Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis

[Mor]

Well of course it is punitive. You have an anti-russian coalition screaming "Hang the Muscovite!" or something like that in power and then expect price cuts? That would be funny.

What is funny is the suggestion that Russia cut prices because of your so called "anti-Russian" coalition, as opposed to people in said coalition being there because of Russian actions or rather soviet corrupt practices in their own country. There is a reason why all post soviet countries are moving away from Russia, who is left with its nominal friends North Korea and Iran...

 

I agree on the free market bit, but even us "filthy capitalist" have a distinction between a bank and a loan shark, or in our case i'd go as far as drug dealer because its what you throw your money at that counts and as i understand that those subsidies thralled Ukraine economy (and "punitive" actions were not limited to gas) Also despite Putin cult megalomaniacs opinion of the "west", before Russia started to intervene in Ukraine, I never thought or cared about Russia or for that mater considered that EU should help Ukraine, who for a long time has avoided making unpopular tough reforms, I am tired of "Greece" a likes.

 

EDIT:

Ukraine to hike domestic gas prices by 50 percent to meet IMF demands

 

This is in addition to the recently slashed pensions. Likely more to come from the incumbent unelected government, in the form of austerity measures aimed at reducing budget deficit. Will Maidan protesters at least benefit from this deal? Think again! The bailout is intended to alleviate debt pressures, i.e. it's going straight to the banks. Congratulations Greece, you are no longer the economic armpit of Europe!

 

All aboard the FREEDOM train! Next stop, asset stripping. Choo-choo!

The things I hate the most in our political arena is political who grab support by rant about everything that is wrongs with the world, I think its a model that work well for comedians, but to me unless a politician has a better option he should stfu.

 

Speaking of which, what measure do you suggest that Ukraince should take to get out of its economical grave?

Edited April 2, 2014 by Mor

[BruceVC]

 

Well I just see this as bad business sense that the Ukrainian energy company, Naftogaz, sells gas at less than the price in buys from Russia. We should be supporting the fact that the IMF is encouraging Ukraine to demonstrate more fiscal prudence

 

Yes, because IMF-sponsored "fiscal prudence" has worked wonders elsewhere, right? Who cares if people can't pay for gas? After all, it's "bad business" to subsidize necesity goods, huh?

 

But hey, let's spin the story to make it about Russia. And while we're at it, let's also forget that the single thing that started the ball rolling was Yanukovych's refusal to accept the same terms of the deal that his unelected successors have made. Can't let silly things like democracy get in the way of economic domination, now can we.

 

 

2133 lets try to leave our personal views on Ukraine\Russia\EU out of this discussion for a second and lets be logical. I think we can all agree that Ukraine requires transformation to get there economy viable and healthy again. What business, company or country for that matter sells anything for less than what it buys it for? It makes no sense, don't blame the IMF for making the correct suggestions. "Don't shoot the messenger "

 

Also why are you suggesting that the fact that Russia is now astronomically increasing there gas price to Ukraine is some sort of spin or is not relevant?

[obyknven]

 

Also why are you suggesting that the fact that Russia is now astronomically increasing there gas price to Ukraine is some sort of spin or is not relevant?

 

Russia increase gas price because of sanctions, we must compensate our financial losses, say thank you to Obama and EU. Anyway this is free market and capitalism, if Ukraine can't pay she can find another gas seller (or stop using gas).

[Sarex]

Also why are you suggesting that the fact that Russia is now astronomically increasing there gas price to Ukraine is some sort of spin or is not relevant?

 

Because it's not, when Ukraine was a satellite state of Russia it had a discount price, now that it's a satellite state of the EU it pays EU prices. It is the right of Russia to set any price it wants on the things it exports, why is that even in question?

[Meshugger]

Ukraine should begin a policy of energy independence instead, with surplus for export. That's how nations can be truly independent. But of course, that is not in the interest in the global free market, where every resource (human or material) is in direct competition with each other, despite borders.

