Chinese expansionism

[Walsingham]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-25144465

 

China has declared a section of sea (long disputed) as subject to its air traffic control as some sort of 'emergency' safety measure.

 

This seems to me a deliberate attempt to ramp up pressure on an outgoing US president before local self-defence initiatives between countries like Japan and Vietnam can prove resistant to China in their own right.

 

The whole thing feels like something out of the 1970s.

 

I've got a bad feeling about this.

 

And not just because it reminds me of those terrifyingly itchy trousers.

[BruceVC]

I've been following this story. Don't be worried about this development, it may seem like a belligerent move by the Chinese but they aren't going to go to war over some islands which there newly declared zone puts in disputed territory. But it does highlight once again the bizarre thinking and motives of the Chinese. Why declare this air zone in the first place, what's the point and purpose

[Zoraptor]

China Strong! distraction from domestic problems, much like Spain with Gibraltar or Argentina with the Falklands with some wang waving and asserting their power thrown in.

 

In some ways it's short sighted as they have simultaneous disputes with pretty much every single neighbour, but they're China so they don't really need to care. And I don't see anything much happening either, not much happened when that US spy plane and a Chinese fighter collided a few years ago and people actually died in that incident.

[Walsingham]

On consideration I'd argue that this is China belatedly waking up to the fact that they need to be a naval power, not a land power. Virtually all their economic development, and a massive amount of their food production is based around ports and the riverine coast.

 

Given their trading power it makes considerable sense to have a stronger navy.

 

Unfortunately this kind of wang waving (thanks for saying it first, Zor) is precisely how they should NOT be going about it. It merely gives regional powers greater incentives to try to lock down China's maritime access corridors.

[HoonDing]

There's similar bruhaha between Morocco and Spain over a couple of rocks.

[Orogun01]

For a while when this dispute first began I thought it could possibly lead to WWIII but now is more like them flexing their muscles and testing each other's strength.

[Gorth]

It's like the long ignored kid in class that eventually decides to raise his and say "Hey, I'm here too!"

 

Maybe somebody finally got to the letter 'G' in the politicians 101? (G for Geopolitics).

[BruceVC]

It's like the long ignored kid in class that eventually decides to raise his and say "Hey, I'm here too!"

 

Maybe somebody finally got to the letter 'G' in the politicians 101? (G for Geopolitics).

 

Mankind stared in awe and enthrallment as once again profound and tenebrous wisdom was uttered by the omnipotent GORTHFUCIUS. He then returned to his eternal slumber....until the next great cataclysm required his sagacious insight

[obyknven]

Chinese military treat make me lol. At least this country don't looks so warmongering as US and NATO satellites is.

 

[BruceVC]

Chinese military treat make me lol. At least this country don't looks so warmongering as US and NATO satellites is.

 

 

Its important and necessary that the USA has the most powerful and well trained military in the world so they can destroy and conquer Russia if necessary. You should be thankful for this Oby, imagine how great it will be for you living in a Western country where peoples civil rights are respected

Edited November 29, 2013 by BruceVC

[obyknven]

Its important and necessary that the USA has the most powerful and well trained military in the world so they can destroy and conquer Russia if necessary.

 

 They can't. They don't have such possibility ( in other case US destroy and conquer Russia long ago ). US military forces not for war against technically advanced enemy (for this task they must have quite different weaponry), but against low-tech military forces of Third World.

[BruceVC]

 

Its important and necessary that the USA has the most powerful and well trained military in the world so they can destroy and conquer Russia if necessary.

 

 They can't. They don't have such possibility ( in other case US destroy and conquer Russia long ago ). US military forces not for war against technically advanced enemy (for this task they must have quite different weaponry), but against low-tech military forces of Third World.

 

 

But Oby the Russian army couldn't even defeat the Chechen's and they had years to do this? How do you possibly think Russia could win against a country that has been at war for the last 13 years and has the most skilled, experienced and battled hardened military force in the world

Edited November 29, 2013 by BruceVC

[Walsingham]

Russia is as strategically unconquerable as it is strategically irrelevant, and vice versa.

 

The simple fact is that the Earth is governed on maritime lines, because they define the most mechanically efficient mechanism of trade and logistics. The railway - as Russian authorities themselves affirmed with the Trans-Siberian - made some difference. But railways are never as efficient as sea or river. The Russian navy will always be at a huge disadvantage to any genuinely maritime power. It lacks access, production, maintenance, training... the list goes on.

 

The United States, on the other hand, is a large land mass which ALSO has plenty of maritime connections AND has adequate internal lines of communication. the former permits prosperity, while the latter gives mass. It need not depend on the sea for survival, but it does need it for prosperity. It is therefore obliged to maintain the capacity to power project to any point impacting its maritime trade. Hence all the bases and carrier battle groups.

 

Or to put it another way, all those planes and ships aren't leeching money any more than home insurance leeches money.

[Hiro Protagonist]

 

 

But Oby the Russian army couldn't even defeat the Chechen's and they had years to do this? How do you possibly think Russia could win against a country that has been at war for the last 13 years and has the most skilled, experienced and battled hardened military force in the world

 

 

I think what Oby is saying is the U.S. has been fighting a war against a third world country and they still haven't won. Even after 13 years which is longer than WW1 and WW2 combined.

[Walsingham]

 

 

 

But Oby the Russian army couldn't even defeat the Chechen's and they had years to do this? How do you possibly think Russia could win against a country that has been at war for the last 13 years and has the most skilled, experienced and battled hardened military force in the world

 

 

I think what Oby is saying is the U.S. has been fighting a war against a third world country and they still haven't won. Even after 13 years which is longer than WW1 and WW2 combined.

