whennextgen? speculation and question

[entrerix]

rambling time...

 

My guess:

 

next gen consoles will be announced in 2012, released in 2013, or perhaps released November/December 2012.

 

 

my goal as a pc gamer is to always have a pc better than the consoles that are out, which virtually guarantees that I can play whatever games are released, on Max or near Max settings. So by that metric, if I wait to upgrade my pc for one year after the nextgen consoles are released, I should be able to get the "right" graphics card for pretty cheap, probably less than $200.

 

so then I am left to wonder, what graphics card is likely to be the best card you can buy, in 3 years, for less than $200?

 

the "right" card for the current generation was probably the 8800gtx or maybe the 9800gtx? (im just guessing here, cause i have a 9800gtx and it seems perfect for my pc gaming needs)

 

so whats it going to be next time? I ask because I want to start shopping for it 3 years early.

 

and yes, I am a

[Tale]

Don't expect a new generation for a little while. Part of the reason Kinect and Move were released was to substitute for a new generation and extend the console's lives.

[entrerix]

I'm feeling pretty confident about my guess. in 1.5-2 years, people will be feeling ready for the next generation and microsoft and nintendo will be there for them. Sony won't release the ps4 until late 2013 or summer 2014 though.

 

kinect etc were released because I bet 5 years ago microsoft was expecting to release the xbox 3 in 2010-2011, and decided to push it out 2 years by releasing the kinect.

[Gorth]

rambling time...

 

My guess:

 

next gen consoles will be announced in 2012, released in 2013, or perhaps released November/December 2012.

Announced 2012... first flawed models released early 2013 (burning down houses due to bad thermal design, poisoning your pets because of leaking cyanide vapors, frying your potted plants with their unshielded radiation etc.), second wave of releases with most life threatening issues fixed released late 2013 and being hopelessly outdated, lagging behind anything from laptops to iPad3 in 2014

[entrerix]

i've certainly seen some commentators claim that the future is going to be (wirelessly) connecting your ipad to your tv and doing all your gaming on that with a wireless controller.

 

I may be inclined to believe that's the future too, but it wont be made by apple, and its going to be 20 years from now, not 3.

 

It's also not a new idea, gibson suggested more or less the same thing 25 years ago (and he probably wasn't the first), we're still waiting for it.

[Humanoid]

The right card for any given generation is the midrange card released by each of the dominant vendors within the last 6-12 months. And with the respective companies rather random approach to product naming, what it'll be called is anyone's guess. Hopefully the 28nm process will be well and truly mature by then however (with 22nm coming in), unlike the fiasco that was the introduction to 40nm.

 

 

Aside, 8800GTX wouldn't have been the right card at the time, the 8800GT (which using convoluted vendor logic came after the GTX) would have been the poster child of that generation. So good was it that the subsequent 8800GTS-512, 9800GT, 9800GTX, 9800GTX+ and 250GTS are basically the same product.

 

A roll-call of the 'right' card, with the benefit of hindsight, over the past several years would read something like: GF4 Ti4200, R9700, 8800GT, R5850. Your call on whether the alternating dominance is a pattern or coincidence, but no one would make any serious bets on the next winner. I will say though that the current mid-range is more crowded than ever and it's hard to go very wrong.

[Morgoth]

Microsoft said they aren't even half through with the 360, and Sony also pressed a 10 year cycle for the PS3, so don't expect new consoles before 2015.

[mkreku]

I actually think Sony's NGP might be the next generation of gaming. A handheld with battery life long enough to cover the commute, and powerful enough so that when you get home, you can connect it to your flatscreen TV and continue playing in your sofa.

[Nightshape]

I actually think Sony's NGP might be the next generation of gaming. A handheld with battery life long enough to cover the commute, and powerful enough so that when you get home, you can connect it to your flatscreen TV and continue playing in your sofa.

 

Except Sony are being rather quiet about how powerful it is... I suppose the GPU seems pretty nice, but who knows what's going off with the CPU, multicore - yes, but how fast I ask you, how fast? The speculation is potential 2GHz, I call that crazy talk.

 

Peoples is actually believing Sony's marketing machine AGAIN! Just like with the PS3, its amazing... Truly amazings.

[mkreku]

It will naturally be underclocked like crazy to preserve battery life. Sony has not suggested otherwise, and there was an article about it on Eurogamer the other week (couldn't find it right now).