[213374U]

2133 lets try to leave our personal views on Ukraine\Russia\EU out of this discussion for a second and lets be logical. I think we can all agree that Ukraine requires transformation to get there economy viable and healthy again. What business, company or country for that matter sells anything for less than what it buys it for? It makes no sense, don't blame the IMF for making the correct suggestions. "Don't shoot the messenger "

 

Also why are you suggesting that the fact that Russia is now astronomically increasing there gas price to Ukraine is some sort of spin or is not relevant?

 

You do know that Naftogaz is state owned, right? State owned enterprises aren't set up to make a profit, they are chartered and organized to provide services or goods that are deemed essential, strategic, or otherwise pertaining to the general interest. That's why they are state owned; they aren't necessarily profitable and therefore one cannot rely on capitalists to fill that niche with the assurances and stability required in critical roles. It is also risky to relinquish control of certain sectors of the economy to private, international actors, whose interests and motives are, at best, opaque.

 

That you think the IMF is making the right suggestions in this is, frankly, mindboggling. This is not the first IMF credit Ukraine receives, it's actually the third, following one in 1998 and another in 2010. Each time, the bailouts required the application of austerity measures that have done nothing but choke an already battered economy. But this is not an isolated case, it is a result that consistently repeated. The IMF is a messenger all right, but the message is the old market fundamentalism doctrine of the Washington Consensus—it is a supranational instrument designed to wrestle control of economies that have been previously destabilized and weakened by other means or factors, from the representatives of the people. The strategy of taking over nations by saddling their economies with debt is not new; it's been around since the Roman Empire.

 

And it's not that a rise in Russian gas prices is irrelevant, it's that no longer being treated as a preferential customer is the logical consequence of flipping the bird at one's provider. Remember, Russia is still fundamentally reacting to what the provisional government in Kiev is doing. The unelected, putschist government in Kiev, that is. Can't risk waiting until after the May election to sell the country for a pittance, can we?

Edited April 2, 2014 by 213374U

[Rostere]

 

 

The reason Israel abstained is obvious, Russia can make a hell of a lot of trouble for them if it wants. Same reason Israel goes out of its way not to offend China. For other US allies it's an easy vote, not a hell of a lot Russia can do to them.

 

I can see that Israel would not want Russia (or China) to sell Iran AA. But they are already doing that, so nothing to do there. Other than that, there is little or nothing Russia could do which wouldn't backfire on themselves with catastrophic consequences. If Russia was caught arming terrorists "indirectly" (if that's what you're insinuating? Please elaborate!), there would be hell to pay. Actually, there are a lot of countries in Africa who voted "yes" who would be much more vulnerable than Israel if Russia decided to rock the boat.

 

Are you insinuating that there are any countries in Africa who are more likely(not vulnerable) to be effected by such vote than Israel(Please elaborate which and why!).

 

No. The point was that the argument of vulnerability was invalid. I believe that the likelihood of any "punishment" is low, and equally low for all countries who would be vulnerable. So if you concede my point about vulnerability, then you must believe that Putin would be extra keen to punish Israel for some reason if you are saying that they in particular should fear some kind of retribution?

 

 

As if Israel hasn't been the focus of US/Russia proxy wars for decades and that increased US-Russian rivalry wouldn't lead to Russia lashing out against US interest, such as its current foreign effort in Israel\Syria\Iran, or by arming US\Israel adversaries.

 

What the heck... No. Israel has not been a focus of US/Russia proxy wars for decades. You are entirely and completely ignorant to believe so. Think about it for just a minute. First, Israel has never intervened on the US behalf in any war, and there are many times as many US military bases in Arab countries compared to Israel. Israel was maybe somewhat a focus of US/USSR proxy war certainly at least from LBJ (I would say, although there is no exact date, just increasingly much from 1948 onwards) up until Jimmy Carter's peace treaty in 1978. But ever since this American military support (read: bribe) to Egypt, the region calmed down significantly, and in any case Israel, which is a tiny country lacking any significant resources of any kind would have been worth only minimal military aid from a geopolitical perspective. The "loss" of Israel either to Communist-aligned political factions or to Arab nations in war would have been small, certainly smaller compared to lots of other nations I bet you don't place such importance in, check for yourself... So in those days, yes, a piece, but not more than a pawn.

