Turkey unrest

[Walsingham]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22741644

 

I apologise, but while I can't remember who it is, I seem to recall some members are Turkish or live in Turkey.

 

I just wondered what the local view is. I don't trust the BBC;s coverage as far as I could kick it when it comes to this kind of 'populist angle' stuff. This could just be a few handfuls of ne'erdowells. 

[melkathi]

A friend of mine lives in Istanbul and she says its really bad.

[Rosbjerg]

I've been in contact with a friend of mine in Ankara. People are dying, fires, lots and lots of teargas and police brutality (beating people to death or crippling them) - according to her it's pretty bad.

[Walsingham]

Stratfor.com make the point that the protests are so far only involving the 'usual suspects'. Until they spread to areas dominated by traditional ruling party supporters then it won't constitute a genuine threat. Because the ruling party really do have a lot of support country-wide.

 

I think it's interesting to see how the reporting works on this issue. Clearly the Beeb and others want another 'Arab' <sic> spring. But for the reason above I don't think they're going to get it. If anything the protests will merely cement support for the ruling party among their core voters. It may even swing support across from moderates.

 

My prediction is that we're going to see a few more days of violence, but without something game changing it will die down.

[melkathi]

 

My prediction is that we're going to see a few more days of violence, but without something game changing it will die down.

 

Very likely.

Though demonstrators seem to have gone beyond "the usual suspects". That is the significance of it having spread past Istanbul. It seems to be more of an urban middle class movement against a government that is most strongly backed by rural (conservative muslim) voters.

[Gorgon]

Turkey was always the exception in Arab states, besides what do they want with another Arab spring. Isn't Turkey demoratic.

[Monte Carlo]

This is what happens when you ban beer.

[obyknven]

On this video good guys beat dangerous terrorists (at least this is holy police of NATO member). Move Along, Nothing to See Here.

http://youtu.be/XThjR-7F0io

[Walsingham]

This is what happens when you ban beer.

We hear men speaking for us of new laws strong and sweet,Yet is there no man speaketh as we speak in the street.It may be we shall rise the last as Frenchmen rose the first,Our wrath come after Russia's wrath and our wrath be the worst.It may be we are meant to mark with our riot and our restGod's scorn for all men governing. It may be beer is best.But we are the people of England; and we have not spoken yet.Smile at us, pay us, pass us. But do not quite forget.

[samm]

I wonder what will become of this... I heard about the thing from the start and it got really bad after police severely abused their power. For a moderate example see obyknven's posting.  As far as I know, the governement massively censored social networks by blocked facebook and twitter in order to "calm the situation" to keep outside appearances and to make coordination between the protesters more difficult. However, reports of agent orange used against the protesters (for whatever reason) are probably false, at least. I saw a handful of protesters on their way home or to a solidarity demonstration in Zürich yesterday.

 

 

Some links on the matter (some material shows violence against the demonstrating people. I'd be grateful if the links would not be censored here, they're important imo)

 

http://occupygezipics.tumblr.com/

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2013/jun/03/turkey-protester-killed-live

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/06/01/world/europe/turkey-protests/index.html

[Oerwinde]

Turkey was always the exception in Arab states, besides what do they want with another Arab spring. Isn't Turkey demoratic.

Its also not Arab.

[Walsingham]

I could point out that Putin isn't averse to a little headstomping or intimidating poltical opponents. But it's redundant on account of oby not being Russian. Just a rather embarassingly transparent troll.

 

~~

 

On topic, I feel bad for the people who have died. It did occur to me that a police over-reaction could be a calculated move to provoke outright dissent by the people and chuck out a party that has been eroding Turkey's secularist identity. But of course those elements were supposed to  have been purged last year.

 

Erdogan appears to have swan'd off on some foreign tour, which sems a calculated gamble. Assume that the protesters will run out of steam, and that the police are professional enough to handle the protests without any key incidents like a shooting or what have you. Then he'll look calm and magisterial. Indeed, he can even use the 'heavy handedness' of the police to justify purging their ranks further.

 

Well played, angry young men. Well played.

 

EDIT: Spoke too soon. Looks like a protester was killed by person or persons unknown in a Southern district.