 

The best solution would be if the NGP came with a dock. It could load the battery, have a HDMI port, allow for a Dualshock 2 hand control via bluetooth and provide enough power for the NGP to overclock for a higher resolution TV. The screen on the NGP is 960x544 (or something like that), and it would not be impossible for it to raise that resolution while being docked (720p?).

 

If this was the solution Sony had chosen, I would buy it in a heartbeat (and a Dualshock 2 hand control too).

[Nightshape]

It will naturally be underclocked like crazy to preserve battery life. Sony has not suggested otherwise, and there was an article about it on Eurogamer the other week (couldn't find it right now).

 

The best solution would be if the NGP came with a dock. It could load the battery, have a HDMI port, allow for a Dualshock 2 hand control via bluetooth and provide enough power for the NGP to overclock for a higher resolution TV. The screen on the NGP is 960x544 (or something like that), and it would not be impossible for it to raise that resolution while being docked (720p?).

 

If this was the solution Sony had chosen, I would buy it in a heartbeat (and a Dualshock 2 hand control too).

 

I couldn't comment any further... Really I can't.

[Humanoid]

Aren't the next gen TVs supposed to have 4000+ vertical lines or somesuch? Maybe the next gen will coincide with that (except for Nintendo who will probably release their 1080p console at that time, and top the sales chart with it).

 

 

At the same time, I wouldn't be too surprised if they went back to x86 and consumer graphics chips. Even now they're pushing 5760x1080 gaming with single chips, and x86 is like COBOL, it just won't die.

[Labadal]

Microsoft hiring people for their next console.

 

People are saying they are starting work on their new console this year. I personally think they have already started and they are now ramping up development, but I could be wrong.

[Nepenthe]

Aren't the next gen TVs supposed to have 4000+ vertical lines or somesuch? Maybe the next gen will coincide with that (except for Nintendo who will probably release their 1080p console at that time, and top the sales chart with it).

The problem is that even 1080p is starting to push the capacity of the human eye at reasonable TV sizes. I doubt I'll ever be able to fit a TV of the size required to take full advantage of that kind of resolution.

[Humanoid]

Aren't the next gen TVs supposed to have 4000+ vertical lines or somesuch? Maybe the next gen will coincide with that (except for Nintendo who will probably release their 1080p console at that time, and top the sales chart with it).

The problem is that even 1080p is starting to push the capacity of the human eye at reasonable TV sizes. I doubt I'll ever be able to fit a TV of the size required to take full advantage of that kind of resolution.

 

Ah, but with OLED all you have to do is roll your TV onto the wall like wallpaper!

Edited March 8, 2011 by Humanoid

[Nepenthe]

Aren't the next gen TVs supposed to have 4000+ vertical lines or somesuch? Maybe the next gen will coincide with that (except for Nintendo who will probably release their 1080p console at that time, and top the sales chart with it).

The problem is that even 1080p is starting to push the capacity of the human eye at reasonable TV sizes. I doubt I'll ever be able to fit a TV of the size required to take full advantage of that kind of resolution.

 

Ah, but with OLED all you have to do is roll your TV onto the wall like wallpaper!

 

I'm talking about wall space, here.

[Hurlshort]

I could see Nintendo rolling out a new system in two years, but I think the PS3 and Xbox360 have about 4 years left before they are replaced.

 

We are on a bit of a plateau right now, and it's about dang time.

[Niten_Ryu]

4k resolution will probably be enough for the most consumers, as viewing distances vs. wall space will be limited. 4k and something like 70" screens will be perfect for 'em. For computer monitors (professional use, high end gaming), something like 300+ dpi (about the equal of the current iphone 4 dpi) would be enough - IIRC 30" monitor with 8k resolution would be great. So few more generations

[entrerix]

The right card for any given generation is the midrange card released by each of the dominant vendors within the last 6-12 months. And with the respective companies rather random approach to product naming, what it'll be called is anyone's guess. Hopefully the 28nm process will be well and truly mature by then however (with 22nm coming in), unlike the fiasco that was the introduction to 40nm.

 

 

Aside, 8800GTX wouldn't have been the right card at the time, the 8800GT (which using convoluted vendor logic came after the GTX) would have been the poster child of that generation. So good was it that the subsequent 8800GTS-512, 9800GT, 9800GTX, 9800GTX+ and 250GTS are basically the same product.