 

But all that was during the Cold War which had an ideological component - nowadays that is gone and so firstly there is no rivalry as in those days because there is no need for exclusivity. Any country can trade with both the US and Russia as much as they want. Russia has no "foreign effort" in Israel which goes against US interests. Wake up, this is not 1970. Meanwhile, Syria and Iran are not intrinsically US adversaries, the only reason they buy arms from Russia is because they are afraid the US, Saudi Arabia or Israel will attack them or topple their governments and it is stupid to buy weapons from potential enemies. They have no ideology in common at all with Russia, the only thing they want Russia for is that it's not the US and not West-aligned. They absolutely aren't "allied" at all with Russia or Russian "proxies" in any true sense like Cuba, Mongolia or Poland were during the Cold War. Russia supports their regimes in the UN only because they are buying Russian weaponry, in order that they won't turn to China instead.

 

They are buying Russian simply because Israel is getting American weaponry and support, and thus they need a different arms supplier in case of war. Now if Israel had been fully occupied during the 1973 war, it would likely had become a non-democratic country with close Comintern ties, because of the ideologies of the invading countries and the general pro-Comintern sentiments among the parties such as PFLP which were in vogue at the time. So I guess 1973 fits the bill for a proxy war.

 

However if Israel today would give voting rights to Palestinians in the West Bank and allow the Christian and Muslim refugees who were driven out of the country in 1948 back, it is rather unlikely the resulting country would buy Russian arms or be Russian-aligned in the long term. Israel is not a US ally (if you do consider them that) which can somehow be replaced by a pro-Russian pawn through war. The resulting Palestinian-majority state would be much more likely to be aligned with the neighbouring Sunni countries (which all buy American arms... Egypt at least until recent events) against the Shia-dominated Russian customers Syria, Iran and Iraq. That would happen without a question taking into account Fatah and also Hamas (see their ambivalent stance towards the war in Syria...). Furthermore, the need for arms in the entire region would decrease, since all countries over there see Israel is it's most likely enemy - that would mean bad business for Russia as well. If in another hypothetical situation Iran would bomb the hell out of Israel, Russia would gain absolutely nothing. The US would certainly not have better ties with a Palestine than with Israel, but there are no customers to gain for Russia since Palestine would just be another nation aligned against their existing customers in the region.

 

 

Anyway, here is an article from Jerusalem Post, from the start of the Ukrainian crisis, which explained why they are going to sit on the sidelines through this conflict. Also a repost of the 'UN voting map against Russia annexation of Crimea' from the previous page. Which should at least help you visualize how insignificant they are in the context of this crisis and response to it.

 

Don't get me wrong, they are an insignificant voice in this, as are all non-UN veto countries. Functionally, their voice alone on the Crimea debacle makes no difference in this. But the position of one country goes a long, long way to signal their allegiance. It is an affirmation of support or denunciation. It definitely tells something that Israel does not feel the need to voice their support for the US. You choose to interpret this as if you know that they are an ally of the US, even if they hardly ever give anything back. It beats me why you would want an ally like that - I interpret it as Israel feeling other countries are more important to appease at the moment, either because they feel the US is so deep in their proverbial pocket anyway, or that they feel that the peace process is getting out of hand and they might need a new veto sugar daddy in the UNSC. I get the feeling you haven't been reading the news lately at all. And possibly not adjusted your world view since the middle of the Cold War.

[Walsingham]

Was it? Even when you factor in the loss of Crimea, the EU has aligned Ukraine with the Union, Russian stock markets went down, capital flight rate over there has increased, prices are rising (food rose 25% from the start of the year), and Russia has confirmed its opinion as a hostile foreign power. The long term effects of the Ukrainian revolution are up to debate, but I don't consider it a failure of the West. Maybe it's the shining beacon of Polish statesmanship that's blinding me.

 

 

Fair point. I don't personally buy an opportunity for Putin to look good, and for State and DoD to looks stupid as in line with previous CIA ops. But I can see how you might.

 

~

 

As for the false flags well, *waves hand in gentle parabola* if you believe that anyone who can win from an event is BEHIND the event, then you might as well live in the skirting boards eating cheese.

