Leaked Abbottabad Report

[Rostere]

So, apparently the Abbottabad report, the internal Pakistani report containing the accounts of all Pakistani eyewitnesses to OBL's killing has been leaked. These eyewitnesses include those living with OBL, and the present a very detailed and interesting perspective.

 

The report also contains lots of small interesting details, for example OBL had allegedly written in his will (currently in American possession) that his sons should not seek leadership positions in Al-Qaeda, and OBL at some point fled through Iran, perhaps with the consent of the regime. The report is very critical towards Pakistan, even shockingly alleging that it is possible that OBL must have had support from within the ISI, and that other ISI agents also were paid off by the CIA. Overall it is a unique look at how negligence and cooperation could allow him to be on the run for so long, and at how Pakistan dealt with the American incursion.

 

One page is notably missing, probably cut as to not reveal information which could potentially hurt someone.

 

Here's the direct link: http://webapps.aljazeera.net/aje/custom/binladenfiles/Pakistan-Bin-Laden-Dossier.pdf

 

And here is Al Jazeera's page on the subject: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/spotlight/binladenfiles/

[Walsingham]

So, if he fled with the complicity of Iran then it would make the Iranian-AlQ nexus a bit more credible. I seem to recall the notion being rejected as bunkum a while back. Much like Syrian WMD.

[Agiel]

Another relevant article from the late Christopher Hitchens:

 

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2011/07/osama-bin-laden-201107

 

If you needed any proof that Pakistan wasn't at all serious about fighting Al Qaeda or the Taliban, it's that their troops are stationed at the wrong border.

 

I myself am surprised by the possibility of Iranian assistance being that Al Qaeda is a Sunni outfit (one whose membership largely hates Iran, since a large part of its roster were Saudis), and also given that Iran despite its bluster and its stance on its nuclear program at least sees some benefit in normalisation of relationships with the US.

[Walsingham]

My own view is that the use of proxies - and the delusion that they ARE using the proxies (and not the other way around) is fundamental to big bits of the Iranian state. The Revolutionary guards are the guardians of the Islamic Revolution and they also control the proxies.

 

I can imagine them getting a kick out of shepherding Bin Laden through their turf to Pak.

 

~

 

Complete aside, I looked up Christopher Hitchens, and apparently he was the man who popularised Islamofascism as a term. Weird that I use it, but only barely recognised his name.

Edited July 8, 2013 by Walsingham

[obyknven]

So, if he fled with the complicity of Iran then it would make the Iranian-AlQ nexus a bit more credible. I seem to recall the notion being rejected as bunkum a while back. Much like Syrian WMD.

Yeah, Persian Shia and Zoroastrianists support  ALQ Salafi Arabs.    

[Walsingham]

Link between zoroastrianism and Iranian foreign policy?

[obyknven]

Link between zoroastrianism and Iranian foreign policy?

It's just laughable. Iranians hate Arabs and Salafi too much.  Awaiting new reports about ALQ in North Korea ( or on Mars ).  Do want moar crazy bull****.

Edited July 9, 2013 by Gorth
Language

[Rostere]

I don't think Iran actively supports Al Qaeda (I take it to be almost impossible considering what is happening in Syria right now, for example), but I find it interesting that they might have caught him (and/or close relatives), and then released them. I think of it as the same kind of connection there was between Lenin and Imperial Germany, for example. Of course OBL just ended up sitting on his arse doing nothing, but that's a different story.

 

But the most interesting thing in the report, as I have said earlier, is the staggering negligence/incompetence of the ISI and also Pakistani civil authorities. I knew Pakistan was a broken and corrupt country but this report make it sound like it's even worse.

[Zoraptor]

There are very few Zoroastrians still in Iran.

 

Iran helping AlQ in anything other than an enemy-of-my-enemy sense is ridiculous though. They might let ObL through their territory either deliberately or through some officials being bribed, but they're fighting AlQ offshoots (supported by the US, another enemy of enemy situation) both in a low grade insurgency in their own country and in Iraq/ Syria.

 

And everyone knew Syria had WMDs, the only confirmed usage so far by independent sources- rather than USKFR sources that just happened to appear once the rebels started losing and they wanted to arm their AlQ affiliated proxies totally not AlQ affiliated proxies against Iran's proxies- is the rebels, some of whom have form for it (see Bani Walid).