 

A roll-call of the 'right' card, with the benefit of hindsight, over the past several years would read something like: GF4 Ti4200, R9700, 8800GT, R5850. Your call on whether the alternating dominance is a pattern or coincidence, but no one would make any serious bets on the next winner. I will say though that the current mid-range is more crowded than ever and it's hard to go very wrong.

 

 

this is very helpful, but (and I'm probably wrong here) wasn't the 8800gt a high end card when it was released? or was it a midrange? I thought the midrange cards were the 8500 and the 8600?

 

right now a high end is like the gtx580 and a midrange is a gtx 560?

[Masterfade]

4k? a lot of people can't even tell the difference between 720p and 1080p from the normal viewing distance.

 

I see a lot more benefits from 120hz frame rates than from 4k resolution.

[Humanoid]

The right card for any given generation is the midrange card released by each of the dominant vendors within the last 6-12 months. And with the respective companies rather random approach to product naming, what it'll be called is anyone's guess. Hopefully the 28nm process will be well and truly mature by then however (with 22nm coming in), unlike the fiasco that was the introduction to 40nm.

 

 

Aside, 8800GTX wouldn't have been the right card at the time, the 8800GT (which using convoluted vendor logic came after the GTX) would have been the poster child of that generation. So good was it that the subsequent 8800GTS-512, 9800GT, 9800GTX, 9800GTX+ and 250GTS are basically the same product.

 

A roll-call of the 'right' card, with the benefit of hindsight, over the past several years would read something like: GF4 Ti4200, R9700, 8800GT, R5850. Your call on whether the alternating dominance is a pattern or coincidence, but no one would make any serious bets on the next winner. I will say though that the current mid-range is more crowded than ever and it's hard to go very wrong.

 

 

this is very helpful, but (and I'm probably wrong here) wasn't the 8800gt a high end card when it was released? or was it a midrange? I thought the midrange cards were the 8500 and the 8600?

 

right now a high end is like the gtx580 and a midrange is a gtx 560?

 

I guess my definition is more gamer-midrange as opposed to market-midrange. The difference is probably the $200-$250 mark vs the $100-$150 mark at the moment.

 

Initial G80 series consisted of the 8800 Ultra, 8800GTX, 8800GTS-640 and 8800GTS-320. Then came the revised G92, consisting of the 8800GT which nominally replaced the 8800GTS-320 and the 8800GTS-512 which replaced the 8800GTS-640. The GT was faster than even the 640 as it turns out though, which made it sort of like a mid-range card encroaching on the top-end. Need to remember though that during this era, ATi were struggling so nVidia could price high, at all price points video cards were about 50% dearer than they are now.

 

 

And yeah, gamer mid-range now I guess would be the 560/460-1GB and R68xx (with the R6950 rapidly dropping into the same category). Midrange in the broader market sense would still be the older tech 450/R5770.

[Niten_Ryu]

4k? a lot of people can't even tell the difference between 720p and 1080p from the normal viewing distance.

 

I see a lot more benefits from 120hz frame rates than from 4k resolution.

 

A lot of can't tell difference unless they see TVs side to side (usually in stores). Sometimes they use vague expessions like "it's like looking out from the window" when they see 4k TV or small (but high quality) 1080p TV / monitor.

 

From pixels per inch ( ppi ) point of view it's more clear.

Something like 42" 1080p TV is common (good size for the most living rooms and at that distance most don't notice individual pixels). They could easily go to 70", keep same viewing distance and select 4k TV in the future as ppi are about the same.

 

Smart phones and digital camera displays are really pushing the limits what human eye can see. For example Apple IPhone 4 has higher then 300 ppi (means that's it's really hard to see individual pixels, even at very close range), the same that high quality physical print magazines have used for ages.

[mkreku]

I have a 42" 1080p TV. Whwen I use it as a computer monitor, I have problems reading the text on this forum from my couch. I certainly do not need higher resolution! Unless the TV's of the future are all 120" or something.. :D

[entrerix]

i'd love the next generation to be powerful enough to support more physics engine properties, how cool would it be to have impacts actually be visible in game, or even just see a persons hand actually close around a glass instead of hover 2mm from its edges. It would add a lot to making games less "gamey"

[entrerix]

all you doubters =

 

 

 

 

http://kotaku.com/#!5792165/new-ninten...box-360-and-ps3

Edited April 14, 2011 by entrerix