 

 

They haven't been fighting a third world country. They've been trying to fight an insurgency WITHOUT fighting the country it's in.

[Hiro Protagonist]

 

 

They haven't been fighting a third world country. They've been trying to fight an insurgency WITHOUT fighting the country it's in.

 

 

The Taliban was an insurgency and not a Government in 2001?

Edited November 29, 2013 by Hiro Protagonist

[Kroney]

If you look at the map, the reasons behind fighting over these few bare rocks is pretty clear. China needs a clear sea lane from its coastal waters out to the South China Sea and thence the Pacific. If Japan/Taiwan manage to lay claim to them, that entire avenue out to the sea will be owned by democratic, capitalist countries inimicable to Chinese military expansion. Thus, those islands are critical to China being able to move into that area without passing through Japanese/Taiwanese home waters.

 

Whatever either side are using as an excuse, it's a pretty clear cut projection of power situation. One side wants to expand their sphere of influence, the other wants to contain them.

 

I learned this **** on Europa Universalis.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Kroney

[Gorgon]

The dynamics are changing. Japan has come to realize that it can't depend on the US forever and is starting to spend to try and match the acceleration in Chinese defense spending. The issue of the constitution is irrelevant here, we don't imagine Japan invading anyone, but it does signal an end to the meekness characterizing Japan's defense posture following occupation and close cooperation with the US.  Meanwhile the Chinese don't understand why they shouldn't be able to bully their smaller neighbors like Russia. It's a bluff of course, for now, but it's part of a resurgent romanticism about realizing a lost 'golden age', that China should be 'restored' to its rightful position.  

 

I think we can expect to see Chinese military exercises in conjunction with hyperbolic 'emergency' statements like these. A bite North Korean with the theatrics. Not quite as crazy of course.

[Rostere]

I think that Japanese power and influence is diminished by the fact that they don't have a permanent seat on the UNSC. You don't hear their opinion on international matters very often, even though they are one of the world's dominant economic powers.

 

When you combine the current circumstances in Asia, China would be poised to be a regional leader, benefactor and Asia's foremost representative in international disputes. It's surprising that they don't attempt (harder) to settle territorial disputes in the region, and establish themselves as honest peace-brokers. They have enough potential for power as it is, and it would be better for them to have friendly neighbours. Whenever China becomes a real democracy, or really more democratic in any way, they are going to have enough trouble as it is keeping their own country together (compare USSR and Russia).

 

I think that Germany's role in the EU is a pretty good example of how a regional power can have a positive role in the development of their local neighbourhood.

[Gorgon]

There never was any united regional Asian group of nations for historical reasons. I imagine it's too late now. I also don't think the movement towards democracy is inevitable. It's a perception grounded in western ideology and the notion that scientific and political progress is supposed to go hand in hand.  

[obyknven]

Bit of curious thing. US, Japanese and South Korean warplanes ignore East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone. After this Russian joke about "Last Chinese warning" become again popular.

http://readymadeanswers.com/index.php?newsid=19040

 

 

The origin of this ironic expression, which enjoys great popularity due to the events of half a century ago, namely the US-China Relations (1950 - 1960 th year) related to the Taiwan question.

While the U.S. had no diplomatic relations with Mao's China, but acknowledged the regime of Chiang Kai-shek, the repressed in Taiwan. The situation in the Taiwan Strait was extremely tense. U.S. aircraft conducted reconnaissance flights, disrupting air and water space of China. For each such violation the Chinese government through diplomatic channels, sends a "warning" to the American side, but concrete action is taken. These warnings are numbered. By the end of 1964 the latest warning was already more than 900. These protests were broadcast and the Soviet media. Voiced their Levitan, which, naturally, is not being overlooked wit.

Since 1972, thanks to the Sino-US "Shanghai Communique", a new stage of development of relations between the U.S. and China. Americans finally realize that the Chinese, there is only one China and Taiwan is a part of it. Since then, the phrase "last warning Chinese" lost its political importance in the Russian language has become a household word, meaning barren warning "to the words."

[HoonDing]

Sadly Japan used the wrong plane to troll China.

 

[Meshugger]

Provoking Japan might....backfire. Remember, this is a country that has ninjas, samurais and tentacle porn in their very culture. 

[HoonDing]

And they have an entire contingent of 14 year olds ready to jump into their mechas.

[Rostere]

There never was any united regional Asian group of nations for historical reasons. I imagine it's too late now. I also don't think the movement towards democracy is inevitable. It's a perception grounded in western ideology and the notion that scientific and political progress is supposed to go hand in hand.  

 

Well. As I see it, free markets is a self-reinforcing phenomenon. Large free markets will tend to break up smaller closed markets. I think this is inevitable considering economical forces. You could say the same about free speech: in an increasingly connected world, it will be increasingly hard to shut people off from the global free exchange of ideas. A small closed society will tend to get easier and easier access to this exchange.

 

Now after this I'm more making an assumption, but let's assume that on paper a dictatorship could be just as successful as a democracy, with one important caveat: when things go awry, there is a revolution after which follows a new regime. When things go awry in a democracy, you elect new leaders but the system stays the same. So even if we assume that there are no inherent benefits with a democracy (I think there are, but I'll assume there aren't any, in favour of the opposite side of this argument), democracies will become increasingly common because of simple probability: it's more likely that a revolution replaces a dictatorship with a democracy than, well, a democracy electing a dictator, or a revolution happening in a democracy. Democracies are simply more stable. I think it's a really clear long-term trend, look at how much of the world's GDP is controlled by democratic governments today, compared with historical data. If we further allow proto-democratic governments into the equation the picture becomes even clearer.

 

You will see when China's boom ends, angry people will be out on the street, and chances are they will demand democracy.