Edited June 4, 2013 by Walsingham

[Walsingham]

Stratfor update

 

June 4, 2013 | 1403 GMT

Turkey's Confederation of Progressive Trade Unions will join an ongoing public sector labor strike June 5, Hurriyet reported June 4. Members of the union will stop working June 5, gather at the union's building in Istanbul and move to Taksim Square, the site of ongoing anti-government demonstrations. Another labor union, the Confederation of Public Sector Trade Unions, went on strike at noon local time on June 4.

Edited June 4, 2013 by Walsingham

[Walsingham]

Another update from Stratfor.com. Bit dubious about whether they've really captured an Iranian agent. But an unstable Turkey would certainly suit Iran's policy on Syria.

 

Turkish police arrested an Iranian national in connection with violent protests in the Turkish capital, a Turkish government source said June 4, Today's Zaman reported. Identified as Shayan Shamloo, the suspect is believed to have ties to Iranian intelligence.

[samm]

Now apparently anyone even entering the Taksim square "will be treated like a terrorist". Police is denying doctors access to wounded, of which by now there are hundreds. Again, socail networks are / were? only usable via proxies / VPN.

[Walsingham]

I just hope that Turkey doesn't go into full meltdown.

[NOK222]

I just hope that Turkey doesn't go into full meltdown.

Too late

[Walsingham]

 

I just hope that Turkey doesn't go into full meltdown.

Too late

 

 

I hardly think so. It's serious unrest, but i don't see Erdogan wanting to push for bombs and bullets, and tbh I don't think the protesters have the manpower or the mentality to force it from their end.

[melkathi]

 

 

I hardly think so. It's serious unrest, but i don't see Erdogan wanting to push for bombs and bullets, and tbh I don't think the protesters have the manpower or the mentality to force it from their end.

 

 

He has stated that he is considering to call in the army if things don't quiet down.

With the unions joining the protest this week, things don't look to be doing that though. And the police union is unhappy as well, with six suicides and apparently a thousand resignations.

[Walsingham]

 

 

 

I hardly think so. It's serious unrest, but i don't see Erdogan wanting to push for bombs and bullets, and tbh I don't think the protesters have the manpower or the mentality to force it from their end.

 

 

He has stated that he is considering to call in the army if things don't quiet down.

With the unions joining the protest this week, things don't look to be doing that though. And the police union is unhappy as well, with six suicides and apparently a thousand resignations.

 

 

Source on those resignations?

 

I don't know enough about Turkey to guage the significance of the unions either. My feeling is that Erdogan's supporters are likely to be non-unionised. This doesn't threaten his power directly, surely?

 

The man may have claws but he always seems to prefer wits. Just my ill-educated impression. And I think he can weather this storm easily enough with a degree of firm restraint.

[Cultist]

Why the hell they name EVERYTHING Occupy[XYZ]?

[melkathi]

Can't provide you a link. Saw it on the news. Apparently it was part of the longer statement by Sezer that also included the six suicides and the terrible conditions the police are kept under?

RT showed an interview with an anonymous policeman. Can't dig that up though.

 

Indeed, apparently Erdogan's voters are mostly from rural areas, farmers and lower class.

 

What I think will threaten him more than he expected are things like having police stop funeal processions. I doubt Turkey is that different from the rest of the countries around here: beat them, kill them, do whatever you want, but you don't mess with dead people and funerals.

 

Erdogan has not yet shown any indication that "restraint" is part of his vocabulary. Apparently there is now discent within the party as well.

 

It will also be intersting to see how the courts handle this. The AKP under Erdogan has done everything in their power to replace kemalist judges with ones of a more muslim orientation. Same goes for the army. Yet at least in the army, even the new officers will have gone through kemalists schools and training, so that can come 'round and bite him.

Edited June 17, 2013 by melkathi

[melkathi]

Why the hell they name EVERYTHING Occupy[XYZ]?

 

Same reason everyone wears those ridiculous masks from that silly movie.

[Morgoth]

 

http://youtu.be/XThjR-7F0io

 

Turkish Sturmtruppen quelling passive-aggressive, bored-abusive civilian terrorists to maintain happiness and order, I see.

 

Good. The chaos lords must continue to be appeased.

[Morgoth]

Carry on, citizens.