[Zoraptor]

Heh, gotta have a giggle. Ukrainian company subsidises Ukrainian's gas == Crime Against Capitalism! that must stop. Russia subsidies Ukrainian gas == natural order of things, should continue, any change is a Despicable Russian Plot! How anyone could write that contortion of logic with a straight face is quite beyond my comprehension.
 

It definitely tells something that Israel does not feel the need to voice their support for the US.

You're reading too much into it. All it expresses is that Israel has unilaterally annexed land (without any of the excuses/ justifications that Russia had for Crimea) and does not want to go on record against that process as it would inevitably be used against them. I very much doubt that the US expected them to vote for the condemnation. Most of Israel's 'US has abandoned us' type comments are made for US consumption, as a stick for Fox et alia to bludgeon the "Israel hating" Obama regime with, they are not a genuine statement of intent- that would require some actual concrete movements by the US government to apply actual pressure with diplomatic or economic measures, as opposed to blowing the odd waft of rhetorical hot air at Bibi's well moussed coiffure. And that will not happen.
 
Your analysis reads a lot better for Serbia than for Israel, as Serbia was very clearly stuck between Russia, their traditional ally and protector who still (iirc) provides them with subsidised gas, and their new pals in the EU; plus the Kosovo factor to complicate things.

[pmp10]

I don't personally buy an opportunity for Putin to look good, and for State and DoD to looks stupid as in line with previous CIA ops. 

Are they really made to look so terribly stupid?

Nobody but a handful of extremists want to see any serious western intervention.

New Ukrainian government will receive enough loans not to go under immediately and long term they even have a small shot at breaking out of Russian grip.

 

Given the political situation I don't see how much more good could have been done.

The worst thing to come out of this so far is the spread of political cynicism and apathy as western voters see their politicians waste time on empty rhetoric.

[Rostere]

 

It definitely tells something that Israel does not feel the need to voice their support for the US.

You're reading too much into it. All it expresses is that Israel has unilaterally annexed land (without any of the excuses/ justifications that Russia had for Crimea) and does not want to go on record against that process as it would inevitably be used against them. I very much doubt that the US expected them to vote for the condemnation.

 

Well, at first it was just a remark, but now it's escalated into a much more general discussion. To be honest, I wouldn't have noticed it or thought it was interesting if it wasn't for the consistent efforts of certain factions in Israeli politics to warm up to Russia, an effort which has been going on for years and is led by the current foreign minister.

 

 

Most of Israel's 'US has abandoned us' type comments are made for US consumption, as a stick for Fox et alia to bludgeon the "Israel hating" Obama regime with, they are not a genuine statement of intent- that would require some actual concrete movements by the US government to apply actual pressure with diplomatic or economic measures, as opposed to blowing the odd waft of rhetorical hot air at Bibi's well moussed coiffure. And that will not happen.

 

I don't think you assess the situation correctly here. To a lot of Israeli right-wing extremists like some of the ones who are currently in power, even this charade of a peace process constitutes the US putting too much pressure on Israel, and it's deeply humiliating for them to be forced to play along in this. There are tons upon tons of articles on this matter, you can start with googling what Israel's defence minister has said about the peace process and Obama. And that is an elected official, this is the type of stuff which goes on in civil life. There is in Israel a steadily growing and dangerous ultra-nationalist group with radical settlers at it's core. If you would ask them, they would say that Israel does not need the US for anything and would do better on it's own, and that any amount of UN condemnations would be meaningless. These statements would seem political idiocy to us, but is not a surprising conclusion from a religious and nationalistic crackpot's perspective.

 

Israel trying to foster ties with Russia is a natural effect of this that has been going on for many years now (again, tons of news on this), also in part due to the significant amount of Israelis which are immigrants from Russia. That said, I really don't know how Russia is going to respond to these efforts in the end, if they will be successful.

[obyknven]

Old good classics can perfectly explain what happened in Ukraine.

