 hours, or the opposite scenario. Edited January 28, 2015 by Valsuelm
Keyrock Posted January 28, 2015 Posted January 28, 2015 It looks like I got off lucky. Some more snow fell late last night and early this morning. In other places it never stopped and just kept going until this morning. The further east and the further north you were the harder you got hit it seems. I live in Hartford, which is pretty much right in the center of CT. We got off easy with only 13". Manchester, where I work, got 19". Mansfield, where my boss lives, got 22". Thompson, which is in the extreme northeast corner of the state, got over 30". Some places in Massachusetts got 3 feet. RFK Jr 2024 "Any organization created out of fear must create fear to survive." - Bill Hicks
Valsuelm Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 So, the insane storm paranoia aside. Last winter was nice and snowy. This winter is ever more nice and snowy. Best winter we've had in my neck of the woods since 2004. Snow's deep, coming almost daily, and highs sustained in the teens or lower. Awesome winter sporting weather. And here's a guy singing about how much he loves it:
Namutree Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 Dude, screw this winter! It's too cold! I hate the cold! "Good thing I don't heal my characters or they'd be really hurt." Is not something I should ever be thinking. I use blue text when I'm being sarcastic.
Valsuelm Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 Dude, screw this winter! It's too cold! I hate the cold! Move south then. Or pick up a winter activity like skiing or snowmobiling where you'll actually like the fact that it's winter. I like my four seasons. Well.. 3 of them anyways.. Mud season (Spring) I can do without.
Namutree Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 Dude, screw this winter! It's too cold! I hate the cold! Move south then. Or pick up a winter activity like skiing or snowmobiling where you'll actually like the fact that it's winter. I like my four seasons. Well.. 3 of them anyways.. Mud season (Spring) I can do without. I wanted to complain; not do something about it. "Good thing I don't heal my characters or they'd be really hurt." Is not something I should ever be thinking. I use blue text when I'm being sarcastic.
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