 

Pakistani officials being two faced, incompetent and corrupt plus far more concerned with India than with islamic extremists should surprise no one- and I doubt any Pakistanis would be even slightly surprised.

[Gorth]

If ISI could have done it, I'm sure they would have loved to ship off OBL to Kashmir and stir up the flames there.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Considering that it's well known Pakistan sponsors the Haqanni network in Afghanistan, any treachery on their part shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

[Rostere]

Considering that it's well known Pakistan sponsors the Haqanni network in Afghanistan, any treachery on their part shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

 

It shouldn't be, but what is their motivation? It would seem pointless when they receieve so much money from the US. As far as I know they get nothing from their (indirect) operations in Afghanistan. Also, if we all know that at least large parts of Pakistan including the ISI are either ignoring or actively working against US interests, why does the "alliance" continue?

 

And why was the US so slow to act on their Pakistani intelligence? The report made clear that the US had good evidence already in 2010 that OBL was inside that building.

 

It all seems so idiotic. You'd almost think the US are actively trying to create future enemies.

[Gorth]

It all seems so idiotic. You'd almost think the US are actively trying to create future enemies.

Good geopolitics says you should always keep some manageable enemies and crisis' at hand for emergencies.

[Calax]

ALso in that report

 

A pakistani cop pulled Osama and his bodyguards over for speeding and didn't recognize (or was paid off) Osama.

[BruceVC]

There are very few Zoroastrians still in Iran.

 

Iran helping AlQ in anything other than an enemy-of-my-enemy sense is ridiculous though. They might let ObL through their territory either deliberately or through some officials being bribed, but they're fighting AlQ offshoots (supported by the US, another enemy of enemy situation) both in a low grade insurgency in their own country and in Iraq/ Syria.

 

And everyone knew Syria had WMDs, the only confirmed usage so far by independent sources- rather than USKFR sources that just happened to appear once the rebels started losing and they wanted to arm their AlQ affiliated proxies totally not AlQ affiliated proxies against Iran's proxies- is the rebels, some of whom have form for it (see Bani Walid).

 

Pakistani officials being two faced, incompetent and corrupt plus far more concerned with India than with islamic extremists should surprise no one- and I doubt any Pakistanis would be even slightly surprised.

 

 

 

Considering that it's well known Pakistan sponsors the Haqanni network in Afghanistan, any treachery on their part shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

 

It shouldn't be, but what is their motivation? It would seem pointless when they receieve so much money from the US. As far as I know they get nothing from their (indirect) operations in Afghanistan. Also, if we all know that at least large parts of Pakistan including the ISI are either ignoring or actively working against US interests, why does the "alliance" continue?

 

And why was the US so slow to act on their Pakistani intelligence? The report made clear that the US had good evidence already in 2010 that OBL was inside that building.

 

It all seems so idiotic. You'd almost think the US are actively trying to create future enemies.

 

 

The political situation within Pakistan is opaque and complicated. As mentioned the are several factions and groups within the Pakistan government that have ideological support for Al-Qaeda. But we also know that Pakistan has been targeted many times within its own borders by Islamic extremists so its not  a clear cut situation of Pakistan supporting Al-Qaeda. The USA continues to support Pakistan financially because there is a real threat that the country may become both financially and politically destabilized and into this vacuum a more anti-western and fundamentalist political group would come to power. What would make this even worse is that Pakistan is a nuclear power so imagine  the likes of the Taliban running the country, this would be a very concerning and dangerous situation.

 

The USA knows that certain people within the Pakistan security forces are aligned with Al-Qaeda and OBL and if they had made the fact they were about to do the raid official he would have been warned and quite possibly he could have escaped again. This was a risk they couldn't take and I agree with the surreptitious operation they followed. Under the circumstances it was the best option. The USA  popularity in Pakistan can't get much lower anyway

[Walsingham]

No-one I've ever spoken to knows what makes elements in Pakistani government support Al Qaeda. I would suggest that (as many authors have suggested already) that nations can basically go nuts when it comes to certain issues.

 

Toxic pride combines with an equally toxic unwillingness to address real problems. Argentina and the Falklands is another example.