 

This text is an abridged version of Theotonio Dos Santos' paper
"The Structure of Dependence", as printed in THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC
REVIEW, vol. 60 (May 1970).( With Theotonio's permission. Róbinson Rojas)

http://www.rrojasdatabank.info/santos1.htm

 

Seven loose pieces of the global jigsaw puzzle: Subcomandante Marcos

http://infochangeindia.org/other/world-social-forum/seven-loose-pieces-of-the-global-jigsaw-puzzle-subcomandante-marcos.html

[213374U]

Now if Israel had been fully occupied during the 1973 war, it would likely had become a non-democratic country with close Comintern ties, because of the ideologies of the invading countries and the general pro-Comintern sentiments among the parties such as PFLP which were in vogue at the time.

 

Just a quick clarification: Comintern as such was disbanded by Uncle Joe in 1943. By the 70's there was no international forum or umbrella organization for commies to rally to—it was either straight up pro-Soviet, or pro-Chinese.

[sorophx]

I'm much more concerned that Russia is using, again, bullying tactics to influence Ukraine to be aligned to them by increasing the price they pay for gas from Russia

 

http://dailyenergydump.com/2014/04/01/russia-tightens-energy-screws-angers-ukraine/

 

I had reservations about you, but now I clearly see you're a troll 

 

Ukraine is free to cut the pipe and get gas from somewhere else. you confuse bullying with protecting one's economic interests. If I had a neighbor who shat on my doorstep from time to time and at the same time used my electricity by plugging into my PS, would it be bullying to at least demand payment for some of the electricity he burns that I pay out of my pocket for? that's being considerate 

Edited April 3, 2014 by sorophx

[Tagaziel]

Ukraine is free to cut the pipe and get gas from somewhere else. you confuse bullying with protecting one's economic interests. If I had a neighbor who shat on my doorstep from time to time and at the same time used my electricity by plugging into my PS, would it be bullying to at least demand payment for some of the electricity he burns that I pay out of my pocket for? that's being considerate

No, no they aren't. I don't know what kind of world you inhabit, but countries don't shut down pipelines and get gas from somewhere else at a whim.

 

Russia isn't protecting its economic interests, it's trying to force Ukraine back under the skirt of Mother Russia as a satellite state. Failing that, it will rip Ukraine apart until it gets all of its strategic resources under control and then leave the bloody carcass to rot.

 

Last, your analogy is pretty much completely off. If an accurate analogy would be in Moldova, relative to Ukraine, you're in Australia. Ukraine isn't stealing Russian gas, it's buying it from RusFed. When Ukraine detaches itself from the Soviet, pardon, Russiansphere of influence, Russia retaliates by occupying and annexing Crimea, concentrating troops on the borders in a thinly veiled threat, and jacking up gas prices.

[obyknven]

 

No, no they aren't. I don't know what kind of world you inhabit, but countries don't shut down pipelines and get gas from somewhere else at a whim.

 

Russia isn't protecting its economic interests, it's trying to force Ukraine back under the skirt of Mother Russia as a satellite state. Failing that, it will rip Ukraine apart until it gets all of its strategic resources under control and then leave the bloody carcass to rot.

 

Last, your analogy is pretty much completely off. If an accurate analogy would be in Moldova, relative to Ukraine, you're in Australia. Ukraine isn't stealing Russian gas, it's buying it from RusFed. When Ukraine detaches itself from the Soviet, pardon, Russiansphere of influence, Russia retaliates by occupying and annexing Crimea, concentrating troops on the borders in a thinly veiled threat, and jacking up gas prices.

 

Lol, you can't into capitalism. If some poorfag can't pay money for trade goods then he can GTFO.  All these whining of beggars about too high price (485 $ for Ukraine vs 580 $ for Poland) can impress only Soviet States of Murica. Anyway these poor Ukrainians don't pay for gas ( debt 2 billions $  ) and soon Russia just cut gas for them. Nothing personal, just business.

 

[sorophx]

bleh, I just deleted a wall of text in reply to you. not worth it, I have better things to do than provide perspective from a person who's lived in Russia, Ukraine, PMR, Romania and Moldova and knows the score better than any of you

[obyknven]

IMF chief Christine Lagarde on removing hurdles from a strong global economy 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/imf-chief-lagarde-hurdles-blocking-economic-growth/

 

CHRISTINE LAGARDE: The economy of Ukraine was going in the wall and was heading for disaster.