 

Years ago I did meet a Pakistani major visiting the UK. He had about the saddest face I think I've ever seen.

[BruceVC]

No-one I've ever spoken to knows what makes elements in Pakistani government support Al Qaeda. I would suggest that (as many authors have suggested already) that nations can basically go nuts when it comes to certain issues.

 

Toxic pride combines with an equally toxic unwillingness to address real problems. Argentina and the Falklands is another example.

 

Years ago I did meet a Pakistani major visiting the UK. He had about the saddest face I think I've ever seen.

 

Yeah I think the Pakistan government and military faces a most invidious task in trying to reconcile the various religious and political factions within the country. I can completely understand any frustration around trying to deal with some of these groups and there objectives.

[Walsingham]

Maybe we're over-thinking it? Maybe it's like you get some proper racists in the British Army, but instead of them getting arrested or thrown out, the Paks can't get rid of theirs. So they use their contacts to aid equally poisonous bastards outside the Forces?

[Rostere]

Another thing which bothers me is that Pakistan has nuclear weapons...

 

When the US achieves the military precision to safely take them out of operation before an eventual invasion, it will be rather justifiable to attack Pakistan if they happen to have a bonkers regime at the moment, which according to the report could happen very soon if extremist groups are allowed to run rampant - IF it weren't for the Army (also very corrupt and meddling in civilian affairs), which in turn is the prime target for US aid... So I really have the feeling that by bribing certain elements of the Pakistani power structure, the nation is prevented from an imminent collapse. Withdraw that support and either the Army or the Taliban (with insider support) will destroy the fragile democracy overnight.

 

ALso in that report

 

A pakistani cop pulled Osama and his bodyguards over for speeding and didn't recognize (or was paid off) Osama.

 

Urgh...

 

I hate to link to the same news source all the time, but here's AlJ own take on the matter of Pakistani complicity.

Edited July 9, 2013 by Rostere

[Zoraptor]

No-one I've ever spoken to knows what makes elements in Pakistani government support Al Qaeda. I would suggest that (as many authors have suggested already) that nations can basically go nuts when it comes to certain issues.

When it comes down to it it is probably because the Taleban was one of the (few) absolutely raging successes that the ISI has ever had- and are to a large extent linked to AlQ. They were sponsored by and originated in (refugee camps in) Pakistan and took over most of Afghanistan very rapidly. Given that Afghanistan had a lot of competing interests in it even in the 90s- Iran in the west, the various ex soviet 'stans and Russia in the north and Pakistan itself in the east getting their proxy to the pinnacle so rapidly and near completely was quite an achievement. It'd also deflect and defuse some of their internal problems with extremists if they were sponsoring the Afghan Taleban and not so actively antagonistic to AlQ since they can just send them off into Afghanistan rather than have them make trouble in Pakistan itself. Basically the Pakistanis know that the west will not be in Afghanistan indefinitely and want to hold onto influence with their old trumps.

[Walsingham]

I think it's more to do with a sense of 'honour', and having independence from the US and India even if it kills them.

 

That Hitchens article Agiel linked to has been bouncing around my consciousness all day like a fifty pence piece in a tumbledryer full of jeans.

 

Large chunks of the country contain men who genuinely think that the correct approach to honour is to respond to rape by murdering the woman. Get your head inside that perspective and frankly all bets are off. Every time I try I start getting all sorts of anomalous cognition , like: what IS the sound of gingernut biscuits?

[BruceVC]

. Every time I try I start getting all sorts of anomalous cognition , like: what IS the sound of gingernut biscuits?

 

No idea what you mean but it sounds funny

[Rostere]

I think it's more to do with a sense of 'honour', and having independence from the US and India even if it kills them.

 

Increasingly, I think a lot of international political decisions are made by simpletons who act more out of spite than reason.

[Meshugger]

Of all those muslim countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan seems to be the ones having a race to the bottom of cultural development. 

 

...and those guys have nukes :-/

Edited July 9, 2013 by Meshugger

[Walsingham]

 

. Every time I try I start getting all sorts of anomalous cognition , like: what IS the sound of gingernut biscuits?

 

No idea what you mean but it sounds funny

 

 

I was about to say "It's a koan, like the taste of a rainbow." And then I remembered skittles! Damn you, commercialism!