It’s an economy that needed reforms, that needed profound transformation of its fiscal policy, of its monetary policy, and of its policies on energy, to mention only the key ones. Without the support that they were getting from this lifeline that Russia had extended a few months ago, they were heading nowhere.

We save Ukraine few months ago... and these bastards betray us after this.  Russia make decision send them GTFO and cancel all  privileges  for Ukraine at last. Why some strange Western people have butthurt from this? No-no, fate of this small corrupt country is not our problem more, this is EU and US area of ​​responsibility now .

[BruceVC]

bleh, I just deleted a wall of text in reply to you. not worth it, I have better things to do than provide perspective from a person who's lived in Russia, Ukraine, PMR, Romania and Moldova and knows the score better than any of you

 

With all due respects its irrelevant where you have lived, you obviously don't understand the reality of why Russia is doing what they are doing around inflating gas prices. Tagaziel is 100 % correct.

 

Also the actual infrastructure that carries the gas comes primarily from Russia so its not just a simple case of Ukraine saying " that's okay, we will just use gas from another country" because the pipes and mechanisms to get the gas to Ukraine don't exist

Edited April 3, 2014 by BruceVC

[sorophx]

like I said, you know what you know by reading the news. I know what I know because I witness a lot of it on several levels (have family members working as executives in Gazprom). I'm not saying I know every little detail. I'm saying you are missing a lot of stuff so passing judgement you look rather ridiculous 

[BruceVC]

like I said, you know what you know by reading the news. I know what I know because I witness a lot of it on several levels (have family members working as executives in Gazprom). I'm not saying I know every little detail. I'm saying you are missing a lot of stuff so passing judgement you look rather ridiculous 

 

That's okay I don't mind looking ridiculous because then I'll be the same as most of the other people partaking in this debate

[obyknven]

Menawhile West begin sanctions against citiezens of Crimea

http://www.flightworx.aero/aviation-news-events/ukraine-route-closures-message

 

Eurocontrol is strictly following ICAO Convention on International Civil Aviation and will not recognise any unilateral declaration of air navigation service provision over any part of Ukrainian airspace other than from the Ukrainian authority.

A number of routes are closed WIE-UFN as well as UKFF (Simferopol) and UKFB (Sevastopol) airports.

Yeah, West trying punish Crimeans for their choice. Looks like this referendum represent real wishes of Crimean people and West can't forgive this to them.

[obyknven]

Mcdonald’s suspends work in Crimea
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_03/Mcdonald-s-suspends-work-in-Crimea-9318/

 

 Crimeans must be happy. Do want similar thing in other Russian towns. All other junkfood sellers ( KFC, Starbucs, Burger King, Subway ) must support sanctions also and close all own "restaurants" (hundrets of them)

[Zoraptor]

With all due respects its irrelevant where you have lived, you obviously don't understand the reality of why Russia is doing what they are doing around inflating gas prices. Tagaziel is 100 % correct.

 

Tagaziel would complain if Russia gave the gas away for free since it would- obviously- be an attempt to curry favour and then reestablish the old soviet empire!

 

I had reservations about you, but now I clearly see you're a troll 

 

Ah, you must have been avoiding the SJW/ Romance threads then. Most sensible.

[BruceVC]

 

With all due respects its irrelevant where you have lived, you obviously don't understand the reality of why Russia is doing what they are doing around inflating gas prices. Tagaziel is 100 % correct.

 

Tagaziel would complain if Russia gave the gas away for free since it would- obviously- be an attempt to curry favour and then reestablish the old soviet empire!

 

I had reservations about you, but now I clearly see you're a troll 

 

Ah, you must have been avoiding the SJW/ Romance threads then. Most sensible.

 

 

 

 

"Tagaziel would complain if Russia gave the gas away for free since it would- obviously- be an attempt to curry favour and then reestablish the old soviet empire!"

 

You funny Zora but there is some truth in that statement if it ever happened which it won't  ...but I'm not a Troll. I stand by what I say on various issues because I believe it